Utah Tech Trailblazers at Santa Clara Broncos: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 28, 7:00 PM ETLeavey Center · at Santa Clara

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Utah Tech and Santa Clara
UTU	This season	SCU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SCU 85–69 · win probability SCU 92%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 154.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SCU has more of the edges

UTU 2, SCU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

SCUBig

SCU offense vs UTU defense

Offense 93rd of 366 against a defense 295th, on the model’s ratings

SCUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UTU 17.8%, SCU 15.3%. Forced: UTU 16.8%, SCU 20.1%

SCUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UTU 28.1%, SCU 36.4%. Defensive: UTU 65.5%, SCU 67.9%

Context

Schedule so far

UTU has played the 210th-hardest schedule, SCU the 86th. A record against a soft schedule means less

SCUBig

UTU offense vs SCU defense

Offense 251st of 366 against a defense 137th, on the model’s ratings

UTUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: UTU 30.6, SCU 25.5. Allowed: UTU 33.0, SCU 38.2

UTUSmall

Three-pointers

UTU hits 35.0% and allows 30.7%; SCU hits 34.9% and allows 33.1%. Threes are 38.2% and 45.0% of their shots

SCUSmall

Home court

SCU at home. This season: SCU 0-0 at home, UTU 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UTU 24%, SCU 42%. Transfers in: UTU 3, SCU 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: UTU 53.3 and allows 50.9; SCU 54.5 and allows 52.0

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: UTU plays 69.9 a game (124th fastest), SCU 69.7 (135th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SCU -16.0	—
Total	—	154.5	—
Projected score	—	UTU 69.3 · SCU 85.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SCU -9.4	—
1H total	72.2	—
1H projected score	UTU 31.4 · SCU 40.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTU WLWWL	19-12	61%	9-7	—
SCU WLWLL	18-16	53%	9-5	—

Venue/role: UTU away; SCU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTU OUOOO	17-14	55%	16-15
SCU OUUUO	19-15	56%	25-9

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTU	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
SCU	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Utah Tech

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 3	vs WEB	W82–80WO
Dec 5	vs IDST	No recent meeting
Dec 14	vs DEN	W68–54WU

Santa Clara

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	vs FRES	W81–66LU
Dec 5	@ GCU	No recent meeting
Dec 12	vs MUR	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UTU 0–2 SCUSCU leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · SCU has won the last 2 meetings · UTU 2-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 3, 2025-26	UTU 80 @ SCU 90	SCU -20.5	UTU W
Nov 8, 2023-24	UTU 69 @ SCU 77	SCU -12.5	UTU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Utah Tech

31 games played

Straight up

16-15

52% wins

Against the spread

19-12

61% covers · avg +1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-14

55% overs · avg +4.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1552%

W L L L W L L W L W L W W L L L W L W W W W W W L W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1261%

W W L L L W L W W W L W W L L L W L W W W W W W L W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

17-1455%

U U U U O U U O O O O U O O O U U U O O U O O U U O O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@SDAK	W 81-79	+1.5	W +3.5	164.5	U 160
Nov 7	@ARIZ	L 67-93	+33.5	W +7.5	162.5	U 160
Nov 9	@ASU	L 66-81	+12.5	L −2.5	152.5	U 147
Nov 12	vsMAN	L 75-79	-2.5	L −6.5	158.5	U 154
Nov 14	vsMVSU	W 81-75	-26.5	L −20.5	145.5	O 156
Nov 15	@HAW	L 62-68	+16.5	W +10.5	149.5	U 130
Nov 25	vsPRST	L 63-68	+1.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 131
Nov 29	vsUCR	W 77-69	-5.5	W +2.5	145.5	O 146
Dec 3	@SCU	L 80-90	+20.5	W +10.5	144.5	O 170
Dec 20	@WEB	W 82-80	+5.5	W +7.5	152.5	O 162
Dec 22	@CREI	L 69-92	+19.5	L −3.5	147.5	O 161
Dec 29	vsSUU	W 80-66	-7.5	W +6.5	148.5	U 146
Jan 1	@ACU	W 79-64	+5.5	W +20.5	139.5	O 143
Jan 8	@CBU	L 72-84	+7.5	L −4.5	144.5	O 156
Jan 10	@UVU	L 76-92	+13.5	L −2.5	149.5	O 168
Jan 15	vsUTA	L 52-56	-1.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 108
Jan 17	vsTAR	W 75-71	-3.5	W +0.5	150.5	U 146
Jan 21	@CBU	L 64-73	+8.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 137
Jan 24	vsSUU	W 102-91	-6.5	W +4.5	149.5	O 193
Jan 29	@ACU	W 76-70	+3.5	W +9.5	145.5	O 146
Jan 31	@TAR	W 65-59	+1.5	W +7.5	149.5	U 124
Feb 5	vsUTA	W 87-84	-1.5	W +1.5	139.5	O 171
Feb 12	vsUVU	W 81-77	+9.5	W +13.5	148.5	O 158
Feb 14	vsCBU	W 70-65	+2.5	W +7.5	143.5	U 135
Feb 19	@UTA	L 50-63	+4.5	L −8.5	140.5	U 113
Feb 21	@TAR	W 80-72	+1.5	W +9.5	140.5	O 152
Feb 26	vsACU	W 85-81	-2.5	W +1.5	139.5	O 166
Feb 28	@SUU	L 67-81	-1.5	L −15.5	156.5	U 148
Mar 7	vsUVU	L 101-104	+8.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 205
Mar 12	vsACU	W 80-74	-1.5	W +4.5	142.5	O 154
Mar 13	vsCBU	L 72-86	+8.5	L −5.5	144.5	O 158

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SDAK

W 81-79

+3.5

ARIZ

L 67-93

+7.5

ASU

L 66-81

−2.5

MAN

L 75-79

−6.5

MVSU

W 81-75

−20.5

HAW

L 62-68

+10.5

PRST

L 63-68

−3.5

UCR

W 77-69

+2.5

SCU

L 80-90

+10.5

WEB

W 82-80

+7.5

CREI

L 69-92

−3.5

SUU

W 80-66

+6.5

ACU

W 79-64

+20.5

CBU

L 72-84

−4.5

UVU

L 76-92

−2.5

UTA

L 52-56

−5.5

TAR

W 75-71

+0.5

CBU

L 64-73

−0.5

SUU

W 102-91

+4.5

ACU

W 76-70

+9.5

TAR

W 65-59

+7.5

UTA

W 87-84

+1.5

UVU

W 81-77

+13.5

CBU

W 70-65

+7.5

UTA

L 50-63

−8.5

TAR

W 80-72

+9.5

ACU

W 85-81

+1.5

SUU

L 67-81

−15.5

UVU

L 101-104

+5.5

ACU

W 80-74

+4.5

CBU

L 72-86

−5.5

covered 19didn’t cover 12avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SDAK

W 81-79

−4.5

ARIZ

L 67-93

−2.5

ASU

L 66-81

−5.5

MAN

L 75-79

−4.5

MVSU

W 81-75

+10.5

HAW

L 62-68

−19.5

PRST

L 63-68

−15.5

UCR

W 77-69

+0.5

SCU

L 80-90

+25.5

WEB

W 82-80

+9.5

CREI

L 69-92

+13.5

SUU

W 80-66

−2.5

ACU

W 79-64

+3.5

CBU

L 72-84

+11.5

UVU

L 76-92

+18.5

UTA

L 52-56

−33.5

TAR

W 75-71

−4.5

CBU

L 64-73

−6.5

SUU

W 102-91

+43.5

ACU

W 76-70

+0.5

TAR

W 65-59

−25.5

UTA

W 87-84

+31.5

UVU

W 81-77

+9.5

CBU

W 70-65

−8.5

UTA

L 50-63

−27.5

TAR

W 80-72

+11.5

ACU

W 85-81

+26.5

SUU

L 67-81

−8.5

UVU

L 101-104

+57.5

ACU

W 80-74

+11.5

CBU

L 72-86

+13.5

over 17under 14avg +4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Santa Clara

34 games played

Straight up

25-9

74% wins

Against the spread

18-16

53% covers · avg +2.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-15

56% overs · avg +4 pts vs the total

Straight up

25-974%

W W W W W L W W L L W L W W W W L W W W W W W W W W L W L W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

18-1653%

W W W L W W W L L L L L W L L W W W W W L W W W L L L W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

19-1556%

U U O U U U O O O O U O O O U O O O U U U O O U O O O O U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsMCN	W 79-67	-6.5	W +5.5	151.5	U 146
Nov 10	@XAV	W 87-68	+3.5	W +22.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 15	vsNEV	W 98-83	-6.5	W +8.5	144.5	O 181
Nov 18	vsIDST	W 64-55	-14.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 119
Nov 21	vsUL	W 80-43	-19.5	W +17.5	140.5	U 123
Nov 27	vsSLU	L 70-71	+1.5	W +0.5	158.5	U 141
Nov 28	vsMINN	W 86-75	-5.5	W +5.5	138.5	O 161
Dec 3	vsUTU	W 90-80	-20.5	L −10.5	144.5	O 170
Dec 6	@UNM	L 71-98	+1.5	L −25.5	153.5	O 169
Dec 13	vsASU	L 79-82	-1.5	L −4.5	154.5	O 161
Dec 17	vsUNT	W 63-60	-12.5	L −9.5	139.5	U 123
Dec 20	vsLUC	L 78-80	-15.5	L −17.5	151.5	O 158
Dec 28	@ORST	W 102-64	-7.5	W +30.5	150.5	O 166
Dec 30	@PORT	W 92-85	-13.5	L −6.5	157.5	O 177
Jan 2	vsPEPP	W 82-63	-20.5	L −1.5	150.5	U 145
Jan 4	vsUSD	W 98-70	-17.5	W +10.5	161.5	O 168
Jan 8	@GONZ	L 77-89	+17.5	W +5.5	163.5	O 166
Jan 10	vsLMU	W 103-72	-11.5	W +19.5	153.5	O 175
Jan 14	vsPAC	W 85-69	-12.5	W +3.5	154.5	U 154
Jan 17	vsSMC	W 62-54	-1.5	W +6.5	152.5	U 116
Jan 24	@USD	W 85-73	-13.5	L −1.5	162.5	U 158
Jan 28	vsSF	W 88-73	-9.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 161
Jan 31	@LMU	W 104-73	-8.5	W +22.5	153.5	O 177
Feb 4	@PAC	W 71-56	-6.5	W +8.5	151.5	U 127
Feb 7	@WSU	W 96-92	-8.5	L −4.5	160.5	O 188
Feb 11	vsSEA	W 84-72	-12.5	L −0.5	147.5	O 156
Feb 14	vsGONZ	L 86-94	+4.5	L −3.5	158.5	O 180
Feb 21	@SF	W 94-73	-6.5	W +14.5	158.5	O 167
Feb 25	@SMC	L 67-86	+5.5	L −13.5	153.5	U 153
Feb 28	vsORST	W 93-72	-15.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 165
Mar 8	vsPAC	W 76-68	-9.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 144
Mar 9	vsSMC	W 76-71	+4.5	W +9.5	150.5	U 147
Mar 10	vsGONZ	L 68-79	+8.5	L −2.5	157.5	U 147
Mar 20	vsUK	L 84-89	+3.5	L −1.5	157.5	O 173

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MCN

W 79-67

+5.5

XAV

W 87-68

+22.5

NEV

W 98-83

+8.5

IDST

W 64-55

−5.5

W 80-43

+17.5

SLU

L 70-71

+0.5

MINN

W 86-75

+5.5

UTU

W 90-80

−10.5

UNM

L 71-98

−25.5

ASU

L 79-82

−4.5

UNT

W 63-60

−9.5

LUC

L 78-80

−17.5

ORST

W 102-64

+30.5

PORT

W 92-85

−6.5

PEPP

W 82-63

−1.5

USD

W 98-70

+10.5

GONZ

L 77-89

+5.5

LMU

W 103-72

+19.5

PAC

W 85-69

+3.5

SMC

W 62-54

+6.5

USD

W 85-73

−1.5

W 88-73

+5.5

LMU

W 104-73

+22.5

PAC

W 71-56

+8.5

WSU

W 96-92

−4.5

SEA

W 84-72

−0.5

GONZ

L 86-94

−3.5

W 94-73

+14.5

SMC

L 67-86

−13.5

ORST

W 93-72

+5.5

PAC

W 76-68

−1.5

SMC

W 76-71

+9.5

GONZ

L 68-79

−2.5

L 84-89

−1.5

covered 18didn’t cover 16avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MCN

W 79-67

−5.5

XAV

W 87-68

−0.5

NEV

W 98-83

+36.5

IDST

W 64-55

−22.5

W 80-43

−17.5

SLU

L 70-71

−17.5

MINN

W 86-75

+22.5

UTU

W 90-80

+25.5

UNM

L 71-98

+15.5

ASU

L 79-82

+6.5

UNT

W 63-60

−16.5

LUC

L 78-80

+6.5

ORST

W 102-64

+15.5

PORT

W 92-85

+19.5

PEPP

W 82-63

−5.5

USD

W 98-70

+6.5

GONZ

L 77-89

+2.5

LMU

W 103-72

+21.5

PAC

W 85-69

−0.5

SMC

W 62-54

−36.5

USD

W 85-73

−4.5

W 88-73

+10.5

LMU

W 104-73

+23.5

PAC

W 71-56

−24.5

WSU

W 96-92

+27.5

SEA

W 84-72

+8.5

GONZ

L 86-94

+21.5

W 94-73

+8.5

SMC

L 67-86

−0.5

ORST

W 93-72

+11.5

PAC

W 76-68

−4.5

SMC

W 76-71

−3.5

GONZ

L 68-79

−10.5

L 84-89

+15.5

over 19under 15avg +4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Santa Clara has the better starters

Position by position: Utah Tech 1, Santa Clara 4, even 0

Utah TechBetterSanta Clara

G R. Sunderland TR4.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 4

SCUBig

G J. Ensminger6.4 pts · 5.5 reb · 2.8 ast Score 53

G A. Dupre TR3 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 1

SCUBig

G D. Castillo TR10.3 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 41

G M. Brown TR3 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.2 ast Score 6

SCUBig

G S. Gavalyugov9 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 61

F E. Potter17.1 pts · 7.9 reb · 2 ast Score 94

UTUBig

G T. Darlan5.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 35

F S. Ariyibi2.4 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 11

SCUBig

G F. Zugic TR5.2 pts · 2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 56

Utah TechBetterSanta Clara

UTU offense251st of 366 · -7.6

SCUSmall

SCU defense137th of 366 · -2.8

UTU defense295th of 366 · -7.4

SCUBig

SCU offense93rd of 366 · -0.4

Backcourt-8.4 · 3 players

SCUBig

Backcourt-2.9 · 5 players

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

No call

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

Bench-0.3 · 3 players

Even

Bench-0.2 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestUTU betterSCU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Utah Tech

Guards

R. Sunderland27 min · TRA. Dupre16 min · TRM. Brown14 min · TRB. Harker3 minP. Vandermyde1 minP. RagkosNew

Forwards

E. Potter32 minS. Ariyibi10 minD. Grant2 minJ. ClarkNew

Centers

K. LemkeNew

Santa Clara

Guards

J. Ensminger29 minD. Castillo28 min · TRS. Gavalyugov20 minT. Darlan18 minF. Zugic16 min · TRK. Cochran12 min

Forwards

C. TadjoNewN. BadibangaNew

Centers

F. Chukwudebelu6 minS. Gueye4 min · TRA. EnsorNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UTU74.7 #171

SCU82.9 #30

Points per possession

UTU1.08 #193

SCU1.18 #37

Pace (possessions)

UTU69.9 #124

SCU69.7 #135

Shooting

Effective FG%

UTU53.3 #90

SCU54.5 #53

3-point %

UTU35.0 #113

SCU34.9 #125

3-point attempt rate

UTU38.2 #207

SCU45.0 #67

Free throw rate

UTU30.6 #290

SCU25.5 #363

Possessions

Turnover rate

UTU17.8 #256

SCU15.3 #86

Offensive rebound rate

UTU28.1 #261

SCU36.4 #20

Assists per game

UTU14.4 #121

SCU16.6 #33

Defense

Points allowed

UTU77.0 #243

SCU73.5 #141

Points allowed per possession

UTU1.09 #211

SCU1.06 #117

Opponent effective FG%

UTU50.9 #151

SCU52.0 #213

Opponent 3-point %

UTU30.7 #29

SCU33.1 #127

Turnovers forced

UTU16.8 #166

SCU20.1 #20

Defensive rebound rate

UTU65.5 #326

SCU67.9 #262

Steals per game

UTU6.9 #135

SCU8.7 #14

Blocks per game

UTU3.0 #216

SCU3.6 #125

UTU		SCU
Scoring
74.7 #171	Points per game	82.9 #30
1.08 #193	Points per possession	1.18 #37
69.9 #124	Pace (possessions)	69.7 #135
Shooting
53.3 #90	Effective FG%	54.5 #53
35.0 #113	3-point %	34.9 #125
38.2 #207	3-point attempt rate	45.0 #67
30.6 #290	Free throw rate	25.5 #363
Possessions
17.8 #256	Turnover rate	15.3 #86
28.1 #261	Offensive rebound rate	36.4 #20
14.4 #121	Assists per game	16.6 #33
Defense
77.0 #243	Points allowed	73.5 #141
1.09 #211	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #117
50.9 #151	Opponent effective FG%	52.0 #213
30.7 #29	Opponent 3-point %	33.1 #127
16.8 #166	Turnovers forced	20.1 #20
65.5 #326	Defensive rebound rate	67.9 #262
6.9 #135	Steals per game	8.7 #14
3.0 #216	Blocks per game	3.6 #125

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Utah Tech

16-15 in 2025-26 overall · 12-8 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs CA Baptist72–86
Wvs Abilene Chrstn80–74
Lvs Utah Valley101–104
L@ Southern Utah67–81
Wvs Abilene Chrstn85–81

A week or more of rest.

Santa Clara

25-9 in 2025-26 overall · 17-4 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Kentucky84–89
Lvs Gonzaga68–79
Wvs Saint Mary's76–71
Wvs Pacific76–68
Wvs Oregon St93–72

A week or more of rest.

Utah Tech Trailblazers at Santa Clara Broncos

What could decide it: SCU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Utah Tech

Santa Clara

Santa Clara has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Utah Tech

Santa Clara