William & Mary Tribe at James Madison Dukes: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 29, 4:00 PM ETAtlantic Union Bank Center · at James Madison

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: William & Mary and James Madison
W&M	This season	JMU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects JMU 78–74 · win probability JMU 65%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 152.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: JMU has more of the edges

W&M 2, JMU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

W&MBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: W&M 16.6%, JMU 17.3%. Forced: W&M 18.9%, JMU 12.8%

W&MBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: W&M 44.0, JMU 35.9. Allowed: W&M 35.5, JMU 40.8

JMUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: W&M 26.0%, JMU 30.6%. Defensive: W&M 68.5%, JMU 70.5%

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: W&M plays 73.6 a game (14th fastest), JMU 67.5 (253rd). Faster games mean more points

JMUSmall

JMU offense vs W&M defense

Offense 181st of 366 against a defense 289th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

W&M has played the 171st-hardest schedule, JMU the 257th. A record against a soft schedule means less

JMUSmall

Three-pointers

W&M hits 33.0% and allows 33.0%; JMU hits 35.4% and allows 32.7%. Threes are 42.8% and 42.5% of their shots

JMUSmall

Home court

JMU at home. This season: JMU 0-0 at home, W&M 0-0 away

JMUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: W&M 54.3 and allows 51.9; JMU 53.1 and allows 49.0

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: W&M 1%, JMU 17%. Transfers in: W&M 7, JMU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

W&M offense vs JMU defense

Offense 160th of 366 against a defense 154th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	JMU -4.4	—
Total	—	152.1	—
Projected score	—	W&M 73.8 · JMU 78.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	JMU -2.5	—
1H total	71.1	—
1H projected score	W&M 34.3 · JMU 36.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
W&M LLLWL	16-14	53%	7-8	—
JMU WWLWL	13-19	41%	5-9	—

Venue/role: W&M away; JMU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
W&M UOOUO	13-17	43%	18-12
JMU OUUOO	15-17	47%	17-15

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
W&M	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
JMU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

William & Mary

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 7	@ MISS	No recent meeting
Dec 10	@ DEL	L78–100LO

James Madison

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 3	@ ELON	L66–70LU
Dec 6	vs LONG	L72–82LO
Dec 9	@ NCAT	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

W&M 0–2 JMUJMU leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · JMU has won the last 2 meetings · W&M 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 12, 2021-22	W&M 55 @ JMU 69	JMU -9.5	JMU W
Jan 15, 2021-22	JMU 95 @ W&M 91	W&M +11.5	W&M W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

William & Mary

30 games played

Straight up

18-12

60% wins

Against the spread

16-14

53% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-17

43% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1260%

W L L W W W W W L W W W L L L W W W L L W L W L L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1453%

W W L W W W W W W W W W L L L L W W L L W L W L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-1743%

O O U U U O U U O O U U O U U O U O U O O U U U U U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@NORF	W 81-78	-2.5	W +0.5	158.5	O 159
Nov 11	@RICH	L 86-90	+9.5	W +5.5	164.5	O 176
Nov 15	@SJU	L 60-93	+28.5	L −4.5	179.5	U 153
Nov 19	@BGSU	W 82-74	+8.5	W +16.5	167.5	U 156
Nov 24	vsUTEP	W 74-63	-2.5	W +8.5	159.5	U 137
Nov 25	vsACU	W 92-58	+1.5	W +35.5	147.5	O 150
Nov 30	vsODU	W 88-75	-8.5	W +4.5	163.5	U 163
Dec 2	@DUQ	W 83-79	+5.5	W +9.5	170.5	U 162
Dec 6	@GW	L 86-99	+13.5	W +0.5	174.5	O 185
Dec 18	vsRAD	W 96-83	-8.5	W +4.5	170.5	O 179
Dec 29	vsTOW	W 84-70	-1.5	W +12.5	157.5	U 154
Dec 31	vsSTBK	W 76-57	-11.5	W +7.5	159.5	U 133
Jan 5	@COFC	L 79-88	+2.5	L −6.5	165.5	O 167
Jan 8	@MONM	L 70-81	-2.5	L −13.5	156.5	U 151
Jan 10	@DREX	L 58-64	-3.5	L −9.5	150.5	U 122
Jan 15	vsNCAT	W 97-89	-13.5	L −5.5	162.5	O 186
Jan 22	vsUNCW	W 77-70	-2.5	W +4.5	159.5	U 147
Jan 24	vsHOF	W 89-82	-3.5	W +3.5	157.5	O 171
Jan 29	@ELON	L 76-79	-1.5	L −4.5	169.5	U 155
Jan 31	vsCAM	L 96-104	-8.5	L −16.5	168.5	O 200
Feb 5	@UNCW	W 85-78	+4.5	W +11.5	159.5	O 163
Feb 7	@HAMP	L 74-77	-5.5	L −8.5	152.5	U 151
Feb 12	@NE	W 94-67	-5.5	W +21.5	167.5	U 161
Feb 14	vsELON	L 78-81	-8.5	L −11.5	165.5	U 159
Feb 19	@CAM	L 83-84	-1.5	L −2.5	167.5	U 167
Feb 26	vsNE	W 84-77	-11.5	L −4.5	164.5	U 161
Feb 28	@NCAT	W 91-88	-8.5	L −5.5	163.5	O 179
Mar 3	vsHAMP	W 94-85	-11.5	L −2.5	163.5	O 179
Mar 7	vsELON	W 72-62	-5.5	W +4.5	163.5	U 134
Mar 8	vsHOF	L 61-92	+2.5	L −28.5	152.5	O 153

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NORF

W 81-78

+0.5

RICH

L 86-90

+5.5

SJU

L 60-93

−4.5

BGSU

W 82-74

+16.5

UTEP

W 74-63

+8.5

ACU

W 92-58

+35.5

ODU

W 88-75

+4.5

DUQ

W 83-79

+9.5

L 86-99

+0.5

RAD

W 96-83

+4.5

TOW

W 84-70

+12.5

STBK

W 76-57

+7.5

COFC

L 79-88

−6.5

MONM

L 70-81

−13.5

DREX

L 58-64

−9.5

NCAT

W 97-89

−5.5

UNCW

W 77-70

+4.5

HOF

W 89-82

+3.5

ELON

L 76-79

−4.5

CAM

L 96-104

−16.5

UNCW

W 85-78

+11.5

HAMP

L 74-77

−8.5

W 94-67

+21.5

ELON

L 78-81

−11.5

CAM

L 83-84

−2.5

W 84-77

−4.5

NCAT

W 91-88

−5.5

HAMP

W 94-85

−2.5

ELON

W 72-62

+4.5

HOF

L 61-92

−28.5

covered 16didn’t cover 14avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NORF

W 81-78

+0.5

RICH

L 86-90

+11.5

SJU

L 60-93

−26.5

BGSU

W 82-74

−11.5

UTEP

W 74-63

−22.5

ACU

W 92-58

+2.5

ODU

W 88-75

−0.5

DUQ

W 83-79

−8.5

L 86-99

+10.5

RAD

W 96-83

+8.5

TOW

W 84-70

−3.5

STBK

W 76-57

−26.5

COFC

L 79-88

+1.5

MONM

L 70-81

−5.5

DREX

L 58-64

−28.5

NCAT

W 97-89

+23.5

UNCW

W 77-70

−12.5

HOF

W 89-82

+13.5

ELON

L 76-79

−14.5

CAM

L 96-104

+31.5

UNCW

W 85-78

+3.5

HAMP

L 74-77

−1.5

W 94-67

−6.5

ELON

L 78-81

−6.5

CAM

L 83-84

−0.5

W 84-77

−3.5

NCAT

W 91-88

+15.5

HAMP

W 94-85

+15.5

ELON

W 72-62

−29.5

HOF

L 61-92

+0.5

over 13under 17avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

James Madison

32 games played

Straight up

17-15

53% wins

Against the spread

13-19

41% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-17

47% overs · avg +3.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1553%

L W L L W W W L W W L L L W L W L L L W W L L W W W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1941%

L L L L W W W L L L L L L W L L L W L W W L L W L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1747%

O O O O O U O O U U U O O U U U O U O U U U U U O U U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@AKR	L 71-85	+8.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 156
Nov 9	vsCOPP	W 84-70	-18.5	L −4.5	141.5	O 154
Nov 12	@LONG	L 72-82	-1.5	L −11.5	149.5	O 154
Nov 15	@LIU	L 79-88	+3.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 167
Nov 18	vsTOW	W 81-75	+3.5	W +9.5	140.5	O 156
Nov 24	@FIU	W 80-72	+2.5	W +10.5	155.5	U 152
Nov 25	vsOMA	W 88-77	-1.5	W +9.5	152.5	O 165
Nov 29	@GMU	L 66-82	+12.5	L −3.5	141.5	O 148
Dec 3	vsNCCU	W 67-62	-14.5	L −9.5	143.5	U 129
Dec 6	vsNORF	W 68-67	-10.5	L −9.5	138.5	U 135
Dec 17	@ODU	L 68-77	-2.5	L −11.5	148.5	U 145
Dec 20	@GASO	L 92-96	+2.5	L −1.5	153.5	O 188
Dec 29	@ARK	L 74-103	+23.5	L −5.5	159.5	O 177
Jan 3	@ARST	W 78-74	+10.5	W +14.5	158.5	U 152
Jan 7	vsMRSH	L 64-66	-1.5	L −3.5	152.5	U 130
Jan 10	vsODU	W 70-69	-6.5	L −5.5	147.5	U 139
Jan 15	@APP	L 65-80	+2.5	L −12.5	133.5	O 145
Jan 17	@MRSH	L 72-77	+6.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 149
Jan 22	vsUSA	L 83-90	-4.5	L −11.5	138.5	O 173
Jan 24	vsTXST	W 82-57	-5.5	W +19.5	143.5	U 139
Jan 29	@TROY	W 73-64	+9.5	W +18.5	147.5	U 137
Jan 31	@USM	L 65-73	+1.5	L −6.5	143.5	U 138
Feb 4	vsUL	L 61-64	-9.5	L −12.5	132.5	U 125
Feb 7	vsTOL	W 73-71	+1.5	W +3.5	153.5	U 144
Feb 12	vsGAST	W 81-79	-5.5	L −3.5	144.5	O 160
Feb 14	vsAPP	W 69-58	+1.5	W +12.5	134.5	U 127
Feb 18	@CCU	W 67-65	-1.5	W +0.5	140.5	U 132
Feb 21	@GAST	W 80-65	-2.5	W +12.5	142.5	O 145
Feb 25	vsGASO	W 82-66	-5.5	W +10.5	153.5	U 148
Feb 27	vsCCU	L 68-69	-6.5	L −7.5	141.5	U 137
Mar 4	vsUL	W 87-72	-6.5	W +8.5	134.5	O 159
Mar 5	vsUSM	L 80-86	-2.5	L −8.5	143.5	O 166

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AKR

L 71-85

−5.5

COPP

W 84-70

−4.5

LONG

L 72-82

−11.5

LIU

L 79-88

−5.5

TOW

W 81-75

+9.5

FIU

W 80-72

+10.5

OMA

W 88-77

+9.5

GMU

L 66-82

−3.5

NCCU

W 67-62

−9.5

NORF

W 68-67

−9.5

ODU

L 68-77

−11.5

GASO

L 92-96

−1.5

ARK

L 74-103

−5.5

ARST

W 78-74

+14.5

MRSH

L 64-66

−3.5

ODU

W 70-69

−5.5

APP

L 65-80

−12.5

MRSH

L 72-77

+1.5

USA

L 83-90

−11.5

TXST

W 82-57

+19.5

TROY

W 73-64

+18.5

USM

L 65-73

−6.5

L 61-64

−12.5

TOL

W 73-71

+3.5

GAST

W 81-79

−3.5

APP

W 69-58

+12.5

CCU

W 67-65

+0.5

GAST

W 80-65

+12.5

GASO

W 82-66

+10.5

CCU

L 68-69

−7.5

W 87-72

+8.5

USM

L 80-86

−8.5

covered 13didn’t cover 19avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AKR

L 71-85

+2.5

COPP

W 84-70

+12.5

LONG

L 72-82

+4.5

LIU

L 79-88

+19.5

TOW

W 81-75

+15.5

FIU

W 80-72

−3.5

OMA

W 88-77

+12.5

GMU

L 66-82

+6.5

NCCU

W 67-62

−14.5

NORF

W 68-67

−3.5

ODU

L 68-77

−3.5

GASO

L 92-96

+34.5

ARK

L 74-103

+17.5

ARST

W 78-74

−6.5

MRSH

L 64-66

−22.5

ODU

W 70-69

−8.5

APP

L 65-80

+11.5

MRSH

L 72-77

−0.5

USA

L 83-90

+34.5

TXST

W 82-57

−4.5

TROY

W 73-64

−10.5

USM

L 65-73

−5.5

L 61-64

−7.5

TOL

W 73-71

−9.5

GAST

W 81-79

+15.5

APP

W 69-58

−7.5

CCU

W 67-65

−8.5

GAST

W 80-65

+2.5

GASO

W 82-66

−5.5

CCU

L 68-69

−4.5

W 87-72

+24.5

USM

L 80-86

+22.5

over 15under 17avg +3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: William & Mary 1, James Madison 1, even 3

William & MaryBetterJames Madison

G J. Baldwin TR7.7 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.2 ast Score 63

W&MSmall

G G. Lattimore TR15.5 pts · 4.4 reb · 2.3 ast Score 48

G J. McIntosh TR6.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 48

JMUSmall

G A. Myers TR11.1 pts · 4.9 reb · 1 ast Score 73

G T. Blassingame TR3.7 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 18

No call

G C. Reilly TR3 pts · 1 reb · 1 ast Not ranked

G N. Daniels TR2 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked

No call

F J. Hogarth TR10.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 1.4 ast Score 61

F S. Sivka TR2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 15

Even

F P. Fowler6.3 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 25

William & MaryBetterJames Madison

W&M offense160th of 366 · -4.8

Even

JMU defense154th of 366 · -3.4

W&M defense289th of 366 · -7.2

JMUSmall

JMU offense181st of 366 · -5.7

Backcourt-2.6 · 4 players

Even

Backcourt-2.0 · 3 players

Frontcourt-1.0 · 1 player

Even

Frontcourt-1.3 · 2 players

Bench-0.4 · 3 players

W&MBig

Bench-3.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestW&M betterJMU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

William & Mary

Guards

J. Baldwin20 min · TRJ. McIntosh17 min · TRT. Blassingame17 min · TRN. Daniels10 min · TRZ. Clark9 min · TRJ. Forsythe4 min · TR

Forwards

S. Sivka11 min · TRB. CarterNewJ. RolandNew

James Madison

Guards

G. Lattimore37 min · TRA. Myers29 min · TRC. Reilly23 min · TRK. Windham13 min · TRP. Jones11 minB. Lee5 min · TR

Forwards

J. Hogarth25 min · TRP. Fowler23 minG. Sundra18 min · TRM. Curtis16 min · TRJ. BrownNewA. EvansNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

W&M81.5 #38

JMU74.7 #172

Points per possession

W&M1.11 #116

JMU1.10 #128

Pace (possessions)

W&M73.6 #14

JMU67.5 #253

Shooting

Effective FG%

W&M54.3 #58

JMU53.1 #97

3-point %

W&M33.0 #233

JMU35.4 #94

3-point attempt rate

W&M42.8 #120

JMU42.5 #128

Free throw rate

W&M44.0 #9

JMU35.9 #153

Possessions

Turnover rate

W&M16.6 #171

JMU17.3 #225

Offensive rebound rate

W&M26.0 #324

JMU30.6 #175

Assists per game

W&M17.4 #17

JMU12.5 #252

Defense

Points allowed

W&M78.9 #294

JMU74.4 #170

Points allowed per possession

W&M1.07 #126

JMU1.10 #226

Opponent effective FG%

W&M51.9 #205

JMU49.0 #66

Opponent 3-point %

W&M33.0 #126

JMU32.7 #101

Turnovers forced

W&M18.9 #52

JMU12.8 #359

Defensive rebound rate

W&M68.5 #229

JMU70.5 #134

Steals per game

W&M7.9 #47

JMU5.1 #327

Blocks per game

W&M3.8 #95

JMU4.1 #68

W&M		JMU
Scoring
81.5 #38	Points per game	74.7 #172
1.11 #116	Points per possession	1.10 #128
73.6 #14	Pace (possessions)	67.5 #253
Shooting
54.3 #58	Effective FG%	53.1 #97
33.0 #233	3-point %	35.4 #94
42.8 #120	3-point attempt rate	42.5 #128
44.0 #9	Free throw rate	35.9 #153
Possessions
16.6 #171	Turnover rate	17.3 #225
26.0 #324	Offensive rebound rate	30.6 #175
17.4 #17	Assists per game	12.5 #252
Defense
78.9 #294	Points allowed	74.4 #170
1.07 #126	Points allowed per possession	1.10 #226
51.9 #205	Opponent effective FG%	49.0 #66
33.0 #126	Opponent 3-point %	32.7 #101
18.9 #52	Turnovers forced	12.8 #359
68.5 #229	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #134
7.9 #47	Steals per game	5.1 #327
3.8 #95	Blocks per game	4.1 #68

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

William & Mary

18-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Hofstra61–92
Wvs Elon72–62
Wvs Hampton94–85
W@ NC A&T91–88
Wvs Northeastern84–77

A week or more of rest.

James Madison

17-15 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Southern Miss80–86
Wvs Louisiana87–72
Lvs Coastal68–69
Wvs GA Southern82–66
W@ Georgia St80–65

A week or more of rest.

William & Mary Tribe at James Madison Dukes

What could decide it: JMU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

William & Mary

James Madison

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

William & Mary

James Madison