Stanford Cardinal vs Colorado Buffaloes: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 24, 11:59 PM ETAcrisure Arena · Neutral site

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Stanford and Colorado
STAN	This season	COLO
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects COLO 78–76 · win probability COLO 56%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 153.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: STAN has more of the edges

STAN 3, COLO 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

STANSmall

Three-pointers

STAN hits 35.2% and allows 33.0%; COLO hits 35.1% and allows 36.3%. Threes are 44.0% and 35.2% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: STAN plays 68.1 a game (225th fastest), COLO 71.0 (76th). Faster games mean more points

STANSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: STAN 32.5%, COLO 29.0%. Defensive: STAN 70.2%, COLO 70.4%

STANSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: STAN 15.5%, COLO 14.7%. Forced: STAN 18.0%, COLO 15.2%

COLOSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: STAN 35.5, COLO 36.6. Allowed: STAN 40.3, COLO 36.6

Even

COLO offense vs STAN defense

Offense 54th of 366 against a defense 79th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: STAN 27%, COLO 40%. Transfers in: STAN 3, COLO 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Schedule so far

STAN has played the 76th-hardest schedule, COLO the 58th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: STAN 51.5 and allows 51.0; COLO 52.9 and allows 52.6

Even

STAN offense vs COLO defense

Offense 88th of 366 against a defense 80th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	COLO -1.8	—
Total	—	153.8	—
Projected score	—	STAN 76 · COLO 77.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	COLO -0.9	—
1H total	71.9	—
1H projected score	STAN 35.5 · COLO 36.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
STAN WWWLL	17-16	52%	3-2	—
COLO LWWLW	17-16	52%	3-2	—

Venue/role: STAN neutral site; COLO neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
STAN OOOUO	15-18	45%	20-13
COLO OOOOO	17-16	52%	17-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
STAN	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
COLO	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Stanford

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	vs PORT	W94–72WO
Dec 2	@ TA&M	No recent meeting
Dec 6	vs PAC	W88–78LO

Colorado

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 1	vs UTEP	No recent meeting
Dec 5	vs CSU	L86–91LO
Dec 12	vs CARK	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22

STAN 1–5 COLOCOLO leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · STAN 2-3-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 20, 2025-26	STAN 77 vs COLO 68	COLO -2.5	STAN W
Mar 3, 2023-24	STAN 71 @ COLO 81	COLO -12.5	STAN W
Feb 5, 2022-23	STAN 62 @ COLO 84	COLO -4.5	COLO W
Dec 29, 2022-23	COLO 73 @ STAN 70	STAN -2.5	COLO W
Feb 19, 2021-22	COLO 70 @ STAN 53	STAN -2.5	COLO W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Stanford

33 games played

Straight up

20-13

61% wins

Against the spread

17-16

52% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-18

45% overs · avg +0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-1361%

W W W W L W W W L W W W W L W W L W L L L L L W W L L W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

17-1652%

L W L W L W W W L L W W L L W W L W L L W L W W W L L L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1845%

O O U O U U U O U O U U O U U U U O U U O O U O U U U O O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsPRST	W 89-79	-11.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 168
Nov 8	vsMONT	W 91-68	-12.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 159
Nov 12	vsMTST	W 77-68	-14.5	L −5.5	148.5	U 145
Nov 18	vsUL	W 93-66	-20.5	W +6.5	139.5	O 159
Nov 21	vsSEA	L 69-77	-10.5	L −18.5	152.5	U 146
Nov 27	vsMINN	W 72-68	-2.5	W +1.5	142.5	U 140
Nov 28	vsSLU	W 78-77	+1.5	W +2.5	160.5	U 155
Dec 1	vsPORT	W 94-72	-19.5	W +2.5	156.5	O 166
Dec 7	vsUNLV	L 74-75	-9.5	L −10.5	164.5	U 149
Dec 13	@SJSU	W 86-82	-8.5	L −4.5	145.5	O 168
Dec 17	vsUTA	W 76-60	-10.5	W +5.5	139.5	U 136
Dec 20	vsCOLO	W 77-68	+2.5	W +11.5	154.5	U 145
Dec 27	vsCSUN	W 88-80	-15.5	L −7.5	160.5	O 168
Dec 30	vsND	L 40-47	-6.5	L −13.5	143.5	U 87
Jan 2	vsLOU	W 80-76	+7.5	W +11.5	157.5	U 156
Jan 7	@VT	W 69-68	+3.5	W +4.5	148.5	U 137
Jan 10	@UVA	L 55-70	+12.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 125
Jan 14	vsUNC	W 95-90	+4.5	W +9.5	147.5	O 185
Jan 17	vsDUKE	L 50-80	+11.5	L −18.5	148.5	U 130
Jan 24	vsCAL	L 66-78	-4.5	L −16.5	146.5	U 144
Jan 28	@MIA	L 70-79	+9.5	W +0.5	147.5	O 149
Jan 31	@FSU	L 80-88	+3.5	L −4.5	152.5	O 168
Feb 4	vsCLEM	L 64-66	+3.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 130
Feb 7	vsGT	W 95-72	-9.5	W +13.5	151.5	O 167
Feb 11	@BC	W 70-64	-3.5	W +2.5	139.5	U 134
Feb 14	@WAKE	L 63-68	+4.5	L −0.5	150.5	U 131
Feb 21	@CAL	L 66-72	+1.5	L −4.5	149.5	U 138
Feb 25	vsPITT	W 75-67	-8.5	L −0.5	138.5	O 142
Feb 28	vsSMU	W 95-75	+1.5	W +21.5	155.5	O 170
Mar 4	@ND	W 86-78	-1.5	W +6.5	147.5	O 164
Mar 7	@NCSU	W 85-84	+9.5	W +10.5	152.5	O 169
Mar 10	vsPITT	L 63-64	-4.5	L −5.5	136.5	U 127
Apr 2	vsWVU	L 77-82	+2.5	L −2.5	135.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PRST

W 89-79

−1.5

MONT

W 91-68

+10.5

MTST

W 77-68

−5.5

W 93-66

+6.5

SEA

L 69-77

−18.5

MINN

W 72-68

+1.5

SLU

W 78-77

+2.5

PORT

W 94-72

+2.5

UNLV

L 74-75

−10.5

SJSU

W 86-82

−4.5

UTA

W 76-60

+5.5

COLO

W 77-68

+11.5

CSUN

W 88-80

−7.5

L 40-47

−13.5

LOU

W 80-76

+11.5

W 69-68

+4.5

UVA

L 55-70

−2.5

UNC

W 95-90

+9.5

DUKE

L 50-80

−18.5

CAL

L 66-78

−16.5

MIA

L 70-79

+0.5

FSU

L 80-88

−4.5

CLEM

L 64-66

+1.5

W 95-72

+13.5

W 70-64

+2.5

WAKE

L 63-68

−0.5

CAL

L 66-72

−4.5

PITT

W 75-67

−0.5

SMU

W 95-75

+21.5

W 86-78

+6.5

NCSU

W 85-84

+10.5

PITT

L 63-64

−5.5

WVU

L 77-82

−2.5

covered 17didn’t cover 16avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PRST

W 89-79

+23.5

MONT

W 91-68

+8.5

MTST

W 77-68

−3.5

W 93-66

+19.5

SEA

L 69-77

−6.5

MINN

W 72-68

−2.5

SLU

W 78-77

−5.5

PORT

W 94-72

+9.5

UNLV

L 74-75

−15.5

SJSU

W 86-82

+22.5

UTA

W 76-60

−3.5

COLO

W 77-68

−9.5

CSUN

W 88-80

+7.5

L 40-47

−56.5

LOU

W 80-76

−1.5

W 69-68

−11.5

UVA

L 55-70

−18.5

UNC

W 95-90

+37.5

DUKE

L 50-80

−18.5

CAL

L 66-78

−2.5

MIA

L 70-79

+1.5

FSU

L 80-88

+15.5

CLEM

L 64-66

−8.5

W 95-72

+15.5

W 70-64

−5.5

WAKE

L 63-68

−19.5

CAL

L 66-72

−11.5

PITT

W 75-67

+3.5

SMU

W 95-75

+14.5

W 86-78

+16.5

NCSU

W 85-84

+16.5

PITT

L 63-64

−9.5

WVU

L 77-82

+23.5

over 15under 18avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Colorado

33 games played

Straight up

17-16

52% wins

Against the spread

17-16

52% covers · avg −0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-16

52% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1652%

W W W W W W W W L W W L L W W L L L L L L W L W L L W W L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

17-1652%

L L W W W W W L L W L L L W W W L L L L L W L W L W W W L W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

17-1652%

O O O O O U U U O U O U O O U U U U U O O U U U U O U U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMTST	W 84-78	-11.5	L −5.5	148.5	O 162
Nov 8	vsEWU	W 102-97	-16.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 199
Nov 14	vsPROV	W 97-88	-1.5	W +7.5	163.5	O 185
Nov 17	vsALST	W 94-66	-22.5	W +5.5	156.5	O 160
Nov 21	vsUCD	W 95-79	-14.5	W +1.5	152.5	O 174
Nov 27	vsSF	W 79-69	+1.5	W +11.5	150.5	U 148
Nov 28	vsWASH	W 81-68	+2.5	W +15.5	151.5	U 149
Dec 1	vsCBU	W 78-70	-13.5	L −5.5	150.5	U 148
Dec 6	@CSU	L 86-91	+1.5	L −3.5	149.5	O 177
Dec 13	vsUTSA	W 88-64	-22.5	W +1.5	154.5	U 152
Dec 17	vsPRST	W 84-73	-16.5	L −5.5	150.5	O 157
Dec 20	vsSTAN	L 68-77	-2.5	L −11.5	154.5	U 145
Dec 28	vsUNCO	L 81-86	-15.5	L −20.5	158.5	O 167
Jan 3	@ASU	W 95-89	+1.5	W +7.5	156.5	O 184
Jan 7	vsUTAH	W 85-73	-9.5	W +2.5	162.5	U 158
Jan 10	vsTTU	L 71-73	+5.5	W +3.5	161.5	U 144
Jan 14	@CIN	L 68-77	+8.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 145
Jan 17	@WVU	L 61-72	+6.5	L −4.5	141.5	U 133
Jan 20	vsKU	L 69-75	+4.5	L −1.5	155.5	U 144
Jan 24	vsUCF	L 86-95	-3.5	L −12.5	159.5	O 181
Jan 29	@ISU	L 67-97	+17.5	L −12.5	152.5	O 164
Feb 1	vsTCU	W 87-61	+1.5	W +27.5	153.5	U 148
Feb 4	@BAY	L 67-86	+7.5	L −11.5	155.5	U 153
Feb 7	vsASU	W 78-70	-3.5	W +4.5	158.5	U 148
Feb 11	@TTU	L 44-78	+13.5	L −20.5	155.5	U 122
Feb 14	@BYU	L 86-90	+15.5	W +11.5	161.5	O 176
Feb 21	vsOKST	W 83-69	-3.5	W +10.5	162.5	U 152
Feb 25	vsKSU	W 79-70	-5.5	W +3.5	163.5	U 149
Feb 28	@HOU	L 62-102	+20.5	L −19.5	139.5	O 164
Mar 3	@UTAH	W 92-78	-1.5	W +12.5	148.5	O 170
Mar 7	vsARIZ	L 79-89	+13.5	W +3.5	156.5	O 168
Mar 10	vsOKST	L 83-92	-1.5	L −10.5	164.5	O 175
Apr 1	vsOU	L 86-90	+9.5	W +5.5	162.5	O 176

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MTST

W 84-78

−5.5

EWU

W 102-97

−11.5

PROV

W 97-88

+7.5

ALST

W 94-66

+5.5

UCD

W 95-79

+1.5

W 79-69

+11.5

WASH

W 81-68

+15.5

CBU

W 78-70

−5.5

CSU

L 86-91

−3.5

UTSA

W 88-64

+1.5

PRST

W 84-73

−5.5

STAN

L 68-77

−11.5

UNCO

L 81-86

−20.5

ASU

W 95-89

+7.5

UTAH

W 85-73

+2.5

TTU

L 71-73

+3.5

CIN

L 68-77

−0.5

WVU

L 61-72

−4.5

L 69-75

−1.5

UCF

L 86-95

−12.5

ISU

L 67-97

−12.5

TCU

W 87-61

+27.5

BAY

L 67-86

−11.5

ASU

W 78-70

+4.5

TTU

L 44-78

−20.5

BYU

L 86-90

+11.5

OKST

W 83-69

+10.5

KSU

W 79-70

+3.5

HOU

L 62-102

−19.5

UTAH

W 92-78

+12.5

ARIZ

L 79-89

+3.5

OKST

L 83-92

−10.5

L 86-90

+5.5

covered 17didn’t cover 16avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MTST

W 84-78

+13.5

EWU

W 102-97

+46.5

PROV

W 97-88

+21.5

ALST

W 94-66

+3.5

UCD

W 95-79

+21.5

W 79-69

−2.5

WASH

W 81-68

−2.5

CBU

W 78-70

−2.5

CSU

L 86-91

+27.5

UTSA

W 88-64

−2.5

PRST

W 84-73

+6.5

STAN

L 68-77

−9.5

UNCO

L 81-86

+8.5

ASU

W 95-89

+27.5

UTAH

W 85-73

−4.5

TTU

L 71-73

−17.5

CIN

L 68-77

−0.5

WVU

L 61-72

−8.5

L 69-75

−11.5

UCF

L 86-95

+21.5

ISU

L 67-97

+11.5

TCU

W 87-61

−5.5

BAY

L 67-86

−2.5

ASU

W 78-70

−10.5

TTU

L 44-78

−33.5

BYU

L 86-90

+14.5

OKST

W 83-69

−10.5

KSU

W 79-70

−14.5

HOU

L 62-102

+24.5

UTAH

W 92-78

+21.5

ARIZ

L 79-89

+11.5

OKST

L 83-92

+10.5

L 86-90

+13.5

over 17under 16avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Stanford 0, Colorado 0, even 5

StanfordBetterColorado

G C. Bliss TR16.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 5.9 ast Score 84

Even

G B. Hargress14.7 pts · 2.2 reb · 4.5 ast Score 93

F N. Townsend TR16.6 pts · 7.3 reb · 4.4 ast Score 93

Even

F J. Neely TR17.7 pts · 11.4 reb · 2.4 ast Score 96

F A. Cammann6.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 56

Even

F I. Niagu TR4.2 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

F D. Young2.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 26

No call

F D. Gomez TR5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked

C A. Maurer TR7.2 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 70

Even

C N. Feddersen TR9 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 59

StanfordBetterColorado

STAN offense88th of 366 · +0.2

Even

COLO defense80th of 366 · +0.3

STAN defense79th of 366 · +0.4

Even

COLO offense54th of 366 · +3.2

Backcourt+2.6 · 1 player

Even

Backcourt+3.6 · 1 player

Frontcourt+4.6 · 4 players

Even

Frontcourt+5.3 · 4 players

Bench-0.1 · 4 players

STANSmall

Bench-2.7 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestSTAN betterCOLO betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Stanford

Guards

C. Bliss40 min · TRE. Kitch1 minA. BatsonNewM. JonesNewJ. PriceNewI. RogersNew

Forwards

N. Townsend34 min · TRA. Cammann22 minD. Young15 minK. Skrinda6 minE. Stinson5 minT. Toure4 min

Centers

A. Maurer18 min · TR

Colorado

Guards

B. Hargress33 minJ. Sanders18 minJ. Holland18 minI. Inman10 minA. JonesNewR. PortelaNew

Forwards

J. Neely33 min · TRI. Niagu21 min · TRD. Gomez20 min · TRN. Randall1 minG. MalualNewC. HillNew

Centers

N. Feddersen21 min · TRE. JacobsenNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

STAN76.0 #142

COLO80.2 #63

Points per possession

STAN1.12 #108

COLO1.13 #80

Pace (possessions)

STAN68.1 #225

COLO71.0 #76

Shooting

Effective FG%

STAN51.5 #173

COLO52.9 #108

3-point %

STAN35.2 #103

COLO35.1 #104

3-point attempt rate

STAN44.0 #89

COLO35.2 #267

Free throw rate

STAN35.5 #165

COLO36.6 #139

Possessions

Turnover rate

STAN15.5 #105

COLO14.7 #46

Offensive rebound rate

STAN32.5 #109

COLO29.0 #235

Assists per game

STAN11.8 #299

COLO15.4 #67

Defense

Points allowed

STAN73.0 #132

COLO79.8 #313

Points allowed per possession

STAN1.07 #136

COLO1.12 #272

Opponent effective FG%

STAN51.0 #158

COLO52.6 #243

Opponent 3-point %

STAN33.0 #118

COLO36.3 #319

Turnovers forced

STAN18.0 #99

COLO15.2 #267

Defensive rebound rate

STAN70.2 #149

COLO70.4 #144

Steals per game

STAN7.8 #53

COLO6.3 #196

Blocks per game

STAN3.9 #93

COLO3.3 #170

STAN		COLO
Scoring
76.0 #142	Points per game	80.2 #63
1.12 #108	Points per possession	1.13 #80
68.1 #225	Pace (possessions)	71.0 #76
Shooting
51.5 #173	Effective FG%	52.9 #108
35.2 #103	3-point %	35.1 #104
44.0 #89	3-point attempt rate	35.2 #267
35.5 #165	Free throw rate	36.6 #139
Possessions
15.5 #105	Turnover rate	14.7 #46
32.5 #109	Offensive rebound rate	29.0 #235
11.8 #299	Assists per game	15.4 #67
Defense
73.0 #132	Points allowed	79.8 #313
1.07 #136	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #272
51.0 #158	Opponent effective FG%	52.6 #243
33.0 #118	Opponent 3-point %	36.3 #319
18.0 #99	Turnovers forced	15.2 #267
70.2 #149	Defensive rebound rate	70.4 #144
7.8 #53	Steals per game	6.3 #196
3.9 #93	Blocks per game	3.3 #170

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Stanford

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs West Virginia77–82
Lvs Pitt63–64
W@ NC State85–84
W@ Notre Dame86–78
Wvs SMU95–75

A week or more of rest.

Colorado

17-16 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Oklahoma86–90
Lvs Oklahoma St83–92
Lvs Arizona79–89
W@ Utah92–78
L@ Houston62–102

A week or more of rest.

Stanford Cardinal vs Colorado Buffaloes

What could decide it: STAN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Stanford

Colorado

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Stanford

Colorado