Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns at San Francisco Dons: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 18, 10:00 PM ETThe Sobrato Center · at San Francisco

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Louisiana and San Francisco
UL	This season	SF
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SF 74–67 · win probability SF 73%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 141.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SF has more of the edges

UL 2, SF 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

SFBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: UL 28.7, SF 40.1. Allowed: UL 45.8, SF 29.6

SFBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UL 28.4%, SF 31.4%. Defensive: UL 67.7%, SF 71.0%

Context

Schedule so far

UL has played the 226th-hardest schedule, SF the 98th. A record against a soft schedule means less

SFBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: UL 47.1 and allows 52.6; SF 51.3 and allows 50.8

SFBig

UL offense vs SF defense

Offense 292nd of 366 against a defense 165th, on the model’s ratings

ULSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UL 59%, SF 3%. Transfers in: UL 3, SF 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

ULSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UL 16.8%, SF 15.9%. Forced: UL 18.3%, SF 14.1%

SFSmall

Three-pointers

UL hits 33.6% and allows 35.6%; SF hits 34.6% and allows 34.1%. Threes are 40.5% and 46.1% of their shots

SFSmall

Home court

SF at home. This season: SF 0-0 at home, UL 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 66 possessions: UL plays 64.1 a game (359th fastest), SF 67.3 (271st). Faster games mean more points

Even

SF offense vs UL defense

Offense 178th of 366 against a defense 157th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SF -7.0	—
Total	—	141.3	—
Projected score	—	UL 67.2 · SF 74.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SF -4.0	—
1H total	66.1	—
1H projected score	UL 31 · SF 35.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UL WLLWL	15-18	45%	6-10	—
SF LLWWL	14-18	44%	5-10	—

Venue/role: UL away; SF home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UL UOUOO	15-18	45%	11-22
SF UOUOO	17-15	53%	16-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UL	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
SF	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Louisiana

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	@ USC	No recent meeting
Nov 28	vs MCN	L62–88LO
Dec 2	vs HCU	No recent meeting

San Francisco

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 23	vs NEV	L65–81LO
Nov 24	vs ORST	L77–78LO
Nov 28	vs BCU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Louisiana

33 games played

Straight up

11-22

33% wins

Against the spread

15-18

45% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-18

45% overs · avg −0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-2233%

L W L L L L L L L L L L W W L L W L L W L W W W W L L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1845%

L W W L L L L L W W L W W W L L L L W W L W W W W L L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1845%

U U U O O U U U U O U U O U U O O O U U O O U U O O O U U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@BALL	L 64-75	+4.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 139
Nov 7	vsSELA	W 58-52	-3.5	W +2.5	135.5	U 110
Nov 11	vsTULN	L 62-66	+5.5	W +1.5	135.5	U 128
Nov 14	@MCN	L 62-88	+15.5	L −10.5	134.5	O 150
Nov 18	@STAN	L 66-93	+20.5	L −6.5	139.5	O 159
Nov 21	@SCU	L 43-80	+19.5	L −17.5	140.5	U 123
Nov 24	@UCD	L 56-77	+9.5	L −11.5	136.5	U 133
Nov 28	vsJKST	L 45-51	-5.5	L −11.5	136.5	U 96
Dec 3	@LAM	L 55-65	+10.5	W +0.5	129.5	U 120
Dec 6	vsUNCW	L 63-70	+12.5	W +5.5	130.5	O 133
Dec 13	@LT	L 44-65	+9.5	L −11.5	126.5	U 109
Dec 18	@USM	L 54-62	+11.5	W +3.5	132.5	U 116
Dec 20	@ULM	W 76-62	-1.5	W +12.5	136.5	O 138
Dec 28	vsNORF	W 63-54	-3.5	W +5.5	126.5	U 117
Dec 31	vsUSA	L 58-63	+3.5	L −1.5	127.5	U 121
Jan 3	vsUSM	L 67-74	+3.5	L −3.5	129.5	O 141
Jan 8	vsULM	W 85-79	-7.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 164
Jan 10	vsTROY	L 70-90	+9.5	L −10.5	136.5	O 160
Jan 14	@TXST	L 54-59	+8.5	W +3.5	133.5	U 113
Jan 17	@USA	W 59-56	+9.5	W +12.5	129.5	U 115
Jan 22	@APP	L 58-72	+9.5	L −4.5	124.5	O 130
Jan 29	vsGAST	W 82-72	+1.5	W +11.5	129.5	O 154
Jan 31	vsGASO	W 69-60	+2.5	W +11.5	144.5	U 129
Feb 4	@JMU	W 64-61	+9.5	W +12.5	132.5	U 125
Feb 7	vsCMU	W 85-80	-2.5	W +2.5	134.5	O 165
Feb 12	vsCCU	L 65-69	+1.5	L −2.5	132.5	O 134
Feb 16	@ODU	L 72-83	+6.5	L −4.5	135.5	O 155
Feb 19	vsARST	L 62-79	+8.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 141
Feb 21	vsTXST	W 67-54	+3.5	W +16.5	134.5	U 121
Feb 24	@TROY	L 59-78	+11.5	L −7.5	134.5	O 137
Feb 27	@ARST	L 58-81	+13.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 139
Mar 3	vsGAST	W 84-75	+1.5	W +10.5	134.5	O 159
Mar 4	vsJMU	L 72-87	+6.5	L −8.5	134.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BALL

L 64-75

−6.5

SELA

W 58-52

+2.5

TULN

L 62-66

+1.5

MCN

L 62-88

−10.5

STAN

L 66-93

−6.5

SCU

L 43-80

−17.5

UCD

L 56-77

−11.5

JKST

L 45-51

−11.5

LAM

L 55-65

+0.5

UNCW

L 63-70

+5.5

L 44-65

−11.5

USM

L 54-62

+3.5

ULM

W 76-62

+12.5

NORF

W 63-54

+5.5

USA

L 58-63

−1.5

USM

L 67-74

−3.5

ULM

W 85-79

−1.5

TROY

L 70-90

−10.5

TXST

L 54-59

+3.5

USA

W 59-56

+12.5

APP

L 58-72

−4.5

GAST

W 82-72

+11.5

GASO

W 69-60

+11.5

JMU

W 64-61

+12.5

CMU

W 85-80

+2.5

CCU

L 65-69

−2.5

ODU

L 72-83

−4.5

ARST

L 62-79

−8.5

TXST

W 67-54

+16.5

TROY

L 59-78

−7.5

ARST

L 58-81

−9.5

GAST

W 84-75

+10.5

JMU

L 72-87

−8.5

covered 15didn’t cover 18avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BALL

L 64-75

−2.5

SELA

W 58-52

−25.5

TULN

L 62-66

−7.5

MCN

L 62-88

+15.5

STAN

L 66-93

+19.5

SCU

L 43-80

−17.5

UCD

L 56-77

−3.5

JKST

L 45-51

−40.5

LAM

L 55-65

−9.5

UNCW

L 63-70

+2.5

L 44-65

−17.5

USM

L 54-62

−16.5

ULM

W 76-62

+1.5

NORF

W 63-54

−9.5

USA

L 58-63

−6.5

USM

L 67-74

+11.5

ULM

W 85-79

+24.5

TROY

L 70-90

+23.5

TXST

L 54-59

−20.5

USA

W 59-56

−14.5

APP

L 58-72

+5.5

GAST

W 82-72

+24.5

GASO

W 69-60

−15.5

JMU

W 64-61

−7.5

CMU

W 85-80

+30.5

CCU

L 65-69

+1.5

ODU

L 72-83

+19.5

ARST

L 62-79

−3.5

TXST

W 67-54

−13.5

TROY

L 59-78

+2.5

ARST

L 58-81

−7.5

GAST

W 84-75

+24.5

JMU

L 72-87

+24.5

over 15under 18avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

San Francisco

32 games played

Straight up

16-16

50% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg −2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-15

53% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1650%

L W W W W L L L W L W W W L W W L W L W L L W L L L W L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1844%

L L W W W L L L W W W W W L L L L W L L W L W L L L W L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

17-1553%

U U U O O U O U U O O O U U U U O U O O U O O O U O O U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@MEM	L 70-76	+2.5	L −3.5	157.5	U 146
Nov 12	vsPRST	W 80-70	-13.5	L −3.5	154.5	U 150
Nov 15	vsBRAD	W 75-64	-9.5	W +1.5	146.5	U 139
Nov 18	vsNWST	W 84-64	-16.5	W +3.5	143.5	O 148
Nov 22	vsMINN	W 77-65	+1.5	W +13.5	140.5	O 142
Nov 27	vsCOLO	L 69-79	-1.5	L −11.5	150.5	U 148
Nov 28	vsNEV	L 65-81	-5.5	L −21.5	142.5	O 146
Dec 3	vsUNA	L 63-65	-16.5	L −18.5	145.5	U 128
Dec 7	vsMSST	W 65-62	+4.5	W +7.5	150.5	U 127
Dec 13	@SLU	L 75-85	+12.5	W +2.5	155.5	O 160
Dec 17	vsLUC	W 85-71	-11.5	W +2.5	143.5	O 156
Dec 21	vsMORG	W 94-64	-25.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 158
Dec 28	@SEA	W 67-59	+2.5	W +10.5	146.5	U 126
Dec 30	@ORST	L 62-70	-4.5	L −12.5	144.5	U 132
Jan 2	vsUSD	W 74-64	-12.5	L −2.5	152.5	U 138
Jan 4	vsPORT	W 73-68	-11.5	L −6.5	147.5	U 141
Jan 8	@LMU	L 82-84	+1.5	L −0.5	141.5	O 166
Jan 10	@PEPP	W 80-60	-7.5	W +12.5	140.5	U 140
Jan 13	vsSMC	L 68-82	+5.5	L −8.5	141.5	O 150
Jan 18	vsWSU	W 85-80	-5.5	L −0.5	146.5	O 165
Jan 24	@GONZ	L 66-68	+15.5	W +13.5	149.5	U 134
Jan 28	@SCU	L 73-88	+9.5	L −5.5	150.5	O 161
Jan 31	vsPAC	W 87-82	-4.5	W +0.5	138.5	O 169
Feb 4	vsLMU	L 75-84	-8.5	L −17.5	145.5	O 159
Feb 7	@SMC	L 54-79	+11.5	L −13.5	142.5	U 133
Feb 12	vsORST	L 63-90	-8.5	L −35.5	140.5	O 153
Feb 15	@USD	W 92-79	-5.5	W +7.5	148.5	O 171
Feb 18	vsGONZ	L 59-80	+15.5	L −5.5	151.5	U 139
Feb 21	vsSCU	L 73-94	+6.5	L −14.5	158.5	O 167
Feb 28	@PAC	W 72-61	+3.5	W +14.5	142.5	U 133
Mar 7	vsPORT	W 82-65	-6.5	W +10.5	146.5	O 147
Mar 8	vsORST	L 77-78	-3.5	L −4.5	144.5	O 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MEM

L 70-76

−3.5

PRST

W 80-70

−3.5

BRAD

W 75-64

+1.5

NWST

W 84-64

+3.5

MINN

W 77-65

+13.5

COLO

L 69-79

−11.5

NEV

L 65-81

−21.5

UNA

L 63-65

−18.5

MSST

W 65-62

+7.5

SLU

L 75-85

+2.5

LUC

W 85-71

+2.5

MORG

W 94-64

+4.5

SEA

W 67-59

+10.5

ORST

L 62-70

−12.5

USD

W 74-64

−2.5

PORT

W 73-68

−6.5

LMU

L 82-84

−0.5

PEPP

W 80-60

+12.5

SMC

L 68-82

−8.5

WSU

W 85-80

−0.5

GONZ

L 66-68

+13.5

SCU

L 73-88

−5.5

PAC

W 87-82

+0.5

LMU

L 75-84

−17.5

SMC

L 54-79

−13.5

ORST

L 63-90

−35.5

USD

W 92-79

+7.5

GONZ

L 59-80

−5.5

SCU

L 73-94

−14.5

PAC

W 72-61

+14.5

PORT

W 82-65

+10.5

ORST

L 77-78

−4.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MEM

L 70-76

−11.5

PRST

W 80-70

−4.5

BRAD

W 75-64

−7.5

NWST

W 84-64

+4.5

MINN

W 77-65

+1.5

COLO

L 69-79

−2.5

NEV

L 65-81

+3.5

UNA

L 63-65

−17.5

MSST

W 65-62

−23.5

SLU

L 75-85

+4.5

LUC

W 85-71

+12.5

MORG

W 94-64

+12.5

SEA

W 67-59

−20.5

ORST

L 62-70

−12.5

USD

W 74-64

−14.5

PORT

W 73-68

−6.5

LMU

L 82-84

+24.5

PEPP

W 80-60

−0.5

SMC

L 68-82

+8.5

WSU

W 85-80

+18.5

GONZ

L 66-68

−15.5

SCU

L 73-88

+10.5

PAC

W 87-82

+30.5

LMU

L 75-84

+13.5

SMC

L 54-79

−9.5

ORST

L 63-90

+12.5

USD

W 92-79

+22.5

GONZ

L 59-80

−12.5

SCU

L 73-94

+8.5

PAC

W 72-61

−9.5

PORT

W 82-65

+0.5

ORST

L 77-78

+10.5

over 17under 15avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Louisiana has the better starters

Position by position: Louisiana 1, San Francisco 0, even 4

LouisianaBetterSan Francisco

G D. Lavergne9.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 40

No call

G A. Bashir TR2.4 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked

G M. Cooper5.9 pts · 2.7 reb · 3.5 ast Score 1

No call

G A. Braccia0.4 pts · 0.5 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

G T. Middleton TR12.4 pts · 3.5 reb · 3 ast Score 49

ULSmall

F B. Oosterbaan TR7.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 31

G J. Keller17 pts · 2 reb · 3 ast Not ranked

No call

F N. Newbury NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

F J. Harris TR9.3 pts · 6.3 reb · 1.9 ast Score 34

No call

C I. Diagne TR1.1 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

LouisianaBetterSan Francisco

UL offense292nd of 366 · -9.0

SFBig

SF defense165th of 366 · -3.7

UL defense157th of 366 · -3.4

Even

SF offense178th of 366 · -5.5

Backcourt-6.4 · 4 players

SFBig

Backcourt-0.9 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.2 · 1 player

Even

Frontcourt-1.6 · 3 players

Bench-0.5 · 4 players

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestUL betterSF betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Louisiana

Guards

D. Lavergne30 minM. Cooper30 minT. Middleton30 min · TRJ. Keller30 minL. Myers2 minD. WareNew

Forwards

J. Harris27 min · TRD. Pounds18 min · TRT. Jones17 minJ. Evans11 minR. OlajuwonNewT. DuncanNew

San Francisco

Guards

A. Bashir10 min · TRA. Braccia5 minW. FodeNewM. MageeNewY. VitlemNewD. BordonNew

Forwards

B. Oosterbaan25 min · TRN. NewburyNewA. TysonNewG. KnudsenNewD. WileyNewJ. PihtovsNew

Centers

I. Diagne7 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UL63.7 #354

SF73.9 #198

Points per possession

UL0.99 #333

SF1.10 #131

Pace (possessions)

UL64.1 #359

SF67.3 #271

Shooting

Effective FG%

UL47.1 #334

SF51.3 #184

3-point %

UL33.6 #189

SF34.6 #140

3-point attempt rate

UL40.5 #160

SF46.1 #45

Free throw rate

UL28.7 #334

SF40.1 #59

Possessions

Turnover rate

UL16.8 #185

SF15.9 #129

Offensive rebound rate

UL28.4 #251

SF31.4 #148

Assists per game

UL10.3 #354

SF13.6 #174

Defense

Points allowed

UL70.7 #69

SF73.8 #149

Points allowed per possession

UL1.10 #227

SF1.09 #206

Opponent effective FG%

UL52.6 #247

SF50.8 #143

Opponent 3-point %

UL35.6 #286

SF34.1 #187

Turnovers forced

UL18.3 #85

SF14.1 #331

Defensive rebound rate

UL67.7 #272

SF71.0 #105

Steals per game

UL5.8 #257

SF5.1 #332

Blocks per game

UL3.5 #141

SF2.9 #238

UL		SF
Scoring
63.7 #354	Points per game	73.9 #198
0.99 #333	Points per possession	1.10 #131
64.1 #359	Pace (possessions)	67.3 #271
Shooting
47.1 #334	Effective FG%	51.3 #184
33.6 #189	3-point %	34.6 #140
40.5 #160	3-point attempt rate	46.1 #45
28.7 #334	Free throw rate	40.1 #59
Possessions
16.8 #185	Turnover rate	15.9 #129
28.4 #251	Offensive rebound rate	31.4 #148
10.3 #354	Assists per game	13.6 #174
Defense
70.7 #69	Points allowed	73.8 #149
1.10 #227	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #206
52.6 #247	Opponent effective FG%	50.8 #143
35.6 #286	Opponent 3-point %	34.1 #187
18.3 #85	Turnovers forced	14.1 #331
67.7 #272	Defensive rebound rate	71.0 #105
5.8 #257	Steals per game	5.1 #332
3.5 #141	Blocks per game	2.9 #238

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Louisiana

11-22 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs James Madison72–87
Wvs Georgia St84–75
L@ Arkansas St58–81
L@ Troy59–78
Wvs Texas St67–54

A week or more of rest.

San Francisco

16-16 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Oregon St77–78
Wvs Portland82–65
W@ Pacific72–61
Lvs Santa Clara73–94
Lvs Gonzaga59–80

A week or more of rest.

Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns at San Francisco Dons

What could decide it: SF has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Louisiana

San Francisco

Louisiana has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Louisiana

San Francisco