Idaho Vandals at Nevada Wolf Pack: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 18, 10:00 PM ETLawlor Events Center · at Nevada

#247IDHOIdaho

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Idaho and Nevada
IDHO	This season	NEV
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NEV 81–65 · win probability NEV 92%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 146.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NEV has more of the edges

IDHO 1, NEV 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

NEVBig

IDHO offense vs NEV defense

Offense 253rd of 366 against a defense 73rd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

IDHO has played the 262nd-hardest schedule, NEV the 94th. A record against a soft schedule means less

NEVBig

NEV offense vs IDHO defense

Offense 104th of 366 against a defense 233rd, on the model’s ratings

NEVSmall

Three-pointers

IDHO hits 34.1% and allows 35.2%; NEV hits 35.8% and allows 33.7%. Threes are 47.0% and 32.3% of their shots

NEVSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: IDHO 34.6, NEV 44.8. Allowed: IDHO 38.5, NEV 38.9

NEVSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: IDHO 15.0%, NEV 14.8%. Forced: IDHO 15.0%, NEV 17.0%

NEVSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: IDHO 28.4%, NEV 32.2%. Defensive: IDHO 75.8%, NEV 73.1%

NEVSmall

Home court

NEV at home. This season: NEV 0-0 at home, IDHO 0-0 away

IDHOSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: IDHO 51.4 and allows 50.5; NEV 50.0 and allows 51.1

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: IDHO plays 69.4 a game (153rd fastest), NEV 67.7 (243rd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: IDHO 23%, NEV 38%. Transfers in: IDHO 3, NEV 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	NEV -15.8	—
Total	—	146.4	—
Projected score	—	IDHO 65.3 · NEV 81.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NEV -9.3	—
1H total	68.5	—
1H projected score	IDHO 29.6 · NEV 38.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IDHO WWWWL	16-17	48%	7-9	—
NEV WLWWW	22-15	59%	12-7	—

Venue/role: IDHO away; NEV home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
IDHO UOOUU	14-19	42%	18-15
NEV OUOUU	20-17	54%	24-13

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IDHO	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
NEV	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Idaho

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 20	vs CSUB	L63–64LU
Nov 27	@ WSU	W83–81WO
Dec 3	@ UNCO	L67–76LU

Nevada

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 23	vs SF	W81–65WO
Nov 24	vs SCU	L83–98LO
Dec 2	vs PAC	W78–77LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Idaho

33 games played

Straight up

18-15

55% wins

Against the spread

16-17

48% covers · avg +0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-19

42% overs · avg −1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1555%

W L L W L W W L W L W L W L W W L L W L L L W L W W L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1748%

W L L W L W W L W L L L W L W L L L W L L L W L W W L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1942%

O U U U O U O O U U O U O U U O U O U U U O O U O U U O U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@WSU	W 83-81	+7.5	W +9.5	154.5	O 164
Nov 12	@USD	L 74-78	-1.5	L −5.5	155.5	U 152
Nov 15	@UCSD	L 67-75	+5.5	L −2.5	148.5	U 142
Nov 26	vsCSUN	W 78-64	-1.5	W +12.5	159.5	U 142
Nov 28	vsSHSU	L 68-94	-1.5	L −27.5	154.5	O 162
Dec 3	vsUND	W 90-58	-11.5	W +20.5	151.5	U 148
Dec 6	@SDST	W 84-81	+5.5	W +8.5	147.5	O 165
Dec 10	@ND	L 65-80	+11.5	L −3.5	144.5	O 145
Dec 21	@CP	W 83-80	-1.5	W +1.5	167.5	U 163
Dec 23	@CSUB	L 63-64	-7.5	L −8.5	150.5	U 127
Jan 3	vsEWU	W 84-81	-6.5	L −3.5	158.5	O 165
Jan 8	vsMONT	L 73-79	-4.5	L −10.5	154.5	U 152
Jan 10	vsMTST	W 92-89	-1.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 181
Jan 15	@IDST	L 68-76	+2.5	L −5.5	149.5	U 144
Jan 17	@WEB	W 75-67	-1.5	W +6.5	158.5	U 142
Jan 22	vsSAC	W 86-76	-10.5	L −0.5	161.5	O 162
Jan 24	vsPRST	L 66-69	-1.5	L −4.5	145.5	U 135
Jan 29	@UNCO	L 83-91	+2.5	L −5.5	155.5	O 174
Jan 31	@NAU	W 79-62	-5.5	W +11.5	146.5	U 141
Feb 5	@MTST	L 66-73	+2.5	L −4.5	147.5	U 139
Feb 7	@MONT	L 68-73	+1.5	L −3.5	152.5	U 141
Feb 12	vsWEB	L 72-83	-5.5	L −16.5	153.5	O 155
Feb 14	vsIDST	W 99-69	-6.5	W +23.5	146.5	O 168
Feb 19	@PRST	L 67-77	+3.5	L −6.5	145.5	U 144
Feb 21	@SAC	W 86-80	-4.5	W +1.5	163.5	O 166
Feb 26	vsNAU	W 78-58	-10.5	W +9.5	145.5	U 136
Feb 28	vsUNCO	L 67-76	-2.5	L −11.5	156.5	U 143
Mar 2	@EWU	W 85-81	+3.5	W +7.5	151.5	O 166
Mar 7	vsSAC	W 68-45	-6.5	W +16.5	158.5	U 113
Mar 8	vsMTST	W 78-74	-1.5	W +2.5	143.5	O 152
Mar 10	vsEWU	W 81-68	-1.5	W +11.5	148.5	O 149
Mar 11	vsMONT	W 77-66	-3.5	W +7.5	147.5	U 143
Mar 19	vsHOU	L 47-78	+24.5	L −6.5	137.5	U 125

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WSU

W 83-81

+9.5

USD

L 74-78

−5.5

UCSD

L 67-75

−2.5

CSUN

W 78-64

+12.5

SHSU

L 68-94

−27.5

UND

W 90-58

+20.5

SDST

W 84-81

+8.5

L 65-80

−3.5

W 83-80

+1.5

CSUB

L 63-64

−8.5

EWU

W 84-81

−3.5

MONT

L 73-79

−10.5

MTST

W 92-89

+1.5

IDST

L 68-76

−5.5

WEB

W 75-67

+6.5

SAC

W 86-76

−0.5

PRST

L 66-69

−4.5

UNCO

L 83-91

−5.5

NAU

W 79-62

+11.5

MTST

L 66-73

−4.5

MONT

L 68-73

−3.5

WEB

L 72-83

−16.5

IDST

W 99-69

+23.5

PRST

L 67-77

−6.5

SAC

W 86-80

+1.5

NAU

W 78-58

+9.5

UNCO

L 67-76

−11.5

EWU

W 85-81

+7.5

SAC

W 68-45

+16.5

MTST

W 78-74

+2.5

EWU

W 81-68

+11.5

MONT

W 77-66

+7.5

HOU

L 47-78

−6.5

covered 16didn’t cover 17avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WSU

W 83-81

+9.5

USD

L 74-78

−3.5

UCSD

L 67-75

−6.5

CSUN

W 78-64

−17.5

SHSU

L 68-94

+7.5

UND

W 90-58

−3.5

SDST

W 84-81

+17.5

L 65-80

+0.5

W 83-80

−4.5

CSUB

L 63-64

−23.5

EWU

W 84-81

+6.5

MONT

L 73-79

−2.5

MTST

W 92-89

+36.5

IDST

L 68-76

−5.5

WEB

W 75-67

−16.5

SAC

W 86-76

+0.5

PRST

L 66-69

−10.5

UNCO

L 83-91

+18.5

NAU

W 79-62

−5.5

MTST

L 66-73

−8.5

MONT

L 68-73

−11.5

WEB

L 72-83

+1.5

IDST

W 99-69

+21.5

PRST

L 67-77

−1.5

SAC

W 86-80

+2.5

NAU

W 78-58

−9.5

UNCO

L 67-76

−13.5

EWU

W 85-81

+14.5

SAC

W 68-45

−45.5

MTST

W 78-74

+8.5

EWU

W 81-68

+0.5

MONT

W 77-66

−4.5

HOU

L 47-78

−12.5

over 14under 19avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nevada

37 games played

Straight up

24-13

65% wins

Against the spread

22-15

59% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-17

54% overs · avg +2.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

24-1365%

W W W L L W L W W W W W W W L W L W W L W W L W L L W W L L W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

22-1559%

W L L L L W L W W W L W W L L W W W W W W W W L L L W W L L L W W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

20-1754%

U O O O O U O O U U O O U U U O U O O O U O O U U O O U O O U U O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsLT	W 77-50	-9.5	W +17.5	136.5	U 127
Nov 8	vsPAC	W 78-77	-13.5	L −12.5	139.5	O 155
Nov 12	vsSIU	W 86-81	-11.5	L −6.5	152.5	O 167
Nov 15	@SCU	L 83-98	+6.5	L −8.5	144.5	O 181
Nov 18	vsUCD	L 71-75	-12.5	L −16.5	143.5	O 146
Nov 22	vsUCSB	W 77-64	-5.5	W +7.5	147.5	U 141
Nov 27	vsWASH	L 66-83	+3.5	L −13.5	145.5	O 149
Nov 28	vsSF	W 81-65	+5.5	W +21.5	142.5	O 146
Dec 2	vsUCSD	W 76-70	-5.5	W +0.5	149.5	U 146
Dec 7	@WSU	W 78-64	+2.5	W +16.5	145.5	U 142
Dec 13	vsDUQ	W 78-75	-5.5	L −2.5	151.5	O 153
Dec 20	vsBOIS	W 81-66	+3.5	W +18.5	141.5	O 147
Dec 30	@CSU	W 75-62	+1.5	W +14.5	139.5	U 137
Jan 3	@FRES	W 66-65	-4.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 131
Jan 6	vsSDSU	L 68-73	-1.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 141
Jan 10	vsWYO	W 92-83	-3.5	W +5.5	143.5	O 175
Jan 14	@USU	L 62-71	+13.5	W +4.5	147.5	U 133
Jan 17	@AF	W 81-66	-14.5	W +0.5	134.5	O 147
Jan 20	vsSJSU	W 87-54	-16.5	W +16.5	137.5	O 141
Jan 24	@UNM	L 73-80	+8.5	W +1.5	150.5	O 153
Jan 27	vsGCU	W 66-60	-3.5	W +2.5	143.5	U 126
Jan 30	vsUNLV	W 89-76	-7.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 165
Feb 3	@BOIS	L 87-91	+6.5	W +2.5	141.5	O 178
Feb 7	vsFRES	W 69-59	-11.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 128
Feb 14	@SDSU	L 57-71	+7.5	L −6.5	139.5	U 128
Feb 17	@SJSU	L 71-87	-10.5	L −26.5	141.5	O 158
Feb 21	vsUSU	W 80-77	+5.5	W +8.5	146.5	O 157
Feb 24	vsUNM	W 67-60	-1.5	W +5.5	148.5	U 127
Feb 28	@UNLV	L 83-85	-1.5	L −3.5	150.5	O 168
Mar 3	@WYO	L 73-83	-1.5	L −11.5	143.5	O 156
Mar 7	vsAF	W 74-59	-24.5	L −9.5	144.5	U 133
Mar 11	vsAF	W 80-45	-19.5	W +15.5	140.5	U 125
Mar 12	vsGCU	W 84-80	+3.5	W +7.5	137.5	O 164
Mar 13	vsUSU	L 66-79	+6.5	L −6.5	145.5	U 145
Mar 18	vsMUR	W 89-75	-8.5	W +5.5	159.5	O 164
Mar 21	vsLIB	W 73-63	-7.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 136
Mar 25	@AUB	L 69-75	+8.5	W +2.5	151.5	U 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 77-50

+17.5

PAC

W 78-77

−12.5

SIU

W 86-81

−6.5

SCU

L 83-98

−8.5

UCD

L 71-75

−16.5

UCSB

W 77-64

+7.5

WASH

L 66-83

−13.5

W 81-65

+21.5

UCSD

W 76-70

+0.5

WSU

W 78-64

+16.5

DUQ

W 78-75

−2.5

BOIS

W 81-66

+18.5

CSU

W 75-62

+14.5

FRES

W 66-65

−3.5

SDSU

L 68-73

−6.5

WYO

W 92-83

+5.5

USU

L 62-71

+4.5

W 81-66

+0.5

SJSU

W 87-54

+16.5

UNM

L 73-80

+1.5

GCU

W 66-60

+2.5

UNLV

W 89-76

+5.5

BOIS

L 87-91

+2.5

FRES

W 69-59

−1.5

SDSU

L 57-71

−6.5

SJSU

L 71-87

−26.5

USU

W 80-77

+8.5

UNM

W 67-60

+5.5

UNLV

L 83-85

−3.5

WYO

L 73-83

−11.5

W 74-59

−9.5

W 80-45

+15.5

GCU

W 84-80

+7.5

USU

L 66-79

−6.5

MUR

W 89-75

+5.5

LIB

W 73-63

+2.5

AUB

L 69-75

+2.5

covered 22didn’t cover 15avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 77-50

−9.5

PAC

W 78-77

+15.5

SIU

W 86-81

+14.5

SCU

L 83-98

+36.5

UCD

L 71-75

+2.5

UCSB

W 77-64

−6.5

WASH

L 66-83

+3.5

W 81-65

+3.5

UCSD

W 76-70

−3.5

WSU

W 78-64

−3.5

DUQ

W 78-75

+1.5

BOIS

W 81-66

+5.5

CSU

W 75-62

−2.5

FRES

W 66-65

−15.5

SDSU

L 68-73

−0.5

WYO

W 92-83

+31.5

USU

L 62-71

−14.5

W 81-66

+12.5

SJSU

W 87-54

+3.5

UNM

L 73-80

+2.5

GCU

W 66-60

−17.5

UNLV

W 89-76

+17.5

BOIS

L 87-91

+36.5

FRES

W 69-59

−21.5

SDSU

L 57-71

−11.5

SJSU

L 71-87

+16.5

USU

W 80-77

+10.5

UNM

W 67-60

−21.5

UNLV

L 83-85

+17.5

WYO

L 73-83

+12.5

W 74-59

−11.5

W 80-45

−15.5

GCU

W 84-80

+26.5

USU

L 66-79

−0.5

MUR

W 89-75

+4.5

LIB

W 73-63

−10.5

AUB

L 69-75

−7.5

over 20under 17avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nevada has the better starters

Position by position: Idaho 0, Nevada 3, even 2

IdahoBetterNevada

G K. Gonzalez18 pts · 1 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

G S. Phipps TR13.7 pts · 5.9 reb · 5.1 ast Score 77

G R. Lafferty TR0.9 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.3 ast Not ranked

No call

G K. Kensie TR10.8 pts · 6.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 54

G M. Klapper2.8 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 35

NEVSmall

G P. Bandelj TR12.7 pts · 3.9 reb · 3.2 ast Score 57

F H. Ward TR5 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.8 ast Score 35

NEVBig

G V. Weems10.1 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 84

F S. Joba4.9 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.4 ast Score 25

NEVBig

F E. Price12.8 pts · 8.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 91

IdahoBetterNevada

IDHO offense253rd of 366 · -7.6

NEVBig

NEV defense73rd of 366 · +0.7

IDHO defense233rd of 366 · -6.2

NEVBig

NEV offense104th of 366 · -1.4

Backcourt-1.6 · 3 players

NEVBig

Backcourt+2.1 · 4 players

Frontcourt-1.9 · 2 players

NEVBig

Frontcourt+3.4 · 1 player

Bench-0.2 · 1 player

IDHOSmall

Bench-1.3 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestIDHO betterNEV betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Idaho

Guards

K. Gonzalez18 minR. Lafferty13 min · TRM. Klapper12 minK. Wynott10 min · TRB. KennisonNewT. WalNew

Forwards

H. Ward19 min · TRS. Joba17 minD. Trejo-DelgadoNewM. DiaoNewW. JensonNewN. Newman-GomezNew

Nevada

Guards

S. Phipps34 min · TRK. Kensie31 min · TRP. Bandelj31 min · TRV. Weems25 minP. White14 minM. Walker8 min

Forwards

E. Price30 minH. LucasNewK. SnyderNew

Centers

S. Majok12 min · TRC. Lath4 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

IDHO75.8 #147

NEV76.0 #141

Points per possession

IDHO1.10 #145

NEV1.12 #96

Pace (possessions)

IDHO69.4 #153

NEV67.7 #243

Shooting

Effective FG%

IDHO51.4 #177

NEV50.0 #236

3-point %

IDHO34.1 #168

NEV35.8 #70

3-point attempt rate

IDHO47.0 #34

NEV32.3 #326

Free throw rate

IDHO34.6 #193

NEV44.8 #6

Possessions

Turnover rate

IDHO15.0 #69

NEV14.8 #56

Offensive rebound rate

IDHO28.4 #250

NEV32.2 #119

Assists per game

IDHO11.4 #313

NEV14.5 #119

Defense

Points allowed

IDHO74.1 #157

NEV71.5 #92

Points allowed per possession

IDHO1.06 #112

NEV1.06 #101

Opponent effective FG%

IDHO50.5 #128

NEV51.1 #166

Opponent 3-point %

IDHO35.2 #264

NEV33.7 #168

Turnovers forced

IDHO15.0 #288

NEV17.0 #150

Defensive rebound rate

IDHO75.8 #5

NEV73.1 #33

Steals per game

IDHO5.6 #282

NEV6.6 #168

Blocks per game

IDHO2.4 #319

NEV3.8 #106

IDHO		NEV
Scoring
75.8 #147	Points per game	76.0 #141
1.10 #145	Points per possession	1.12 #96
69.4 #153	Pace (possessions)	67.7 #243
Shooting
51.4 #177	Effective FG%	50.0 #236
34.1 #168	3-point %	35.8 #70
47.0 #34	3-point attempt rate	32.3 #326
34.6 #193	Free throw rate	44.8 #6
Possessions
15.0 #69	Turnover rate	14.8 #56
28.4 #250	Offensive rebound rate	32.2 #119
11.4 #313	Assists per game	14.5 #119
Defense
74.1 #157	Points allowed	71.5 #92
1.06 #112	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #101
50.5 #128	Opponent effective FG%	51.1 #166
35.2 #264	Opponent 3-point %	33.7 #168
15.0 #288	Turnovers forced	17.0 #150
75.8 #5	Defensive rebound rate	73.1 #33
5.6 #282	Steals per game	6.6 #168
2.4 #319	Blocks per game	3.8 #106

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Idaho

18-15 in 2025-26 overall · 13-9 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Houston47–78
Wvs Montana77–66
Wvs E Washington81–68
Wvs Montana St78–74
Wvs Sacramento St68–45

A week or more of rest.

Nevada

24-13 in 2025-26 overall · 14-9 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Auburn69–75
Wvs Liberty73–63
Wvs Murray St89–75
Lvs Utah State66–79
Wvs Grand Canyon84–80

A week or more of rest.

Idaho Vandals at Nevada Wolf Pack

What could decide it: NEV has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Idaho

Nevada

Nevada has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Idaho

Nevada