Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns at UNC Wilmington Seahawks: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 14, 7:00 PM ETTrask Coliseum · at UNC Wilmington

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Louisiana and UNC Wilmington
UL	This season	UNCW
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNCW 76–65 · win probability UNCW 82%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 140.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNCW has more of the edges

UL 1, UNCW 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UNCWBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: UL 28.7, UNCW 40.4. Allowed: UL 45.8, UNCW 31.7

UNCWBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UL 28.4%, UNCW 35.3%. Defensive: UL 67.7%, UNCW 72.4%

UNCWBig

UL offense vs UNCW defense

Offense 292nd of 366 against a defense 119th, on the model’s ratings

UNCWBig

Three-pointers

UL hits 33.6% and allows 35.6%; UNCW hits 35.0% and allows 29.7%. Threes are 40.5% and 38.8% of their shots

UNCWBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: UL 47.1 and allows 52.6; UNCW 50.4 and allows 47.5

UNCWSmall

Home court

UNCW at home. This season: UNCW 0-0 at home, UL 0-0 away

ULSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UL 59%, UNCW 35%. Transfers in: UL 3, UNCW 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UL 16.8%, UNCW 14.9%. Forced: UL 18.3%, UNCW 14.9%

Even

UNCW offense vs UL defense

Offense 131st of 366 against a defense 157th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 65 possessions: UL plays 64.1 a game (359th fastest), UNCW 66.1 (310th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

UL has played the 226th-hardest schedule, UNCW the 228th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UNCW -10.5	—
Total	—	140.6	—
Projected score	—	UL 65.1 · UNCW 75.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNCW -6.1	—
1H total	65.8	—
1H projected score	UL 29.8 · UNCW 36	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UL WLLWL	15-18	45%	6-10	—
UNCW LWLWL	16-16	50%	8-9	—

Venue/role: UL away; UNCW home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UL UOUOO	15-18	45%	11-22
UNCW OUOUO	18-14	56%	25-7

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UL	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
UNCW	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Louisiana

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	@ SF	No recent meeting
Nov 22	@ USC	No recent meeting
Nov 28	vs MCN	L62–88LO

UNC Wilmington

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	@ LIU	No recent meeting
Nov 21	@ NORF	L69–74LO
Nov 25	vs STMN	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UL 0–1 UNCWUNCW leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · UL 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 6, 2025-26	UNCW 70 @ UL 63	UL +12.5	UL W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Louisiana

33 games played

Straight up

11-22

33% wins

Against the spread

15-18

45% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-18

45% overs · avg −0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-2233%

L W L L L L L L L L L L W W L L W L L W L W W W W L L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1845%

L W W L L L L L W W L W W W L L L L W W L W W W W L L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1845%

U U U O O U U U U O U U O U U O O O U U O O U U O O O U U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@BALL	L 64-75	+4.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 139
Nov 7	vsSELA	W 58-52	-3.5	W +2.5	135.5	U 110
Nov 11	vsTULN	L 62-66	+5.5	W +1.5	135.5	U 128
Nov 14	@MCN	L 62-88	+15.5	L −10.5	134.5	O 150
Nov 18	@STAN	L 66-93	+20.5	L −6.5	139.5	O 159
Nov 21	@SCU	L 43-80	+19.5	L −17.5	140.5	U 123
Nov 24	@UCD	L 56-77	+9.5	L −11.5	136.5	U 133
Nov 28	vsJKST	L 45-51	-5.5	L −11.5	136.5	U 96
Dec 3	@LAM	L 55-65	+10.5	W +0.5	129.5	U 120
Dec 6	vsUNCW	L 63-70	+12.5	W +5.5	130.5	O 133
Dec 13	@LT	L 44-65	+9.5	L −11.5	126.5	U 109
Dec 18	@USM	L 54-62	+11.5	W +3.5	132.5	U 116
Dec 20	@ULM	W 76-62	-1.5	W +12.5	136.5	O 138
Dec 28	vsNORF	W 63-54	-3.5	W +5.5	126.5	U 117
Dec 31	vsUSA	L 58-63	+3.5	L −1.5	127.5	U 121
Jan 3	vsUSM	L 67-74	+3.5	L −3.5	129.5	O 141
Jan 8	vsULM	W 85-79	-7.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 164
Jan 10	vsTROY	L 70-90	+9.5	L −10.5	136.5	O 160
Jan 14	@TXST	L 54-59	+8.5	W +3.5	133.5	U 113
Jan 17	@USA	W 59-56	+9.5	W +12.5	129.5	U 115
Jan 22	@APP	L 58-72	+9.5	L −4.5	124.5	O 130
Jan 29	vsGAST	W 82-72	+1.5	W +11.5	129.5	O 154
Jan 31	vsGASO	W 69-60	+2.5	W +11.5	144.5	U 129
Feb 4	@JMU	W 64-61	+9.5	W +12.5	132.5	U 125
Feb 7	vsCMU	W 85-80	-2.5	W +2.5	134.5	O 165
Feb 12	vsCCU	L 65-69	+1.5	L −2.5	132.5	O 134
Feb 16	@ODU	L 72-83	+6.5	L −4.5	135.5	O 155
Feb 19	vsARST	L 62-79	+8.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 141
Feb 21	vsTXST	W 67-54	+3.5	W +16.5	134.5	U 121
Feb 24	@TROY	L 59-78	+11.5	L −7.5	134.5	O 137
Feb 27	@ARST	L 58-81	+13.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 139
Mar 3	vsGAST	W 84-75	+1.5	W +10.5	134.5	O 159
Mar 4	vsJMU	L 72-87	+6.5	L −8.5	134.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BALL

L 64-75

−6.5

SELA

W 58-52

+2.5

TULN

L 62-66

+1.5

MCN

L 62-88

−10.5

STAN

L 66-93

−6.5

SCU

L 43-80

−17.5

UCD

L 56-77

−11.5

JKST

L 45-51

−11.5

LAM

L 55-65

+0.5

UNCW

L 63-70

+5.5

L 44-65

−11.5

USM

L 54-62

+3.5

ULM

W 76-62

+12.5

NORF

W 63-54

+5.5

USA

L 58-63

−1.5

USM

L 67-74

−3.5

ULM

W 85-79

−1.5

TROY

L 70-90

−10.5

TXST

L 54-59

+3.5

USA

W 59-56

+12.5

APP

L 58-72

−4.5

GAST

W 82-72

+11.5

GASO

W 69-60

+11.5

JMU

W 64-61

+12.5

CMU

W 85-80

+2.5

CCU

L 65-69

−2.5

ODU

L 72-83

−4.5

ARST

L 62-79

−8.5

TXST

W 67-54

+16.5

TROY

L 59-78

−7.5

ARST

L 58-81

−9.5

GAST

W 84-75

+10.5

JMU

L 72-87

−8.5

covered 15didn’t cover 18avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BALL

L 64-75

−2.5

SELA

W 58-52

−25.5

TULN

L 62-66

−7.5

MCN

L 62-88

+15.5

STAN

L 66-93

+19.5

SCU

L 43-80

−17.5

UCD

L 56-77

−3.5

JKST

L 45-51

−40.5

LAM

L 55-65

−9.5

UNCW

L 63-70

+2.5

L 44-65

−17.5

USM

L 54-62

−16.5

ULM

W 76-62

+1.5

NORF

W 63-54

−9.5

USA

L 58-63

−6.5

USM

L 67-74

+11.5

ULM

W 85-79

+24.5

TROY

L 70-90

+23.5

TXST

L 54-59

−20.5

USA

W 59-56

−14.5

APP

L 58-72

+5.5

GAST

W 82-72

+24.5

GASO

W 69-60

−15.5

JMU

W 64-61

−7.5

CMU

W 85-80

+30.5

CCU

L 65-69

+1.5

ODU

L 72-83

+19.5

ARST

L 62-79

−3.5

TXST

W 67-54

−13.5

TROY

L 59-78

+2.5

ARST

L 58-81

−7.5

GAST

W 84-75

+24.5

JMU

L 72-87

+24.5

over 15under 18avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

UNC Wilmington

32 games played

Straight up

25-7

78% wins

Against the spread

16-16

50% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-14

56% overs · avg −2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

25-778%

L W W W W W W W W W L W W W W W W L W W L W W W W W W L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1650%

L L W W W W W L L L L L L L W L L L W W L W W W W W W L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1456%

O U U O U O O U O O U O U U O O O U O O O U U U O U O O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 10	@KENT	L 77-86	+3.5	L −5.5	156.5	O 163
Nov 15	vsUPST	W 73-60	-14.5	L −1.5	155.5	U 133
Nov 18	vsECU	W 85-60	-6.5	W +18.5	145.5	U 145
Nov 21	@RAD	W 81-73	-4.5	W +3.5	151.5	O 154
Nov 26	vsSELA	W 70-57	-11.5	W +1.5	137.5	U 127
Nov 28	vsNAVY	W 87-57	-8.5	W +21.5	138.5	O 144
Nov 29	vsGWEB	W 88-62	-18.5	W +7.5	147.5	O 150
Dec 3	vsMRSH	W 70-69	-8.5	L −7.5	150.5	U 139
Dec 6	@UL	W 70-63	-12.5	L −5.5	130.5	O 133
Dec 13	@VAL	W 73-70	-4.5	L −1.5	136.5	O 143
Dec 20	vsHOW	L 66-67	-15.5	L −16.5	141.5	U 133
Dec 29	@NCAT	W 87-78	-10.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 165
Dec 31	vsDREX	W 65-53	-12.5	L −0.5	137.5	U 118
Jan 3	vsHAMP	W 49-45	-12.5	L −8.5	140.5	U 94
Jan 8	@NE	W 87-78	-4.5	W +4.5	142.5	O 165
Jan 10	@STBK	W 75-71	-6.5	L −2.5	133.5	O 146
Jan 17	vsCAM	W 78-75	-6.5	L −3.5	149.5	O 153
Jan 22	@W&M	L 70-77	+2.5	L −4.5	159.5	U 147
Jan 24	@HAMP	W 75-67	-4.5	W +3.5	136.5	O 142
Jan 29	@TOW	W 82-73	+1.5	W +10.5	135.5	O 155
Feb 5	vsW&M	L 78-85	-4.5	L −11.5	159.5	O 163
Feb 9	@COFC	W 76-64	+1.5	W +13.5	148.5	U 140
Feb 12	vsELON	W 65-54	-8.5	W +2.5	149.5	U 119
Feb 14	vsHOF	W 70-66	-2.5	W +1.5	137.5	U 136
Feb 19	vsMONM	W 79-69	-7.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 148
Feb 21	@CAM	W 73-68	-3.5	W +1.5	150.5	U 141
Feb 26	vsNCAT	W 88-65	-13.5	W +9.5	146.5	O 153
Mar 1	vsCOFC	L 76-79	-5.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 155
Mar 3	@ELON	W 76-57	-4.5	W +14.5	145.5	U 133
Mar 8	vsCAM	L 70-85	-6.5	L −21.5	149.5	O 155
Mar 17	@YALE	W 68-67	+4.5	W +5.5	148.5	U 135
Mar 21	vsDAY	L 61-80	+3.5	L −15.5	138.5	O 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

KENT

L 77-86

−5.5

UPST

W 73-60

−1.5

ECU

W 85-60

+18.5

RAD

W 81-73

+3.5

SELA

W 70-57

+1.5

NAVY

W 87-57

+21.5

GWEB

W 88-62

+7.5

MRSH

W 70-69

−7.5

W 70-63

−5.5

VAL

W 73-70

−1.5

HOW

L 66-67

−16.5

NCAT

W 87-78

−1.5

DREX

W 65-53

−0.5

HAMP

W 49-45

−8.5

W 87-78

+4.5

STBK

W 75-71

−2.5

CAM

W 78-75

−3.5

W&M

L 70-77

−4.5

HAMP

W 75-67

+3.5

TOW

W 82-73

+10.5

W&M

L 78-85

−11.5

COFC

W 76-64

+13.5

ELON

W 65-54

+2.5

HOF

W 70-66

+1.5

MONM

W 79-69

+2.5

CAM

W 73-68

+1.5

NCAT

W 88-65

+9.5

COFC

L 76-79

−8.5

ELON

W 76-57

+14.5

CAM

L 70-85

−21.5

YALE

W 68-67

+5.5

DAY

L 61-80

−15.5

covered 16didn’t cover 16avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

KENT

L 77-86

+6.5

UPST

W 73-60

−22.5

ECU

W 85-60

−0.5

RAD

W 81-73

+2.5

SELA

W 70-57

−10.5

NAVY

W 87-57

+5.5

GWEB

W 88-62

+2.5

MRSH

W 70-69

−11.5

W 70-63

+2.5

VAL

W 73-70

+6.5

HOW

L 66-67

−8.5

NCAT

W 87-78

+18.5

DREX

W 65-53

−19.5

HAMP

W 49-45

−46.5

W 87-78

+22.5

STBK

W 75-71

+12.5

CAM

W 78-75

+3.5

W&M

L 70-77

−12.5

HAMP

W 75-67

+5.5

TOW

W 82-73

+19.5

W&M

L 78-85

+3.5

COFC

W 76-64

−8.5

ELON

W 65-54

−30.5

HOF

W 70-66

−1.5

MONM

W 79-69

+3.5

CAM

W 73-68

−9.5

NCAT

W 88-65

+6.5

COFC

L 76-79

+8.5

ELON

W 76-57

−12.5

CAM

L 70-85

+5.5

YALE

W 68-67

−13.5

DAY

L 61-80

+2.5

over 18under 14avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UNC Wilmington has the better starters

Position by position: Louisiana 0, UNC Wilmington 3, even 2

LouisianaBetterUNC Wilmington

G D. Lavergne9.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 40

UNCWBig

G W. Kermoury TR13.1 pts · 3.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 75

G M. Cooper5.9 pts · 2.7 reb · 3.5 ast Score 1

UNCWBig

G T. Pettway TR8.8 pts · 2.1 reb · 2 ast Score 64

G T. Middleton TR12.4 pts · 3.5 reb · 3 ast Score 49

Even

F G. Walsh9.1 pts · 6.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 57

G J. Keller17 pts · 2 reb · 3 ast Not ranked

No call

F S. Elliott TR4.1 pts · 2.7 reb · 1 ast Score 23

F J. Harris TR9.3 pts · 6.3 reb · 1.9 ast Score 34

UNCWBig

C P. Wessler13.5 pts · 9.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 87

LouisianaBetterUNC Wilmington

UL offense292nd of 366 · -9.0

UNCWBig

UNCW defense119th of 366 · -1.8

UL defense157th of 366 · -3.4

Even

UNCW offense131st of 366 · -3.7

Backcourt-6.4 · 4 players

UNCWBig

Backcourt+1.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.2 · 1 player

UNCWBig

Frontcourt+2.5 · 3 players

Bench-0.5 · 4 players

Even

Bench-1.4 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestUL betterUNCW betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Louisiana

Guards

D. Lavergne30 minM. Cooper30 minT. Middleton30 min · TRJ. Keller30 minL. Myers2 minD. WareNew

Forwards

J. Harris27 min · TRD. Pounds18 min · TRT. Jones17 minJ. Evans11 minR. OlajuwonNewT. DuncanNew

UNC Wilmington

Guards

W. Kermoury27 min · TRT. Pettway22 min · TRJ. Lamothe15 minX. Brown12 min · TRM. Smith3 minC. LusterNew

Forwards

G. Walsh26 minS. Elliott17 min · TRT. NelsonNewM. ProdanovicNewW. SewardNew

Centers

P. Wessler27 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UL63.7 #354

UNCW74.6 #174

Points per possession

UL0.99 #333

UNCW1.13 #84

Pace (possessions)

UL64.1 #359

UNCW66.1 #310

Shooting

Effective FG%

UL47.1 #334

UNCW50.4 #220

3-point %

UL33.6 #189

UNCW35.0 #124

3-point attempt rate

UL40.5 #160

UNCW38.8 #194

Free throw rate

UL28.7 #334

UNCW40.4 #54

Possessions

Turnover rate

UL16.8 #185

UNCW14.9 #57

Offensive rebound rate

UL28.4 #251

UNCW35.3 #40

Assists per game

UL10.3 #354

UNCW13.1 #204

Defense

Points allowed

UL70.7 #69

UNCW68.1 #32

Points allowed per possession

UL1.10 #227

UNCW1.03 #56

Opponent effective FG%

UL52.6 #247

UNCW47.5 #30

Opponent 3-point %

UL35.6 #286

UNCW29.7 #6

Turnovers forced

UL18.3 #85

UNCW14.9 #297

Defensive rebound rate

UL67.7 #272

UNCW72.4 #51

Steals per game

UL5.8 #257

UNCW5.1 #330

Blocks per game

UL3.5 #141

UNCW2.4 #312

UL		UNCW
Scoring
63.7 #354	Points per game	74.6 #174
0.99 #333	Points per possession	1.13 #84
64.1 #359	Pace (possessions)	66.1 #310
Shooting
47.1 #334	Effective FG%	50.4 #220
33.6 #189	3-point %	35.0 #124
40.5 #160	3-point attempt rate	38.8 #194
28.7 #334	Free throw rate	40.4 #54
Possessions
16.8 #185	Turnover rate	14.9 #57
28.4 #251	Offensive rebound rate	35.3 #40
10.3 #354	Assists per game	13.1 #204
Defense
70.7 #69	Points allowed	68.1 #32
1.10 #227	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #56
52.6 #247	Opponent effective FG%	47.5 #30
35.6 #286	Opponent 3-point %	29.7 #6
18.3 #85	Turnovers forced	14.9 #297
67.7 #272	Defensive rebound rate	72.4 #51
5.8 #257	Steals per game	5.1 #330
3.5 #141	Blocks per game	2.4 #312

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Louisiana

11-22 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs James Madison72–87
Wvs Georgia St84–75
L@ Arkansas St58–81
L@ Troy59–78
Wvs Texas St67–54

A week or more of rest.

UNC Wilmington

25-7 in 2025-26 overall · 15-4 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Dayton61–80
W@ Yale68–67
Lvs Campbell70–85
W@ Elon76–57
Lvs Charleston76–79

A week or more of rest.

Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns at UNC Wilmington Seahawks

What could decide it: UNCW has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

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ATS History · 2025-26

Louisiana

UNC Wilmington

UNC Wilmington has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Louisiana

UNC Wilmington