Oklahoma Sooners vs Pittsburgh Panthers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 24, 1:30 PM ETSuncoast Credit Union Arena · Neutral site

#74PITTPitt

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Oklahoma and Pitt
OU	This season	PITT
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OU 80–73 · win probability OU 73%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 153.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: OU has more of the edges

OU 4, PITT 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

OUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: OU 54.9 and allows 51.0; PITT 51.0 and allows 53.4

PITTBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: OU 32.8%, PITT 33.9%. Defensive: OU 67.1%, PITT 71.9%

OUBig

Three-pointers

OU hits 36.5% and allows 34.1%; PITT hits 33.4% and allows 35.2%. Threes are 43.6% and 42.6% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: OU plays 69.4 a game (154th fastest), PITT 65.0 (345th). Faster games mean more points

OUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: OU 43%, PITT 3%. Transfers in: OU 6, PITT 10. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

OUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: OU 14.3%, PITT 17.2%. Forced: OU 15.5%, PITT 16.3%

Even

PITT offense vs OU defense

Offense 87th of 366 against a defense 51st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

OU has played the 32nd-hardest schedule, PITT the 65th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

OU offense vs PITT defense

Offense 28th of 366 against a defense 59th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: OU 35.5, PITT 30.4. Allowed: OU 34.9, PITT 30.9

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	OU -7.1	—
Total	—	153.4	—
Projected score	—	OU 80.2 · PITT 73.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	OU -4.3	—
1H total	71.7	—
1H projected score	OU 38 · PITT 33.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
OU WWLWL	17-20	46%	5-5	—
PITT WWWWL	16-17	48%	2-2	—

Venue/role: OU neutral site; PITT neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
OU UUOUO	18-19	49%	21-16
PITT UOUUO	19-14	58%	13-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OU	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%
PITT	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Oklahoma

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 26	vs PUR	No recent meeting
Dec 1	vs SYR	No recent meeting
Dec 5	vs ASU	L70–86LU

Pitt

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 26	vs DEP	No recent meeting
Dec 1	@ MIZ	L64–71LU
Dec 5	vs TAR	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Oklahoma

37 games played

Straight up

21-16

57% wins

Against the spread

17-20

46% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-19

49% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1657%

W L W L W W W W L W W W W W L L L L L L L L L W W L L W W W W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-2046%

W L L L L L L W L W L W L W L L L W L W L L L W W L L W W W W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1949%

O U U O U U U U U U O O O O U U O U O O U U O O O O U O U U O O U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSFPA	W 102-66	-31.5	W +4.5	149.5	O 168
Nov 8	@GONZ	L 68-83	+10.5	L −4.5	166.5	U 151
Nov 11	vsUAPB	W 95-69	-36.5	L −10.5	168.5	U 164
Nov 15	vsNEB	L 99-105	+1.5	L −4.5	163.5	O 204
Nov 20	vsORU	W 95-71	-24.5	L −0.5	166.5	U 166
Nov 23	vsALCN	W 72-53	-31.5	L −12.5	160.5	U 125
Nov 28	vsMARQ	W 75-74	-1.5	L −0.5	162.5	U 149
Dec 2	@WAKE	W 86-68	+4.5	W +22.5	159.5	U 154
Dec 6	vsASU	L 70-86	-5.5	L −21.5	157.5	U 156
Dec 13	vsOKST	W 85-76	-2.5	W +6.5	169.5	U 161
Dec 16	vsKC	W 89-67	-30.5	L −8.5	153.5	O 156
Dec 22	vsSTET	W 107-54	-31.5	W +21.5	148.5	O 161
Dec 29	vsMVSU	W 93-69	-44.5	L −20.5	153.5	O 162
Jan 3	vsMISS	W 86-70	-6.5	W +9.5	146.5	O 156
Jan 7	@MSST	L 53-72	+1.5	L −17.5	158.5	U 125
Jan 10	@TA&M	L 76-83	+4.5	L −2.5	165.5	U 159
Jan 13	vsFLA	L 79-96	+7.5	L −9.5	157.5	O 175
Jan 17	vsALA	L 81-83	+5.5	W +3.5	177.5	U 164
Jan 20	@SC	L 76-85	-2.5	L −11.5	150.5	O 161
Jan 24	@MIZ	L 87-88	+4.5	W +3.5	151.5	O 175
Jan 27	vsARK	L 79-83	+3.5	L −0.5	167.5	U 162
Jan 31	vsTEX	L 69-79	+1.5	L −8.5	155.5	U 148
Feb 4	@UK	L 78-94	+8.5	L −7.5	152.5	O 172
Feb 7	@VAN	W 92-91	+11.5	W +12.5	159.5	O 183
Feb 14	vsUGA	W 94-78	-1.5	W +14.5	164.5	O 172
Feb 18	@TENN	L 66-89	+11.5	L −11.5	149.5	O 155
Feb 21	vsTA&M	L 71-75	+1.5	L −2.5	165.5	U 146
Feb 24	vsAUB	W 91-79	+3.5	W +15.5	157.5	O 170
Feb 28	@LSU	W 83-67	+1.5	W +17.5	155.5	U 150
Mar 3	vsMIZ	W 80-64	+1.5	W +17.5	153.5	U 144
Mar 7	@TEX	W 88-85	+6.5	W +9.5	154.5	O 173
Mar 11	vsSC	W 86-74	-7.5	W +4.5	149.5	O 160
Mar 12	vsTA&M	W 83-63	+2.5	W +22.5	162.5	U 146
Mar 13	vsARK	L 79-82	+6.5	W +3.5	166.5	U 161
Apr 1	vsCOLO	W 90-86	-9.5	L −5.5	162.5	O 176
Apr 4	vsBAY	W 82-69	+1.5	W +14.5	159.5	U 151
Apr 5	vsWVU	L 82-89	-3.5	L −10.5	141.5	O 171

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SFPA

W 102-66

+4.5

GONZ

L 68-83

−4.5

UAPB

W 95-69

−10.5

NEB

L 99-105

−4.5

ORU

W 95-71

−0.5

ALCN

W 72-53

−12.5

MARQ

W 75-74

−0.5

WAKE

W 86-68

+22.5

ASU

L 70-86

−21.5

OKST

W 85-76

+6.5

W 89-67

−8.5

STET

W 107-54

+21.5

MVSU

W 93-69

−20.5

MISS

W 86-70

+9.5

MSST

L 53-72

−17.5

TA&M

L 76-83

−2.5

FLA

L 79-96

−9.5

ALA

L 81-83

+3.5

L 76-85

−11.5

MIZ

L 87-88

+3.5

ARK

L 79-83

−0.5

TEX

L 69-79

−8.5

L 78-94

−7.5

VAN

W 92-91

+12.5

UGA

W 94-78

+14.5

TENN

L 66-89

−11.5

TA&M

L 71-75

−2.5

AUB

W 91-79

+15.5

LSU

W 83-67

+17.5

MIZ

W 80-64

+17.5

TEX

W 88-85

+9.5

W 86-74

+4.5

TA&M

W 83-63

+22.5

ARK

L 79-82

+3.5

COLO

W 90-86

−5.5

BAY

W 82-69

+14.5

WVU

L 82-89

−10.5

covered 17didn’t cover 20avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SFPA

W 102-66

+18.5

GONZ

L 68-83

−15.5

UAPB

W 95-69

−4.5

NEB

L 99-105

+40.5

ORU

W 95-71

−0.5

ALCN

W 72-53

−35.5

MARQ

W 75-74

−13.5

WAKE

W 86-68

−5.5

ASU

L 70-86

−1.5

OKST

W 85-76

−8.5

W 89-67

+2.5

STET

W 107-54

+12.5

MVSU

W 93-69

+8.5

MISS

W 86-70

+9.5

MSST

L 53-72

−33.5

TA&M

L 76-83

−6.5

FLA

L 79-96

+17.5

ALA

L 81-83

−13.5

L 76-85

+10.5

MIZ

L 87-88

+23.5

ARK

L 79-83

−5.5

TEX

L 69-79

−7.5

L 78-94

+19.5

VAN

W 92-91

+23.5

UGA

W 94-78

+7.5

TENN

L 66-89

+5.5

TA&M

L 71-75

−19.5

AUB

W 91-79

+12.5

LSU

W 83-67

−5.5

MIZ

W 80-64

−9.5

TEX

W 88-85

+18.5

W 86-74

+10.5

TA&M

W 83-63

−16.5

ARK

L 79-82

−5.5

COLO

W 90-86

+13.5

BAY

W 82-69

−8.5

WVU

L 82-89

+29.5

over 18under 19avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pitt

33 games played

Straight up

13-20

39% wins

Against the spread

16-17

48% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-14

58% overs · avg −0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-2039%

W W W L W L L W L L L W W L L L W L L L W L L L L L W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1748%

W W L L W L L W L L L W W W L L W L L L W L L L W L W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1458%

U U O U U U O U O O O O U O O O O O U O O U U O U O O O U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsYSU	W 74-59	-14.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 133
Nov 7	vsLONG	W 78-60	-14.5	W +3.5	145.5	U 138
Nov 10	vsEMU	W 78-66	-15.5	L −3.5	141.5	O 144
Nov 13	@WVU	L 49-71	+5.5	L −16.5	134.5	U 120
Nov 17	vsBUCK	W 84-50	-16.5	W +17.5	141.5	U 134
Nov 20	vsUCF	L 67-77	-1.5	L −11.5	149.5	U 144
Nov 23	vsQUIN	L 75-83	-12.5	L −20.5	140.5	O 158
Nov 28	vsOSU	W 67-66	+5.5	W +6.5	148.5	U 133
Dec 2	vsTA&M	L 73-81	+3.5	L −4.5	152.5	O 154
Dec 7	vsHOF	L 73-80	-8.5	L −15.5	134.5	O 153
Dec 13	@VILL	L 61-79	+10.5	L −7.5	138.5	O 140
Dec 17	vsBING	W 103-63	-24.5	W +15.5	134.5	O 166
Dec 21	vsPSU	W 80-46	+1.5	W +35.5	146.5	U 126
Dec 30	@MIA	L 69-76	+9.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 145
Jan 3	vsCLEM	L 68-73	+3.5	L −1.5	135.5	O 141
Jan 10	vsSYR	L 72-83	-1.5	L −12.5	142.5	O 155
Jan 14	@GT	W 89-66	-1.5	W +21.5	145.5	O 155
Jan 17	vsLOU	L 59-100	+7.5	L −33.5	152.5	O 159
Jan 21	@BC	L 62-65	-2.5	L −5.5	137.5	U 127
Jan 24	vsNCSU	L 72-81	+6.5	L −2.5	144.5	O 153
Jan 27	vsWAKE	W 80-76	-1.5	W +2.5	150.5	O 156
Jan 31	@CLEM	L 52-63	+10.5	L −0.5	135.5	U 115
Feb 3	@UVA	L 47-67	+12.5	L −7.5	142.5	U 114
Feb 7	vsSMU	L 67-86	+4.5	L −14.5	147.5	O 153
Feb 10	vsDUKE	L 54-70	+17.5	W +1.5	136.5	U 124
Feb 14	@UNC	L 65-79	+11.5	L −2.5	142.5	O 144
Feb 21	vsND	W 73-68	-3.5	W +1.5	140.5	O 141
Feb 25	@STAN	L 67-75	+8.5	W +0.5	138.5	O 142
Feb 28	@CAL	W 72-56	+6.5	W +22.5	143.5	U 128
Mar 4	vsFSU	L 74-75	+1.5	W +0.5	144.5	O 149
Mar 7	@SYR	W 71-69	+5.5	W +7.5	141.5	U 140
Mar 10	vsSTAN	W 64-63	+4.5	W +5.5	136.5	U 127
Mar 11	vsNCSU	L 88-98	+8.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 186

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

YSU

W 74-59

+0.5

LONG

W 78-60

+3.5

EMU

W 78-66

−3.5

WVU

L 49-71

−16.5

BUCK

W 84-50

+17.5

UCF

L 67-77

−11.5

QUIN

L 75-83

−20.5

OSU

W 67-66

+6.5

TA&M

L 73-81

−4.5

HOF

L 73-80

−15.5

VILL

L 61-79

−7.5

BING

W 103-63

+15.5

PSU

W 80-46

+35.5

MIA

L 69-76

+2.5

CLEM

L 68-73

−1.5

SYR

L 72-83

−12.5

W 89-66

+21.5

LOU

L 59-100

−33.5

L 62-65

−5.5

NCSU

L 72-81

−2.5

WAKE

W 80-76

+2.5

CLEM

L 52-63

−0.5

UVA

L 47-67

−7.5

SMU

L 67-86

−14.5

DUKE

L 54-70

+1.5

UNC

L 65-79

−2.5

W 73-68

+1.5

STAN

L 67-75

+0.5

CAL

W 72-56

+22.5

FSU

L 74-75

+0.5

SYR

W 71-69

+7.5

STAN

W 64-63

+5.5

NCSU

L 88-98

−1.5

covered 16didn’t cover 17avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

YSU

W 74-59

−12.5

LONG

W 78-60

−7.5

EMU

W 78-66

+2.5

WVU

L 49-71

−14.5

BUCK

W 84-50

−7.5

UCF

L 67-77

−5.5

QUIN

L 75-83

+17.5

OSU

W 67-66

−15.5

TA&M

L 73-81

+1.5

HOF

L 73-80

+18.5

VILL

L 61-79

+1.5

BING

W 103-63

+31.5

PSU

W 80-46

−20.5

MIA

L 69-76

+0.5

CLEM

L 68-73

+5.5

SYR

L 72-83

+12.5

W 89-66

+9.5

LOU

L 59-100

+6.5

L 62-65

−10.5

NCSU

L 72-81

+8.5

WAKE

W 80-76

+5.5

CLEM

L 52-63

−20.5

UVA

L 47-67

−28.5

SMU

L 67-86

+5.5

DUKE

L 54-70

−12.5

UNC

L 65-79

+1.5

W 73-68

+0.5

STAN

L 67-75

+3.5

CAL

W 72-56

−15.5

FSU

L 74-75

+4.5

SYR

W 71-69

−1.5

STAN

W 64-63

−9.5

NCSU

L 88-98

+41.5

over 19under 14avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Oklahoma has the better starters

Position by position: Oklahoma 1, Pitt 0, even 4

OklahomaBetterPitt

G B. Edwards TR12.7 pts · 5.9 reb · 4.9 ast Score 93

OUSmall

G N. George TR10.9 pts · 3 reb · 5.4 ast Score 75

G X. Brown15.4 pts · 3.2 reb · 3.3 ast Score 92

Even

G A. Sumler TR19.3 pts · 4.6 reb · 3.9 ast Score 93

G T. Hendricks TR11.1 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.9 ast Score 60

Even

F T. Rudovskii TR13.1 pts · 4.8 reb · 1.8 ast Score 59

F D. Brennan TR12.4 pts · 10.3 reb · 2 ast Score 95

Even

F B. Ndongo TR11.8 pts · 8.1 reb · 2.4 ast Score 90

F D. Reid11.7 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 84

Even

C A. Mighty TR13.3 pts · 10.9 reb · 1 ast Score 71

OklahomaBetterPitt

OU offense28th of 366 · +6.6

Even

PITT defense59th of 366 · +1.3

OU defense51st of 366 · +1.9

Even

PITT offense87th of 366 · +0.2

Backcourt+6.7 · 3 players

OUSmall

Backcourt+4.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+6.9 · 2 players

OUSmall

Frontcourt+5.4 · 3 players

Bench+2.0 · 5 players

OUBig

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestOU betterPITT betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Oklahoma

Guards

B. Edwards33 min · TRX. Brown32 minT. Hendricks31 min · TRP. Isaacs22 min · TRD. Forsythe17 minB. MoserNew

Forwards

D. Brennan31 min · TRD. Reid28 minK. Rooths16 min · TRK. Rogers8 minF. KeeffeNewG. MayfieldNew

Centers

Y. Yaak15 min · TR

Pitt

Guards

N. George32 min · TRA. Sumler31 min · TRC. Hawkins27 min · TRJ. Powell16 min · TRJ. Bethea8 min · TRM. Moore6 min

Forwards

T. Rudovskii32 min · TRB. Ndongo27 min · TRA. Souare8 min · TRD. Diomande8 min · TRB. MayhewNewJ. NelsonNew

Centers

A. Mighty32 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

OU82.9 #29

PITT70.5 #274

Points per possession

OU1.19 #23

PITT1.08 #181

Pace (possessions)

OU69.4 #154

PITT65.0 #345

Shooting

Effective FG%

OU54.9 #40

PITT51.0 #193

3-point %

OU36.5 #41

PITT33.4 #206

3-point attempt rate

OU43.6 #97

PITT42.6 #124

Free throw rate

OU35.5 #161

PITT30.4 #300

Possessions

Turnover rate

OU14.3 #33

PITT17.2 #223

Offensive rebound rate

OU32.8 #92

PITT33.9 #72

Assists per game

OU14.5 #116

PITT13.2 #197

Defense

Points allowed

OU77.4 #248

PITT71.8 #101

Points allowed per possession

OU1.12 #271

PITT1.11 #237

Opponent effective FG%

OU51.0 #162

PITT53.4 #279

Opponent 3-point %

OU34.1 #189

PITT35.2 #263

Turnovers forced

OU15.5 #247

PITT16.3 #202

Defensive rebound rate

OU67.1 #296

PITT71.9 #68

Steals per game

OU6.3 #193

PITT6.5 #172

Blocks per game

OU3.9 #89

PITT3.1 #203

OU		PITT
Scoring
82.9 #29	Points per game	70.5 #274
1.19 #23	Points per possession	1.08 #181
69.4 #154	Pace (possessions)	65.0 #345
Shooting
54.9 #40	Effective FG%	51.0 #193
36.5 #41	3-point %	33.4 #206
43.6 #97	3-point attempt rate	42.6 #124
35.5 #161	Free throw rate	30.4 #300
Possessions
14.3 #33	Turnover rate	17.2 #223
32.8 #92	Offensive rebound rate	33.9 #72
14.5 #116	Assists per game	13.2 #197
Defense
77.4 #248	Points allowed	71.8 #101
1.12 #271	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #237
51.0 #162	Opponent effective FG%	53.4 #279
34.1 #189	Opponent 3-point %	35.2 #263
15.5 #247	Turnovers forced	16.3 #202
67.1 #296	Defensive rebound rate	71.9 #68
6.3 #193	Steals per game	6.5 #172
3.9 #89	Blocks per game	3.1 #203

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Oklahoma

21-16 in 2025-26 overall · 9-12 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs West Virginia82–89
Wvs Baylor82–69
Wvs Colorado90–86
Lvs Arkansas79–82
Wvs Texas A&M83–63

A week or more of rest.

Pitt

13-20 in 2025-26 overall · 6-14 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs NC State88–98
Wvs Stanford64–63
W@ Syracuse71–69
Lvs Florida St74–75
W@ California72–56

A week or more of rest.

Oklahoma Sooners vs Pittsburgh Panthers

What could decide it: OU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Oklahoma

Pitt

Oklahoma has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Oklahoma

Pitt