1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 24
  3. SJU vs ORE
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 24

St. John's Red Storm vs Oregon Ducks

Michelob ULTRA Arena · Neutral site
#9SJUSt John's AP #13
vs
#57OREOregon
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SJUThis seasonORE
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SJU 82–69 · win probability SJU 86%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 151.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SJU has more of the edges

SJU 6, ORE 0 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
SJUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SJU 14.4%, ORE 17.6%. Forced: SJU 19.1%, ORE 15.8%
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: SJU plays 70.8 a game (82nd fastest), ORE 66.8 (287th). Faster games mean more points
SJUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: SJU 51.0 and allows 47.5; ORE 49.5 and allows 50.9
SJUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SJU 35.2%, ORE 32.3%. Defensive: SJU 70.1%, ORE 67.7%
SJUSmall
Three-pointers
SJU hits 33.5% and allows 31.3%; ORE hits 32.0% and allows 33.4%. Threes are 35.2% and 42.8% of their shots
SJUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: SJU 40.2, ORE 35.0. Allowed: SJU 31.8, ORE 32.0
SJUSmall
ORE offense vs SJU defense
Offense 66th of 366 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings
Even
SJU offense vs ORE defense
Offense 8th of 366 against a defense 39th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
SJU has played the 15th-hardest schedule, ORE the 25th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SJU 22%, ORE 23%. Transfers in: SJU 6, ORE 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SJU -12.5—
Total—151.3—
Projected score—SJU 81.9 · ORE 69.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSJU -7.6—
1H total70.7—
1H projected scoreSJU 39.2 · ORE 31.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

St John's has the better starters

Position by position: St John's 4, Oregon 0, even 1
St John'sBetterOregon
G T. Yessoufou TR17.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 96
Even
G F. Payne TR15.8 pts · 4.2 reb · 2.7 ast Score 88
G I. Jackson9.4 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 93
SJUSmall
G T. Riley TR12.3 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 78
F K. Hall TR19.3 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 98
SJUSmall
F A. Meadow TR12 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 77
F D. Freeman TR16.5 pts · 7.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 92
SJUSmall
F S. Stewart6.5 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 64
F R. Bailey TR8.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 90
SJUSmall
F T. Bol Bowen TR6.3 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 67
St John'sBetterOregon
SJU offense8th of 366 · +10.5
Even
ORE defense39th of 366 · +3.0
SJU defense11th of 366 · +7.0
SJUSmall
ORE offense66th of 366 · +1.8
Backcourt+6.5 · 2 players
SJUSmall
Backcourt+4.1 · 2 players
Frontcourt+12.5 · 3 players
SJUBig
Frontcourt+2.6 · 3 players
Bench-1.7 · 5 players
OREBig
Bench+1.8 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestSJU betterORE betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
St John's
Guards
T. Yessoufou33 min · TRI. Jackson18 minK. Cuffe16 min · TRA. Brown15 min · TRL. Liotopoulos8 minC. Pohto5 min
Forwards
K. Hall34 min · TRD. Freeman31 min · TRR. Bailey19 min · TRR. Prey11 minZ. MaronkaNewB. SaneNew
Centers
T. EdemaNewL. StojkovicNew
Oregon
Guards
F. Payne35 min · TRT. Riley32 min · TRJ. Easter18 min · TRW. Lin18 minJ. Johnson12 min · TRR. GonzalesNew
Forwards
A. Meadow30 min · TRS. Stewart23 minT. Bol Bowen19 min · TRP. Compton14 min · TRD. Aristode13 min · TRL. Johnson6 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SJUORE
Scoring
80.9 #45Points per game70.8 #267
1.14 #68Points per possession1.06 #235
70.8 #82Pace (possessions)66.8 #287
Shooting
51.0 #192Effective FG%49.5 #271
33.5 #1973-point %32.0 #277
35.2 #2723-point attempt rate42.8 #121
40.2 #57Free throw rate35.0 #181
Possessions
14.4 #38Turnover rate17.6 #244
35.2 #43Offensive rebound rate32.3 #114
16.1 #44Assists per game14.3 #126
Defense
69.7 #59Points allowed73.9 #155
0.98 #15Points allowed per possession1.11 #249
47.5 #32Opponent effective FG%50.9 #148
31.3 #39Opponent 3-point %33.4 #144
19.1 #46Turnovers forced15.8 #231
70.1 #154Defensive rebound rate67.7 #271
7.7 #58Steals per game6.1 #231
4.8 #22Blocks per game3.9 #79
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

St John's

30-7 in 2025-26 overall · 21-2 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Duke75–80
  • Wvs Kansas67–65
  • Wvs Northern Iowa79–53
  • Wvs UConn72–52
  • Wvs Seton Hall78–68

A week or more of rest.

Oregon

12-20 in 2025-26 overall · 5-16 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Maryland60–70
  • Wvs Washington85–79
  • L@ Illinois54–80
  • L@ Northwestern62–63
  • Wvs Wisconsin85–71

A week or more of rest.