1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 18
  3. PORT @ COLO
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 18

Portland Pilots at Colorado Buffaloes

CU Events Center · at Colorado
#169PORTPortland
@
#65COLOColorado
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
PORTThis seasonCOLO
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects COLO 85–69 · win probability COLO 92%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 154.2
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: COLO has more of the edges

PORT 0, COLO 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
COLOBig
COLO offense vs PORT defense
Offense 54th of 366 against a defense 202nd, on the model’s ratings
COLOBig
Three-pointers
PORT hits 29.9% and allows 36.1%; COLO hits 35.1% and allows 36.3%. Threes are 35.4% and 35.2% of their shots
COLOSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: PORT 19.6%, COLO 14.7%. Forced: PORT 17.0%, COLO 15.2%
COLOSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: PORT 28.1%, COLO 29.0%. Defensive: PORT 67.5%, COLO 70.4%
COLOSmall
PORT offense vs COLO defense
Offense 156th of 366 against a defense 80th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
PORT has played the 124th-hardest schedule, COLO the 58th. A record against a soft schedule means less
COLOSmall
Home court
COLO at home. This season: COLO 0-0 at home, PORT 0-0 away
COLOSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: PORT 51.2 and allows 52.7; COLO 52.9 and allows 52.6
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: PORT 34.4, COLO 36.6. Allowed: PORT 32.6, COLO 36.6
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: PORT plays 70.2 a game (106th fastest), COLO 71.0 (76th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: PORT 41%, COLO 40%. Transfers in: PORT 4, COLO 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—COLO -15.7—
Total—154.2—
Projected score—PORT 69.3 · COLO 85

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadCOLO -9.2—
1H total72.1—
1H projected scorePORT 31.4 · COLO 40.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Colorado has the better starters

Position by position: Portland 1, Colorado 3, even 1
PortlandBetterColorado
G J. Olvera TR13.7 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.9 ast Score 51
COLOBig
G B. Hargress14.7 pts · 2.2 reb · 4.5 ast Score 93
G K. Isaac TR5 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 10
COLOBig
F J. Neely TR17.7 pts · 11.4 reb · 2.4 ast Score 96
G D. Censori-Hercules3.2 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 22
COLOSmall
F I. Niagu TR4.2 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42
F J. O'Donnell9.5 pts · 4.2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 60
No call
F D. Gomez TR5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked
F T. George11.7 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 93
PORTSmall
C N. Feddersen TR9 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 59
PortlandBetterColorado
PORT offense156th of 366 · -4.7
COLOSmall
COLO defense80th of 366 · +0.3
PORT defense202nd of 366 · -5.0
COLOBig
COLO offense54th of 366 · +3.2
Backcourt-5.2 · 3 players
COLOBig
Backcourt+3.6 · 1 player
Frontcourt+2.9 · 2 players
COLOSmall
Frontcourt+5.3 · 4 players
Bench-0.2 · 3 players
PORTSmall
Bench-2.7 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestPORT betterCOLO betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Portland
Guards
J. Olvera29 min · TRK. Isaac24 min · TRD. Censori-Hercules21 minR. Parker19 minH. Adam15 min · TRR. NanceNew
Forwards
J. O'Donnell23 minT. George20 minV. Perkovic7 min · TRO. SukurNewH. SewellNew
Colorado
Guards
B. Hargress33 minJ. Sanders18 minJ. Holland18 minI. Inman10 minA. JonesNewR. PortelaNew
Forwards
J. Neely33 min · TRI. Niagu21 min · TRD. Gomez20 min · TRN. Randall1 minG. MalualNewC. HillNew
Centers
N. Feddersen21 min · TRE. JacobsenNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
PORTCOLO
Scoring
72.1 #238Points per game80.2 #63
1.02 #299Points per possession1.13 #80
70.2 #106Pace (possessions)71.0 #76
Shooting
51.2 #188Effective FG%52.9 #108
29.9 #3443-point %35.1 #104
35.4 #2633-point attempt rate35.2 #267
34.4 #197Free throw rate36.6 #139
Possessions
19.6 #342Turnover rate14.7 #46
28.1 #266Offensive rebound rate29.0 #235
15.9 #51Assists per game15.4 #67
Defense
78.1 #271Points allowed79.8 #313
1.11 #258Points allowed per possession1.12 #272
52.7 #255Opponent effective FG%52.6 #243
36.1 #308Opponent 3-point %36.3 #319
17.0 #148Turnovers forced15.2 #267
67.5 #281Defensive rebound rate70.4 #144
5.8 #251Steals per game6.3 #196
2.9 #246Blocks per game3.3 #170
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Portland

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs San Francisco65–82
  • Wvs Washington St74–68
  • Wvs Pepperdine77–68
  • Wvs San Diego87–74
  • L@ Gonzaga48–89

A week or more of rest.

Colorado

17-16 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Oklahoma86–90
  • Lvs Oklahoma St83–92
  • Lvs Arizona79–89
  • W@ Utah92–78
  • L@ Houston62–102

A week or more of rest.