Oregon State Beavers vs San Francisco Dons: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 24, 2:00 PM ETAcrisure Arena · Neutral site

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Oregon St and San Francisco
ORST	This season	SF
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ORST 78–71 · win probability ORST 75%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 148.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ORST has more of the edges

ORST 3, SF 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

SFBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ORST 26.8%, SF 31.4%. Defensive: ORST 67.9%, SF 71.0%

ORSTSmall

ORST offense vs SF defense

Offense 95th of 366 against a defense 165th, on the model’s ratings

ORSTSmall

SF offense vs ORST defense

Offense 178th of 366 against a defense 109th, on the model’s ratings

ORSTSmall

Three-pointers

ORST hits 35.0% and allows 32.9%; SF hits 34.6% and allows 34.1%. Threes are 44.3% and 46.1% of their shots

SFSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: ORST 43.1, SF 40.1. Allowed: ORST 35.1, SF 29.6

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ORST 17.7%, SF 15.9%. Forced: ORST 15.3%, SF 14.1%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ORST 17%, SF 3%. Transfers in: ORST 9, SF 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Schedule so far

ORST has played the 120th-hardest schedule, SF the 98th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: ORST 50.5 and allows 50.3; SF 51.3 and allows 50.8

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: ORST plays 67.2 a game (272nd fastest), SF 67.3 (271st). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	ORST -7.6	—
Total	—	148.5	—
Projected score	—	ORST 78.1 · SF 70.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ORST -4.7	—
1H total	69.5	—
1H projected score	ORST 37.1 · SF 32.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
ORST WWLWW	16-17	48%	2-3	—
SF LLWWL	14-18	44%	3-3	—

Venue/role: ORST neutral site; SF neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORST OOOOU	19-14	58%	17-16
SF UOUOO	17-15	53%	16-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORST	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
SF	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Oregon St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	vs MILW	No recent meeting
Dec 5	vs USM	No recent meeting
Dec 11	vs LAM	No recent meeting

San Francisco

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs BCU	No recent meeting
Dec 2	vs UNLV	W75–73WO
Dec 5	vs SDAK	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

ORST 3–2 SFORST leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · ORST has won the last 3 meetings · ORST 3-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 8, 2025-26	SF 77 vs ORST 78	ORST +3.5	ORST W
Feb 12, 2025-26	ORST 90 @ SF 63	SF -8.5	ORST W
Dec 30, 2025-26	SF 62 @ ORST 70	ORST +4.5	ORST W
Feb 26, 2024-25	SF 74 @ ORST 72	ORST -3.5	SF W
Jan 18, 2024-25	ORST 70 @ SF 81	SF -4.5	SF W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Oregon St

33 games played

Straight up

17-16

52% wins

Against the spread

16-17

48% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-14

58% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1652%

W W W L L L L L W W W L W L W L L W L W L L W W W L W L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1748%

L L L W L L L L W W W L W L W L L W L W L L W W W L W L W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

19-1458%

U O U O O O U O U O U O O O U U O U O O O U U O U U O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNDSU	W 67-65	-9.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 132
Nov 7	vsUIC	W 76-73	-6.5	L −3.5	146.5	O 149
Nov 12	vsUNT	W 66-64	-3.5	L −1.5	134.5	U 130
Nov 17	@ORE	L 75-87	+13.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 162
Nov 21	vsEVAN	L 69-73	-6.5	L −10.5	136.5	O 142
Nov 22	vsIONA	L 84-91	-3.5	L −10.5	157.5	O 175
Nov 24	vsMASS	L 65-73	-3.5	L −11.5	149.5	U 138
Nov 29	vsCBU	L 69-75	-1.5	L −7.5	137.5	O 144
Dec 3	vsUVM	W 80-58	-3.5	W +18.5	143.5	U 138
Dec 6	vsSUU	W 81-70	-10.5	W +0.5	146.5	O 151
Dec 13	vsMTST	W 67-57	-1.5	W +8.5	140.5	U 124
Dec 17	vsSHSU	L 75-85	-3.5	L −13.5	153.5	O 160
Dec 21	@ASU	W 78-75	+12.5	W +15.5	147.5	O 153
Dec 28	vsSCU	L 64-102	+7.5	L −30.5	150.5	O 166
Dec 30	vsSF	W 70-62	+4.5	W +12.5	144.5	U 132
Jan 2	@PAC	L 53-84	+4.5	L −26.5	137.5	U 137
Jan 4	@WSU	L 67-81	+6.5	L −7.5	140.5	O 148
Jan 8	vsSEA	W 68-55	+4.5	W +17.5	139.5	U 123
Jan 10	@PORT	L 76-82	+2.5	L −3.5	145.5	O 158
Jan 14	vsLMU	W 76-70	+1.5	W +7.5	140.5	O 146
Jan 17	vsPAC	L 64-81	-1.5	L −18.5	139.5	O 145
Jan 21	@SMC	L 51-81	+19.5	L −10.5	142.5	U 132
Jan 28	@LMU	W 72-69	+5.5	W +8.5	141.5	U 141
Jan 31	@USD	W 78-76	+3.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 154
Feb 4	vsWSU	W 74-64	+1.5	W +11.5	147.5	U 138
Feb 7	vsGONZ	L 61-81	+19.5	L −0.5	149.5	U 142
Feb 12	@SF	W 90-63	+8.5	W +35.5	140.5	O 153
Feb 15	@SEA	L 50-60	+6.5	L −3.5	136.5	U 110
Feb 21	vsPEPP	W 83-73	-9.5	W +0.5	148.5	O 156
Feb 25	vsUSD	W 92-82	-6.5	W +3.5	144.5	O 174
Feb 28	@SCU	L 72-93	+15.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 165
Mar 8	vsSF	W 78-77	+3.5	W +4.5	144.5	O 155
Mar 9	vsGONZ	L 56-65	+20.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 121

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NDSU

W 67-65

−7.5

UIC

W 76-73

−3.5

UNT

W 66-64

−1.5

ORE

L 75-87

+1.5

EVAN

L 69-73

−10.5

IONA

L 84-91

−10.5

MASS

L 65-73

−11.5

CBU

L 69-75

−7.5

UVM

W 80-58

+18.5

SUU

W 81-70

+0.5

MTST

W 67-57

+8.5

SHSU

L 75-85

−13.5

ASU

W 78-75

+15.5

SCU

L 64-102

−30.5

W 70-62

+12.5

PAC

L 53-84

−26.5

WSU

L 67-81

−7.5

SEA

W 68-55

+17.5

PORT

L 76-82

−3.5

LMU

W 76-70

+7.5

PAC

L 64-81

−18.5

SMC

L 51-81

−10.5

LMU

W 72-69

+8.5

USD

W 78-76

+5.5

WSU

W 74-64

+11.5

GONZ

L 61-81

−0.5

W 90-63

+35.5

SEA

L 50-60

−3.5

PEPP

W 83-73

+0.5

USD

W 92-82

+3.5

SCU

L 72-93

−5.5

W 78-77

+4.5

GONZ

L 56-65

+11.5

covered 16didn’t cover 17avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NDSU

W 67-65

−12.5

UIC

W 76-73

+2.5

UNT

W 66-64

−4.5

ORE

L 75-87

+20.5

EVAN

L 69-73

+5.5

IONA

L 84-91

+17.5

MASS

L 65-73

−11.5

CBU

L 69-75

+6.5

UVM

W 80-58

−5.5

SUU

W 81-70

+4.5

MTST

W 67-57

−16.5

SHSU

L 75-85

+6.5

ASU

W 78-75

+5.5

SCU

L 64-102

+15.5

W 70-62

−12.5

PAC

L 53-84

−0.5

WSU

L 67-81

+7.5

SEA

W 68-55

−16.5

PORT

L 76-82

+12.5

LMU

W 76-70

+5.5

PAC

L 64-81

+5.5

SMC

L 51-81

−10.5

LMU

W 72-69

−0.5

USD

W 78-76

+3.5

WSU

W 74-64

−9.5

GONZ

L 61-81

−7.5

W 90-63

+12.5

SEA

L 50-60

−26.5

PEPP

W 83-73

+7.5

USD

W 92-82

+29.5

SCU

L 72-93

+11.5

W 78-77

+10.5

GONZ

L 56-65

−24.5

over 19under 14avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

San Francisco

32 games played

Straight up

16-16

50% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg −2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-15

53% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1650%

L W W W W L L L W L W W W L W W L W L W L L W L L L W L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1844%

L L W W W L L L W W W W W L L L L W L L W L W L L L W L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

17-1553%

U U U O O U O U U O O O U U U U O U O O U O O O U O O U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@MEM	L 70-76	+2.5	L −3.5	157.5	U 146
Nov 12	vsPRST	W 80-70	-13.5	L −3.5	154.5	U 150
Nov 15	vsBRAD	W 75-64	-9.5	W +1.5	146.5	U 139
Nov 18	vsNWST	W 84-64	-16.5	W +3.5	143.5	O 148
Nov 22	vsMINN	W 77-65	+1.5	W +13.5	140.5	O 142
Nov 27	vsCOLO	L 69-79	-1.5	L −11.5	150.5	U 148
Nov 28	vsNEV	L 65-81	-5.5	L −21.5	142.5	O 146
Dec 3	vsUNA	L 63-65	-16.5	L −18.5	145.5	U 128
Dec 7	vsMSST	W 65-62	+4.5	W +7.5	150.5	U 127
Dec 13	@SLU	L 75-85	+12.5	W +2.5	155.5	O 160
Dec 17	vsLUC	W 85-71	-11.5	W +2.5	143.5	O 156
Dec 21	vsMORG	W 94-64	-25.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 158
Dec 28	@SEA	W 67-59	+2.5	W +10.5	146.5	U 126
Dec 30	@ORST	L 62-70	-4.5	L −12.5	144.5	U 132
Jan 2	vsUSD	W 74-64	-12.5	L −2.5	152.5	U 138
Jan 4	vsPORT	W 73-68	-11.5	L −6.5	147.5	U 141
Jan 8	@LMU	L 82-84	+1.5	L −0.5	141.5	O 166
Jan 10	@PEPP	W 80-60	-7.5	W +12.5	140.5	U 140
Jan 13	vsSMC	L 68-82	+5.5	L −8.5	141.5	O 150
Jan 18	vsWSU	W 85-80	-5.5	L −0.5	146.5	O 165
Jan 24	@GONZ	L 66-68	+15.5	W +13.5	149.5	U 134
Jan 28	@SCU	L 73-88	+9.5	L −5.5	150.5	O 161
Jan 31	vsPAC	W 87-82	-4.5	W +0.5	138.5	O 169
Feb 4	vsLMU	L 75-84	-8.5	L −17.5	145.5	O 159
Feb 7	@SMC	L 54-79	+11.5	L −13.5	142.5	U 133
Feb 12	vsORST	L 63-90	-8.5	L −35.5	140.5	O 153
Feb 15	@USD	W 92-79	-5.5	W +7.5	148.5	O 171
Feb 18	vsGONZ	L 59-80	+15.5	L −5.5	151.5	U 139
Feb 21	vsSCU	L 73-94	+6.5	L −14.5	158.5	O 167
Feb 28	@PAC	W 72-61	+3.5	W +14.5	142.5	U 133
Mar 7	vsPORT	W 82-65	-6.5	W +10.5	146.5	O 147
Mar 8	vsORST	L 77-78	-3.5	L −4.5	144.5	O 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MEM

L 70-76

−3.5

PRST

W 80-70

−3.5

BRAD

W 75-64

+1.5

NWST

W 84-64

+3.5

MINN

W 77-65

+13.5

COLO

L 69-79

−11.5

NEV

L 65-81

−21.5

UNA

L 63-65

−18.5

MSST

W 65-62

+7.5

SLU

L 75-85

+2.5

LUC

W 85-71

+2.5

MORG

W 94-64

+4.5

SEA

W 67-59

+10.5

ORST

L 62-70

−12.5

USD

W 74-64

−2.5

PORT

W 73-68

−6.5

LMU

L 82-84

−0.5

PEPP

W 80-60

+12.5

SMC

L 68-82

−8.5

WSU

W 85-80

−0.5

GONZ

L 66-68

+13.5

SCU

L 73-88

−5.5

PAC

W 87-82

+0.5

LMU

L 75-84

−17.5

SMC

L 54-79

−13.5

ORST

L 63-90

−35.5

USD

W 92-79

+7.5

GONZ

L 59-80

−5.5

SCU

L 73-94

−14.5

PAC

W 72-61

+14.5

PORT

W 82-65

+10.5

ORST

L 77-78

−4.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MEM

L 70-76

−11.5

PRST

W 80-70

−4.5

BRAD

W 75-64

−7.5

NWST

W 84-64

+4.5

MINN

W 77-65

+1.5

COLO

L 69-79

−2.5

NEV

L 65-81

+3.5

UNA

L 63-65

−17.5

MSST

W 65-62

−23.5

SLU

L 75-85

+4.5

LUC

W 85-71

+12.5

MORG

W 94-64

+12.5

SEA

W 67-59

−20.5

ORST

L 62-70

−12.5

USD

W 74-64

−14.5

PORT

W 73-68

−6.5

LMU

L 82-84

+24.5

PEPP

W 80-60

−0.5

SMC

L 68-82

+8.5

WSU

W 85-80

+18.5

GONZ

L 66-68

−15.5

SCU

L 73-88

+10.5

PAC

W 87-82

+30.5

LMU

L 75-84

+13.5

SMC

L 54-79

−9.5

ORST

L 63-90

+12.5

USD

W 92-79

+22.5

GONZ

L 59-80

−12.5

SCU

L 73-94

+8.5

PAC

W 72-61

−9.5

PORT

W 82-65

+0.5

ORST

L 77-78

+10.5

over 17under 15avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Oregon St has the better starters

Position by position: Oregon St 1, San Francisco 0, even 4

Oregon StBetterSan Francisco

G J. Lake13.1 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.2 ast Score 87

No call

G A. Bashir TR2.4 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked

G D. Freitag TR20 pts · 4.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 93

No call

G A. Braccia0.4 pts · 0.5 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

G L. Smiley TR7.8 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.6 ast Score 52

ORSTSmall

F B. Oosterbaan TR7.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 31

F J. Rasmussen TR13 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 43

No call

F N. Newbury NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

F D. Gory TR13.7 pts · 6.3 reb · 2 ast Score 80

No call

C I. Diagne TR1.1 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

Oregon StBetterSan Francisco

ORST offense95th of 366 · -0.7

ORSTSmall

SF defense165th of 366 · -3.7

ORST defense109th of 366 · -1.1

ORSTSmall

SF offense178th of 366 · -5.5

Backcourt+5.7 · 3 players

ORSTBig

Backcourt-0.9 · 2 players

Frontcourt+1.1 · 2 players

ORSTSmall

Frontcourt-1.6 · 3 players

Bench+1.3 · 5 players

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestORST betterSF betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Oregon St

Guards

J. Lake34 minD. Freitag34 min · TRL. Smiley21 min · TRC. Johnson16 min · TRS. Blakely Drummond1 min · TRJ. LakeNew

Forwards

J. Rasmussen32 min · TRD. Gory30 min · TRP. Pinnis4 min · TRK. TreacherNew

Centers

D. Evans9 min · TRX. Staton5 min · TRY. AklogNew

San Francisco

Guards

A. Bashir10 min · TRA. Braccia5 minW. FodeNewM. MageeNewY. VitlemNewD. BordonNew

Forwards

B. Oosterbaan25 min · TRN. NewburyNewA. TysonNewG. KnudsenNewD. WileyNewJ. PihtovsNew

Centers

I. Diagne7 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ORST71.1 #264

SF73.9 #198

Points per possession

ORST1.06 #232

SF1.10 #131

Pace (possessions)

ORST67.2 #272

SF67.3 #271

Shooting

Effective FG%

ORST50.5 #216

SF51.3 #184

3-point %

ORST35.0 #115

SF34.6 #140

3-point attempt rate

ORST44.3 #84

SF46.1 #45

Free throw rate

ORST43.1 #20

SF40.1 #59

Possessions

Turnover rate

ORST17.7 #254

SF15.9 #129

Offensive rebound rate

ORST26.8 #303

SF31.4 #148

Assists per game

ORST13.8 #159

SF13.6 #174

Defense

Points allowed

ORST74.2 #159

SF73.8 #149

Points allowed per possession

ORST1.10 #223

SF1.09 #206

Opponent effective FG%

ORST50.3 #119

SF50.8 #143

Opponent 3-point %

ORST32.9 #116

SF34.1 #187

Turnovers forced

ORST15.3 #264

SF14.1 #331

Defensive rebound rate

ORST67.9 #265

SF71.0 #105

Steals per game

ORST5.5 #293

SF5.1 #332

Blocks per game

ORST3.7 #115

SF2.9 #238

ORST		SF
Scoring
71.1 #264	Points per game	73.9 #198
1.06 #232	Points per possession	1.10 #131
67.2 #272	Pace (possessions)	67.3 #271
Shooting
50.5 #216	Effective FG%	51.3 #184
35.0 #115	3-point %	34.6 #140
44.3 #84	3-point attempt rate	46.1 #45
43.1 #20	Free throw rate	40.1 #59
Possessions
17.7 #254	Turnover rate	15.9 #129
26.8 #303	Offensive rebound rate	31.4 #148
13.8 #159	Assists per game	13.6 #174
Defense
74.2 #159	Points allowed	73.8 #149
1.10 #223	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #206
50.3 #119	Opponent effective FG%	50.8 #143
32.9 #116	Opponent 3-point %	34.1 #187
15.3 #264	Turnovers forced	14.1 #331
67.9 #265	Defensive rebound rate	71.0 #105
5.5 #293	Steals per game	5.1 #332
3.7 #115	Blocks per game	2.9 #238

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Oregon St

17-16 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Gonzaga56–65
Wvs San Francisco78–77
L@ Santa Clara72–93
Wvs San Diego92–82
Wvs Pepperdine83–73

A week or more of rest.

San Francisco

16-16 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Oregon St77–78
Wvs Portland82–65
W@ Pacific72–61
Lvs Santa Clara73–94
Lvs Gonzaga59–80

A week or more of rest.

Oregon State Beavers vs San Francisco Dons

What could decide it: ORST has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Oregon St

San Francisco

Oregon St has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Oregon St

San Francisco