1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 24
  3. TENN vs MD
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 24

Tennessee Volunteers vs Maryland Terrapins

Michelob ULTRA Arena · Neutral site
#7TENNTennessee AP #8
vs
#50MDMaryland
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
TENNThis seasonMD
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TENN 82–69 · win probability TENN 88%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 151.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TENN has more of the edges

TENN 5, MD 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
TENNBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: TENN 51.4 and allows 47.8; MD 48.1 and allows 54.4
TENNBig
Three-pointers
TENN hits 33.4% and allows 30.5%; MD hits 31.7% and allows 36.3%. Threes are 32.1% and 46.9% of their shots
TENNSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: TENN 17.4%, MD 18.6%. Forced: TENN 16.1%, MD 14.9%
MDSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: TENN 13%, MD 47%. Transfers in: TENN 9, MD 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
TENNSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: TENN 44.7%, MD 33.8%. Defensive: TENN 72.2%, MD 70.9%
TENNSmall
MD offense vs TENN defense
Offense 63rd of 366 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: TENN plays 68.1 a game (226th fastest), MD 67.0 (281st). Faster games mean more points
Even
TENN offense vs MD defense
Offense 9th of 366 against a defense 34th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
TENN has played the 7th-hardest schedule, MD the 28th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: TENN 37.4, MD 36.4. Allowed: TENN 36.3, MD 35.8
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—TENN -13.4—
Total—151.3—
Projected score—TENN 82.3 · MD 69

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadTENN -8.1—
1H total70.7—
1H projected scoreTENN 39.4 · MD 31.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Maryland has the better starters

Position by position: Tennessee 1, Maryland 2, even 2
TennesseeBetterMaryland
G J. Harris TR21.4 pts · 6.5 reb · 1.9 ast Score 99
TENNSmall
G M. McNair TR16.9 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 84
G T. Lundblade TR15.8 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.8 ast Score 63
MDSmall
G A. Mills12.2 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 89
G D. Dai Ames TR17 pts · 2 reb · 2.1 ast Score 83
Even
G B. Boswell TR6.2 pts · 4.4 reb · 3.1 ast Score 70
F B. Lue TR10.9 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.3 ast Score 53
MDBig
F P. Payne17.5 pts · 7.2 reb · 1.4 ast Score 100
C M. Rubin TR11.3 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 83
Even
F T. Buljan TR13.1 pts · 10.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 97
TennesseeBetterMaryland
TENN offense9th of 366 · +10.4
Even
MD defense34th of 366 · +3.3
TENN defense9th of 366 · +8.2
TENNSmall
MD offense63rd of 366 · +2.4
Backcourt+8.4 · 3 players
TENNBig
Backcourt+4.9 · 3 players
Frontcourt+3.1 · 2 players
MDBig
Frontcourt+11.4 · 2 players
Bench+11.2 · 5 players
TENNBig
Bench-2.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestTENN betterMD betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Tennessee
Guards
J. Harris35 min · TRT. Lundblade35 min · TRD. Dai Ames32 min · TRJ. Haralson27 min · TRT. Hill25 min · TRT. Henderson7 min
Forwards
B. Lue27 min · TRJ. Washington21 min · TRD. Brown15 minC. Fermin13 min · TRC. WashingtonNewR. ScottNew
Centers
M. Rubin30 min · TR
Maryland
Guards
M. McNair37 min · TRA. Mills27 minB. Boswell27 min · TRD. Wagner24 min · TRM. Jabriel20 minG. Turkson11 min
Forwards
P. Payne27 minT. Buljan26 min · TRR. Jennings13 min · TRA. BrownNewB. OladotunNewA. TambedouNew
Centers
A. K'MedehoutoNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
TENNMD
Scoring
78.8 #81Points per game69.7 #291
1.16 #49Points per possession1.04 #270
68.1 #226Pace (possessions)67.0 #281
Shooting
51.4 #174Effective FG%48.1 #311
33.4 #2013-point %31.7 #293
32.1 #3283-point attempt rate46.9 #35
37.4 #115Free throw rate36.4 #142
Possessions
17.4 #227Turnover rate18.6 #300
44.7 #1Offensive rebound rate33.8 #73
17.1 #24Assists per game10.4 #351
Defense
69.6 #58Points allowed76.6 #232
1.02 #43Points allowed per possession1.14 #312
47.8 #37Opponent effective FG%54.4 #312
30.5 #21Opponent 3-point %36.3 #317
16.1 #215Turnovers forced14.9 #294
72.2 #61Defensive rebound rate70.9 #111
7.3 #101Steals per game4.8 #345
3.7 #114Blocks per game2.9 #237
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Tennessee

25-12 in 2025-26 overall · 12-8 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Michigan62–95
  • Wvs Iowa State76–62
  • Wvs Virginia79–72
  • Wvs Miami OH78–56
  • Lvs Vanderbilt68–75

A week or more of rest.

Maryland

12-21 in 2025-26 overall · 5-17 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Iowa64–75
  • Wvs Oregon70–60
  • Lvs Illinois72–78
  • L@ Wisconsin45–78
  • Lvs Rutgers65–69

A week or more of rest.