Portland Pilots at Stanford Cardinal: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 29, 4:00 PM ETMaples Pavilion · at Stanford

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Portland and Stanford
PORT	This season	STAN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects STAN 82–68 · win probability STAN 89%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 150.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: STAN has more of the edges

PORT 1, STAN 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

STANBig

Three-pointers

PORT hits 29.9% and allows 36.1%; STAN hits 35.2% and allows 33.0%. Threes are 35.4% and 44.0% of their shots

STANBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PORT 28.1%, STAN 32.5%. Defensive: PORT 67.5%, STAN 70.2%

STANBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PORT 19.6%, STAN 15.5%. Forced: PORT 17.0%, STAN 18.0%

STANBig

STAN offense vs PORT defense

Offense 88th of 366 against a defense 202nd, on the model’s ratings

PORTSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: PORT 34.4, STAN 35.5. Allowed: PORT 32.6, STAN 40.3

STANSmall

PORT offense vs STAN defense

Offense 156th of 366 against a defense 79th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: PORT plays 70.2 a game (106th fastest), STAN 68.1 (225th). Faster games mean more points

STANSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: PORT 51.2 and allows 52.7; STAN 51.5 and allows 51.0

STANSmall

Home court

STAN at home. This season: STAN 0-0 at home, PORT 0-0 away

Context

Schedule so far

PORT has played the 124th-hardest schedule, STAN the 76th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PORT 41%, STAN 27%. Transfers in: PORT 4, STAN 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	STAN -13.9	—
Total	—	150.0	—
Projected score	—	PORT 68.1 · STAN 81.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	STAN -8.1	—
1H total	70.1	—
1H projected score	PORT 31 · STAN 39.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PORT LWWWL	15-17	47%	2-11	—
STAN WWWLL	17-16	52%	9-9	—

Venue/role: PORT away; STAN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
PORT UOUUO	14-18	44%	13-19
STAN OOOUO	15-18	45%	20-13

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PORT	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
STAN	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Portland

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 1	@ UCD	W67–63WU
Dec 10	vs LAM	No recent meeting
Dec 13	vs EWU	No recent meeting

Stanford

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	@ TA&M	No recent meeting
Dec 6	vs PAC	W88–78LO
Dec 14	vs UNCO	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

PORT 0–1 STANSTAN leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · PORT 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 1, 2025-26	PORT 72 @ STAN 94	STAN -19.5	STAN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Portland

32 games played

Straight up

13-19

41% wins

Against the spread

15-17

47% covers · avg +0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-18

44% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1941%

W W L W L L W L W L L L L L L W W L W L L L W W L L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1747%

L W L W L L W L W L L L W L W W W L W W L L W W L L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1844%

U U U O O U O O O O U U O U U O O U U U U O O U U O U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	vsUAPB	W 83-74	-12.5	L −3.5	164.5	U 157
Nov 9	vsUCD	W 67-63	-1.5	W +2.5	151.5	U 130
Nov 15	@WYO	L 56-93	+11.5	L −25.5	160.5	U 149
Nov 21	vsCSUF	W 103-85	-6.5	W +11.5	164.5	O 188
Nov 22	vsUNCO	L 80-86	+3.5	L −2.5	157.5	O 166
Nov 23	vsSTMN	L 66-76	+5.5	L −4.5	155.5	U 142
Nov 26	vsLBSU	W 93-73	-5.5	W +14.5	148.5	O 166
Dec 1	@STAN	L 72-94	+19.5	L −2.5	156.5	O 166
Dec 14	vsKENT	W 88-78	+7.5	W +17.5	160.5	O 166
Dec 17	@ORE	L 69-94	+19.5	L −5.5	154.5	O 163
Dec 22	@UCSB	L 61-79	+9.5	L −8.5	147.5	U 140
Dec 28	vsWSU	L 62-67	+3.5	L −1.5	152.5	U 129
Dec 30	vsSCU	L 85-92	+13.5	W +6.5	157.5	O 177
Jan 2	@SMC	L 57-78	+18.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 135
Jan 4	@SF	L 68-73	+11.5	W +6.5	147.5	U 141
Jan 8	vsPAC	W 90-89	+3.5	W +4.5	144.5	O 179
Jan 10	vsORST	W 82-76	-2.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 158
Jan 14	@PEPP	L 63-67	-1.5	L −5.5	147.5	U 130
Jan 17	@LMU	W 71-58	+8.5	W +21.5	148.5	U 129
Jan 24	vsSMC	L 69-75	+14.5	W +8.5	144.5	U 144
Jan 28	@PAC	L 51-74	+8.5	L −14.5	142.5	U 125
Jan 31	@WSU	L 74-104	+8.5	L −21.5	152.5	O 178
Feb 4	vsGONZ	W 87-80	+22.5	W +29.5	152.5	O 167
Feb 7	vsSEA	W 54-53	+3.5	W +4.5	143.5	U 107
Feb 11	@USD	L 58-71	+1.5	L −11.5	150.5	U 129
Feb 18	vsPEPP	L 87-95	-7.5	L −15.5	150.5	O 182
Feb 21	@SEA	L 59-71	+7.5	L −4.5	140.5	U 130
Feb 25	@GONZ	L 48-89	+26.5	L −14.5	150.5	U 137
Feb 28	vsUSD	W 87-74	-2.5	W +10.5	148.5	O 161
Mar 5	vsPEPP	W 77-68	-3.5	W +5.5	154.5	U 145
Mar 6	vsWSU	W 74-68	+5.5	W +11.5	149.5	U 142
Mar 7	vsSF	L 65-82	+6.5	L −10.5	146.5	O 147

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UAPB

W 83-74

−3.5

UCD

W 67-63

+2.5

WYO

L 56-93

−25.5

CSUF

W 103-85

+11.5

UNCO

L 80-86

−2.5

STMN

L 66-76

−4.5

LBSU

W 93-73

+14.5

STAN

L 72-94

−2.5

KENT

W 88-78

+17.5

ORE

L 69-94

−5.5

UCSB

L 61-79

−8.5

WSU

L 62-67

−1.5

SCU

L 85-92

+6.5

SMC

L 57-78

−2.5

L 68-73

+6.5

PAC

W 90-89

+4.5

ORST

W 82-76

+3.5

PEPP

L 63-67

−5.5

LMU

W 71-58

+21.5

SMC

L 69-75

+8.5

PAC

L 51-74

−14.5

WSU

L 74-104

−21.5

GONZ

W 87-80

+29.5

SEA

W 54-53

+4.5

USD

L 58-71

−11.5

PEPP

L 87-95

−15.5

SEA

L 59-71

−4.5

GONZ

L 48-89

−14.5

USD

W 87-74

+10.5

PEPP

W 77-68

+5.5

WSU

W 74-68

+11.5

L 65-82

−10.5

covered 15didn’t cover 17avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UAPB

W 83-74

−7.5

UCD

W 67-63

−21.5

WYO

L 56-93

−11.5

CSUF

W 103-85

+23.5

UNCO

L 80-86

+8.5

STMN

L 66-76

−13.5

LBSU

W 93-73

+17.5

STAN

L 72-94

+9.5

KENT

W 88-78

+5.5

ORE

L 69-94

+8.5

UCSB

L 61-79

−7.5

WSU

L 62-67

−23.5

SCU

L 85-92

+19.5

SMC

L 57-78

−11.5

L 68-73

−6.5

PAC

W 90-89

+34.5

ORST

W 82-76

+12.5

PEPP

L 63-67

−17.5

LMU

W 71-58

−19.5

SMC

L 69-75

−0.5

PAC

L 51-74

−17.5

WSU

L 74-104

+25.5

GONZ

W 87-80

+14.5

SEA

W 54-53

−36.5

USD

L 58-71

−21.5

PEPP

L 87-95

+31.5

SEA

L 59-71

−10.5

GONZ

L 48-89

−13.5

USD

W 87-74

+12.5

PEPP

W 77-68

−9.5

WSU

W 74-68

−7.5

L 65-82

+0.5

over 14under 18avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Stanford

33 games played

Straight up

20-13

61% wins

Against the spread

17-16

52% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-18

45% overs · avg +0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-1361%

W W W W L W W W L W W W W L W W L W L L L L L W W L L W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

17-1652%

L W L W L W W W L L W W L L W W L W L L W L W W W L L L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1845%

O O U O U U U O U O U U O U U U U O U U O O U O U U U O O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsPRST	W 89-79	-11.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 168
Nov 8	vsMONT	W 91-68	-12.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 159
Nov 12	vsMTST	W 77-68	-14.5	L −5.5	148.5	U 145
Nov 18	vsUL	W 93-66	-20.5	W +6.5	139.5	O 159
Nov 21	vsSEA	L 69-77	-10.5	L −18.5	152.5	U 146
Nov 27	vsMINN	W 72-68	-2.5	W +1.5	142.5	U 140
Nov 28	vsSLU	W 78-77	+1.5	W +2.5	160.5	U 155
Dec 1	vsPORT	W 94-72	-19.5	W +2.5	156.5	O 166
Dec 7	vsUNLV	L 74-75	-9.5	L −10.5	164.5	U 149
Dec 13	@SJSU	W 86-82	-8.5	L −4.5	145.5	O 168
Dec 17	vsUTA	W 76-60	-10.5	W +5.5	139.5	U 136
Dec 20	vsCOLO	W 77-68	+2.5	W +11.5	154.5	U 145
Dec 27	vsCSUN	W 88-80	-15.5	L −7.5	160.5	O 168
Dec 30	vsND	L 40-47	-6.5	L −13.5	143.5	U 87
Jan 2	vsLOU	W 80-76	+7.5	W +11.5	157.5	U 156
Jan 7	@VT	W 69-68	+3.5	W +4.5	148.5	U 137
Jan 10	@UVA	L 55-70	+12.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 125
Jan 14	vsUNC	W 95-90	+4.5	W +9.5	147.5	O 185
Jan 17	vsDUKE	L 50-80	+11.5	L −18.5	148.5	U 130
Jan 24	vsCAL	L 66-78	-4.5	L −16.5	146.5	U 144
Jan 28	@MIA	L 70-79	+9.5	W +0.5	147.5	O 149
Jan 31	@FSU	L 80-88	+3.5	L −4.5	152.5	O 168
Feb 4	vsCLEM	L 64-66	+3.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 130
Feb 7	vsGT	W 95-72	-9.5	W +13.5	151.5	O 167
Feb 11	@BC	W 70-64	-3.5	W +2.5	139.5	U 134
Feb 14	@WAKE	L 63-68	+4.5	L −0.5	150.5	U 131
Feb 21	@CAL	L 66-72	+1.5	L −4.5	149.5	U 138
Feb 25	vsPITT	W 75-67	-8.5	L −0.5	138.5	O 142
Feb 28	vsSMU	W 95-75	+1.5	W +21.5	155.5	O 170
Mar 4	@ND	W 86-78	-1.5	W +6.5	147.5	O 164
Mar 7	@NCSU	W 85-84	+9.5	W +10.5	152.5	O 169
Mar 10	vsPITT	L 63-64	-4.5	L −5.5	136.5	U 127
Apr 2	vsWVU	L 77-82	+2.5	L −2.5	135.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PRST

W 89-79

−1.5

MONT

W 91-68

+10.5

MTST

W 77-68

−5.5

W 93-66

+6.5

SEA

L 69-77

−18.5

MINN

W 72-68

+1.5

SLU

W 78-77

+2.5

PORT

W 94-72

+2.5

UNLV

L 74-75

−10.5

SJSU

W 86-82

−4.5

UTA

W 76-60

+5.5

COLO

W 77-68

+11.5

CSUN

W 88-80

−7.5

L 40-47

−13.5

LOU

W 80-76

+11.5

W 69-68

+4.5

UVA

L 55-70

−2.5

UNC

W 95-90

+9.5

DUKE

L 50-80

−18.5

CAL

L 66-78

−16.5

MIA

L 70-79

+0.5

FSU

L 80-88

−4.5

CLEM

L 64-66

+1.5

W 95-72

+13.5

W 70-64

+2.5

WAKE

L 63-68

−0.5

CAL

L 66-72

−4.5

PITT

W 75-67

−0.5

SMU

W 95-75

+21.5

W 86-78

+6.5

NCSU

W 85-84

+10.5

PITT

L 63-64

−5.5

WVU

L 77-82

−2.5

covered 17didn’t cover 16avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PRST

W 89-79

+23.5

MONT

W 91-68

+8.5

MTST

W 77-68

−3.5

W 93-66

+19.5

SEA

L 69-77

−6.5

MINN

W 72-68

−2.5

SLU

W 78-77

−5.5

PORT

W 94-72

+9.5

UNLV

L 74-75

−15.5

SJSU

W 86-82

+22.5

UTA

W 76-60

−3.5

COLO

W 77-68

−9.5

CSUN

W 88-80

+7.5

L 40-47

−56.5

LOU

W 80-76

−1.5

W 69-68

−11.5

UVA

L 55-70

−18.5

UNC

W 95-90

+37.5

DUKE

L 50-80

−18.5

CAL

L 66-78

−2.5

MIA

L 70-79

+1.5

FSU

L 80-88

+15.5

CLEM

L 64-66

−8.5

W 95-72

+15.5

W 70-64

−5.5

WAKE

L 63-68

−19.5

CAL

L 66-72

−11.5

PITT

W 75-67

+3.5

SMU

W 95-75

+14.5

W 86-78

+16.5

NCSU

W 85-84

+16.5

PITT

L 63-64

−9.5

WVU

L 77-82

+23.5

over 15under 18avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Stanford has the better starters

Position by position: Portland 2, Stanford 3, even 0

PortlandBetterStanford

G J. Olvera TR13.7 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.9 ast Score 51

STANSmall

G C. Bliss TR16.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 5.9 ast Score 84

G K. Isaac TR5 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 10

STANBig

F N. Townsend TR16.6 pts · 7.3 reb · 4.4 ast Score 93

G D. Censori-Hercules3.2 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 22

STANSmall

F A. Cammann6.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 56

F J. O'Donnell9.5 pts · 4.2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 60

PORTSmall

F D. Young2.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 26

F T. George11.7 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 93

PORTSmall

C A. Maurer TR7.2 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 70

PortlandBetterStanford

PORT offense156th of 366 · -4.7

STANSmall

STAN defense79th of 366 · +0.4

PORT defense202nd of 366 · -5.0

STANSmall

STAN offense88th of 366 · +0.2

Backcourt-5.2 · 3 players

STANBig

Backcourt+2.6 · 1 player

Frontcourt+2.9 · 2 players

STANSmall

Frontcourt+4.6 · 4 players

Bench-0.2 · 3 players

Even

Bench-0.1 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestPORT betterSTAN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Portland

Guards

J. Olvera29 min · TRK. Isaac24 min · TRD. Censori-Hercules21 minR. Parker19 minH. Adam15 min · TRR. NanceNew

Forwards

J. O'Donnell23 minT. George20 minV. Perkovic7 min · TRO. SukurNewH. SewellNew

Stanford

Guards

C. Bliss40 min · TRE. Kitch1 minA. BatsonNewM. JonesNewJ. PriceNewI. RogersNew

Forwards

N. Townsend34 min · TRA. Cammann22 minD. Young15 minK. Skrinda6 minE. Stinson5 minT. Toure4 min

Centers

A. Maurer18 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PORT72.1 #238

STAN76.0 #142

Points per possession

PORT1.02 #299

STAN1.12 #108

Pace (possessions)

PORT70.2 #106

STAN68.1 #225

Shooting

Effective FG%

PORT51.2 #188

STAN51.5 #173

3-point %

PORT29.9 #344

STAN35.2 #103

3-point attempt rate

PORT35.4 #263

STAN44.0 #89

Free throw rate

PORT34.4 #197

STAN35.5 #165

Possessions

Turnover rate

PORT19.6 #342

STAN15.5 #105

Offensive rebound rate

PORT28.1 #266

STAN32.5 #109

Assists per game

PORT15.9 #51

STAN11.8 #299

Defense

Points allowed

PORT78.1 #271

STAN73.0 #132

Points allowed per possession

PORT1.11 #258

STAN1.07 #136

Opponent effective FG%

PORT52.7 #255

STAN51.0 #158

Opponent 3-point %

PORT36.1 #308

STAN33.0 #118

Turnovers forced

PORT17.0 #148

STAN18.0 #99

Defensive rebound rate

PORT67.5 #281

STAN70.2 #149

Steals per game

PORT5.8 #251

STAN7.8 #53

Blocks per game

PORT2.9 #246

STAN3.9 #93

PORT		STAN
Scoring
72.1 #238	Points per game	76.0 #142
1.02 #299	Points per possession	1.12 #108
70.2 #106	Pace (possessions)	68.1 #225
Shooting
51.2 #188	Effective FG%	51.5 #173
29.9 #344	3-point %	35.2 #103
35.4 #263	3-point attempt rate	44.0 #89
34.4 #197	Free throw rate	35.5 #165
Possessions
19.6 #342	Turnover rate	15.5 #105
28.1 #266	Offensive rebound rate	32.5 #109
15.9 #51	Assists per game	11.8 #299
Defense
78.1 #271	Points allowed	73.0 #132
1.11 #258	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #136
52.7 #255	Opponent effective FG%	51.0 #158
36.1 #308	Opponent 3-point %	33.0 #118
17.0 #148	Turnovers forced	18.0 #99
67.5 #281	Defensive rebound rate	70.2 #149
5.8 #251	Steals per game	7.8 #53
2.9 #246	Blocks per game	3.9 #93

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Portland

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs San Francisco65–82
Wvs Washington St74–68
Wvs Pepperdine77–68
Wvs San Diego87–74
L@ Gonzaga48–89

A week or more of rest.

Stanford

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs West Virginia77–82
Lvs Pitt63–64
W@ NC State85–84
W@ Notre Dame86–78
Wvs SMU95–75

A week or more of rest.

Portland Pilots at Stanford Cardinal

What could decide it: STAN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Portland

Stanford

Stanford has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Portland

Stanford