Bethune-Cookman Wildcats at Creighton Bluejays: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 18, 9:00 PM ETCHI Health Center Omaha · at Creighton

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bethune and Creighton
BCU	This season	CREI
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CREI 88–65 · win probability CREI 98%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 153.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CREI has more of the edges

BCU 0, CREI 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

BCU has played the 244th-hardest schedule, CREI the 40th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CREIBig

CREI offense vs BCU defense

Offense 33rd of 366 against a defense 218th, on the model’s ratings

CREIBig

BCU offense vs CREI defense

Offense 188th of 366 against a defense 43rd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: BCU plays 71.8 a game (43rd fastest), CREI 68.9 (187th). Faster games mean more points

CREISmall

Home court

CREI at home. This season: CREI 0-0 at home, BCU 0-0 away

CREISmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BCU 25%, CREI 53%. Transfers in: BCU 9, CREI 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Three-pointers

BCU hits 33.0% and allows 32.9%; CREI hits 34.1% and allows 35.1%. Threes are 29.7% and 48.2% of their shots

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BCU 19.2%, CREI 16.4%. Forced: BCU 15.8%, CREI 13.7%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: BCU 40.9, CREI 28.3. Allowed: BCU 38.6, CREI 24.8

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: BCU 51.0 and allows 49.7; CREI 53.0 and allows 51.1

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BCU 30.1%, CREI 26.9%. Defensive: BCU 68.3%, CREI 70.5%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	CREI -22.7	—
Total	—	153.6	—
Projected score	—	BCU 65.4 · CREI 88.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CREI -13.4	—
1H total	71.8	—
1H projected score	BCU 29.2 · CREI 42.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BCU WWWLL	15-16	48%	9-9	—
CREI LWLWL	11-23	32%	4-12	—

Venue/role: BCU away; CREI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
BCU OOOOU	18-13	58%	16-15
CREI UUUUO	16-18	47%	16-18

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BCU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
CREI	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bethune

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 25	@ RICH	No recent meeting
Nov 28	@ SF	No recent meeting
Dec 5	@ MRSH	No recent meeting

Creighton

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 24	vs MICH	No recent meeting
Dec 1	vs ORU	No recent meeting
Dec 5	vs NEB	L50–71LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bethune

31 games played

Straight up

16-15

52% wins

Against the spread

15-16

48% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-13

58% overs · avg +2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1552%

L L L W L L L W L L L L W W L W W W W W W W W L L W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

15-1648%

W L W W L L L W L L W L L W L L W W L W W L W L L W W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

18-1358%

O O O U U U O U U O O O O U U U O U O U O O U U O O O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@AUB	L 90-95	+24.5	W +19.5	153.5	O 185
Nov 6	@MIA	L 61-101	+16.5	L −23.5	154.5	O 162
Nov 15	@DAY	L 82-91	+21.5	W +12.5	148.5	O 173
Nov 19	@OHIO	W 76-73	+6.5	W +9.5	157.5	U 149
Nov 24	vsJAX	L 64-69	-3.5	L −8.5	143.5	U 133
Nov 25	vsSTBK	L 54-61	-4.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 115
Nov 29	@IU	L 56-100	+29.5	L −14.5	148.5	O 156
Dec 5	vsSCST	W 80-59	-13.5	W +7.5	148.5	U 139
Dec 14	@MIZ	L 60-82	+20.5	L −1.5	146.5	U 142
Dec 17	@SLU	L 53-112	+26.5	L −32.5	157.5	O 165
Dec 22	@ARIZ	L 71-107	+39.5	W +3.5	154.5	O 178
Dec 29	@OKST	L 77-103	+20.5	L −5.5	164.5	O 180
Jan 3	vsFAMU	W 87-83	-7.5	L −3.5	145.5	O 170
Jan 10	vsGRAM	W 74-65	-3.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 139
Jan 12	vsSOU	L 73-77	-3.5	L −7.5	151.5	U 150
Jan 17	@MVSU	W 79-63	-16.5	L −0.5	144.5	U 142
Jan 19	@UAPB	W 87-82	-2.5	W +2.5	155.5	O 169
Jan 24	vsJKST	W 85-48	-8.5	W +28.5	156.5	U 133
Jan 26	vsALCN	W 82-73	-13.5	L −4.5	147.5	O 155
Jan 31	@ALST	W 69-54	-1.5	W +13.5	152.5	U 123
Feb 2	@AAMU	W 80-62	-2.5	W +15.5	141.5	O 142
Feb 7	vsPV	W 82-76	-10.5	L −4.5	157.5	O 158
Feb 9	vsTXSO	W 79-69	-7.5	W +2.5	152.5	U 148
Feb 14	@ALCN	L 55-57	-8.5	L −10.5	144.5	U 112
Feb 16	@JKST	L 86-91	-4.5	L −9.5	150.5	O 177
Feb 19	vsALST	W 82-71	-5.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 153
Feb 21	vsAAMU	W 85-76	-6.5	W +2.5	142.5	O 161
Feb 26	@GRAM	W 76-71	+1.5	W +6.5	144.5	O 147
Feb 28	@SOU	W 82-79	+2.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 161
Mar 5	@FAMU	L 77-81	-2.5	L −6.5	145.5	O 158
Mar 11	vsPV	L 67-71	-5.5	L −9.5	147.5	U 138

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AUB

L 90-95

+19.5

MIA

L 61-101

−23.5

DAY

L 82-91

+12.5

OHIO

W 76-73

+9.5

JAX

L 64-69

−8.5

STBK

L 54-61

−11.5

L 56-100

−14.5

SCST

W 80-59

+7.5

MIZ

L 60-82

−1.5

SLU

L 53-112

−32.5

ARIZ

L 71-107

+3.5

OKST

L 77-103

−5.5

FAMU

W 87-83

−3.5

GRAM

W 74-65

+5.5

SOU

L 73-77

−7.5

MVSU

W 79-63

−0.5

UAPB

W 87-82

+2.5

JKST

W 85-48

+28.5

ALCN

W 82-73

−4.5

ALST

W 69-54

+13.5

AAMU

W 80-62

+15.5

W 82-76

−4.5

TXSO

W 79-69

+2.5

ALCN

L 55-57

−10.5

JKST

L 86-91

−9.5

ALST

W 82-71

+5.5

AAMU

W 85-76

+2.5

GRAM

W 76-71

+6.5

SOU

W 82-79

+5.5

FAMU

L 77-81

−6.5

L 67-71

−9.5

covered 15didn’t cover 16avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AUB

L 90-95

+31.5

MIA

L 61-101

+7.5

DAY

L 82-91

+24.5

OHIO

W 76-73

−8.5

JAX

L 64-69

−10.5

STBK

L 54-61

−30.5

L 56-100

+7.5

SCST

W 80-59

−9.5

MIZ

L 60-82

−4.5

SLU

L 53-112

+7.5

ARIZ

L 71-107

+23.5

OKST

L 77-103

+15.5

FAMU

W 87-83

+24.5

GRAM

W 74-65

−5.5

SOU

L 73-77

−1.5

MVSU

W 79-63

−2.5

UAPB

W 87-82

+13.5

JKST

W 85-48

−23.5

ALCN

W 82-73

+7.5

ALST

W 69-54

−29.5

AAMU

W 80-62

+0.5

W 82-76

+0.5

TXSO

W 79-69

−4.5

ALCN

L 55-57

−32.5

JKST

L 86-91

+26.5

ALST

W 82-71

+5.5

AAMU

W 85-76

+18.5

GRAM

W 76-71

+2.5

SOU

W 82-79

+7.5

FAMU

L 77-81

+12.5

L 67-71

−9.5

over 18under 13avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Creighton

34 games played

Straight up

16-18

47% wins

Against the spread

11-23

32% covers · avg −2.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-18

47% overs · avg +0 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1847%

W L W W L L W W L L W W W W L W L W L W L L L W L L W L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

11-2332%

L L W L L L W W L L W W W L W W L L L L L L L L L L W L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1847%

U U U U O U U O U U O U O O U O O O O O U O U U O O O U O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsSDAK	W 92-76	-29.5	L −13.5	169.5	U 168
Nov 11	@GONZ	L 63-90	+12.5	L −14.5	164.5	U 153
Nov 14	vsUMES	W 84-45	-33.5	W +5.5	135.5	U 129
Nov 19	vsUND	W 75-60	-29.5	L −14.5	155.5	U 135
Nov 24	vsBAY	L 74-81	+3.5	L −3.5	154.5	O 155
Nov 25	vsISU	L 60-78	+9.5	L −8.5	152.5	U 138
Nov 27	vsORE	W 76-66	-2.5	W +7.5	150.5	U 142
Dec 2	vsNICH	W 96-76	-18.5	W +1.5	143.5	O 172
Dec 7	@NEB	L 50-71	+5.5	L −15.5	155.5	U 121
Dec 13	vsKSU	L 76-83	-4.5	L −11.5	159.5	U 159
Dec 17	@XAV	W 98-57	+2.5	W +43.5	151.5	O 155
Dec 20	vsMARQ	W 84-63	-6.5	W +14.5	151.5	U 147
Dec 22	vsUTU	W 92-69	-19.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 161
Dec 30	vsBTLR	W 89-85	-5.5	L −1.5	156.5	O 174
Jan 4	@HALL	L 54-56	+3.5	W +1.5	143.5	U 110
Jan 7	@VILL	W 76-72	+4.5	W +8.5	142.5	O 148
Jan 10	vsSJU	L 73-90	+2.5	L −14.5	152.5	O 163
Jan 13	vsGTWN	W 86-83	-8.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 169
Jan 16	@PROV	L 88-93	-2.5	L −7.5	161.5	O 181
Jan 21	vsXAV	W 94-93	-8.5	L −7.5	155.5	O 187
Jan 27	@MARQ	L 62-86	-1.5	L −25.5	154.5	U 148
Jan 31	vsCONN	L 58-85	+6.5	L −20.5	142.5	O 143
Feb 4	@GTWN	L 68-76	+1.5	L −6.5	146.5	U 144
Feb 7	vsHALL	W 69-68	-1.5	L −0.5	140.5	U 137
Feb 11	@DEP	L 71-72	-1.5	L −2.5	141.5	O 143
Feb 14	vsVILL	L 69-80	+1.5	L −9.5	145.5	O 149
Feb 18	@CONN	W 91-84	+15.5	W +22.5	143.5	O 175
Feb 21	@SJU	L 52-81	+12.5	L −16.5	156.5	U 133
Feb 25	vsDEP	L 71-72	-3.5	L −4.5	142.5	O 143
Feb 28	vsPROV	L 76-79	-3.5	L −6.5	166.5	U 155
Mar 4	@BTLR	W 76-59	+2.5	W +19.5	155.5	U 135
Mar 12	vsHALL	L 61-72	+2.5	L −8.5	136.5	U 133
Apr 2	vsRUTG	W 82-69	-4.5	W +8.5	151.5	U 151
Apr 4	vsWVU	L 70-87	+1.5	L −15.5	137.5	O 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SDAK

W 92-76

−13.5

GONZ

L 63-90

−14.5

UMES

W 84-45

+5.5

UND

W 75-60

−14.5

BAY

L 74-81

−3.5

ISU

L 60-78

−8.5

ORE

W 76-66

+7.5

NICH

W 96-76

+1.5

NEB

L 50-71

−15.5

KSU

L 76-83

−11.5

XAV

W 98-57

+43.5

MARQ

W 84-63

+14.5

UTU

W 92-69

+3.5

BTLR

W 89-85

−1.5

HALL

L 54-56

+1.5

VILL

W 76-72

+8.5

SJU

L 73-90

−14.5

GTWN

W 86-83

−5.5

PROV

L 88-93

−7.5

XAV

W 94-93

−7.5

MARQ

L 62-86

−25.5

CONN

L 58-85

−20.5

GTWN

L 68-76

−6.5

HALL

W 69-68

−0.5

DEP

L 71-72

−2.5

VILL

L 69-80

−9.5

CONN

W 91-84

+22.5

SJU

L 52-81

−16.5

DEP

L 71-72

−4.5

PROV

L 76-79

−6.5

BTLR

W 76-59

+19.5

HALL

L 61-72

−8.5

RUTG

W 82-69

+8.5

WVU

L 70-87

−15.5

covered 11didn’t cover 23avg −2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SDAK

W 92-76

−1.5

GONZ

L 63-90

−11.5

UMES

W 84-45

−6.5

UND

W 75-60

−20.5

BAY

L 74-81

+0.5

ISU

L 60-78

−14.5

ORE

W 76-66

−8.5

NICH

W 96-76

+28.5

NEB

L 50-71

−34.5

KSU

L 76-83

−0.5

XAV

W 98-57

+3.5

MARQ

W 84-63

−4.5

UTU

W 92-69

+13.5

BTLR

W 89-85

+17.5

HALL

L 54-56

−33.5

VILL

W 76-72

+5.5

SJU

L 73-90

+10.5

GTWN

W 86-83

+21.5

PROV

L 88-93

+19.5

XAV

W 94-93

+31.5

MARQ

L 62-86

−6.5

CONN

L 58-85

+0.5

GTWN

L 68-76

−2.5

HALL

W 69-68

−3.5

DEP

L 71-72

+1.5

VILL

L 69-80

+3.5

CONN

W 91-84

+31.5

SJU

L 52-81

−23.5

DEP

L 71-72

+0.5

PROV

L 76-79

−11.5

BTLR

W 76-59

−20.5

HALL

L 61-72

−3.5

RUTG

W 82-69

−0.5

WVU

L 70-87

+19.5

over 16under 18avg +0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Creighton has the better starters

Position by position: Bethune 0, Creighton 5, even 0

BethuneBetterCreighton

G K. Branch TR11.7 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 24

CREIBig

G B. Robinson TR17.6 pts · 2.8 reb · 6.7 ast Score 86

G J. Morris TR11.2 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.9 ast Score 49

CREISmall

G W. Enis TR16.4 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 72

G J. Jones TR9.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.4 ast Score 43

CREIBig

F J. Green10.5 pts · 6.3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 92

F Q. Heady10.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 55

CREISmall

F O. Erhunmwunse TR6.9 pts · 8.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 74

F D. Johnson TR10 pts · 5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 52

CREIBig

C F. King TR13.1 pts · 8.4 reb · 0.8 ast Score 92

BethuneBetterCreighton

BCU offense188th of 366 · -5.8

CREIBig

CREI defense43rd of 366 · +2.7

BCU defense218th of 366 · -5.7

CREIBig

CREI offense33rd of 366 · +5.5

Backcourt-4.2 · 3 players

CREIBig

Backcourt+3.2 · 2 players

Frontcourt-0.3 · 2 players

CREIBig

Frontcourt+8.6 · 3 players

Bench-1.6 · 5 players

CREIBig

Bench+5.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBCU betterCREI betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bethune

Guards

K. Branch30 min · TRJ. Morris30 min · TRJ. Jones28 min · TRM. Jordan13 min · TRK. Patton8 min · TRK. MurphyNew

Forwards

Q. Heady26 minD. Johnson26 min · TRD. Perez-Rouzan24 minV. Boskovic21 min · TRI. Ezuma8 min · TRJ. SmithNew

Centers

M. Martinez16 min · TR

Creighton

Guards

B. Robinson36 min · TRW. Enis34 min · TRB. Davis23 min · TRA. Swartz22 minH. Greer14 minK. Edwards7 min · TR

Forwards

J. Green28 minO. Erhunmwunse25 min · TRJ. McAndrew21 minI. Traudt19 minT. Carter-GivensNew

Centers

F. King25 min · TRW. RosaNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BCU74.5 #175

CREI75.2 #159

Points per possession

BCU1.04 #273

CREI1.09 #156

Pace (possessions)

BCU71.8 #43

CREI68.9 #187

Shooting

Effective FG%

BCU51.0 #195

CREI53.0 #103

3-point %

BCU33.0 #230

CREI34.1 #167

3-point attempt rate

BCU29.7 #353

CREI48.2 #23

Free throw rate

BCU40.9 #48

CREI28.3 #340

Possessions

Turnover rate

BCU19.2 #329

CREI16.4 #161

Offensive rebound rate

BCU30.1 #194

CREI26.9 #301

Assists per game

BCU13.3 #195

CREI15.4 #72

Defense

Points allowed

BCU77.5 #251

CREI75.2 #196

Points allowed per possession

BCU1.08 #157

CREI1.09 #197

Opponent effective FG%

BCU49.7 #88

CREI51.1 #165

Opponent 3-point %

BCU32.9 #112

CREI35.1 #256

Turnovers forced

BCU15.8 #229

CREI13.7 #341

Defensive rebound rate

BCU68.3 #242

CREI70.5 #132

Steals per game

BCU6.8 #147

CREI5.7 #278

Blocks per game

BCU4.5 #34

CREI2.8 #255

BCU		CREI
Scoring
74.5 #175	Points per game	75.2 #159
1.04 #273	Points per possession	1.09 #156
71.8 #43	Pace (possessions)	68.9 #187
Shooting
51.0 #195	Effective FG%	53.0 #103
33.0 #230	3-point %	34.1 #167
29.7 #353	3-point attempt rate	48.2 #23
40.9 #48	Free throw rate	28.3 #340
Possessions
19.2 #329	Turnover rate	16.4 #161
30.1 #194	Offensive rebound rate	26.9 #301
13.3 #195	Assists per game	15.4 #72
Defense
77.5 #251	Points allowed	75.2 #196
1.08 #157	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #197
49.7 #88	Opponent effective FG%	51.1 #165
32.9 #112	Opponent 3-point %	35.1 #256
15.8 #229	Turnovers forced	13.7 #341
68.3 #242	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #132
6.8 #147	Steals per game	5.7 #278
4.5 #34	Blocks per game	2.8 #255

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bethune

16-15 in 2025-26 overall · 14-5 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Prairie View67–71
L@ Florida A&M77–81
W@ Southern82–79
W@ Grambling76–71
Wvs Alabama A&M85–76

A week or more of rest.

Creighton

16-18 in 2025-26 overall · 9-12 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs West Virginia70–87
Wvs Rutgers82–69
Lvs Seton Hall61–72
W@ Butler76–59
Lvs Providence76–79

A week or more of rest.

Bethune-Cookman Wildcats at Creighton Bluejays

What could decide it: CREI has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Bethune

Creighton

Creighton has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bethune

Creighton