Winthrop Eagles at South Carolina State Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 2, 12:00 AM ETSmith-Hammond-Middleton Memorial Center · at SC State

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Winthrop and SC State
WIN	This season	SCST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WIN 82–72 · win probability WIN 81%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 153.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WIN has more of the edges

WIN 5, SCST 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

WINBig

WIN offense vs SCST defense

Offense 135th of 366 against a defense 351st, on the model’s ratings

WINBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WIN 34.1%, SCST 31.4%. Defensive: WIN 72.3%, SCST 62.4%

Context

Schedule so far

WIN has played the 206th-hardest schedule, SCST the 317th. A record against a soft schedule means less

WINSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: WIN 49.7 and allows 51.5; SCST 46.8 and allows 53.9

WINSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WIN 14.7%, SCST 20.8%. Forced: WIN 16.6%, SCST 18.8%

WINSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: WIN 44.0, SCST 41.0. Allowed: WIN 39.0, SCST 51.9

SCSTSmall

Home court

SCST at home. This season: SCST 0-0 at home, WIN 0-0 away

Even

SCST offense vs WIN defense

Offense 341st of 366 against a defense 298th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WIN 13%, SCST 34%. Transfers in: WIN 5, SCST 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: WIN plays 72.0 a game (35th fastest), SCST 70.3 (102nd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Three-pointers

WIN hits 33.2% and allows 32.9%; SCST hits 34.0% and allows 33.5%. Threes are 44.1% and 33.3% of their shots

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	WIN -10.0	—
Total	—	153.0	—
Projected score	—	WIN 81.5 · SCST 71.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WIN -6.1	—
1H total	71.5	—
1H projected score	WIN 38.8 · SCST 32.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WIN LLLLL	12-19	39%	7-9	—
SCST LWWWL	13-17	43%	5-4	—

Venue/role: WIN away; SCST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
WIN OUOUO	15-16	48%	20-11
SCST UUOOU	15-15	50%	8-22

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WIN	7-3 70%	1-9 10%	5-5 50%
SCST	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Winthrop

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	@ CCU	L84–88LO
Dec 12	@ USU	No recent meeting
Dec 14	@ WYO	No recent meeting

SC State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs CHSO	L44–84LU
Dec 11	@ NKU	L47–58LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

WIN 2–0 SCSTWIN leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · WIN has won the last 2 meetings · WIN 2-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 29, 2025-26	SCST 79 @ WIN 101	WIN -20.5	WIN W
Dec 6, 2022-23	SCST 67 @ WIN 81	WIN -11.5	WIN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Winthrop

31 games played

Straight up

20-11

65% wins

Against the spread

12-19

39% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-16

48% overs · avg +0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-1165%

W L L W L W L W W L L L L W W W W W W W W W W W W L L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

12-1939%

W W L W W W W W L L L L L L L W W L L W W L L L L W L L L L L

5 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1648%

U O U O U U U O O O O U U O U U O U U O O U U O U O O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsQUC	W 81-74	-3.5	W +3.5	163.5	U 155
Nov 7	@GMU	L 90-96	+9.5	W +3.5	146.5	O 186
Nov 11	@CCU	L 66-72	-2.5	L −8.5	165.5	U 138
Nov 15	vsMER	W 105-69	-2.5	W +33.5	162.5	O 174
Nov 18	@ARK	L 83-84	+23.5	W +22.5	168.5	U 167
Nov 23	@JKST	W 80-62	-10.5	W +7.5	163.5	U 142
Nov 25	@NEB	L 73-80	+14.5	W +7.5	166.5	U 153
Nov 29	vsSCST	W 101-79	-20.5	W +1.5	157.5	O 180
Dec 2	@LIU	W 94-92	-5.5	L −3.5	153.5	O 186
Dec 6	vsCCU	L 84-88	-16.5	L −20.5	153.5	O 172
Dec 18	@UND	L 88-90	-12.5	L −14.5	157.5	O 178
Dec 28	@TTU	L 57-87	+17.5	L −12.5	163.5	U 144
Dec 31	@LONG	L 70-82	-7.5	L −19.5	161.5	U 152
Jan 3	vsGWEB	W 88-77	-23.5	L −12.5	164.5	O 165
Jan 7	vsCHSO	W 81-77	-8.5	L −4.5	166.5	U 158
Jan 10	@UPST	W 71-50	-5.5	W +15.5	157.5	U 121
Jan 14	vsHPU	W 92-75	+2.5	W +19.5	162.5	O 167
Jan 17	@UNCA	W 69-67	-5.5	L −3.5	152.5	U 136
Jan 21	vsRAD	W 76-75	-9.5	L −8.5	165.5	U 151
Jan 24	@PRES	W 82-72	-5.5	W +4.5	146.5	O 154
Jan 31	vsUNCA	W 84-71	-9.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 155
Feb 4	@RAD	W 80-78	-4.5	L −2.5	161.5	U 158
Feb 7	vsLONG	W 79-74	-10.5	L −5.5	153.5	U 153
Feb 12	@GWEB	W 103-85	-20.5	L −2.5	156.5	O 188
Feb 19	vsUPST	W 68-64	-13.5	L −9.5	158.5	U 132
Feb 21	@HPU	L 87-89	+9.5	W +7.5	166.5	O 176
Feb 26	@CHSO	L 84-86	-8.5	L −10.5	164.5	O 170
Feb 28	vsPRES	W 74-70	-7.5	L −3.5	150.5	U 144
Mar 6	vsCHSO	W 86-81	-6.5	L −1.5	164.5	O 167
Mar 7	vsPRES	W 73-71	-7.5	L −5.5	145.5	U 144
Mar 8	vsHPU	L 76-91	+6.5	L −8.5	157.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

QUC

W 81-74

+3.5

GMU

L 90-96

+3.5

CCU

L 66-72

−8.5

MER

W 105-69

+33.5

ARK

L 83-84

+22.5

JKST

W 80-62

+7.5

NEB

L 73-80

+7.5

SCST

W 101-79

+1.5

LIU

W 94-92

−3.5

CCU

L 84-88

−20.5

UND

L 88-90

−14.5

TTU

L 57-87

−12.5

LONG

L 70-82

−19.5

GWEB

W 88-77

−12.5

CHSO

W 81-77

−4.5

UPST

W 71-50

+15.5

HPU

W 92-75

+19.5

UNCA

W 69-67

−3.5

RAD

W 76-75

−8.5

PRES

W 82-72

+4.5

UNCA

W 84-71

+3.5

RAD

W 80-78

−2.5

LONG

W 79-74

−5.5

GWEB

W 103-85

−2.5

UPST

W 68-64

−9.5

HPU

L 87-89

+7.5

CHSO

L 84-86

−10.5

PRES

W 74-70

−3.5

CHSO

W 86-81

−1.5

PRES

W 73-71

−5.5

HPU

L 76-91

−8.5

covered 12didn’t cover 19avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

QUC

W 81-74

−8.5

GMU

L 90-96

+39.5

CCU

L 66-72

−27.5

MER

W 105-69

+11.5

ARK

L 83-84

−1.5

JKST

W 80-62

−21.5

NEB

L 73-80

−13.5

SCST

W 101-79

+22.5

LIU

W 94-92

+32.5

CCU

L 84-88

+18.5

UND

L 88-90

+20.5

TTU

L 57-87

−19.5

LONG

L 70-82

−9.5

GWEB

W 88-77

+0.5

CHSO

W 81-77

−8.5

UPST

W 71-50

−36.5

HPU

W 92-75

+4.5

UNCA

W 69-67

−16.5

RAD

W 76-75

−14.5

PRES

W 82-72

+7.5

UNCA

W 84-71

+7.5

RAD

W 80-78

−3.5

LONG

W 79-74

−0.5

GWEB

W 103-85

+31.5

UPST

W 68-64

−26.5

HPU

L 87-89

+9.5

CHSO

L 84-86

+5.5

PRES

W 74-70

−6.5

CHSO

W 86-81

+2.5

PRES

W 73-71

−1.5

HPU

L 76-91

+9.5

over 15under 16avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

SC State

30 games played

Straight up

8-22

27% wins

Against the spread

13-17

43% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2227%

L L L L L L L L L L L L L L W L W L W W L L W L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1743%

L W L L L W W L L L L W W L W L W L W W L L W L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1550%

U U U U U O O O U U O O O O U U O O U U O U O O O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@LOU	L 45-104	+35.5	L −23.5	159.5	U 149
Nov 7	@SAM	L 72-82	+14.5	W +4.5	154.5	U 154
Nov 10	@NCAT	L 62-85	+2.5	L −20.5	159.5	U 147
Nov 14	@COFC	L 61-88	+18.5	L −8.5	156.5	U 149
Nov 19	vsUTC	L 66-78	+11.5	L −0.5	154.5	U 144
Nov 23	@SDAK	L 81-82	+15.5	W +14.5	160.5	O 163
Nov 25	@MIZ	L 66-98	+34.5	W +2.5	160.5	O 164
Nov 29	@WIN	L 79-101	+20.5	L −1.5	157.5	O 180
Dec 5	@BCU	L 59-80	+13.5	L −7.5	148.5	U 139
Dec 8	@CHSO	L 44-84	+12.5	L −27.5	156.5	U 128
Dec 12	@QUC	L 78-102	+18.5	L −5.5	157.5	O 180
Dec 16	vsUPST	L 72-78	+10.5	W +4.5	147.5	O 150
Dec 22	@SC	L 70-95	+31.5	W +6.5	149.5	O 165
Dec 30	@TENN	L 54-105	+44.5	L −6.5	147.5	O 159
Jan 3	vsHOW	W 58-57	+8.5	W +9.5	144.5	U 115
Jan 10	@MORG	L 67-72	+4.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 139
Jan 12	@COPP	W 74-72	+1.5	W +3.5	140.5	O 146
Jan 17	vsNORF	L 82-89	+5.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 171
Jan 26	vsDSU	W 70-64	-1.5	W +4.5	135.5	U 134
Feb 4	vsUMES	W 63-54	+3.5	W +12.5	133.5	U 117
Feb 7	@HOW	L 57-85	+14.5	L −13.5	141.5	O 142
Feb 16	vsCOPP	L 57-59	-4.5	L −6.5	138.5	U 116
Feb 18	vsNCCU	W 85-72	+2.5	W +15.5	136.5	O 157
Feb 21	@NORF	L 71-90	+10.5	L −8.5	140.5	O 161
Feb 25	vsMORG	L 83-90	+1.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 173
Feb 28	@UMES	L 57-69	+5.5	L −6.5	132.5	U 126
Mar 2	@DSU	W 61-59	+3.5	W +5.5	134.5	U 120
Mar 5	@NCCU	W 80-64	+7.5	W +23.5	140.5	O 144
Mar 12	vsNORF	W 88-82	+7.5	W +13.5	144.5	O 170
Mar 13	vsHOW	L 61-78	+15.5	L −1.5	145.5	U 139

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LOU

L 45-104

−23.5

SAM

L 72-82

+4.5

NCAT

L 62-85

−20.5

COFC

L 61-88

−8.5

UTC

L 66-78

−0.5

SDAK

L 81-82

+14.5

MIZ

L 66-98

+2.5

WIN

L 79-101

−1.5

BCU

L 59-80

−7.5

CHSO

L 44-84

−27.5

QUC

L 78-102

−5.5

UPST

L 72-78

+4.5

L 70-95

+6.5

TENN

L 54-105

−6.5

HOW

W 58-57

+9.5

MORG

L 67-72

−0.5

COPP

W 74-72

+3.5

NORF

L 82-89

−1.5

DSU

W 70-64

+4.5

UMES

W 63-54

+12.5

HOW

L 57-85

−13.5

COPP

L 57-59

−6.5

NCCU

W 85-72

+15.5

NORF

L 71-90

−8.5

MORG

L 83-90

−5.5

UMES

L 57-69

−6.5

DSU

W 61-59

+5.5

NCCU

W 80-64

+23.5

NORF

W 88-82

+13.5

HOW

L 61-78

−1.5

covered 13didn’t cover 17avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LOU

L 45-104

−10.5

SAM

L 72-82

−0.5

NCAT

L 62-85

−12.5

COFC

L 61-88

−7.5

UTC

L 66-78

−10.5

SDAK

L 81-82

+2.5

MIZ

L 66-98

+3.5

WIN

L 79-101

+22.5

BCU

L 59-80

−9.5

CHSO

L 44-84

−28.5

QUC

L 78-102

+22.5

UPST

L 72-78

+2.5

L 70-95

+15.5

TENN

L 54-105

+11.5

HOW

W 58-57

−29.5

MORG

L 67-72

−8.5

COPP

W 74-72

+5.5

NORF

L 82-89

+31.5

DSU

W 70-64

−1.5

UMES

W 63-54

−16.5

HOW

L 57-85

+0.5

COPP

L 57-59

−22.5

NCCU

W 85-72

+20.5

NORF

L 71-90

+20.5

MORG

L 83-90

+19.5

UMES

L 57-69

−6.5

DSU

W 61-59

−14.5

NCCU

W 80-64

+3.5

NORF

W 88-82

+25.5

HOW

L 61-78

−6.5

over 15under 15avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Winthrop has the better starters

Position by position: Winthrop 2, SC State 1, even 2

WinthropBetterSC State

G M. Davis TR9.5 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.9 ast Score 12

Even

G D. Jackson TR6.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.8 ast Score 24

G S. Sims TR9.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 30

Even

G N. Treadwell9.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 25

G A. Smith TR7.6 pts · 2 reb · 2.1 ast Score 60

WINBig

F D. Hodge2.5 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.2 ast Score 1

G S. Hendawy5.2 pts · 4 reb · 1 ast Score 30

SCSTSmall

F C. Parker6.6 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 53

F G. Natsvlishvili TR7.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 1 ast Score 43

WINSmall

F T. Tindal2.7 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.2 ast Score 12

WinthropBetterSC State

WIN offense135th of 366 · -3.9

WINBig

SCST defense351st of 366 · -9.8

WIN defense298th of 366 · -7.6

Even

SCST offense341st of 366 · -11.6

Backcourt-5.8 · 4 players

SCSTSmall

Backcourt-3.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt-0.5 · 1 player

WINBig

Frontcourt-4.2 · 3 players

Bench-1.7 · 4 players

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestWIN betterSCST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Winthrop

Guards

M. Davis26 min · TRS. Sims25 min · TRA. Smith18 min · TRS. Hendawy16 minK. Fisher11 min · TRH. Harrison2 min

Forwards

G. Natsvlishvili20 min · TRT. Hamilton7 minT. HarrisNewJ. CwikNew

SC State

Guards

D. Jackson23 min · TRN. Treadwell23 minB. JacksonNewM. TaylorNewB. HarrisNewC. BarnesNew

Forwards

D. Hodge18 minC. Parker18 minT. Tindal10 minJ. PrettyNewB. AdamsNewA. NGomabieNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WIN81.5 #40

SCST67.4 #325

Points per possession

WIN1.13 #79

SCST0.96 #353

Pace (possessions)

WIN72.0 #35

SCST70.3 #102

Shooting

Effective FG%

WIN49.7 #250

SCST46.8 #341

3-point %

WIN33.2 #217

SCST34.0 #173

3-point attempt rate

WIN44.1 #88

SCST33.3 #312

Free throw rate

WIN44.0 #10

SCST41.0 #47

Possessions

Turnover rate

WIN14.7 #52

SCST20.8 #355

Offensive rebound rate

WIN34.1 #63

SCST31.4 #146

Assists per game

WIN13.6 #177

SCST12.1 #281

Defense

Points allowed

WIN77.7 #261

SCST80.6 #327

Points allowed per possession

WIN1.08 #154

SCST1.15 #318

Opponent effective FG%

WIN51.5 #182

SCST53.9 #296

Opponent 3-point %

WIN32.9 #113

SCST33.5 #155

Turnovers forced

WIN16.6 #174

SCST18.8 #59

Defensive rebound rate

WIN72.3 #55

SCST62.4 #362

Steals per game

WIN6.6 #161

SCST6.9 #137

Blocks per game

WIN2.7 #281

SCST3.8 #98

WIN		SCST
Scoring
81.5 #40	Points per game	67.4 #325
1.13 #79	Points per possession	0.96 #353
72.0 #35	Pace (possessions)	70.3 #102
Shooting
49.7 #250	Effective FG%	46.8 #341
33.2 #217	3-point %	34.0 #173
44.1 #88	3-point attempt rate	33.3 #312
44.0 #10	Free throw rate	41.0 #47
Possessions
14.7 #52	Turnover rate	20.8 #355
34.1 #63	Offensive rebound rate	31.4 #146
13.6 #177	Assists per game	12.1 #281
Defense
77.7 #261	Points allowed	80.6 #327
1.08 #154	Points allowed per possession	1.15 #318
51.5 #182	Opponent effective FG%	53.9 #296
32.9 #113	Opponent 3-point %	33.5 #155
16.6 #174	Turnovers forced	18.8 #59
72.3 #55	Defensive rebound rate	62.4 #362
6.6 #161	Steals per game	6.9 #137
2.7 #281	Blocks per game	3.8 #98

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Winthrop

20-11 in 2025-26 overall · 15-4 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs High Point76–91
Wvs Presbyterian73–71
Wvs Charleston So86–81
Wvs Presbyterian74–70
L@ Charleston So84–86

A week or more of rest.

SC State

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 8-8 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Howard61–78
Wvs Norfolk St88–82
W@ NC Central80–64
W@ Delaware St61–59
L@ MD Eastern57–69

A week or more of rest.

Winthrop Eagles at South Carolina State Bulldogs

What could decide it: WIN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Winthrop

SC State

Winthrop has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Winthrop

SC State