Texas Southern Tigers at San Diego State Aztecs: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 18, 10:00 PM ETViejas Arena · at San Diego St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Texas Southern and San Diego St
TXSO	This season	SDSU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SDSU 87–62 · win probability SDSU 99%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 149.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SDSU has more of the edges

TXSO 0, SDSU 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

TXSO has played the 329th-hardest schedule, SDSU the 80th. A record against a soft schedule means less

SDSUBig

TXSO offense vs SDSU defense

Offense 311th of 366 against a defense 70th, on the model’s ratings

SDSUBig

SDSU offense vs TXSO defense

Offense 86th of 366 against a defense 323rd, on the model’s ratings

SDSUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: TXSO 49.7 and allows 52.5; SDSU 52.7 and allows 48.2

SDSUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TXSO 18.5%, SDSU 17.2%. Forced: TXSO 16.5%, SDSU 20.2%

SDSUSmall

Three-pointers

TXSO hits 33.1% and allows 34.1%; SDSU hits 34.5% and allows 33.6%. Threes are 32.5% and 33.8% of their shots

SDSUSmall

Home court

SDSU at home. This season: SDSU 0-0 at home, TXSO 0-0 away

SDSUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: TXSO 38.2, SDSU 39.0. Allowed: TXSO 44.0, SDSU 38.5

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TXSO 37%, SDSU 20%. Transfers in: TXSO 4, SDSU 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: TXSO plays 71.8 a game (40th fastest), SDSU 70.6 (89th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TXSO 28.8%, SDSU 29.5%. Defensive: TXSO 68.8%, SDSU 68.9%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SDSU -25.1	—
Total	—	149.3	—
Projected score	—	TXSO 62.1 · SDSU 87.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SDSU -14.8	—
1H total	69.8	—
1H projected score	TXSO 27.5 · SDSU 42.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TXSO LLWLL	9-19	32%	3-12	—
SDSU LLWLL	15-17	47%	7-8	—

Venue/role: TXSO away; SDSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
TXSO UOUUO	14-14	50%	10-18
SDSU OOUUU	15-17	47%	21-11

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TXSO	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
SDSU	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Texas Southern

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs NOLA	No recent meeting
Nov 29	vs TAR	L71–82LO
Dec 2	@ XAV	L69–78WU

San Diego St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 24	vs ISU	No recent meeting
Dec 5	vs UNLV	W89–86LO
Dec 11	vs MTST	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Texas Southern

28 games played

Straight up

10-18

36% wins

Against the spread

9-19

32% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-14

50% overs · avg +3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-1836%

L L L L L L L L L L L L W W L W W L W L W W W L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

9-1932%

L L L L W L L L L L L L W L L W W L W L W W W L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1450%

U O O U O U U O O O O U U U O O O O U U O U U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@GONZ	L 43-98	+29.5	L −25.5	157.5	U 141
Nov 6	@TA&M	L 70-104	+29.5	L −4.5	161.5	O 174
Nov 12	vsSAM	L 90-93	+2.5	L −0.5	153.5	O 183
Nov 15	@TXST	L 67-77	+4.5	L −5.5	144.5	U 144
Nov 20	@VAN	L 74-109	+36.5	W +1.5	164.5	O 183
Dec 6	vsSHSU	L 70-82	+7.5	L −4.5	158.5	U 152
Dec 14	@MINN	L 53-89	+21.5	L −14.5	144.5	U 142
Dec 17	@NCSU	L 72-108	+34.5	L −1.5	152.5	O 180
Dec 22	vsACU	L 68-75	+4.5	L −2.5	138.5	O 143
Jan 3	@SOU	L 73-84	+6.5	L −4.5	153.5	O 157
Jan 5	@GRAM	L 67-84	+5.5	L −11.5	146.5	O 151
Jan 10	vsUAPB	L 66-74	-1.5	L −9.5	162.5	U 140
Jan 12	vsMVSU	W 84-51	-12.5	W +20.5	142.5	U 135
Jan 17	@ALCN	W 72-71	-1.5	L −0.5	146.5	U 143
Jan 19	@JKST	L 89-94	+2.5	L −2.5	153.5	O 183
Jan 24	vsAAMU	W 89-74	+1.5	W +16.5	145.5	O 163
Jan 27	vsALST	W 96-64	-2.5	W +29.5	155.5	O 160
Jan 31	@PV	L 78-85	-1.5	L −8.5	157.5	O 163
Feb 7	@FAMU	W 62-57	+1.5	W +6.5	146.5	U 119
Feb 9	@BCU	L 69-79	+7.5	L −2.5	152.5	U 148
Feb 14	vsGRAM	W 82-79	-1.5	W +1.5	139.5	O 161
Feb 16	vsSOU	W 74-73	+4.5	W +5.5	151.5	U 147
Feb 19	@UAPB	W 83-64	+1.5	W +20.5	152.5	U 147
Feb 21	@MVSU	L 71-72	-11.5	L −12.5	143.5	U 143
Feb 26	vsALCN	W 92-87	-5.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 179
Feb 28	vsJKST	W 82-57	-6.5	W +18.5	152.5	U 139
Mar 5	vsPV	L 59-70	-1.5	L −12.5	154.5	U 129
Mar 12	vsAAMU	L 74-85	+1.5	L −9.5	142.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GONZ

L 43-98

−25.5

TA&M

L 70-104

−4.5

SAM

L 90-93

−0.5

TXST

L 67-77

−5.5

VAN

L 74-109

+1.5

SHSU

L 70-82

−4.5

MINN

L 53-89

−14.5

NCSU

L 72-108

−1.5

ACU

L 68-75

−2.5

SOU

L 73-84

−4.5

GRAM

L 67-84

−11.5

UAPB

L 66-74

−9.5

MVSU

W 84-51

+20.5

ALCN

W 72-71

−0.5

JKST

L 89-94

−2.5

AAMU

W 89-74

+16.5

ALST

W 96-64

+29.5

L 78-85

−8.5

FAMU

W 62-57

+6.5

BCU

L 69-79

−2.5

GRAM

W 82-79

+1.5

SOU

W 74-73

+5.5

UAPB

W 83-64

+20.5

MVSU

L 71-72

−12.5

ALCN

W 92-87

−0.5

JKST

W 82-57

+18.5

L 59-70

−12.5

AAMU

L 74-85

−9.5

covered 9didn’t cover 19avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GONZ

L 43-98

−16.5

TA&M

L 70-104

+12.5

SAM

L 90-93

+29.5

TXST

L 67-77

−0.5

VAN

L 74-109

+18.5

SHSU

L 70-82

−6.5

MINN

L 53-89

−2.5

NCSU

L 72-108

+27.5

ACU

L 68-75

+4.5

SOU

L 73-84

+3.5

GRAM

L 67-84

+4.5

UAPB

L 66-74

−22.5

MVSU

W 84-51

−7.5

ALCN

W 72-71

−3.5

JKST

L 89-94

+29.5

AAMU

W 89-74

+17.5

ALST

W 96-64

+4.5

L 78-85

+5.5

FAMU

W 62-57

−27.5

BCU

L 69-79

−4.5

GRAM

W 82-79

+21.5

SOU

W 74-73

−4.5

UAPB

W 83-64

−5.5

MVSU

L 71-72

−0.5

ALCN

W 92-87

+33.5

JKST

W 82-57

−13.5

L 59-70

−25.5

AAMU

L 74-85

+16.5

over 14under 14avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

San Diego St

32 games played

Straight up

21-11

66% wins

Against the spread

15-17

47% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-17

47% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1166%

W W L L W L W W W L W W W W W W L W W L W W W L L W L L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1747%

W L L L W L W W L L W L W W W L L W W W L W W L L W L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1747%

U U O U O O U O O U O O U U U O U O U U U O U U O O O O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsLBSU	W 77-45	-25.5	W +6.5	135.5	U 122
Nov 9	vsIDST	W 73-57	-21.5	L −5.5	135.5	U 130
Nov 18	vsTROY	L 107-108	-14.5	L −15.5	137.5	O 215
Nov 24	vsMICH	L 54-94	+6.5	L −33.5	148.5	U 148
Nov 25	vsORE	W 97-80	+2.5	W +19.5	141.5	O 177
Nov 26	vsBAY	L 81-91	+2.5	L −7.5	148.5	O 172
Dec 3	vsUVU	W 77-66	-8.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 143
Dec 10	vsLAM	W 89-71	-17.5	W +0.5	135.5	O 160
Dec 17	vsAF	W 81-58	-24.5	L −1.5	135.5	O 139
Dec 20	vsARIZ	L 45-68	+13.5	L −9.5	153.5	U 113
Dec 30	@SJSU	W 81-68	-11.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 149
Jan 3	vsBOIS	W 110-107	-4.5	L −1.5	138.5	O 217
Jan 6	@NEV	W 73-68	+1.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 141
Jan 10	vsFRES	W 71-52	-14.5	W +4.5	146.5	U 123
Jan 14	@WYO	W 74-57	-1.5	W +15.5	148.5	U 131
Jan 17	vsUNM	W 83-79	-5.5	L −1.5	148.5	O 162
Jan 21	@GCU	L 69-70	-1.5	L −2.5	145.5	U 139
Jan 24	@UNLV	W 82-71	-3.5	W +7.5	149.5	O 153
Jan 28	vsCSU	W 73-50	-9.5	W +13.5	139.5	U 123
Jan 31	@USU	L 66-71	+6.5	W +1.5	147.5	U 137
Feb 3	vsWYO	W 72-63	-12.5	L −3.5	141.5	U 135
Feb 7	@AF	W 88-54	-22.5	W +11.5	139.5	O 142
Feb 14	vsNEV	W 71-57	-7.5	W +6.5	139.5	U 128
Feb 17	vsGCU	L 63-73	-7.5	L −17.5	139.5	U 136
Feb 21	@CSU	L 74-83	-3.5	L −12.5	139.5	O 157
Feb 25	vsUSU	W 89-72	+1.5	W +18.5	146.5	O 161
Feb 28	@UNM	L 76-81	+1.5	L −3.5	150.5	O 157
Mar 3	@BOIS	L 77-86	+1.5	L −7.5	143.5	O 163
Mar 6	vsUNLV	W 89-86	-9.5	L −6.5	153.5	O 175
Mar 12	vsCSU	W 71-62	-6.5	W +2.5	142.5	U 133
Mar 13	vsUNM	W 64-62	-2.5	L −0.5	150.5	U 126
Mar 14	vsUSU	L 62-73	+2.5	L −8.5	145.5	U 135

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LBSU

W 77-45

+6.5

IDST

W 73-57

−5.5

TROY

L 107-108

−15.5

MICH

L 54-94

−33.5

ORE

W 97-80

+19.5

BAY

L 81-91

−7.5

UVU

W 77-66

+2.5

LAM

W 89-71

+0.5

W 81-58

−1.5

ARIZ

L 45-68

−9.5

SJSU

W 81-68

+1.5

BOIS

W 110-107

−1.5

NEV

W 73-68

+6.5

FRES

W 71-52

+4.5

WYO

W 74-57

+15.5

UNM

W 83-79

−1.5

GCU

L 69-70

−2.5

UNLV

W 82-71

+7.5

CSU

W 73-50

+13.5

USU

L 66-71

+1.5

WYO

W 72-63

−3.5

W 88-54

+11.5

NEV

W 71-57

+6.5

GCU

L 63-73

−17.5

CSU

L 74-83

−12.5

USU

W 89-72

+18.5

UNM

L 76-81

−3.5

BOIS

L 77-86

−7.5

UNLV

W 89-86

−6.5

CSU

W 71-62

+2.5

UNM

W 64-62

−0.5

USU

L 62-73

−8.5

covered 15didn’t cover 17avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LBSU

W 77-45

−13.5

IDST

W 73-57

−5.5

TROY

L 107-108

+77.5

MICH

L 54-94

−0.5

ORE

W 97-80

+35.5

BAY

L 81-91

+23.5

UVU

W 77-66

−1.5

LAM

W 89-71

+24.5

W 81-58

+3.5

ARIZ

L 45-68

−40.5

SJSU

W 81-68

+7.5

BOIS

W 110-107

+78.5

NEV

W 73-68

−0.5

FRES

W 71-52

−23.5

WYO

W 74-57

−17.5

UNM

W 83-79

+13.5

GCU

L 69-70

−6.5

UNLV

W 82-71

+3.5

CSU

W 73-50

−16.5

USU

L 66-71

−10.5

WYO

W 72-63

−6.5

W 88-54

+2.5

NEV

W 71-57

−11.5

GCU

L 63-73

−3.5

CSU

L 74-83

+17.5

USU

W 89-72

+14.5

UNM

L 76-81

+6.5

BOIS

L 77-86

+19.5

UNLV

W 89-86

+21.5

CSU

W 71-62

−9.5

UNM

W 64-62

−24.5

USU

L 62-73

−10.5

over 15under 17avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

San Diego St has the better starters

Position by position: Texas Southern 0, San Diego St 2, even 3

Texas SouthernBetterSan Diego St

G K. Bilal TR5.6 pts · 2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 23

SDSUBig

G C. Gladden TR14.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 4.5 ast Score 67

G C. Patterson6.4 pts · 2 reb · 1 ast Not ranked

No call

G N. Anderson TR16 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 95

G B. Vungo TR3.4 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked

No call

G I. Sy TR10 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 57

F A. Andrews2.9 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 7

SDSUBig

G E. Harrington7.9 pts · 1.5 reb · 2.2 ast Score 63

C J. Gorecki2.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 5

No call

F B. Cherry TR15.3 pts · 6.8 reb · 1 ast Not ranked

Texas SouthernBetterSan Diego St

TXSO offense311th of 366 · -9.7

SDSUBig

SDSU defense70th of 366 · +0.8

TXSO defense323rd of 366 · -8.4

SDSUBig

SDSU offense86th of 366 · +0.3

Backcourt-2.1 · 3 players

SDSUBig

Backcourt+3.9 · 4 players

Frontcourt-4.1 · 2 players

SDSUBig

Frontcourt-0.4 · 1 player

Bench-4.2 · 5 players

SDSUBig

Bench+0.9 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestTXSO betterSDSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Texas Southern

Guards

K. Bilal21 min · TRC. Patterson16 minB. Vungo12 min · TRA. Nedal12 minJ. Hamilton7 minJ. Kimbrough4 min · TR

Forwards

A. Andrews13 minJ. Akpovwa9 minX. Wedlow3 min · TRJ. FarmerNew

Centers

J. Gorecki17 min

San Diego St

Guards

C. Gladden34 min · TRN. Anderson30 min · TRI. Sy28 min · TRE. Harrington21 minR. Gonzales2 minL. DavisNew

Forwards

B. Cherry29 min · TRT. Simmons14 minT. Majak3 minS. MashebinuNewL. SkoricNewL. VinciniNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TXSO73.9 #204

SDSU76.8 #120

Points per possession

TXSO1.03 #293

SDSU1.09 #159

Pace (possessions)

TXSO71.8 #40

SDSU70.6 #89

Shooting

Effective FG%

TXSO49.7 #251

SDSU52.7 #116

3-point %

TXSO33.1 #224

SDSU34.5 #144

3-point attempt rate

TXSO32.5 #324

SDSU33.8 #301

Free throw rate

TXSO38.2 #96

SDSU39.0 #81

Possessions

Turnover rate

TXSO18.5 #297

SDSU17.2 #224

Offensive rebound rate

TXSO28.8 #237

SDSU29.5 #222

Assists per game

TXSO11.1 #332

SDSU14.6 #110

Defense

Points allowed

TXSO80.0 #318

SDSU71.3 #84

Points allowed per possession

TXSO1.12 #260

SDSU1.01 #31

Opponent effective FG%

TXSO52.5 #240

SDSU48.2 #41

Opponent 3-point %

TXSO34.1 #190

SDSU33.6 #164

Turnovers forced

TXSO16.5 #188

SDSU20.2 #19

Defensive rebound rate

TXSO68.8 #211

SDSU68.9 #208

Steals per game

TXSO6.6 #167

SDSU7.7 #62

Blocks per game

TXSO3.3 #173

SDSU4.6 #27

TXSO		SDSU
Scoring
73.9 #204	Points per game	76.8 #120
1.03 #293	Points per possession	1.09 #159
71.8 #40	Pace (possessions)	70.6 #89
Shooting
49.7 #251	Effective FG%	52.7 #116
33.1 #224	3-point %	34.5 #144
32.5 #324	3-point attempt rate	33.8 #301
38.2 #96	Free throw rate	39.0 #81
Possessions
18.5 #297	Turnover rate	17.2 #224
28.8 #237	Offensive rebound rate	29.5 #222
11.1 #332	Assists per game	14.6 #110
Defense
80.0 #318	Points allowed	71.3 #84
1.12 #260	Points allowed per possession	1.01 #31
52.5 #240	Opponent effective FG%	48.2 #41
34.1 #190	Opponent 3-point %	33.6 #164
16.5 #188	Turnovers forced	20.2 #19
68.8 #211	Defensive rebound rate	68.9 #208
6.6 #167	Steals per game	7.7 #62
3.3 #173	Blocks per game	4.6 #27

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Texas Southern

10-18 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Alabama A&M74–85
Lvs Prairie View59–70
Wvs Jackson St82–57
Wvs Alcorn St92–87
L@ Miss Valley St71–72

A week or more of rest.

San Diego St

21-11 in 2025-26 overall · 16-7 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Utah State62–73
Wvs New Mexico64–62
Wvs Colorado St71–62
Wvs UNLV89–86
L@ Boise St77–86

A week or more of rest.

Texas Southern Tigers at San Diego State Aztecs

What could decide it: SDSU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Texas Southern

San Diego St

San Diego St has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Texas Southern

San Diego St