Nevada Wolf Pack vs Santa Clara Broncos: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 24, 7:00 PM ETAcrisure Arena · Neutral site

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nevada and Santa Clara
NEV	This season	SCU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NEV 77–75 · win probability NEV 55%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 152.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

NEV 2, SCU 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

NEVBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: NEV 44.8, SCU 25.5. Allowed: NEV 38.9, SCU 38.2

SCUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: NEV 50.0 and allows 51.1; SCU 54.5 and allows 52.0

NEVSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NEV 32.2%, SCU 36.4%. Defensive: NEV 73.1%, SCU 67.9%

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: NEV plays 67.7 a game (243rd fastest), SCU 69.7 (135th). Faster games mean more points

SCUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NEV 14.8%, SCU 15.3%. Forced: NEV 17.0%, SCU 20.1%

Even

NEV offense vs SCU defense

Offense 104th of 366 against a defense 137th, on the model’s ratings

Even

SCU offense vs NEV defense

Offense 93rd of 366 against a defense 73rd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

NEV has played the 94th-hardest schedule, SCU the 86th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NEV 38%, SCU 42%. Transfers in: NEV 5, SCU 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Three-pointers

NEV hits 35.8% and allows 33.7%; SCU hits 34.9% and allows 33.1%. Threes are 32.3% and 45.0% of their shots

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	NEV -1.5	—
Total	—	152.0	—
Projected score	—	NEV 76.8 · SCU 75.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NEV -1.0	—
1H total	71.1	—
1H projected score	NEV 36 · SCU 35	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
NEV WLWWW	22-15	59%	3-2	—
SCU WLWLL	18-16	53%	3-6	—

Venue/role: NEV neutral site; SCU neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
NEV OUOUU	20-17	54%	24-13
SCU OUUUO	19-15	56%	25-9

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NEV	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
SCU	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nevada

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	vs PAC	W78–77LO
Dec 9	vs LMU	L64–68LU
Dec 12	vs SHSU	W91–75WO

Santa Clara

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs UTU	W90–80LO
Dec 2	vs FRES	W81–66LU
Dec 5	@ GCU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

NEV 1–2 SCUSCU leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · NEV 1-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 15, 2025-26	NEV 83 @ SCU 98	SCU -6.5	SCU W
Nov 16, 2024-25	SCU 59 @ NEV 85	NEV -7.5	NEV W
Nov 16, 2021-22	NEV 74 @ SCU 96	SCU +2	SCU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nevada

37 games played

Straight up

24-13

65% wins

Against the spread

22-15

59% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-17

54% overs · avg +2.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

24-1365%

W W W L L W L W W W W W W W L W L W W L W W L W L L W W L L W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

22-1559%

W L L L L W L W W W L W W L L W W W W W W W W L L L W W L L L W W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

20-1754%

U O O O O U O O U U O O U U U O U O O O U O O U U O O U O O U U O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsLT	W 77-50	-9.5	W +17.5	136.5	U 127
Nov 8	vsPAC	W 78-77	-13.5	L −12.5	139.5	O 155
Nov 12	vsSIU	W 86-81	-11.5	L −6.5	152.5	O 167
Nov 15	@SCU	L 83-98	+6.5	L −8.5	144.5	O 181
Nov 18	vsUCD	L 71-75	-12.5	L −16.5	143.5	O 146
Nov 22	vsUCSB	W 77-64	-5.5	W +7.5	147.5	U 141
Nov 27	vsWASH	L 66-83	+3.5	L −13.5	145.5	O 149
Nov 28	vsSF	W 81-65	+5.5	W +21.5	142.5	O 146
Dec 2	vsUCSD	W 76-70	-5.5	W +0.5	149.5	U 146
Dec 7	@WSU	W 78-64	+2.5	W +16.5	145.5	U 142
Dec 13	vsDUQ	W 78-75	-5.5	L −2.5	151.5	O 153
Dec 20	vsBOIS	W 81-66	+3.5	W +18.5	141.5	O 147
Dec 30	@CSU	W 75-62	+1.5	W +14.5	139.5	U 137
Jan 3	@FRES	W 66-65	-4.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 131
Jan 6	vsSDSU	L 68-73	-1.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 141
Jan 10	vsWYO	W 92-83	-3.5	W +5.5	143.5	O 175
Jan 14	@USU	L 62-71	+13.5	W +4.5	147.5	U 133
Jan 17	@AF	W 81-66	-14.5	W +0.5	134.5	O 147
Jan 20	vsSJSU	W 87-54	-16.5	W +16.5	137.5	O 141
Jan 24	@UNM	L 73-80	+8.5	W +1.5	150.5	O 153
Jan 27	vsGCU	W 66-60	-3.5	W +2.5	143.5	U 126
Jan 30	vsUNLV	W 89-76	-7.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 165
Feb 3	@BOIS	L 87-91	+6.5	W +2.5	141.5	O 178
Feb 7	vsFRES	W 69-59	-11.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 128
Feb 14	@SDSU	L 57-71	+7.5	L −6.5	139.5	U 128
Feb 17	@SJSU	L 71-87	-10.5	L −26.5	141.5	O 158
Feb 21	vsUSU	W 80-77	+5.5	W +8.5	146.5	O 157
Feb 24	vsUNM	W 67-60	-1.5	W +5.5	148.5	U 127
Feb 28	@UNLV	L 83-85	-1.5	L −3.5	150.5	O 168
Mar 3	@WYO	L 73-83	-1.5	L −11.5	143.5	O 156
Mar 7	vsAF	W 74-59	-24.5	L −9.5	144.5	U 133
Mar 11	vsAF	W 80-45	-19.5	W +15.5	140.5	U 125
Mar 12	vsGCU	W 84-80	+3.5	W +7.5	137.5	O 164
Mar 13	vsUSU	L 66-79	+6.5	L −6.5	145.5	U 145
Mar 18	vsMUR	W 89-75	-8.5	W +5.5	159.5	O 164
Mar 21	vsLIB	W 73-63	-7.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 136
Mar 25	@AUB	L 69-75	+8.5	W +2.5	151.5	U 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 77-50

+17.5

PAC

W 78-77

−12.5

SIU

W 86-81

−6.5

SCU

L 83-98

−8.5

UCD

L 71-75

−16.5

UCSB

W 77-64

+7.5

WASH

L 66-83

−13.5

W 81-65

+21.5

UCSD

W 76-70

+0.5

WSU

W 78-64

+16.5

DUQ

W 78-75

−2.5

BOIS

W 81-66

+18.5

CSU

W 75-62

+14.5

FRES

W 66-65

−3.5

SDSU

L 68-73

−6.5

WYO

W 92-83

+5.5

USU

L 62-71

+4.5

W 81-66

+0.5

SJSU

W 87-54

+16.5

UNM

L 73-80

+1.5

GCU

W 66-60

+2.5

UNLV

W 89-76

+5.5

BOIS

L 87-91

+2.5

FRES

W 69-59

−1.5

SDSU

L 57-71

−6.5

SJSU

L 71-87

−26.5

USU

W 80-77

+8.5

UNM

W 67-60

+5.5

UNLV

L 83-85

−3.5

WYO

L 73-83

−11.5

W 74-59

−9.5

W 80-45

+15.5

GCU

W 84-80

+7.5

USU

L 66-79

−6.5

MUR

W 89-75

+5.5

LIB

W 73-63

+2.5

AUB

L 69-75

+2.5

covered 22didn’t cover 15avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 77-50

−9.5

PAC

W 78-77

+15.5

SIU

W 86-81

+14.5

SCU

L 83-98

+36.5

UCD

L 71-75

+2.5

UCSB

W 77-64

−6.5

WASH

L 66-83

+3.5

W 81-65

+3.5

UCSD

W 76-70

−3.5

WSU

W 78-64

−3.5

DUQ

W 78-75

+1.5

BOIS

W 81-66

+5.5

CSU

W 75-62

−2.5

FRES

W 66-65

−15.5

SDSU

L 68-73

−0.5

WYO

W 92-83

+31.5

USU

L 62-71

−14.5

W 81-66

+12.5

SJSU

W 87-54

+3.5

UNM

L 73-80

+2.5

GCU

W 66-60

−17.5

UNLV

W 89-76

+17.5

BOIS

L 87-91

+36.5

FRES

W 69-59

−21.5

SDSU

L 57-71

−11.5

SJSU

L 71-87

+16.5

USU

W 80-77

+10.5

UNM

W 67-60

−21.5

UNLV

L 83-85

+17.5

WYO

L 73-83

+12.5

W 74-59

−11.5

W 80-45

−15.5

GCU

W 84-80

+26.5

USU

L 66-79

−0.5

MUR

W 89-75

+4.5

LIB

W 73-63

−10.5

AUB

L 69-75

−7.5

over 20under 17avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Santa Clara

34 games played

Straight up

25-9

74% wins

Against the spread

18-16

53% covers · avg +2.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-15

56% overs · avg +4 pts vs the total

Straight up

25-974%

W W W W W L W W L L W L W W W W L W W W W W W W W W L W L W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

18-1653%

W W W L W W W L L L L L W L L W W W W W L W W W L L L W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

19-1556%

U U O U U U O O O O U O O O U O O O U U U O O U O O O O U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsMCN	W 79-67	-6.5	W +5.5	151.5	U 146
Nov 10	@XAV	W 87-68	+3.5	W +22.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 15	vsNEV	W 98-83	-6.5	W +8.5	144.5	O 181
Nov 18	vsIDST	W 64-55	-14.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 119
Nov 21	vsUL	W 80-43	-19.5	W +17.5	140.5	U 123
Nov 27	vsSLU	L 70-71	+1.5	W +0.5	158.5	U 141
Nov 28	vsMINN	W 86-75	-5.5	W +5.5	138.5	O 161
Dec 3	vsUTU	W 90-80	-20.5	L −10.5	144.5	O 170
Dec 6	@UNM	L 71-98	+1.5	L −25.5	153.5	O 169
Dec 13	vsASU	L 79-82	-1.5	L −4.5	154.5	O 161
Dec 17	vsUNT	W 63-60	-12.5	L −9.5	139.5	U 123
Dec 20	vsLUC	L 78-80	-15.5	L −17.5	151.5	O 158
Dec 28	@ORST	W 102-64	-7.5	W +30.5	150.5	O 166
Dec 30	@PORT	W 92-85	-13.5	L −6.5	157.5	O 177
Jan 2	vsPEPP	W 82-63	-20.5	L −1.5	150.5	U 145
Jan 4	vsUSD	W 98-70	-17.5	W +10.5	161.5	O 168
Jan 8	@GONZ	L 77-89	+17.5	W +5.5	163.5	O 166
Jan 10	vsLMU	W 103-72	-11.5	W +19.5	153.5	O 175
Jan 14	vsPAC	W 85-69	-12.5	W +3.5	154.5	U 154
Jan 17	vsSMC	W 62-54	-1.5	W +6.5	152.5	U 116
Jan 24	@USD	W 85-73	-13.5	L −1.5	162.5	U 158
Jan 28	vsSF	W 88-73	-9.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 161
Jan 31	@LMU	W 104-73	-8.5	W +22.5	153.5	O 177
Feb 4	@PAC	W 71-56	-6.5	W +8.5	151.5	U 127
Feb 7	@WSU	W 96-92	-8.5	L −4.5	160.5	O 188
Feb 11	vsSEA	W 84-72	-12.5	L −0.5	147.5	O 156
Feb 14	vsGONZ	L 86-94	+4.5	L −3.5	158.5	O 180
Feb 21	@SF	W 94-73	-6.5	W +14.5	158.5	O 167
Feb 25	@SMC	L 67-86	+5.5	L −13.5	153.5	U 153
Feb 28	vsORST	W 93-72	-15.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 165
Mar 8	vsPAC	W 76-68	-9.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 144
Mar 9	vsSMC	W 76-71	+4.5	W +9.5	150.5	U 147
Mar 10	vsGONZ	L 68-79	+8.5	L −2.5	157.5	U 147
Mar 20	vsUK	L 84-89	+3.5	L −1.5	157.5	O 173

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MCN

W 79-67

+5.5

XAV

W 87-68

+22.5

NEV

W 98-83

+8.5

IDST

W 64-55

−5.5

W 80-43

+17.5

SLU

L 70-71

+0.5

MINN

W 86-75

+5.5

UTU

W 90-80

−10.5

UNM

L 71-98

−25.5

ASU

L 79-82

−4.5

UNT

W 63-60

−9.5

LUC

L 78-80

−17.5

ORST

W 102-64

+30.5

PORT

W 92-85

−6.5

PEPP

W 82-63

−1.5

USD

W 98-70

+10.5

GONZ

L 77-89

+5.5

LMU

W 103-72

+19.5

PAC

W 85-69

+3.5

SMC

W 62-54

+6.5

USD

W 85-73

−1.5

W 88-73

+5.5

LMU

W 104-73

+22.5

PAC

W 71-56

+8.5

WSU

W 96-92

−4.5

SEA

W 84-72

−0.5

GONZ

L 86-94

−3.5

W 94-73

+14.5

SMC

L 67-86

−13.5

ORST

W 93-72

+5.5

PAC

W 76-68

−1.5

SMC

W 76-71

+9.5

GONZ

L 68-79

−2.5

L 84-89

−1.5

covered 18didn’t cover 16avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MCN

W 79-67

−5.5

XAV

W 87-68

−0.5

NEV

W 98-83

+36.5

IDST

W 64-55

−22.5

W 80-43

−17.5

SLU

L 70-71

−17.5

MINN

W 86-75

+22.5

UTU

W 90-80

+25.5

UNM

L 71-98

+15.5

ASU

L 79-82

+6.5

UNT

W 63-60

−16.5

LUC

L 78-80

+6.5

ORST

W 102-64

+15.5

PORT

W 92-85

+19.5

PEPP

W 82-63

−5.5

USD

W 98-70

+6.5

GONZ

L 77-89

+2.5

LMU

W 103-72

+21.5

PAC

W 85-69

−0.5

SMC

W 62-54

−36.5

USD

W 85-73

−4.5

W 88-73

+10.5

LMU

W 104-73

+23.5

PAC

W 71-56

−24.5

WSU

W 96-92

+27.5

SEA

W 84-72

+8.5

GONZ

L 86-94

+21.5

W 94-73

+8.5

SMC

L 67-86

−0.5

ORST

W 93-72

+11.5

PAC

W 76-68

−4.5

SMC

W 76-71

−3.5

GONZ

L 68-79

−10.5

L 84-89

+15.5

over 19under 15avg +4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nevada has the better starters

Position by position: Nevada 3, Santa Clara 0, even 2

NevadaBetterSanta Clara

G S. Phipps TR13.7 pts · 5.9 reb · 5.1 ast Score 77

NEVSmall

G J. Ensminger6.4 pts · 5.5 reb · 2.8 ast Score 53

G K. Kensie TR10.8 pts · 6.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 54

Even

G D. Castillo TR10.3 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 41

G P. Bandelj TR12.7 pts · 3.9 reb · 3.2 ast Score 57

Even

G S. Gavalyugov9 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 61

G V. Weems10.1 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 84

NEVBig

G T. Darlan5.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 35

F E. Price12.8 pts · 8.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 91

NEVBig

G F. Zugic TR5.2 pts · 2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 56

NevadaBetterSanta Clara

NEV offense104th of 366 · -1.4

Even

SCU defense137th of 366 · -2.8

NEV defense73rd of 366 · +0.7

Even

SCU offense93rd of 366 · -0.4

Backcourt+2.1 · 4 players

NEVBig

Backcourt-2.9 · 5 players

Frontcourt+3.4 · 1 player

No call

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

Bench-1.3 · 4 players

SCUSmall

Bench-0.2 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestNEV betterSCU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nevada

Guards

S. Phipps34 min · TRK. Kensie31 min · TRP. Bandelj31 min · TRV. Weems25 minP. White14 minM. Walker8 min

Forwards

E. Price30 minH. LucasNewK. SnyderNew

Centers

S. Majok12 min · TRC. Lath4 min · TR

Santa Clara

Guards

J. Ensminger29 minD. Castillo28 min · TRS. Gavalyugov20 minT. Darlan18 minF. Zugic16 min · TRK. Cochran12 min

Forwards

C. TadjoNewN. BadibangaNew

Centers

F. Chukwudebelu6 minS. Gueye4 min · TRA. EnsorNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NEV76.0 #141

SCU82.9 #30

Points per possession

NEV1.12 #96

SCU1.18 #37

Pace (possessions)

NEV67.7 #243

SCU69.7 #135

Shooting

Effective FG%

NEV50.0 #236

SCU54.5 #53

3-point %

NEV35.8 #70

SCU34.9 #125

3-point attempt rate

NEV32.3 #326

SCU45.0 #67

Free throw rate

NEV44.8 #6

SCU25.5 #363

Possessions

Turnover rate

NEV14.8 #56

SCU15.3 #86

Offensive rebound rate

NEV32.2 #119

SCU36.4 #20

Assists per game

NEV14.5 #119

SCU16.6 #33

Defense

Points allowed

NEV71.5 #92

SCU73.5 #141

Points allowed per possession

NEV1.06 #101

SCU1.06 #117

Opponent effective FG%

NEV51.1 #166

SCU52.0 #213

Opponent 3-point %

NEV33.7 #168

SCU33.1 #127

Turnovers forced

NEV17.0 #150

SCU20.1 #20

Defensive rebound rate

NEV73.1 #33

SCU67.9 #262

Steals per game

NEV6.6 #168

SCU8.7 #14

Blocks per game

NEV3.8 #106

SCU3.6 #125

NEV		SCU
Scoring
76.0 #141	Points per game	82.9 #30
1.12 #96	Points per possession	1.18 #37
67.7 #243	Pace (possessions)	69.7 #135
Shooting
50.0 #236	Effective FG%	54.5 #53
35.8 #70	3-point %	34.9 #125
32.3 #326	3-point attempt rate	45.0 #67
44.8 #6	Free throw rate	25.5 #363
Possessions
14.8 #56	Turnover rate	15.3 #86
32.2 #119	Offensive rebound rate	36.4 #20
14.5 #119	Assists per game	16.6 #33
Defense
71.5 #92	Points allowed	73.5 #141
1.06 #101	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #117
51.1 #166	Opponent effective FG%	52.0 #213
33.7 #168	Opponent 3-point %	33.1 #127
17.0 #150	Turnovers forced	20.1 #20
73.1 #33	Defensive rebound rate	67.9 #262
6.6 #168	Steals per game	8.7 #14
3.8 #106	Blocks per game	3.6 #125

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nevada

24-13 in 2025-26 overall · 14-9 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Auburn69–75
Wvs Liberty73–63
Wvs Murray St89–75
Lvs Utah State66–79
Wvs Grand Canyon84–80

A week or more of rest.

Santa Clara

25-9 in 2025-26 overall · 17-4 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Kentucky84–89
Lvs Gonzaga68–79
Wvs Saint Mary's76–71
Wvs Pacific76–68
Wvs Oregon St93–72

A week or more of rest.

Nevada Wolf Pack vs Santa Clara Broncos

What could decide it

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Nevada

Santa Clara

Nevada has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nevada

Santa Clara