Florida Gulf Coast Eagles at LSU New Orleans Privateers: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 29, 12:00 AM ETLakefront Arena · at LSU N Orleans

#266FGCUFGCU

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: FGCU and LSU N Orleans
FGCU	This season	NOLA
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NOLA 78–73 · win probability NOLA 65%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 151.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NOLA has more of the edges

FGCU 3, NOLA 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

FGCUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: FGCU 16.0%, NOLA 20.4%. Forced: FGCU 16.4%, NOLA 14.9%

NOLABig

Free throws

Free throw rate: FGCU 29.1, NOLA 46.4. Allowed: FGCU 38.3, NOLA 39.5

FGCUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: FGCU 31.1%, NOLA 35.6%. Defensive: FGCU 71.8%, NOLA 65.5%

NOLASmall

Three-pointers

FGCU hits 33.2% and allows 35.5%; NOLA hits 31.8% and allows 32.4%. Threes are 38.4% and 33.7% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

FGCU has played the 231st-hardest schedule, NOLA the 173rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

FGCUSmall

FGCU offense vs NOLA defense

Offense 259th of 366 against a defense 316th, on the model’s ratings

NOLASmall

Home court

NOLA at home. This season: NOLA 0-0 at home, FGCU 0-0 away

NOLASmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: FGCU 52.0 and allows 53.4; NOLA 49.6 and allows 49.0

NOLASmall

NOLA offense vs FGCU defense

Offense 230th of 366 against a defense 274th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: FGCU plays 69.9 a game (122nd fastest), NOLA 70.2 (110th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: FGCU 25%, NOLA 22%. Transfers in: FGCU 3, NOLA 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	NOLA -4.5	—
Total	—	151.3	—
Projected score	—	FGCU 73.4 · NOLA 77.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NOLA -2.6	—
1H total	70.8	—
1H projected score	FGCU 34.1 · NOLA 36.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FGCU LLWWL	9-23	28%	3-11	—
NOLA WWLWL	19-14	58%	7-4	—

Venue/role: FGCU away; NOLA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
FGCU UUUUU	15-17	47%	14-18
NOLA UUOUU	19-14	58%	15-18

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FGCU	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%
NOLA	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

FGCU

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	@ PEPP	No recent meeting
Dec 7	@ LMU	No recent meeting
Dec 13	vs ALCN	No recent meeting

LSU N Orleans

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 1	@ ARIZ	No recent meeting
Dec 5	vs RGV	L76–95LO
Dec 7	vs AMCC	L61–74LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

FGCU

32 games played

Straight up

14-18

44% wins

Against the spread

9-23

28% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-17

47% overs · avg +1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1844%

L L W W W W L L L L L L W L L L W L L W W L L W W W W L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

9-2328%

L L W W L W L L L L L L W L L L W L L L W L L L L L W L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1747%

O O O U O U O O O U O O U U O U O U O U U U U O O O U U U U U U

6 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@ILL	L 70-113	+29.5	L −13.5	160.5	O 183
Nov 11	vsGASO	L 94-95	-3.5	L −4.5	163.5	O 189
Nov 15	vsUTC	W 91-73	+1.5	W +19.5	152.5	O 164
Nov 19	@SAM	W 77-62	+5.5	W +20.5	154.5	U 139
Nov 24	vsORU	W 93-88	-11.5	L −6.5	153.5	O 181
Nov 25	vsRICE	W 78-63	-5.5	W +9.5	149.5	U 141
Nov 26	vsKENN	L 100-102	-1.5	L −3.5	160.5	O 202
Dec 3	@FIU	L 83-89	-1.5	L −7.5	154.5	O 172
Dec 7	vsFAU	L 76-81	+2.5	L −2.5	150.5	O 157
Dec 14	@UNM	L 59-75	+15.5	L −0.5	159.5	U 134
Dec 20	@UCF	L 80-102	+17.5	L −4.5	161.5	O 182
Jan 1	@CARK	L 83-85	-2.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 168
Jan 3	@UNA	W 72-55	-2.5	W +14.5	147.5	U 127
Jan 8	vsAPSU	L 71-82	-3.5	L −14.5	153.5	U 153
Jan 10	vsLIP	L 77-84	-2.5	L −9.5	157.5	O 161
Jan 15	vsQUC	L 74-85	-1.5	L −12.5	166.5	U 159
Jan 17	vsWGA	W 90-72	-9.5	W +8.5	152.5	O 162
Jan 22	@APSU	L 62-83	+6.5	L −14.5	155.5	U 145
Jan 23	@LIP	L 71-86	+5.5	L −9.5	153.5	O 157
Jan 29	vsUNA	W 72-64	-9.5	L −1.5	147.5	U 136
Jan 31	@JAX	W 68-49	+1.5	W +20.5	136.5	U 117
Feb 5	@EKU	L 74-76	+1.5	L −0.5	154.5	U 150
Feb 7	@BELL	L 65-81	-2.5	L −18.5	151.5	U 146
Feb 11	vsUNF	W 90-81	-13.5	L −4.5	163.5	O 171
Feb 14	vsSTET	W 78-76	-11.5	L −9.5	148.5	O 154
Feb 18	vsJAX	W 86-84	-6.5	L −4.5	136.5	O 170
Feb 21	vsCARK	W 75-71	+1.5	W +5.5	152.5	U 146
Feb 26	@UNF	L 70-76	-6.5	L −12.5	160.5	U 146
Feb 28	@STET	L 63-78	-5.5	L −20.5	150.5	U 141
Mar 4	vsUNA	W 69-58	-8.5	W +2.5	139.5	U 127
Mar 6	vsLIP	W 77-53	+3.5	W +27.5	150.5	U 130
Mar 7	vsCARK	L 63-73	+4.5	L −5.5	144.5	U 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ILL

L 70-113

−13.5

GASO

L 94-95

−4.5

UTC

W 91-73

+19.5

SAM

W 77-62

+20.5

ORU

W 93-88

−6.5

RICE

W 78-63

+9.5

KENN

L 100-102

−3.5

FIU

L 83-89

−7.5

FAU

L 76-81

−2.5

UNM

L 59-75

−0.5

UCF

L 80-102

−4.5

CARK

L 83-85

−4.5

UNA

W 72-55

+14.5

APSU

L 71-82

−14.5

LIP

L 77-84

−9.5

QUC

L 74-85

−12.5

WGA

W 90-72

+8.5

APSU

L 62-83

−14.5

LIP

L 71-86

−9.5

UNA

W 72-64

−1.5

JAX

W 68-49

+20.5

EKU

L 74-76

−0.5

BELL

L 65-81

−18.5

UNF

W 90-81

−4.5

STET

W 78-76

−9.5

JAX

W 86-84

−4.5

CARK

W 75-71

+5.5

UNF

L 70-76

−12.5

STET

L 63-78

−20.5

UNA

W 69-58

+2.5

LIP

W 77-53

+27.5

CARK

L 63-73

−5.5

covered 9didn’t cover 23avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ILL

L 70-113

+22.5

GASO

L 94-95

+25.5

UTC

W 91-73

+11.5

SAM

W 77-62

−15.5

ORU

W 93-88

+27.5

RICE

W 78-63

−8.5

KENN

L 100-102

+41.5

FIU

L 83-89

+17.5

FAU

L 76-81

+6.5

UNM

L 59-75

−25.5

UCF

L 80-102

+20.5

CARK

L 83-85

+11.5

UNA

W 72-55

−20.5

APSU

L 71-82

−0.5

LIP

L 77-84

+3.5

QUC

L 74-85

−7.5

WGA

W 90-72

+9.5

APSU

L 62-83

−10.5

LIP

L 71-86

+3.5

UNA

W 72-64

−11.5

JAX

W 68-49

−19.5

EKU

L 74-76

−4.5

BELL

L 65-81

−5.5

UNF

W 90-81

+7.5

STET

W 78-76

+5.5

JAX

W 86-84

+33.5

CARK

W 75-71

−6.5

UNF

L 70-76

−14.5

STET

L 63-78

−9.5

UNA

W 69-58

−12.5

LIP

W 77-53

−20.5

CARK

L 63-73

−8.5

over 15under 17avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

LSU N Orleans

33 games played

Straight up

15-18

45% wins

Against the spread

19-14

58% covers · avg +3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-14

58% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1845%

W L W L L L L L L W L W L L W L W L W L W W W L W L W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1458%

W L W L L W L L L W L W L L W L W W W L W W W L W W W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1458%

O U U O O U U O O O O O O U O O O O O U U U O O O U U O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@TCU	W 78-74	+21.5	W +25.5	149.5	O 152
Nov 10	@LSU	L 58-93	+19.5	L −15.5	162.5	U 151
Nov 14	@TULN	W 85-63	+11.5	W +33.5	153.5	U 148
Nov 18	@PEPP	L 79-90	+5.5	L −5.5	157.5	O 169
Nov 21	@FRES	L 76-85	+6.5	L −2.5	154.5	O 161
Nov 24	@MSST	L 78-81	+23.5	W +20.5	160.5	U 159
Nov 26	@TTU	L 50-82	+29.5	L −2.5	157.5	U 132
Dec 3	@MEM	L 70-86	+14.5	L −1.5	149.5	O 156
Dec 6	vsHCU	L 76-85	-4.5	L −13.5	140.5	O 161
Dec 8	vsUIW	W 84-83	+1.5	W +2.5	148.5	O 167
Dec 13	@HOU	L 57-99	+32.5	L −9.5	138.5	O 156
Dec 29	@RGV	W 85-69	+6.5	W +22.5	152.5	O 154
Dec 31	@AMCC	L 69-83	+4.5	L −9.5	142.5	O 152
Jan 3	@NWST	L 68-74	-1.5	L −7.5	149.5	U 142
Jan 5	vsETAM	W 83-73	-6.5	W +3.5	150.5	O 156
Jan 10	vsNICH	L 77-90	+3.5	L −9.5	154.5	O 167
Jan 12	@SELA	W 79-76	+2.5	W +5.5	142.5	O 155
Jan 17	vsSFA	L 79-84	+6.5	W +1.5	147.5	O 163
Jan 19	vsLAM	W 89-76	+1.5	W +14.5	144.5	O 165
Jan 24	@MCN	L 63-82	+18.5	L −0.5	156.5	U 145
Jan 27	@NICH	W 80-62	+4.5	W +22.5	157.5	U 142
Jan 31	vsNWST	W 75-64	-4.5	W +6.5	153.5	U 139
Feb 2	@ETAM	W 94-85	-1.5	W +7.5	151.5	O 179
Feb 7	vsRGV	L 76-95	+1.5	L −17.5	151.5	O 171
Feb 9	vsAMCC	W 84-78	+1.5	W +7.5	146.5	O 162
Feb 14	@HCU	L 60-61	+1.5	W +0.5	148.5	U 121
Feb 16	@UIW	W 78-64	+2.5	W +16.5	154.5	U 142
Feb 21	@LAM	W 77-71	+4.5	W +10.5	146.5	O 148
Feb 23	@SFA	W 77-73	+11.5	W +15.5	153.5	U 150
Feb 28	vsMCN	L 63-66	+10.5	W +7.5	150.5	U 129
Mar 2	vsSELA	L 78-82	-6.5	L −10.5	143.5	O 160
Mar 8	vsHCU	W 73-60	-5.5	W +7.5	143.5	U 133
Mar 9	vsAMCC	L 61-74	+2.5	L −10.5	147.5	U 135

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TCU

W 78-74

+25.5

LSU

L 58-93

−15.5

TULN

W 85-63

+33.5

PEPP

L 79-90

−5.5

FRES

L 76-85

−2.5

MSST

L 78-81

+20.5

TTU

L 50-82

−2.5

MEM

L 70-86

−1.5

HCU

L 76-85

−13.5

UIW

W 84-83

+2.5

HOU

L 57-99

−9.5

RGV

W 85-69

+22.5

AMCC

L 69-83

−9.5

NWST

L 68-74

−7.5

ETAM

W 83-73

+3.5

NICH

L 77-90

−9.5

SELA

W 79-76

+5.5

SFA

L 79-84

+1.5

LAM

W 89-76

+14.5

MCN

L 63-82

−0.5

NICH

W 80-62

+22.5

NWST

W 75-64

+6.5

ETAM

W 94-85

+7.5

RGV

L 76-95

−17.5

AMCC

W 84-78

+7.5

HCU

L 60-61

+0.5

UIW

W 78-64

+16.5

LAM

W 77-71

+10.5

SFA

W 77-73

+15.5

MCN

L 63-66

+7.5

SELA

L 78-82

−10.5

HCU

W 73-60

+7.5

AMCC

L 61-74

−10.5

covered 19didn’t cover 14avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TCU

W 78-74

+2.5

LSU

L 58-93

−11.5

TULN

W 85-63

−5.5

PEPP

L 79-90

+11.5

FRES

L 76-85

+6.5

MSST

L 78-81

−1.5

TTU

L 50-82

−25.5

MEM

L 70-86

+6.5

HCU

L 76-85

+20.5

UIW

W 84-83

+18.5

HOU

L 57-99

+17.5

RGV

W 85-69

+1.5

AMCC

L 69-83

+9.5

NWST

L 68-74

−7.5

ETAM

W 83-73

+5.5

NICH

L 77-90

+12.5

SELA

W 79-76

+12.5

SFA

L 79-84

+15.5

LAM

W 89-76

+20.5

MCN

L 63-82

−11.5

NICH

W 80-62

−15.5

NWST

W 75-64

−14.5

ETAM

W 94-85

+27.5

RGV

L 76-95

+19.5

AMCC

W 84-78

+15.5

HCU

L 60-61

−27.5

UIW

W 78-64

−12.5

LAM

W 77-71

+1.5

SFA

W 77-73

−3.5

MCN

L 63-66

−21.5

SELA

L 78-82

+16.5

HCU

W 73-60

−10.5

AMCC

L 61-74

−12.5

over 19under 14avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: FGCU 1, LSU N Orleans 1, even 3

FGCUBetterLSU N Orleans

G E. Brooks TR12.3 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.1 ast Score 47

Even

G K. Singleton TR13.8 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.9 ast Score 50

G D. Williams6.1 pts · 2 reb · 1 ast Score 21

NOLABig

G N. Jones TR14.9 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 65

G G. Washington2.6 pts · 0.2 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

No call

G J. Chretien1.4 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

F G. Tanner2.5 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.8 ast Not ranked

No call

F E. Boudouma5.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 13

C T. Guillouette2.9 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 26

FGCUSmall

F K. Osby4.9 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.2 ast Score 10

FGCUBetterLSU N Orleans

FGCU offense259th of 366 · -8.0

FGCUSmall

NOLA defense316th of 366 · -8.2

FGCU defense274th of 366 · -6.9

Even

NOLA offense230th of 366 · -7.1

Backcourt-4.1 · 3 players

NOLASmall

Backcourt-1.8 · 3 players

Frontcourt-1.2 · 2 players

FGCUSmall

Frontcourt-3.6 · 2 players

Bench-0.7 · 3 players

Even

Bench-1.4 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestFGCU betterNOLA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

FGCU

Guards

E. Brooks30 min · TRD. Williams19 minG. Washington8 minM. McCarthy2 minB. WashingtonNewN. SermpezisNew

Forwards

G. Tanner8 minC. Outlaw2 min · TRB. LucasNewE. BarlowNewC. KoniecznyNewT. WestercampNew

Centers

T. Guillouette13 minJ. Houser6 min · TR

LSU N Orleans

Guards

K. Singleton35 min · TRN. Jones32 min · TRJ. Chretien9 minC. OkeyNewY. OrtizNewS. ParsonNew

Forwards

E. Boudouma18 minK. Osby17 minK. Ratliff9 min · TRW. CampbellNewS. OminuNewE. NwakammaNew

Centers

J. Pace5 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

FGCU76.6 #130

NOLA74.5 #178

Points per possession

FGCU1.10 #138

NOLA1.06 #226

Pace (possessions)

FGCU69.9 #122

NOLA70.2 #110

Shooting

Effective FG%

FGCU52.0 #147

NOLA49.6 #258

3-point %

FGCU33.2 #219

NOLA31.8 #287

3-point attempt rate

FGCU38.4 #202

NOLA33.7 #302

Free throw rate

FGCU29.1 #331

NOLA46.4 #1

Possessions

Turnover rate

FGCU16.0 #135

NOLA20.4 #353

Offensive rebound rate

FGCU31.1 #161

NOLA35.6 #34

Assists per game

FGCU14.5 #115

NOLA12.9 #214

Defense

Points allowed

FGCU78.0 #266

NOLA77.7 #260

Points allowed per possession

FGCU1.11 #254

NOLA1.11 #238

Opponent effective FG%

FGCU53.4 #280

NOLA49.0 #71

Opponent 3-point %

FGCU35.5 #275

NOLA32.4 #86

Turnovers forced

FGCU16.4 #191

NOLA14.9 #301

Defensive rebound rate

FGCU71.8 #73

NOLA65.5 #325

Steals per game

FGCU7.7 #66

NOLA5.8 #258

Blocks per game

FGCU3.4 #153

NOLA3.8 #105

FGCU		NOLA
Scoring
76.6 #130	Points per game	74.5 #178
1.10 #138	Points per possession	1.06 #226
69.9 #122	Pace (possessions)	70.2 #110
Shooting
52.0 #147	Effective FG%	49.6 #258
33.2 #219	3-point %	31.8 #287
38.4 #202	3-point attempt rate	33.7 #302
29.1 #331	Free throw rate	46.4 #1
Possessions
16.0 #135	Turnover rate	20.4 #353
31.1 #161	Offensive rebound rate	35.6 #34
14.5 #115	Assists per game	12.9 #214
Defense
78.0 #266	Points allowed	77.7 #260
1.11 #254	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #238
53.4 #280	Opponent effective FG%	49.0 #71
35.5 #275	Opponent 3-point %	32.4 #86
16.4 #191	Turnovers forced	14.9 #301
71.8 #73	Defensive rebound rate	65.5 #325
7.7 #66	Steals per game	5.8 #258
3.4 #153	Blocks per game	3.8 #105

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

FGCU

14-18 in 2025-26 overall · 10-11 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs C Arkansas63–73
Wvs Lipscomb77–53
Wvs North Alabama69–58
L@ Stetson63–78
L@ North Florida70–76

A week or more of rest.

LSU N Orleans

15-18 in 2025-26 overall · 13-11 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Texas A&M-CC61–74
Wvs Hou Christian73–60
Lvs SE Louisiana78–82
Lvs McNeese63–66
W@ SF Austin77–73

A week or more of rest.

Florida Gulf Coast Eagles at LSU New Orleans Privateers

What could decide it: NOLA has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

FGCU

LSU N Orleans

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

FGCU

LSU N Orleans