1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Nov 29
  3. RICE @ ARST
NCAAB · Sun, Nov 29

Rice Owls at Arkansas State Red Wolves

First National Bank Arena · at Arkansas St
#177RICERice
@
#171ARSTArkansas St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
RICEThis seasonARST
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ARST 78–74 · win probability ARST 63%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 151.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ARST has more of the edges

RICE 2, ARST 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
ARSTBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: RICE 35.3%, ARST 38.2%. Defensive: RICE 65.4%, ARST 73.0%
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: RICE plays 67.9 a game (236th fastest), ARST 73.4 (16th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
RICE has played the 116th-hardest schedule, ARST the 221st. A record against a soft schedule means less
ARSTSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: RICE 33.9, ARST 39.1. Allowed: RICE 40.4, ARST 37.0
ARSTSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: RICE 48.5 and allows 51.0; ARST 51.7 and allows 50.3
RICESmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: RICE 17.9%, ARST 19.8%. Forced: RICE 15.7%, ARST 14.9%
RICESmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: RICE 44%, ARST 6%. Transfers in: RICE 3, ARST 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
ARSTSmall
Home court
ARST at home. This season: ARST 0-0 at home, RICE 0-0 away
Even
RICE offense vs ARST defense
Offense 210th of 366 against a defense 252nd, on the model’s ratings
Even
ARST offense vs RICE defense
Offense 122nd of 366 against a defense 163rd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
RICE hits 34.3% and allows 34.0%; ARST hits 32.9% and allows 32.9%. Threes are 44.1% and 44.9% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—ARST -3.9—
Total—151.8—
Projected score—RICE 74 · ARST 77.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadARST -2.2—
1H total71.0—
1H projected scoreRICE 34.4 · ARST 36.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Arkansas St has the better starters

Position by position: Rice 0, Arkansas St 3, even 2
RiceBetterArkansas St
G C. Adkins TR13.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 50
ARSTSmall
G J. Pyke TR12.3 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 83
G C. Carroll6.5 pts · 2.5 reb · 2 ast Score 19
ARSTSmall
G L. Taylor TR8 pts · 2.7 reb · 3.2 ast Score 45
G D. Hobbs4.6 pts · 1.4 reb · 2 ast Not ranked
No call
G R. Blue Smith4.8 pts · 1.5 reb · 1 ast Score 33
F J. Elouna Eyenga TR3.5 pts · 3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 7
ARSTSmall
F A. Doumbia TR3.1 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.2 ast Score 36
F E. Eguagie5.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 24
No call
F D. Muon NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
RiceBetterArkansas St
RICE offense210th of 366 · -6.4
Even
ARST defense252nd of 366 · -6.6
RICE defense163rd of 366 · -3.6
Even
ARST offense122nd of 366 · -3.2
Backcourt-4.8 · 3 players
ARSTBig
Backcourt-0.1 · 3 players
Frontcourt-3.4 · 2 players
ARSTSmall
Frontcourt-0.6 · 2 players
Bench-1.4 · 4 players
No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestRICE betterARST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Rice
Guards
C. Adkins31 min · TRC. Carroll24 minD. Hobbs18 minJ. Dar10 min · TRB. Howell10 minC. Andrews-HeitzNew
Forwards
J. Elouna Eyenga18 min · TRE. Eguagie17 minJ. Oladokun17 minE. Cochran2 minA. LeethNewZ. FlasarNew
Arkansas St
Guards
J. Pyke26 min · TRL. Taylor25 min · TRR. Blue Smith13 minC. WatsonNewT. FergusonNewC. GeathersNew
Forwards
A. Doumbia14 min · TRD. MuonNewG. BennettNewA. MaigaNewR. OmedNewM. SyNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
RICEARST
Scoring
72.0 #240Points per game81.8 #33
1.06 #229Points per possession1.11 #117
67.9 #236Pace (possessions)73.4 #16
Shooting
48.5 #303Effective FG%51.7 #164
34.3 #1533-point %32.9 #240
44.1 #863-point attempt rate44.9 #70
33.9 #214Free throw rate39.1 #78
Possessions
17.9 #265Turnover rate19.8 #344
35.3 #38Offensive rebound rate38.2 #6
11.3 #320Assists per game15.3 #77
Defense
76.8 #235Points allowed78.0 #268
1.13 #294Points allowed per possession1.07 #121
51.0 #160Opponent effective FG%50.3 #117
34.0 #184Opponent 3-point %32.9 #115
15.7 #236Turnovers forced14.9 #298
65.4 #329Defensive rebound rate73.0 #36
6.5 #185Steals per game7.2 #110
3.9 #91Blocks per game2.8 #268
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Rice

11-18 in 2025-26 overall · 7-11 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Wvs UTSA80–71
  • L@ North Texas58–62
  • W@ Temple80–74
  • Lvs South Florida56–75
  • L@ Tulane75–81

A week or more of rest.

Arkansas St

18-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs GA Southern77–80
  • Wvs Louisiana81–58
  • Wvs Southern Miss89–84
  • W@ UL Monroe102–94
  • W@ Louisiana79–62

A week or more of rest.