1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 24
  3. BAY vs ALA
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 24

Baylor Bears vs Alabama Crimson Tide

T-Mobile Arena · Neutral site
#29BAYBaylor
vs
#15ALAAlabama AP #20
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
BAYThis seasonALA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ALA 88–81 · win probability ALA 72%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 168.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ALA has more of the edges

BAY 1, ALA 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
ALASmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: BAY 53.4 and allows 52.4; ALA 55.2 and allows 49.2
ALASmall
Three-pointers
BAY hits 33.9% and allows 34.8%; ALA hits 35.8% and allows 33.8%. Threes are 39.6% and 54.3% of their shots
BAYSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: BAY 36.9%, ALA 32.4%. Defensive: BAY 68.7%, ALA 67.2%
Context
Tempo
About 72 possessions: BAY plays 69.3 a game (161st fastest), ALA 74.7 (7th). Faster games mean more points
Even
ALA offense vs BAY defense
Offense 2nd of 366 against a defense 45th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: BAY 26%, ALA 46%. Transfers in: BAY 4, ALA 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
BAY offense vs ALA defense
Offense 29th of 366 against a defense 54th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
BAY has played the 19th-hardest schedule, ALA the 1st. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: BAY 34.1, ALA 36.0. Allowed: BAY 30.1, ALA 32.0
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: BAY 16.2%, ALA 13.1%. Forced: BAY 15.9%, ALA 12.8%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—ALA -6.6—
Total—168.4—
Projected score—BAY 80.9 · ALA 87.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadALA -3.8—
1H total78.6—
1H projected scoreBAY 37.4 · ALA 41.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Baylor 1, Alabama 1, even 3
BaylorBetterAlabama
G B. Decker TR16.9 pts · 2.5 reb · 1 ast Score 76
ALASmall
G A. Holloway16.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99
G K. Mingo TR13.7 pts · 3.5 reb · 4.3 ast Score 92
Even
G A. Allen11.4 pts · 6.9 reb · 3.1 ast Score 94
G I. Williams10.1 pts · 2.2 reb · 3.3 ast Score 89
Even
F D. Fielder TR14.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 98
F I. Celiscar TR13.1 pts · 6.4 reb · 3.2 ast Score 88
BAYSmall
F J. Davis-Fleming TR3.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.7 ast Score 59
F E. Chatman TR8.9 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 71
Even
F B. Garrison TR4.7 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 73
BaylorBetterAlabama
BAY offense29th of 366 · +6.5
Even
ALA defense54th of 366 · +1.5
BAY defense45th of 366 · +2.4
Even
ALA offense2nd of 366 · +13.7
Backcourt+6.4 · 3 players
ALASmall
Backcourt+8.7 · 2 players
Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players
ALASmall
Frontcourt+5.2 · 3 players
Bench+1.5 · 3 players
BAYSmall
Bench+0.5 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestBAY betterALA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Baylor
Guards
B. Decker34 min · TRK. Mingo32 min · TRI. Williams25 minD. Perry2 minJ. Goodis1 minA. IguodalaNew
Forwards
I. Celiscar32 min · TRE. Chatman29 min · TRM. PerezNewE. WilliamsNew
Centers
C. Powell24 minJ. Bodo BodoNewM. SoyoyeNewT. MakabuNew
Alabama
Guards
A. Holloway28 minA. Allen28 minP. Murphy3 minC. CloerNewQ. SamuelsNewA. DiazNew
Forwards
D. Fielder24 min · TRJ. Davis-Fleming20 min · TRB. Garrison16 min · TRL. Jemison16 minK. Bristow13 minJ. RichardsonNew
Centers
C. Onyejiaka6 minT. St. LouisNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
BAYALA
Scoring
80.4 #59Points per game91.2 #1
1.16 #51Points per possession1.22 #5
69.3 #161Pace (possessions)74.7 #7
Shooting
53.4 #84Effective FG%55.2 #34
33.9 #1793-point %35.8 #66
39.6 #1813-point attempt rate54.3 #1
34.1 #202Free throw rate36.0 #150
Possessions
16.2 #153Turnover rate13.1 #10
36.9 #18Offensive rebound rate32.4 #111
14.8 #96Assists per game16.3 #39
Defense
76.9 #238Points allowed82.7 #343
1.11 #248Points allowed per possession1.11 #232
52.4 #237Opponent effective FG%49.2 #73
34.8 #240Opponent 3-point %33.8 #170
15.9 #226Turnovers forced12.8 #361
68.7 #219Defensive rebound rate67.2 #295
6.3 #198Steals per game6.4 #186
3.9 #85Blocks per game5.0 #17
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Baylor

16-17 in 2025-26 overall · 6-13 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Oklahoma69–82
  • Wvs Minnesota67–48
  • Lvs Arizona St79–83
  • Wvs Utah101–75
  • L@ Houston64–77

A week or more of rest.

Alabama

25-10 in 2025-26 overall · 13-6 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Michigan77–90
  • Wvs Texas Tech90–65
  • Wvs Hofstra90–70
  • Lvs Ole Miss79–80
  • Wvs Auburn96–84

A week or more of rest.