South Carolina State Bulldogs at Duquesne Dukes: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 28, 7:30 PM ETUPMC Cooper Fieldhouse · at Duquesne

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: SC State and Duquesne
SCST	This season	DUQ
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DUQ 86–63 · win probability DUQ 98%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 149.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DUQ has more of the edges

SCST 1, DUQ 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

DUQBig

DUQ offense vs SCST defense

Offense 107th of 366 against a defense 351st, on the model’s ratings

DUQBig

SCST offense vs DUQ defense

Offense 341st of 366 against a defense 118th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

SCST has played the 317th-hardest schedule, DUQ the 108th. A record against a soft schedule means less

DUQBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: SCST 46.8 and allows 53.9; DUQ 52.3 and allows 52.5

SCSTSmall

Three-pointers

SCST hits 34.0% and allows 33.5%; DUQ hits 33.1% and allows 36.2%. Threes are 33.3% and 44.4% of their shots

DUQSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SCST 31.4%, DUQ 30.4%. Defensive: SCST 62.4%, DUQ 70.4%

DUQSmall

Home court

DUQ at home. This season: DUQ 0-0 at home, SCST 0-0 away

DUQSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SCST 20.8%, DUQ 17.6%. Forced: SCST 18.8%, DUQ 18.4%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SCST 34%, DUQ 49%. Transfers in: SCST 1, DUQ 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: SCST 41.0, DUQ 38.3. Allowed: SCST 51.9, DUQ 39.9

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: SCST plays 70.3 a game (102nd fastest), DUQ 70.4 (99th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	DUQ -23.4	—
Total	—	149.0	—
Projected score	—	SCST 62.8 · DUQ 86.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	DUQ -13.8	—
1H total	69.7	—
1H projected score	SCST 27.9 · DUQ 41.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SCST LWWWL	13-17	43%	7-12	—
DUQ LLLWW	14-17	45%	5-11	—

Venue/role: SCST away; DUQ home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SCST UUOOU	15-15	50%	8-22
DUQ OUOUU	16-15	52%	16-15

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SCST	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
DUQ	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

SC State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	vs WIN	L79–101LO
Dec 5	vs CHSO	L44–84LU
Dec 11	@ NKU	L47–58LU

Duquesne

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs KC	No recent meeting
Dec 9	vs RMU	No recent meeting
Dec 12	vs CAN	W103–59WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SCST 0–1 DUQDUQ leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · SCST 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 14, 2022-23	SCST 71 @ DUQ 96	DUQ -20.5	DUQ W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

SC State

30 games played

Straight up

8-22

27% wins

Against the spread

13-17

43% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2227%

L L L L L L L L L L L L L L W L W L W W L L W L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1743%

L W L L L W W L L L L W W L W L W L W W L L W L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1550%

U U U U U O O O U U O O O O U U O O U U O U O O O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@LOU	L 45-104	+35.5	L −23.5	159.5	U 149
Nov 7	@SAM	L 72-82	+14.5	W +4.5	154.5	U 154
Nov 10	@NCAT	L 62-85	+2.5	L −20.5	159.5	U 147
Nov 14	@COFC	L 61-88	+18.5	L −8.5	156.5	U 149
Nov 19	vsUTC	L 66-78	+11.5	L −0.5	154.5	U 144
Nov 23	@SDAK	L 81-82	+15.5	W +14.5	160.5	O 163
Nov 25	@MIZ	L 66-98	+34.5	W +2.5	160.5	O 164
Nov 29	@WIN	L 79-101	+20.5	L −1.5	157.5	O 180
Dec 5	@BCU	L 59-80	+13.5	L −7.5	148.5	U 139
Dec 8	@CHSO	L 44-84	+12.5	L −27.5	156.5	U 128
Dec 12	@QUC	L 78-102	+18.5	L −5.5	157.5	O 180
Dec 16	vsUPST	L 72-78	+10.5	W +4.5	147.5	O 150
Dec 22	@SC	L 70-95	+31.5	W +6.5	149.5	O 165
Dec 30	@TENN	L 54-105	+44.5	L −6.5	147.5	O 159
Jan 3	vsHOW	W 58-57	+8.5	W +9.5	144.5	U 115
Jan 10	@MORG	L 67-72	+4.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 139
Jan 12	@COPP	W 74-72	+1.5	W +3.5	140.5	O 146
Jan 17	vsNORF	L 82-89	+5.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 171
Jan 26	vsDSU	W 70-64	-1.5	W +4.5	135.5	U 134
Feb 4	vsUMES	W 63-54	+3.5	W +12.5	133.5	U 117
Feb 7	@HOW	L 57-85	+14.5	L −13.5	141.5	O 142
Feb 16	vsCOPP	L 57-59	-4.5	L −6.5	138.5	U 116
Feb 18	vsNCCU	W 85-72	+2.5	W +15.5	136.5	O 157
Feb 21	@NORF	L 71-90	+10.5	L −8.5	140.5	O 161
Feb 25	vsMORG	L 83-90	+1.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 173
Feb 28	@UMES	L 57-69	+5.5	L −6.5	132.5	U 126
Mar 2	@DSU	W 61-59	+3.5	W +5.5	134.5	U 120
Mar 5	@NCCU	W 80-64	+7.5	W +23.5	140.5	O 144
Mar 12	vsNORF	W 88-82	+7.5	W +13.5	144.5	O 170
Mar 13	vsHOW	L 61-78	+15.5	L −1.5	145.5	U 139

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LOU

L 45-104

−23.5

SAM

L 72-82

+4.5

NCAT

L 62-85

−20.5

COFC

L 61-88

−8.5

UTC

L 66-78

−0.5

SDAK

L 81-82

+14.5

MIZ

L 66-98

+2.5

WIN

L 79-101

−1.5

BCU

L 59-80

−7.5

CHSO

L 44-84

−27.5

QUC

L 78-102

−5.5

UPST

L 72-78

+4.5

L 70-95

+6.5

TENN

L 54-105

−6.5

HOW

W 58-57

+9.5

MORG

L 67-72

−0.5

COPP

W 74-72

+3.5

NORF

L 82-89

−1.5

DSU

W 70-64

+4.5

UMES

W 63-54

+12.5

HOW

L 57-85

−13.5

COPP

L 57-59

−6.5

NCCU

W 85-72

+15.5

NORF

L 71-90

−8.5

MORG

L 83-90

−5.5

UMES

L 57-69

−6.5

DSU

W 61-59

+5.5

NCCU

W 80-64

+23.5

NORF

W 88-82

+13.5

HOW

L 61-78

−1.5

covered 13didn’t cover 17avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LOU

L 45-104

−10.5

SAM

L 72-82

−0.5

NCAT

L 62-85

−12.5

COFC

L 61-88

−7.5

UTC

L 66-78

−10.5

SDAK

L 81-82

+2.5

MIZ

L 66-98

+3.5

WIN

L 79-101

+22.5

BCU

L 59-80

−9.5

CHSO

L 44-84

−28.5

QUC

L 78-102

+22.5

UPST

L 72-78

+2.5

L 70-95

+15.5

TENN

L 54-105

+11.5

HOW

W 58-57

−29.5

MORG

L 67-72

−8.5

COPP

W 74-72

+5.5

NORF

L 82-89

+31.5

DSU

W 70-64

−1.5

UMES

W 63-54

−16.5

HOW

L 57-85

+0.5

COPP

L 57-59

−22.5

NCCU

W 85-72

+20.5

NORF

L 71-90

+20.5

MORG

L 83-90

+19.5

UMES

L 57-69

−6.5

DSU

W 61-59

−14.5

NCCU

W 80-64

+3.5

NORF

W 88-82

+25.5

HOW

L 61-78

−6.5

over 15under 15avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Duquesne

31 games played

Straight up

16-15

52% wins

Against the spread

14-17

45% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-15

52% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1552%

W W W L W L L W L L W W L L L W L W L W W W W W L L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1745%

W L L W L L L L L W W W L L L W W W L W W W W L L L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1552%

O O O O O O U O U O O O O O U U U U O U U O U U U U O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNIA	W 83-63	-17.5	W +2.5	139.5	O 146
Nov 7	vsSHU	W 92-80	-12.5	L −0.5	157.5	O 172
Nov 11	vsQUC	W 87-81	-12.5	L −6.5	162.5	O 168
Nov 15	@VILL	L 77-87	+10.5	W +0.5	151.5	O 164
Nov 19	vsL-MD	W 92-78	-14.5	L −0.5	150.5	O 170
Nov 22	vsNE	L 86-93	-7.5	L −14.5	147.5	O 179
Dec 2	vsW&M	L 79-83	-5.5	L −9.5	170.5	U 162
Dec 6	vsSTBK	W 84-75	-9.5	L −0.5	150.5	O 159
Dec 10	@BOIS	L 64-86	+14.5	L −7.5	150.5	U 150
Dec 13	@NEV	L 75-78	+5.5	W +2.5	151.5	O 153
Dec 22	vsCAN	W 103-59	-19.5	W +24.5	143.5	O 162
Dec 30	@DAV	W 89-83	+2.5	W +8.5	150.5	O 172
Jan 3	vsVCU	L 80-93	+5.5	L −7.5	165.5	O 173
Jan 7	@JOES	L 90-97	-1.5	L −8.5	149.5	O 187
Jan 13	vsDAY	L 65-71	+2.5	L −3.5	152.5	U 136
Jan 17	@FOR	W 74-63	-1.5	W +9.5	145.5	U 137
Jan 20	vsSLU	L 77-81	+8.5	W +4.5	165.5	U 158
Jan 24	@LUC	W 71-59	-5.5	W +6.5	152.5	U 130
Jan 28	vsSBU	L 79-87	-3.5	L −11.5	150.5	O 166
Feb 1	vsURI	W 76-61	-2.5	W +12.5	146.5	U 137
Feb 4	@GMU	W 71-65	+8.5	W +14.5	143.5	U 136
Feb 7	vsGW	W 88-86	+1.5	W +3.5	158.5	O 174
Feb 14	@SBU	W 78-73	+1.5	W +6.5	152.5	U 151
Feb 18	vsLAS	W 62-61	-11.5	L −10.5	145.5	U 123
Feb 21	@DAY	L 66-78	+6.5	L −5.5	148.5	U 144
Feb 25	vsDAV	L 56-67	-3.5	L −14.5	142.5	U 123
Feb 28	@SLU	L 76-91	+13.5	L −1.5	160.5	O 167
Mar 4	@URI	L 52-64	+2.5	L −9.5	143.5	U 116
Mar 7	vsRICH	W 79-77	-4.5	L −2.5	147.5	O 156
Mar 12	vsURI	W 67-61	-1.5	W +4.5	138.5	U 128
Mar 13	vsVCU	L 66-71	+6.5	W +1.5	153.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NIA

W 83-63

+2.5

SHU

W 92-80

−0.5

QUC

W 87-81

−6.5

VILL

L 77-87

+0.5

L-MD

W 92-78

−0.5

L 86-93

−14.5

W&M

L 79-83

−9.5

STBK

W 84-75

−0.5

BOIS

L 64-86

−7.5

NEV

L 75-78

+2.5

CAN

W 103-59

+24.5

DAV

W 89-83

+8.5

VCU

L 80-93

−7.5

JOES

L 90-97

−8.5

DAY

L 65-71

−3.5

FOR

W 74-63

+9.5

SLU

L 77-81

+4.5

LUC

W 71-59

+6.5

SBU

L 79-87

−11.5

URI

W 76-61

+12.5

GMU

W 71-65

+14.5

W 88-86

+3.5

SBU

W 78-73

+6.5

LAS

W 62-61

−10.5

DAY

L 66-78

−5.5

DAV

L 56-67

−14.5

SLU

L 76-91

−1.5

URI

L 52-64

−9.5

RICH

W 79-77

−2.5

URI

W 67-61

+4.5

VCU

L 66-71

+1.5

covered 14didn’t cover 17avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NIA

W 83-63

+6.5

SHU

W 92-80

+14.5

QUC

W 87-81

+5.5

VILL

L 77-87

+12.5

L-MD

W 92-78

+19.5

L 86-93

+31.5

W&M

L 79-83

−8.5

STBK

W 84-75

+8.5

BOIS

L 64-86

−0.5

NEV

L 75-78

+1.5

CAN

W 103-59

+18.5

DAV

W 89-83

+21.5

VCU

L 80-93

+7.5

JOES

L 90-97

+37.5

DAY

L 65-71

−16.5

FOR

W 74-63

−8.5

SLU

L 77-81

−7.5

LUC

W 71-59

−22.5

SBU

L 79-87

+15.5

URI

W 76-61

−9.5

GMU

W 71-65

−7.5

W 88-86

+15.5

SBU

W 78-73

−1.5

LAS

W 62-61

−22.5

DAY

L 66-78

−4.5

DAV

L 56-67

−19.5

SLU

L 76-91

+6.5

URI

L 52-64

−27.5

RICH

W 79-77

+8.5

URI

W 67-61

−10.5

VCU

L 66-71

−16.5

over 16under 15avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Duquesne has the better starters

Position by position: SC State 1, Duquesne 3, even 1

SC StateBetterDuquesne

G D. Jackson TR6.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.8 ast Score 24

DUQBig

G T. Guinyard16.9 pts · 3.2 reb · 4.7 ast Score 93

G N. Treadwell9.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 25

DUQBig

G J. Smith TR15.9 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.1 ast Score 63

F D. Hodge2.5 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.2 ast Score 1

Even

G B. Hall3.4 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 6

F C. Parker6.6 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 53

SCSTSmall

G J. DiMichele3.5 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 31

F T. Tindal2.7 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.2 ast Score 12

DUQBig

F Y. Berman12.3 pts · 3.9 reb · 3.6 ast Score 49

SC StateBetterDuquesne

SCST offense341st of 366 · -11.6

DUQBig

DUQ defense118th of 366 · -1.8

SCST defense351st of 366 · -9.8

DUQBig

DUQ offense107th of 366 · -1.6

Backcourt-3.7 · 2 players

DUQBig

Backcourt+0.1 · 4 players

Frontcourt-4.2 · 3 players

DUQBig

Frontcourt-0.4 · 1 player

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-0.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSCST betterDUQ betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

SC State

Guards

D. Jackson23 min · TRN. Treadwell23 minB. JacksonNewM. TaylorNewB. HarrisNewC. BarnesNew

Forwards

D. Hodge18 minC. Parker18 minT. Tindal10 minJ. PrettyNewB. AdamsNewA. NGomabieNew

Duquesne

Guards

T. Guinyard34 minJ. Smith27 min · TRB. Hall19 minJ. DiMichele14 minI. Pasha8 min · TRE. Anish2 min

Forwards

Y. Berman29 minK. Konan8 min · TRS. Olowoniyi5 min · TRF. JellumNewZ. OwinjeNewC. GalbutNew

Centers

E. Demir9 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SCST67.4 #325

DUQ76.9 #118

Points per possession

SCST0.96 #353

DUQ1.09 #164

Pace (possessions)

SCST70.3 #102

DUQ70.4 #99

Shooting

Effective FG%

SCST46.8 #341

DUQ52.3 #131

3-point %

SCST34.0 #173

DUQ33.1 #223

3-point attempt rate

SCST33.3 #312

DUQ44.4 #81

Free throw rate

SCST41.0 #47

DUQ38.3 #94

Possessions

Turnover rate

SCST20.8 #355

DUQ17.6 #243

Offensive rebound rate

SCST31.4 #146

DUQ30.4 #184

Assists per game

SCST12.1 #281

DUQ14.7 #107

Defense

Points allowed

SCST80.6 #327

DUQ75.9 #214

Points allowed per possession

SCST1.15 #318

DUQ1.08 #171

Opponent effective FG%

SCST53.9 #296

DUQ52.5 #241

Opponent 3-point %

SCST33.5 #155

DUQ36.2 #314

Turnovers forced

SCST18.8 #59

DUQ18.4 #83

Defensive rebound rate

SCST62.4 #362

DUQ70.4 #142

Steals per game

SCST6.9 #137

DUQ7.6 #71

Blocks per game

SCST3.8 #98

DUQ3.0 #214

SCST		DUQ
Scoring
67.4 #325	Points per game	76.9 #118
0.96 #353	Points per possession	1.09 #164
70.3 #102	Pace (possessions)	70.4 #99
Shooting
46.8 #341	Effective FG%	52.3 #131
34.0 #173	3-point %	33.1 #223
33.3 #312	3-point attempt rate	44.4 #81
41.0 #47	Free throw rate	38.3 #94
Possessions
20.8 #355	Turnover rate	17.6 #243
31.4 #146	Offensive rebound rate	30.4 #184
12.1 #281	Assists per game	14.7 #107
Defense
80.6 #327	Points allowed	75.9 #214
1.15 #318	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #171
53.9 #296	Opponent effective FG%	52.5 #241
33.5 #155	Opponent 3-point %	36.2 #314
18.8 #59	Turnovers forced	18.4 #83
62.4 #362	Defensive rebound rate	70.4 #142
6.9 #137	Steals per game	7.6 #71
3.8 #98	Blocks per game	3.0 #214

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

SC State

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 8-8 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Howard61–78
Wvs Norfolk St88–82
W@ NC Central80–64
W@ Delaware St61–59
L@ MD Eastern57–69

A week or more of rest.

Duquesne

16-15 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs VCU66–71
Wvs Rhode Island67–61
Wvs Richmond79–77
L@ Rhode Island52–64
L@ Saint Louis76–91

A week or more of rest.

South Carolina State Bulldogs at Duquesne Dukes

What could decide it: DUQ has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

SC State

Duquesne

Duquesne has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

SC State

Duquesne