Cal State Fullerton Titans at UCLA Bruins: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 18, 10:30 PM ETPauley Pavilion · at UCLA

#26UCLAUCLA AP #22

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Fullerton and UCLA
CSUF	This season	UCLA
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UCLA 89–61 · win probability UCLA 99%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 149.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UCLA has more of the edges

CSUF 1, UCLA 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UCLABig

UCLA offense vs CSUF defense

Offense 47th of 366 against a defense 344th, on the model’s ratings

UCLABig

CSUF offense vs UCLA defense

Offense 272nd of 366 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: CSUF plays 75.5 a game (3rd fastest), UCLA 66.5 (297th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

CSUF has played the 164th-hardest schedule, UCLA the 22nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

UCLABig

Shooting

Effective FG%: CSUF 51.4 and allows 54.3; UCLA 53.4 and allows 50.4

UCLABig

Three-pointers

CSUF hits 34.2% and allows 34.0%; UCLA hits 37.9% and allows 32.0%. Threes are 43.1% and 35.5% of their shots

CSUFSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: CSUF 37.8, UCLA 33.1. Allowed: CSUF 35.3, UCLA 34.4

UCLASmall

Home court

UCLA at home. This season: UCLA 0-0 at home, CSUF 0-0 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CSUF 24.6%, UCLA 31.1%. Defensive: CSUF 71.7%, UCLA 66.7%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CSUF 39%, UCLA 50%. Transfers in: CSUF 1, UCLA 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CSUF 15.3%, UCLA 13.4%. Forced: CSUF 19.4%, UCLA 18.5%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UCLA -27.8	—
Total	—	149.9	—
Projected score	—	CSUF 61.1 · UCLA 88.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UCLA -16.4	—
1H total	70.1	—
1H projected score	CSUF 26.8 · UCLA 43.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CSUF WWWWL	19-12	61%	8-7	—
UCLA WWWLL	17-19	47%	10-8	—

Venue/role: CSUF away; UCLA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
CSUF OUUUU	13-18	42%	16-16
UCLA UOUUU	17-19	47%	24-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CSUF	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
UCLA	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Fullerton

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	@ PRST	No recent meeting
Nov 28	vs WEB	No recent meeting
Dec 3	vs SAC	W62–60WU

UCLA

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	vs DEL	No recent meeting
Nov 26	vs SMC	W72–56WO
Dec 1	vs ORE	W73–57WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

CSUF 0–1 UCLAUCLA leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · CSUF 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 22, 2024-25	CSUF 47 @ UCLA 80	UCLA -26.5	UCLA W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Fullerton

32 games played

Straight up

16-16

50% wins

Against the spread

19-12

61% covers · avg +2.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-18

42% overs · avg +1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1650%

L L L L W L W L L W L L W L W W L L W W L W W W L W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1261%

W L L L W W W L–W W L W L W W L L W W L W W W L L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-1842%

O U U O O O U O–O O O O U U U U U U U U U U O U O O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@WYO	L 82-92	+15.5	W +5.5	154.5	O 174
Nov 10	@CAL	L 65-93	+22.5	L −5.5	162.5	U 158
Nov 15	vsPAC	L 73-85	+6.5	L −5.5	159.5	U 158
Nov 21	@PORT	L 85-103	+6.5	L −11.5	164.5	O 188
Nov 22	vsSTMN	W 88-80	+11.5	W +19.5	162.5	O 168
Nov 23	vsUNCO	L 93-97	+8.5	W +4.5	164.5	O 190
Nov 29	vsPEPP	W 83-69	-1.5	W +12.5	161.5	U 152
Dec 4	vsCP	L 91-94	-1.5	L −4.5	177.5	O 185
Dec 6	@HAW	L 59-69	—	—	—	—
Dec 13	@DEN	W 105-86	+3.5	W +22.5	165.5	O 191
Dec 21	@OKST	L 89-94	+19.5	W +14.5	176.5	O 183
Dec 28	@SMU	L 63-110	+21.5	L −25.5	170.5	O 173
Jan 1	vsUCSB	W 95-84	+3.5	W +14.5	155.5	O 179
Jan 3	vsUCI	L 64-86	+3.5	L −18.5	160.5	U 150
Jan 8	@UCSD	W 88-71	+13.5	W +30.5	166.5	U 159
Jan 10	vsCSUN	W 86-79	-1.5	W +5.5	173.5	U 165
Jan 15	@UCD	L 69-74	+3.5	L −1.5	166.5	U 143
Jan 17	@UCR	L 72-81	-3.5	L −12.5	157.5	U 153
Jan 22	vsLBSU	W 71-61	-3.5	W +6.5	160.5	U 132
Jan 24	@CP	W 93-78	-1.5	W +13.5	173.5	U 171
Jan 31	@UCSB	L 69-83	+8.5	L −5.5	153.5	U 152
Feb 5	vsUCR	W 78-72	-5.5	W +0.5	156.5	U 150
Feb 7	vsCSUB	W 82-66	-9.5	W +6.5	157.5	U 148
Feb 12	@LBSU	W 86-82	+2.5	W +6.5	156.5	O 168
Feb 14	@UCI	L 65-86	+7.5	L −13.5	154.5	U 151
Feb 19	vsUCD	W 93-92	-1.5	L −0.5	156.5	O 185
Feb 21	@CSUB	W 88-80	-5.5	W +2.5	160.5	O 168
Feb 28	vsHAW	L 85-87	+3.5	W +1.5	158.5	O 172
Mar 5	vsUCSD	W 75-71	+2.5	W +6.5	156.5	U 146
Mar 7	@CSUN	W 90-77	+5.5	W +18.5	170.5	U 167
Mar 12	vsUCD	W 82-70	-1.5	W +10.5	155.5	U 152
Mar 13	vsHAW	L 63-78	+5.5	L −9.5	157.5	U 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WYO

L 82-92

+5.5

CAL

L 65-93

−5.5

PAC

L 73-85

−5.5

PORT

L 85-103

−11.5

STMN

W 88-80

+19.5

UNCO

L 93-97

+4.5

PEPP

W 83-69

+12.5

L 91-94

−4.5

DEN

W 105-86

+22.5

OKST

L 89-94

+14.5

SMU

L 63-110

−25.5

UCSB

W 95-84

+14.5

UCI

L 64-86

−18.5

UCSD

W 88-71

+30.5

CSUN

W 86-79

+5.5

UCD

L 69-74

−1.5

UCR

L 72-81

−12.5

LBSU

W 71-61

+6.5

W 93-78

+13.5

UCSB

L 69-83

−5.5

UCR

W 78-72

+0.5

CSUB

W 82-66

+6.5

LBSU

W 86-82

+6.5

UCI

L 65-86

−13.5

UCD

W 93-92

−0.5

CSUB

W 88-80

+2.5

HAW

L 85-87

+1.5

UCSD

W 75-71

+6.5

CSUN

W 90-77

+18.5

UCD

W 82-70

+10.5

HAW

L 63-78

−9.5

covered 19didn’t cover 12avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WYO

L 82-92

+19.5

CAL

L 65-93

−4.5

PAC

L 73-85

−1.5

PORT

L 85-103

+23.5

STMN

W 88-80

+5.5

UNCO

L 93-97

+25.5

PEPP

W 83-69

−9.5

L 91-94

+7.5

DEN

W 105-86

+25.5

OKST

L 89-94

+6.5

SMU

L 63-110

+2.5

UCSB

W 95-84

+23.5

UCI

L 64-86

−10.5

UCSD

W 88-71

−7.5

CSUN

W 86-79

−8.5

UCD

L 69-74

−23.5

UCR

L 72-81

−4.5

LBSU

W 71-61

−28.5

W 93-78

−2.5

UCSB

L 69-83

−1.5

UCR

W 78-72

−6.5

CSUB

W 82-66

−9.5

LBSU

W 86-82

+11.5

UCI

L 65-86

−3.5

UCD

W 93-92

+28.5

CSUB

W 88-80

+7.5

HAW

L 85-87

+13.5

UCSD

W 75-71

−10.5

CSUN

W 90-77

−3.5

UCD

W 82-70

−3.5

HAW

L 63-78

−16.5

over 13under 18avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

UCLA

36 games played

Straight up

24-12

67% wins

Against the spread

17-19

47% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-19

47% overs · avg +2.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

24-1267%

W W W L W W L W W L W W W L L W W L W W W L W W L L W W L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1947%

L L L L W W L L W W W L W L L L W L W L W L W L L L W W L W W W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1947%

O U U U U O O O U O O O O U U U U O U U U O O O U O O U O U O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsEWU	W 80-74	-29.5	L −23.5	149.5	O 154
Nov 7	vsPEPP	W 74-63	-29.5	L −18.5	152.5	U 137
Nov 10	vsWGA	W 83-62	-30.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 145
Nov 14	vsARIZ	L 65-69	+1.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 134
Nov 18	vsSAC	W 79-48	-27.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 127
Nov 21	vsPRES	W 86-46	-25.5	W +14.5	131.5	O 132
Nov 25	vsCAL	L 72-80	-7.5	L −15.5	143.5	O 152
Dec 3	@WASH	W 82-80	-2.5	L −0.5	141.5	O 162
Dec 6	vsORE	W 74-63	-8.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 137
Dec 13	vsGONZ	L 72-82	+10.5	W +0.5	147.5	O 154
Dec 17	vsASU	W 90-77	-9.5	W +3.5	142.5	O 167
Dec 19	vsCP	W 108-87	-24.5	L −3.5	161.5	O 195
Dec 23	vsUCR	W 97-65	-24.5	W +7.5	148.5	O 162
Jan 3	@IOWA	L 61-74	+6.5	L −6.5	140.5	U 135
Jan 6	@WIS	L 72-80	+3.5	L −4.5	152.5	U 152
Jan 10	vsMD	W 67-55	-13.5	L −1.5	147.5	U 122
Jan 14	@PSU	W 71-60	-4.5	W +6.5	148.5	U 131
Jan 17	@OSU	L 74-86	+4.5	L −7.5	146.5	O 160
Jan 20	vsPUR	W 69-67	+5.5	W +7.5	147.5	U 136
Jan 24	vsNU	W 71-64	-7.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 135
Jan 28	@ORE	W 73-57	-4.5	W +11.5	136.5	U 130
Jan 31	vsIU	L 97-98	-3.5	L −4.5	144.5	O 195
Feb 3	vsRUTG	W 98-66	-13.5	W +18.5	142.5	O 164
Feb 7	vsWASH	W 77-73	-4.5	L −0.5	144.5	O 150
Feb 14	@MICH	L 56-86	+15.5	L −14.5	156.5	U 142
Feb 17	@MSU	L 59-82	+8.5	L −14.5	139.5	O 141
Feb 21	vsILL	W 95-94	+6.5	W +7.5	146.5	O 189
Feb 24	vsUSC	W 81-62	-6.5	W +12.5	150.5	U 143
Feb 28	@MINN	L 73-78	-1.5	L −6.5	136.5	O 151
Mar 3	vsNEB	W 72-52	-1.5	W +18.5	144.5	U 124
Mar 7	@USC	W 89-68	-4.5	W +16.5	151.5	O 157
Mar 12	vsRUTG	W 72-59	-10.5	W +2.5	141.5	U 131
Mar 13	vsMSU	W 88-84	+5.5	W +9.5	141.5	O 172
Mar 14	vsPUR	L 66-73	+7.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 139
Mar 20	vsUCF	W 75-71	-5.5	L −1.5	151.5	U 146
Mar 22	vsCONN	L 57-73	+5.5	L −10.5	135.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EWU

W 80-74

−23.5

PEPP

W 74-63

−18.5

WGA

W 83-62

−9.5

ARIZ

L 65-69

−2.5

SAC

W 79-48

+3.5

PRES

W 86-46

+14.5

CAL

L 72-80

−15.5

WASH

W 82-80

−0.5

ORE

W 74-63

+2.5

GONZ

L 72-82

+0.5

ASU

W 90-77

+3.5

W 108-87

−3.5

UCR

W 97-65

+7.5

IOWA

L 61-74

−6.5

WIS

L 72-80

−4.5

W 67-55

−1.5

PSU

W 71-60

+6.5

OSU

L 74-86

−7.5

PUR

W 69-67

+7.5

W 71-64

−0.5

ORE

W 73-57

+11.5

L 97-98

−4.5

RUTG

W 98-66

+18.5

WASH

W 77-73

−0.5

MICH

L 56-86

−14.5

MSU

L 59-82

−14.5

ILL

W 95-94

+7.5

USC

W 81-62

+12.5

MINN

L 73-78

−6.5

NEB

W 72-52

+18.5

USC

W 89-68

+16.5

RUTG

W 72-59

+2.5

MSU

W 88-84

+9.5

PUR

L 66-73

+0.5

UCF

W 75-71

−1.5

CONN

L 57-73

−10.5

covered 17didn’t cover 19avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EWU

W 80-74

+4.5

PEPP

W 74-63

−15.5

WGA

W 83-62

−1.5

ARIZ

L 65-69

−19.5

SAC

W 79-48

−19.5

PRES

W 86-46

+0.5

CAL

L 72-80

+8.5

WASH

W 82-80

+20.5

ORE

W 74-63

−9.5

GONZ

L 72-82

+6.5

ASU

W 90-77

+24.5

W 108-87

+33.5

UCR

W 97-65

+13.5

IOWA

L 61-74

−5.5

WIS

L 72-80

−0.5

W 67-55

−25.5

PSU

W 71-60

−17.5

OSU

L 74-86

+13.5

PUR

W 69-67

−11.5

W 71-64

−8.5

ORE

W 73-57

−6.5

L 97-98

+50.5

RUTG

W 98-66

+21.5

WASH

W 77-73

+5.5

MICH

L 56-86

−14.5

MSU

L 59-82

+1.5

ILL

W 95-94

+42.5

USC

W 81-62

−7.5

MINN

L 73-78

+14.5

NEB

W 72-52

−20.5

USC

W 89-68

+5.5

RUTG

W 72-59

−10.5

MSU

W 88-84

+30.5

PUR

L 66-73

−4.5

UCF

W 75-71

−5.5

CONN

L 57-73

−5.5

over 17under 19avg +2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UCLA has the better starters

Position by position: Fullerton 0, UCLA 4, even 1

FullertonBetterUCLA

G C. Williams9.4 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.1 ast Score 39

UCLASmall

G J. Petty TR9.9 pts · 3.9 reb · 2.2 ast Score 70

G B. Nunn5 pts · 2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 13

UCLABig

G T. Perry12.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 93

G D. White2.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 0

UCLABig

F E. Dailey11.6 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 88

G T. Jenkins TR0 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

F S. Macura TR5 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 71

F K. De Luna4.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.9 ast Score 7

UCLABig

C X. Booker7.3 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 75

FullertonBetterUCLA

CSUF offense272nd of 366 · -8.3

UCLABig

UCLA defense14th of 366 · +6.4

CSUF defense344th of 366 · -9.2

UCLABig

UCLA offense47th of 366 · +3.8

Backcourt-6.1 · 4 players

UCLABig

Backcourt+3.8 · 2 players

Frontcourt-2.1 · 1 player

UCLABig

Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players

Bench-0.1 · 1 player

Even

Bench+0.2 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestCSUF betterUCLA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Fullerton

Guards

C. Williams27 minB. Nunn19 minD. White13 minT. Jenkins3 min · TRM. Quinlan2 minD. McConnellNew

Forwards

K. De Luna18 minR. ReynoldsNew

UCLA

Guards

J. Petty30 min · TRT. Perry30 minA. Robinson18 min · TRE. Freeny11 minM. AlstonNewJ. HouegbanNew

Forwards

E. Dailey28 minS. Macura19 min · TRB. Williams12 minJ. PhilonNewN. KusturicaNewG. GrinvaldsNew

Centers

X. Booker20 minF. Jovic18 min · TRJ. FloydNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CSUF80.3 #60

UCLA77.0 #115

Points per possession

CSUF1.07 #208

UCLA1.16 #48

Pace (possessions)

CSUF75.5 #3

UCLA66.5 #297

Shooting

Effective FG%

CSUF51.4 #180

UCLA53.4 #85

3-point %

CSUF34.2 #162

UCLA37.9 #19

3-point attempt rate

CSUF43.1 #108

UCLA35.5 #259

Free throw rate

CSUF37.8 #107

UCLA33.1 #237

Possessions

Turnover rate

CSUF15.3 #82

UCLA13.4 #14

Offensive rebound rate

CSUF24.6 #345

UCLA31.1 #162

Assists per game

CSUF15.0 #85

UCLA16.1 #45

Defense

Points allowed

CSUF82.2 #342

UCLA71.1 #75

Points allowed per possession

CSUF1.08 #181

UCLA1.07 #129

Opponent effective FG%

CSUF54.3 #307

UCLA50.4 #120

Opponent 3-point %

CSUF34.0 #185

UCLA32.0 #64

Turnovers forced

CSUF19.4 #34

UCLA18.5 #76

Defensive rebound rate

CSUF71.7 #80

UCLA66.7 #304

Steals per game

CSUF7.9 #45

UCLA6.7 #156

Blocks per game

CSUF2.8 #258

UCLA3.0 #218

CSUF		UCLA
Scoring
80.3 #60	Points per game	77.0 #115
1.07 #208	Points per possession	1.16 #48
75.5 #3	Pace (possessions)	66.5 #297
Shooting
51.4 #180	Effective FG%	53.4 #85
34.2 #162	3-point %	37.9 #19
43.1 #108	3-point attempt rate	35.5 #259
37.8 #107	Free throw rate	33.1 #237
Possessions
15.3 #82	Turnover rate	13.4 #14
24.6 #345	Offensive rebound rate	31.1 #162
15.0 #85	Assists per game	16.1 #45
Defense
82.2 #342	Points allowed	71.1 #75
1.08 #181	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #129
54.3 #307	Opponent effective FG%	50.4 #120
34.0 #185	Opponent 3-point %	32.0 #64
19.4 #34	Turnovers forced	18.5 #76
71.7 #80	Defensive rebound rate	66.7 #304
7.9 #45	Steals per game	6.7 #156
2.8 #258	Blocks per game	3.0 #218

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Fullerton

16-16 in 2025-26 overall · 13-9 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Hawai'i63–78
Wvs UC Davis82–70
W@ CSU Northridge90–77
Wvs UC San Diego75–71
Lvs Hawai'i85–87

A week or more of rest.

UCLA

24-12 in 2025-26 overall · 15-8 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UConn57–73
Wvs UCF75–71
Lvs Purdue66–73
Wvs Michigan St88–84
Wvs Rutgers72–59

A week or more of rest.

Cal State Fullerton Titans at UCLA Bruins

What could decide it: UCLA has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Fullerton

UCLA

UCLA has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Fullerton

UCLA