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  2. Sun, Nov 29
  3. MORE @ ETSU
NCAAB · Sun, Nov 29

Morehead State Eagles at East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Freedom Hall (TN) · at ETSU
#350MOREMorehead St
@
#173ETSUETSU
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MOREThis seasonETSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ETSU 79–64 · win probability ETSU 89%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 143.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ETSU has more of the edges

MORE 1, ETSU 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
ETSUBig
MORE offense vs ETSU defense
Offense 349th of 366 against a defense 140th, on the model’s ratings
ETSUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MORE 18.1%, ETSU 15.2%. Forced: MORE 15.4%, ETSU 18.4%
ETSUBig
Three-pointers
MORE hits 32.0% and allows 34.5%; ETSU hits 34.7% and allows 32.9%. Threes are 30.5% and 37.8% of their shots
ETSUSmall
ETSU offense vs MORE defense
Offense 224th of 366 against a defense 333rd, on the model’s ratings
ETSUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: MORE 49.1 and allows 50.2; ETSU 55.3 and allows 51.0
ETSUSmall
Home court
ETSU at home. This season: ETSU 0-0 at home, MORE 0-0 away
MORESmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: MORE 37.7, ETSU 35.0. Allowed: MORE 35.6, ETSU 36.4
Context
Schedule so far
MORE has played the 346th-hardest schedule, ETSU the 309th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MORE 35.8%, ETSU 28.3%. Defensive: MORE 64.2%, ETSU 72.1%
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: MORE plays 67.4 a game (262nd fastest), ETSU 67.0 (279th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MORE 29%, ETSU 29%. Transfers in: MORE 0, ETSU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—ETSU -14.2—
Total—143.0—
Projected score—MORE 64.4 · ETSU 78.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadETSU -8.3—
1H total66.9—
1H projected scoreMORE 29.3 · ETSU 37.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ETSU has the better starters

Position by position: Morehead St 0, ETSU 2, even 3
Morehead StBetterETSU
G C. Dawson8.1 pts · 1.4 reb · 2.7 ast Score 22
Even
G B. Ward TR11.4 pts · 2.1 reb · 3.6 ast Score 29
G V. Dawson3.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 7
ETSUSmall
G J. Cooper TR11.2 pts · 2.7 reb · 1 ast Score 34
G J. Winkleman1 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
G T. Hennig TR9.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.5 ast Score 24
G I. Day NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
G M. Johnson5.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 28
F C. Parker2.7 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 1
ETSUBig
F J. McCullum7.8 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 49
Morehead StBetterETSU
MORE offense349th of 366 · -12.3
ETSUBig
ETSU defense140th of 366 · -2.9
MORE defense333rd of 366 · -8.7
ETSUSmall
ETSU offense224th of 366 · -6.9
Backcourt-4.4 · 4 players
MOREBig
Backcourt-7.6 · 4 players
Frontcourt-2.7 · 1 player
ETSUSmall
Frontcourt-0.3 · 1 player
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-1.5 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestMORE betterETSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Morehead St
Guards
C. Dawson26 minV. Dawson16 minJ. Winkleman1 minI. DayNewK. CarbonNewK. ShawNew
Forwards
C. Parker16 minD. AlexanderNewL. BassNewT. TangioraNewJ. PriesterNew
ETSU
Guards
B. Ward31 min · TRJ. Cooper31 min · TRT. Hennig25 min · TRM. Johnson22 minT. Mason17 min · TRD. PayneNew
Forwards
J. McCullum22 minB. Crump15 minM. Marion12 min · TRK. CampbellNewE. SmithNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MOREETSU
Scoring
72.0 #243Points per game76.8 #121
1.07 #202Points per possession1.15 #59
67.4 #262Pace (possessions)67.0 #279
Shooting
49.1 #285Effective FG%55.3 #33
32.0 #2813-point %34.7 #132
30.5 #3493-point attempt rate37.8 #216
37.7 #109Free throw rate35.0 #180
Possessions
18.1 #275Turnover rate15.2 #79
35.8 #27Offensive rebound rate28.3 #252
12.0 #285Assists per game13.9 #154
Defense
75.5 #205Points allowed70.1 #61
1.12 #264Points allowed per possession1.04 #77
50.2 #109Opponent effective FG%51.0 #161
34.5 #221Opponent 3-point %32.9 #110
15.4 #259Turnovers forced18.4 #79
64.2 #351Defensive rebound rate72.1 #64
6.0 #234Steals per game8.6 #16
3.0 #213Blocks per game3.3 #180
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Morehead St

17-13 in 2025-26 overall · 16-6 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Tennessee St67–93
  • Wvs SE Missouri66–61
  • W@ Little Rock76–70
  • Wvs Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles64–63
  • W@ W Illinois81–59

A week or more of rest.

ETSU

21-11 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Furman61–76
  • Wvs W Carolina69–67
  • Wvs The Citadel83–76
  • L@ Mercer76–82
  • Lvs Wofford69–72

A week or more of rest.