Liberty Flames vs St. Thomas Tommies: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 27, 12:00 PM ETTrask Coliseum · Neutral site

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Liberty and St Thomas
LIB	This season	STMN
0-1	Record	0-0
0-1	ATS	0-0
0-1	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LIB 73–72 · win probability LIB 54%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 145.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: STMN has more of the edges

LIB 1, STMN 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

LIB has played the 148th-hardest schedule, STMN the 341st. A record against a soft schedule means less

STMNBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LIB 19.3%, STMN 22.6%. Defensive: LIB 66.9%, STMN 73.4%

STMNBig

Three-pointers

LIB hits 38.6% and allows 37.7%; STMN hits 36.0% and allows 31.7%. Threes are 47.7% and 46.3% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: LIB plays 65.1 a game (343rd fastest), STMN 69.7 (137th). Faster games mean more points

STMNSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: LIB 59.1 and allows 52.7; STMN 58.9 and allows 50.7

LIBSmall

STMN offense vs LIB defense

Offense 192nd of 366 against a defense 138th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LIB 47%, STMN 35%. Transfers in: LIB 2, STMN 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

LIB offense vs STMN defense

Offense 202nd of 366 against a defense 223rd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LIB 13.4%, STMN 14.4%. Forced: LIB 17.0%, STMN 17.0%

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: LIB 31.4, STMN 33.8. Allowed: LIB 27.0, STMN 30.7

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	LIB -1.2	—
Total	—	145.3	—
Projected score	—	LIB 73.2 · STMN 72

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LIB -0.8	—
1H total	68.0	—
1H projected score	LIB 34.4 · STMN 33.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
LIB LWLWL	13-18	42%	0-4	—
STMN WWWLL	15-16	48%	1-3	—

Venue/role: LIB neutral site; STMN neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
LIB OUOOU	18-13	58%	23-8
STMN UUUUU	16-15	52%	21-10

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LIB	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%
STMN	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Liberty

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ UNCW	No recent meeting

St Thomas

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs PRIN	No recent meeting
Dec 5	@ BUCK	No recent meeting
Dec 10	vs UNCA	W80–59WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Liberty

31 games played

Straight up

23-8

74% wins

Against the spread

13-18

42% covers · avg −1.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-13

58% overs · avg +4 pts vs the total

Straight up

23-874%

W W W L L W L W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W L L W L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1842%

W W L L L W L W L W L W W L L W W W L L L W L L L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1358%

O O O O U U U U O U O U O U O U U O O O O U O O U O O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsCOFC	W 90-75	-9.5	W +5.5	145.5	O 165
Nov 9	vsFAU	W 88-68	-7.5	W +12.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 24	vsUVM	W 79-73	-8.5	L −2.5	141.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsTOW	L 69-72	-6.5	L −9.5	137.5	O 141
Nov 26	vsBRAD	L 64-74	-4.5	L −14.5	144.5	U 138
Dec 6	vsCOPP	W 92-50	-30.5	W +11.5	143.5	U 142
Dec 10	@NCSU	L 45-85	+12.5	L −27.5	149.5	U 130
Dec 20	@DAY	W 64-61	+9.5	W +12.5	142.5	U 125
Dec 28	@FIU	W 97-94	-4.5	L −1.5	152.5	O 191
Jan 2	vsKENN	W 81-73	-7.5	W +0.5	158.5	U 154
Jan 4	vsJXST	W 78-69	-9.5	L −0.5	134.5	O 147
Jan 8	@LT	W 72-56	-4.5	W +11.5	135.5	U 128
Jan 10	@SHSU	W 82-74	-1.5	W +6.5	154.5	O 156
Jan 15	vsNMSU	W 73-71	-8.5	L −6.5	145.5	U 144
Jan 17	vsUTEP	W 80-69	-13.5	L −2.5	137.5	O 149
Jan 21	@WKU	W 76-69	-1.5	W +5.5	148.5	U 145
Jan 24	vsDEL	W 67-51	-15.5	W +0.5	134.5	U 118
Jan 29	@MTSU	W 81-65	-1.5	W +14.5	136.5	O 146
Feb 4	@DEL	W 75-69	-10.5	L −4.5	132.5	O 144
Feb 7	vsMOST	W 79-76	-9.5	L −6.5	140.5	O 155
Feb 11	@NMSU	W 77-75	-3.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 152
Feb 14	@UTEP	W 73-64	-6.5	W +2.5	139.5	U 137
Feb 19	vsFIU	W 90-89	-9.5	L −8.5	152.5	O 179
Feb 21	vsWKU	L 73-94	-7.5	L −28.5	147.5	O 167
Feb 26	@KENN	L 65-74	-1.5	L −10.5	152.5	U 139
Feb 28	@JXST	W 81-78	-3.5	L −0.5	139.5	O 159
Mar 5	vsLT	L 71-76	-8.5	L −13.5	136.5	O 147
Mar 7	vsSHSU	W 79-72	-4.5	W +2.5	152.5	U 151
Mar 11	vsMOST	L 69-77	-4.5	L −12.5	142.5	O 146
Mar 17	@GMU	W 77-71	+2.5	W +8.5	141.5	O 148
Mar 21	@NEV	L 63-73	+7.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

COFC

W 90-75

+5.5

FAU

W 88-68

+12.5

UVM

W 79-73

−2.5

TOW

L 69-72

−9.5

BRAD

L 64-74

−14.5

COPP

W 92-50

+11.5

NCSU

L 45-85

−27.5

DAY

W 64-61

+12.5

FIU

W 97-94

−1.5

KENN

W 81-73

+0.5

JXST

W 78-69

−0.5

W 72-56

+11.5

SHSU

W 82-74

+6.5

NMSU

W 73-71

−6.5

UTEP

W 80-69

−2.5

WKU

W 76-69

+5.5

DEL

W 67-51

+0.5

MTSU

W 81-65

+14.5

DEL

W 75-69

−4.5

MOST

W 79-76

−6.5

NMSU

W 77-75

−1.5

UTEP

W 73-64

+2.5

FIU

W 90-89

−8.5

WKU

L 73-94

−28.5

KENN

L 65-74

−10.5

JXST

W 81-78

−0.5

L 71-76

−13.5

SHSU

W 79-72

+2.5

MOST

L 69-77

−12.5

GMU

W 77-71

+8.5

NEV

L 63-73

−2.5

covered 13didn’t cover 18avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

COFC

W 90-75

+19.5

FAU

W 88-68

+3.5

UVM

W 79-73

+10.5

TOW

L 69-72

+3.5

BRAD

L 64-74

−6.5

COPP

W 92-50

−1.5

NCSU

L 45-85

−19.5

DAY

W 64-61

−17.5

FIU

W 97-94

+38.5

KENN

W 81-73

−4.5

JXST

W 78-69

+12.5

W 72-56

−7.5

SHSU

W 82-74

+1.5

NMSU

W 73-71

−1.5

UTEP

W 80-69

+11.5

WKU

W 76-69

−3.5

DEL

W 67-51

−16.5

MTSU

W 81-65

+9.5

DEL

W 75-69

+11.5

MOST

W 79-76

+14.5

NMSU

W 77-75

+7.5

UTEP

W 73-64

−2.5

FIU

W 90-89

+26.5

WKU

L 73-94

+19.5

KENN

L 65-74

−13.5

JXST

W 81-78

+19.5

L 71-76

+10.5

SHSU

W 79-72

−1.5

MOST

L 69-77

+3.5

GMU

W 77-71

+6.5

NEV

L 63-73

−10.5

over 18under 13avg +4 ptslonger = bigger margin

St Thomas

31 games played

Straight up

21-10

68% wins

Against the spread

15-16

48% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-15

52% overs · avg −0.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1068%

L W L W W W L W L W W W W W W W L W W L W W W L W L W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

15-1648%

L L L W W L L W L W W L L L W W L L W L W W W L W L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1552%

O O U U O U O U O U U O O O O O U U O O O U O O O U U U U U U

6 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@SMC	L 58-84	+13.5	L −12.5	141.5	O 142
Nov 8	vsARMY	W 83-76	-18.5	L −11.5	151.5	O 159
Nov 10	@WSU	L 71-81	+2.5	L −7.5	157.5	U 152
Nov 13	vsGB	W 80-61	-13.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 141
Nov 15	@SEMO	W 84-72	-2.5	W +9.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 21	vsUNCO	W 73-72	-4.5	L −3.5	157.5	U 145
Nov 22	vsCSUF	L 80-88	-11.5	L −19.5	162.5	O 168
Nov 23	@PORT	W 76-66	-5.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 142
Dec 3	@MTST	L 74-82	+2.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 156
Dec 7	vsWEB	W 88-65	-7.5	W +15.5	154.5	U 153
Dec 13	@UNCA	W 80-59	-3.5	W +17.5	148.5	U 139
Dec 20	vsUCR	W 92-78	-14.5	L −0.5	152.5	O 170
Jan 4	vsDEN	W 92-88	-11.5	L −7.5	163.5	O 180
Jan 7	vsSDAK	W 99-86	-14.5	L −1.5	162.5	O 185
Jan 10	@ORU	W 82-71	-8.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 153
Jan 15	@UND	W 91-80	-10.5	W +0.5	151.5	O 171
Jan 17	@NDSU	L 65-68	+2.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 133
Jan 22	vsSDST	W 74-69	-6.5	L −1.5	155.5	U 143
Jan 24	@SDAK	W 90-78	-10.5	W +1.5	161.5	O 168
Jan 29	vsUND	L 80-81	-11.5	L −12.5	152.5	O 161
Feb 1	vsKC	W 99-64	-17.5	W +17.5	151.5	O 163
Feb 4	@SDST	W 77-62	+1.5	W +16.5	157.5	U 139
Feb 7	vsORU	W 92-75	-15.5	W +1.5	151.5	O 167
Feb 12	@OMA	L 94-98	-4.5	L −8.5	156.5	O 192
Feb 14	@KC	W 104-64	-12.5	W +27.5	154.5	O 168
Feb 21	@DEN	L 80-82	-3.5	L −5.5	168.5	U 162
Feb 26	vsNDSU	W 84-62	-3.5	W +18.5	155.5	U 146
Feb 28	vsOMA	W 68-53	-11.5	W +3.5	158.5	U 121
Mar 5	vsSDST	W 80-67	-4.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 147
Mar 7	vsUND	L 66-67	-11.5	L −12.5	153.5	U 133
Mar 17	@SEA	L 52-67	+2.5	L −12.5	145.5	U 119

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SMC

L 58-84

−12.5

ARMY

W 83-76

−11.5

WSU

L 71-81

−7.5

W 80-61

+5.5

SEMO

W 84-72

+9.5

UNCO

W 73-72

−3.5

CSUF

L 80-88

−19.5

PORT

W 76-66

+4.5

MTST

L 74-82

−5.5

WEB

W 88-65

+15.5

UNCA

W 80-59

+17.5

UCR

W 92-78

−0.5

DEN

W 92-88

−7.5

SDAK

W 99-86

−1.5

ORU

W 82-71

+2.5

UND

W 91-80

+0.5

NDSU

L 65-68

−0.5

SDST

W 74-69

−1.5

SDAK

W 90-78

+1.5

UND

L 80-81

−12.5

W 99-64

+17.5

SDST

W 77-62

+16.5

ORU

W 92-75

+1.5

OMA

L 94-98

−8.5

W 104-64

+27.5

DEN

L 80-82

−5.5

NDSU

W 84-62

+18.5

OMA

W 68-53

+3.5

SDST

W 80-67

+8.5

UND

L 66-67

−12.5

SEA

L 52-67

−12.5

covered 15didn’t cover 16avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SMC

L 58-84

+0.5

ARMY

W 83-76

+7.5

WSU

L 71-81

−5.5

W 80-61

−9.5

SEMO

W 84-72

+3.5

UNCO

W 73-72

−12.5

CSUF

L 80-88

+5.5

PORT

W 76-66

−13.5

MTST

L 74-82

+8.5

WEB

W 88-65

−1.5

UNCA

W 80-59

−9.5

UCR

W 92-78

+17.5

DEN

W 92-88

+16.5

SDAK

W 99-86

+22.5

ORU

W 82-71

+0.5

UND

W 91-80

+19.5

NDSU

L 65-68

−18.5

SDST

W 74-69

−12.5

SDAK

W 90-78

+6.5

UND

L 80-81

+8.5

W 99-64

+11.5

SDST

W 77-62

−18.5

ORU

W 92-75

+15.5

OMA

L 94-98

+35.5

W 104-64

+13.5

DEN

L 80-82

−6.5

NDSU

W 84-62

−9.5

OMA

W 68-53

−37.5

SDST

W 80-67

−3.5

UND

L 66-67

−20.5

SEA

L 52-67

−26.5

over 16under 15avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Liberty has the better starters

Position by position: Liberty 2, St Thomas 0, even 3

LibertyBetterSt Thomas

G C. Campbell TR12.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 67

Even

G A. Herro5.7 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 57

G E. Sancomb10 pts · 6 reb · 4 ast Score 55

LIBSmall

G H. Tibbits2.7 pts · 1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 24

G C. Campbell TR9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.5 ast Score 31

Even

F C. Bjerke9.2 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 25

G Z. Carter2.9 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 27

LIBSmall

F C. Wilkins TR6.9 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 9

F D. Claussen2 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 50

No call

F J. Lorenz TR2.2 pts · 1.8 reb · 1 ast Not ranked

LibertyBetterSt Thomas

LIB offense202nd of 366 · -6.3

Even

STMN defense223rd of 366 · -5.8

LIB defense138th of 366 · -2.9

LIBSmall

STMN offense192nd of 366 · -5.9

Backcourt-2.8 · 4 players

STMNSmall

Backcourt-1.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.0 · 1 player

LIBBig

Frontcourt-4.0 · 3 players

Bench-1.0 · 5 players

Even

Bench-1.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLIB betterSTMN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Liberty

Guards

C. Campbell35 min · TRE. Sancomb34 minC. Campbell29 min · TRZ. Carter12 minM. SheltonNewE. HerbertNew

Forwards

D. Claussen33 minR. Jones5 minB. Kester3 minD. Grimes3 minT. Drain2 minT. Sorensen2 min

St Thomas

Guards

A. Herro24 minH. Tibbits10 minK. Blue4 min · TRT. Franks3 minT. Humphries2 minA. Tauer2 min

Forwards

C. Bjerke25 minC. Wilkins22 min · TRJ. Lorenz10 min · TRK. Counts4 minL. MomcilovicNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LIB75.8 #146

STMN80.9 #48

Points per possession

LIB1.17 #41

STMN1.16 #45

Pace (possessions)

LIB65.1 #343

STMN69.7 #137

Shooting

Effective FG%

LIB59.1 #4

STMN58.9 #5

3-point %

LIB38.6 #8

STMN36.0 #57

3-point attempt rate

LIB47.7 #28

STMN46.3 #41

Free throw rate

LIB31.4 #273

STMN33.8 #220

Possessions

Turnover rate

LIB13.4 #13

STMN14.4 #37

Offensive rebound rate

LIB19.3 #365

STMN22.6 #353

Assists per game

LIB16.5 #36

STMN16.4 #37

Defense

Points allowed

LIB72.2 #110

STMN73.1 #135

Points allowed per possession

LIB1.11 #234

STMN1.05 #82

Opponent effective FG%

LIB52.7 #251

STMN50.7 #139

Opponent 3-point %

LIB37.7 #353

STMN31.7 #52

Turnovers forced

LIB17.0 #149

STMN17.0 #152

Defensive rebound rate

LIB66.9 #302

STMN73.4 #25

Steals per game

LIB6.2 #218

STMN7.5 #87

Blocks per game

LIB3.3 #178

STMN2.6 #296

LIB		STMN
Scoring
75.8 #146	Points per game	80.9 #48
1.17 #41	Points per possession	1.16 #45
65.1 #343	Pace (possessions)	69.7 #137
Shooting
59.1 #4	Effective FG%	58.9 #5
38.6 #8	3-point %	36.0 #57
47.7 #28	3-point attempt rate	46.3 #41
31.4 #273	Free throw rate	33.8 #220
Possessions
13.4 #13	Turnover rate	14.4 #37
19.3 #365	Offensive rebound rate	22.6 #353
16.5 #36	Assists per game	16.4 #37
Defense
72.2 #110	Points allowed	73.1 #135
1.11 #234	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #82
52.7 #251	Opponent effective FG%	50.7 #139
37.7 #353	Opponent 3-point %	31.7 #52
17.0 #149	Turnovers forced	17.0 #152
66.9 #302	Defensive rebound rate	73.4 #25
6.2 #218	Steals per game	7.5 #87
3.3 #178	Blocks per game	2.6 #296

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Liberty

23-8 in 2025-26 overall · 17-4 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Nevada63–73
W@ George Mason77–71
Lvs Missouri St69–77
Wvs Sam Houston79–72
Lvs Louisiana Tech71–76

A week or more of rest.

St Thomas

21-10 in 2025-26 overall · 13-5 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Seattle U52–67
Lvs North Dakota66–67
Wvs S Dakota St80–67
Wvs Omaha68–53
Wvs N Dakota St84–62

A week or more of rest.

Liberty Flames vs St. Thomas Tommies

What could decide it: STMN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Liberty

St Thomas

Liberty has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Liberty

St Thomas