1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 18
  3. UCR @ USD
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 18

UC Riverside Highlanders at San Diego Toreros

Jenny Craig Pavilion · at San Diego
#281UCRUC Riverside
@
#146USDSan Diego
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UCRThis seasonUSD
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects USD 81–70 · win probability USD 82%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 150.7
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: USD has more of the edges

UCR 2, USD 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
USDBig
USD offense vs UCR defense
Offense 127th of 366 against a defense 296th, on the model’s ratings
USDBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UCR 19.0%, USD 17.6%. Forced: UCR 15.5%, USD 18.8%
USDBig
Three-pointers
UCR hits 31.6% and allows 33.5%; USD hits 34.6% and allows 32.7%. Threes are 38.3% and 43.7% of their shots
UCRSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UCR 27.8%, USD 28.1%. Defensive: UCR 70.0%, USD 65.5%
USDSmall
UCR offense vs USD defense
Offense 265th of 366 against a defense 189th, on the model’s ratings
UCRSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: UCR 35.0, USD 25.8. Allowed: UCR 40.9, USD 38.8
Context
Schedule so far
UCR has played the 182nd-hardest schedule, USD the 130th. A record against a soft schedule means less
USDSmall
Home court
USD at home. This season: USD 0-0 at home, UCR 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: UCR plays 71.0 a game (74th fastest), USD 69.6 (139th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UCR 21%, USD 7%. Transfers in: UCR 5, USD 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: UCR 48.9 and allows 52.7; USD 51.2 and allows 54.7
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—USD -10.3—
Total—150.7—
Projected score—UCR 70.2 · USD 80.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUSD -6.0—
1H total70.5—
1H projected scoreUCR 32.2 · USD 38.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

San Diego has the better starters

Position by position: UC Riverside 1, San Diego 3, even 1
UC RiversideBetterSan Diego
G D. Perteete6.2 pts · 3.2 reb · 2.4 ast Score 31
USDBig
G M. Worthy TR16.6 pts · 4.7 reb · 3 ast Score 72
G J. Evans TR5.8 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.1 ast Score 25
USDBig
G D. Hill TR14.2 pts · 4.5 reb · 2.3 ast Score 92
G B. Waller4.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 37
Even
G D. Stromer TR6.4 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.1 ast Score 29
G D. Malcolm TR5.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 87
UCRBig
F T. McMorris TR7.5 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 47
F D. Washington TR2.7 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 0
USDBig
F A. Munoz TR12.7 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.9 ast Score 56
UC RiversideBetterSan Diego
UCR offense265th of 366 · -8.1
USDSmall
USD defense189th of 366 · -4.4
UCR defense296th of 366 · -7.4
USDBig
USD offense127th of 366 · -3.5
Backcourt-2.7 · 4 players
USDBig
Backcourt+2.0 · 3 players
Frontcourt-2.0 · 1 player
USDSmall
Frontcourt-0.4 · 2 players
Bench+0.3 · 2 players
Even
Bench+0.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUCR betterUSD betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UC Riverside
Guards
D. Perteete28 minJ. Evans15 min · TRB. Waller14 minD. Malcolm14 min · TRT. Duckett7 min · TRE. ReaganNew
Forwards
D. Washington11 min · TRT. Parrish-TillmanNewA. McKinneyNewJ. MajokNew
Centers
A. Oyeadier2 min · TR
San Diego
Guards
M. Worthy35 min · TRD. Hill27 min · TRD. Stromer23 min · TRC. Versher2 minN. Del Bosque1 minB. RomanNew
Forwards
T. McMorris26 min · TRA. Munoz25 min · TRJ. Roberto Tanchyn19 min · TRS. Konneh13 min · TRA. Aviles11 minJ. HillNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UCRUSD
Scoring
71.6 #258Points per game72.8 #228
1.01 #317Points per possession1.05 #251
71.0 #74Pace (possessions)69.6 #139
Shooting
48.9 #291Effective FG%51.2 #185
31.6 #3013-point %34.6 #141
38.3 #2033-point attempt rate43.7 #96
35.0 #177Free throw rate25.8 #358
Possessions
19.0 #321Turnover rate17.6 #242
27.8 #275Offensive rebound rate28.1 #262
12.3 #262Assists per game15.4 #68
Defense
79.1 #303Points allowed78.8 #290
1.11 #256Points allowed per possession1.13 #286
52.7 #252Opponent effective FG%54.7 #320
33.5 #159Opponent 3-point %32.7 #100
15.5 #250Turnovers forced18.8 #55
70.0 #159Defensive rebound rate65.5 #328
5.1 #325Steals per game7.7 #65
4.1 #67Blocks per game2.6 #294
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UC Riverside

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 5-15 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Hawai'i74–93
  • Wvs CSU Northridge95–84
  • L@ Santa Barbara59–70
  • Lvs UC Davis73–78
  • Wvs Bakersfield93–65

A week or more of rest.

San Diego

10-21 in 2025-26 overall · 6-14 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Seattle U56–58
  • Wvs LMU66–62
  • L@ Portland74–87
  • L@ Oregon St82–92
  • Lvs LMU65–77

A week or more of rest.