Fresno State Bulldogs at San José State Spartans: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 18, 9:00 PM ETProvident Credit Union Event Center · at San José St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Fresno St and San José St
FRES	This season	SJSU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SJSU 76–72 · win probability SJSU 63%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 148.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

FRES 4, SJSU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

FRESBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: FRES 50.6 and allows 51.5; SJSU 49.7 and allows 57.1

SJSUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: FRES 18.1%, SJSU 15.1%. Forced: FRES 18.2%, SJSU 17.4%

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: FRES plays 69.3 a game (156th fastest), SJSU 66.0 (315th). Faster games mean more points

FRESSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: FRES 33.8, SJSU 33.4. Allowed: FRES 28.6, SJSU 35.4

FRESSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: FRES 27.9%, SJSU 29.3%. Defensive: FRES 69.4%, SJSU 63.5%

SJSUSmall

Home court

SJSU at home. This season: SJSU 0-0 at home, FRES 0-0 away

FRESSmall

Three-pointers

FRES hits 32.1% and allows 30.7%; SJSU hits 35.3% and allows 36.0%. Threes are 40.9% and 38.3% of their shots

SJSUSmall

SJSU offense vs FRES defense

Offense 141st of 366 against a defense 190th, on the model’s ratings

SJSUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: FRES 0%, SJSU 24%. Transfers in: FRES 5, SJSU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

FRES offense vs SJSU defense

Offense 176th of 366 against a defense 151st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

FRES has played the 103rd-hardest schedule, SJSU the 85th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SJSU -3.7	—
Total	—	148.0	—
Projected score	—	FRES 72.1 · SJSU 75.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SJSU -2.1	—
1H total	69.2	—
1H projected score	FRES 33.6 · SJSU 35.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FRES WLWLW	21-10	68%	7-5	—
SJSU LLLWW	16-16	50%	6-9	—

Venue/role: FRES away; SJSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
FRES UUUUU	12-19	39%	12-19
SJSU OUOOO	21-11	66%	8-24

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FRES	2-8 20%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
SJSU	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	9-1 90%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Fresno St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 20	vs ALST	No recent meeting
Nov 27	vs USA	No recent meeting
Nov 29	vs SDST	No recent meeting

San José St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	vs LUC	W63–51WU
Nov 28	@ UVU	No recent meeting
Dec 5	vs SEA	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 11 since 2021-22

FRES 8–3 SJSUFRES leads · 11 games since 2021-22 · FRES has won the last 2 meetings · FRES 8-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 3, 2025-26	SJSU 68 @ FRES 82	FRES -7.5	FRES W
Jan 6, 2025-26	FRES 70 @ SJSU 55	SJSU +1.5	FRES W
Mar 8, 2024-25	FRES 68 @ SJSU 92	SJSU -6.5	SJSU W
Feb 4, 2024-25	SJSU 94 @ FRES 91	FRES +3.5	FRES W
Feb 6, 2023-24	FRES 69 @ SJSU 57	SJSU -2.5	FRES W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Fresno St

31 games played

Straight up

12-19

39% wins

Against the spread

21-10

68% covers · avg +2.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-19

39% overs · avg −4.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-1939%

L W L W W W W L L L L L L W L W W L L W W L L W L L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

21-1068%

L W L W W W W L L W L W W W L W W W L W W W W W L W W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

12-1939%

U O O U O O U U U O U U U U U O U O U U O U O O O O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsUPST	L 66-67	-9.5	L −10.5	164.5	U 133
Nov 8	vsLBSU	W 82-62	-6.5	W +13.5	142.5	O 144
Nov 12	vsUCSD	L 73-78	-1.5	L −6.5	148.5	O 151
Nov 15	vsUVU	W 75-74	+4.5	W +5.5	156.5	U 149
Nov 18	vsSFA	W 80-78	+2.5	W +4.5	146.5	O 158
Nov 21	vsNOLA	W 85-76	-6.5	W +2.5	154.5	O 161
Nov 26	vsPEPP	W 76-53	-2.5	W +20.5	150.5	U 129
Nov 30	vsCSUB	L 71-76	-10.5	L −15.5	150.5	U 147
Dec 6	@ARK	L 58-82	+19.5	L −4.5	161.5	U 140
Dec 10	@CSUN	L 87-89	+3.5	W +1.5	161.5	O 176
Dec 20	@UNLV	L 72-84	+8.5	L −3.5	159.5	U 156
Dec 30	vsUSU	L 63-72	+14.5	W +5.5	154.5	U 135
Jan 3	vsNEV	L 65-66	+4.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 131
Jan 6	@SJSU	W 70-55	-1.5	W +13.5	149.5	U 125
Jan 10	@SDSU	L 52-71	+14.5	L −4.5	146.5	U 123
Jan 13	vsCSU	W 79-69	+3.5	W +13.5	139.5	O 148
Jan 17	vsWYO	W 63-60	+3.5	W +6.5	145.5	U 123
Jan 21	@UNM	L 74-83	+15.5	W +6.5	151.5	O 157
Jan 24	vsGCU	L 57-68	+4.5	L −6.5	145.5	U 125
Jan 31	@AF	W 79-62	-9.5	W +7.5	141.5	U 141
Feb 3	vsUNLV	W 98-96	+1.5	W +3.5	153.5	O 194
Feb 7	@NEV	L 59-69	+11.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 128
Feb 10	@USU	L 78-91	+21.5	W +8.5	152.5	O 169
Feb 14	vsAF	W 93-63	-14.5	W +15.5	142.5	O 156
Feb 17	@WYO	L 82-92	+9.5	L −0.5	148.5	O 174
Feb 21	vsUNM	L 78-80	+9.5	W +7.5	156.5	O 158
Feb 24	@CSU	L 70-74	+8.5	W +4.5	149.5	U 144
Feb 28	vsBOIS	L 53-69	+7.5	L −8.5	149.5	U 122
Mar 3	vsSJSU	W 82-68	-7.5	W +6.5	151.5	U 150
Mar 7	@GCU	L 60-85	+12.5	L −12.5	149.5	U 145
Mar 11	vsCSU	L 63-67	+7.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UPST

L 66-67

−10.5

LBSU

W 82-62

+13.5

UCSD

L 73-78

−6.5

UVU

W 75-74

+5.5

SFA

W 80-78

+4.5

NOLA

W 85-76

+2.5

PEPP

W 76-53

+20.5

CSUB

L 71-76

−15.5

ARK

L 58-82

−4.5

CSUN

L 87-89

+1.5

UNLV

L 72-84

−3.5

USU

L 63-72

+5.5

NEV

L 65-66

+3.5

SJSU

W 70-55

+13.5

SDSU

L 52-71

−4.5

CSU

W 79-69

+13.5

WYO

W 63-60

+6.5

UNM

L 74-83

+6.5

GCU

L 57-68

−6.5

W 79-62

+7.5

UNLV

W 98-96

+3.5

NEV

L 59-69

+1.5

USU

L 78-91

+8.5

W 93-63

+15.5

WYO

L 82-92

−0.5

UNM

L 78-80

+7.5

CSU

L 70-74

+4.5

BOIS

L 53-69

−8.5

SJSU

W 82-68

+6.5

GCU

L 60-85

−12.5

CSU

L 63-67

+3.5

covered 21didn’t cover 10avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UPST

L 66-67

−31.5

LBSU

W 82-62

+1.5

UCSD

L 73-78

+2.5

UVU

W 75-74

−7.5

SFA

W 80-78

+11.5

NOLA

W 85-76

+6.5

PEPP

W 76-53

−21.5

CSUB

L 71-76

−3.5

ARK

L 58-82

−21.5

CSUN

L 87-89

+14.5

UNLV

L 72-84

−3.5

USU

L 63-72

−19.5

NEV

L 65-66

−15.5

SJSU

W 70-55

−24.5

SDSU

L 52-71

−23.5

CSU

W 79-69

+8.5

WYO

W 63-60

−22.5

UNM

L 74-83

+5.5

GCU

L 57-68

−20.5

W 79-62

−0.5

UNLV

W 98-96

+40.5

NEV

L 59-69

−21.5

USU

L 78-91

+16.5

W 93-63

+13.5

WYO

L 82-92

+25.5

UNM

L 78-80

+1.5

CSU

L 70-74

−5.5

BOIS

L 53-69

−27.5

SJSU

W 82-68

−1.5

GCU

L 60-85

−4.5

CSU

L 63-67

−16.5

over 12under 19avg −4.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

San José St

32 games played

Straight up

8-24

25% wins

Against the spread

16-16

50% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

21-11

66% overs · avg +5.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2425%

L L L W L W L W W L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L W L W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1650%

W L W W L W L W L W L L W L L W L L W L W W W L W W L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

21-1166%

O O U U U U U O O O O O O U U O U O U O O U O O O O O O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UTAH	L 75-84	+11.5	W +2.5	146.5	O 159
Nov 8	@UCSB	L 74-85	+9.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 159
Nov 13	@MSU	L 60-79	+24.5	W +5.5	143.5	U 139
Nov 21	vsSOU	W 80-66	-5.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 146
Nov 25	vsTLSA	L 51-81	+5.5	L −24.5	149.5	U 132
Nov 26	vsLUC	W 63-51	-1.5	W +10.5	136.5	U 114
Nov 30	vsUCI	L 63-72	+3.5	L −5.5	139.5	U 135
Dec 5	vsUSD	W 86-69	-6.5	W +10.5	144.5	O 155
Dec 9	vsLBSU	W 89-83	-7.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 172
Dec 13	vsSTAN	L 82-86	+8.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 168
Dec 20	@UNM	L 65-88	+16.5	L −6.5	152.5	O 153
Dec 30	vsSDSU	L 68-81	+11.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 149
Jan 3	@USU	L 78-96	+22.5	W +4.5	151.5	O 174
Jan 6	vsFRES	L 55-70	+1.5	L −13.5	149.5	U 125
Jan 10	@GCU	L 58-76	+16.5	L −1.5	141.5	U 134
Jan 13	vsAF	W 70-62	-5.5	W +2.5	128.5	O 132
Jan 17	vsUNLV	L 62-76	+7.5	L −6.5	146.5	U 138
Jan 20	@NEV	L 54-87	+16.5	L −16.5	137.5	O 141
Jan 24	@WYO	L 62-66	+13.5	W +9.5	141.5	U 128
Jan 27	vsBOIS	L 58-89	+12.5	L −18.5	141.5	O 147
Jan 31	vsUNM	L 80-90	+15.5	W +5.5	148.5	O 170
Feb 7	@CSU	L 57-65	+15.5	W +7.5	138.5	U 122
Feb 10	@UNLV	L 75-82	+12.5	W +5.5	149.5	O 157
Feb 14	vsGCU	L 79-94	+11.5	L −3.5	139.5	O 173
Feb 17	vsNEV	W 87-71	+10.5	W +26.5	141.5	O 158
Feb 21	@BOIS	L 69-84	+18.5	W +3.5	146.5	O 153
Feb 24	@AF	W 86-80	-6.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 166
Feb 28	vsCSU	L 73-85	+4.5	L −7.5	151.5	O 158
Mar 3	@FRES	L 68-82	+7.5	L −6.5	151.5	U 150
Mar 7	vsWYO	L 78-88	+6.5	L −3.5	148.5	O 166
Mar 11	vsBOIS	W 84-74	+14.5	W +24.5	146.5	O 158
Mar 12	vsUNM	L 77-93	+16.5	W +0.5	154.5	O 170

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTAH

L 75-84

+2.5

UCSB

L 74-85

−1.5

MSU

L 60-79

+5.5

SOU

W 80-66

+8.5

TLSA

L 51-81

−24.5

LUC

W 63-51

+10.5

UCI

L 63-72

−5.5

USD

W 86-69

+10.5

LBSU

W 89-83

−1.5

STAN

L 82-86

+4.5

UNM

L 65-88

−6.5

SDSU

L 68-81

−1.5

USU

L 78-96

+4.5

FRES

L 55-70

−13.5

GCU

L 58-76

−1.5

W 70-62

+2.5

UNLV

L 62-76

−6.5

NEV

L 54-87

−16.5

WYO

L 62-66

+9.5

BOIS

L 58-89

−18.5

UNM

L 80-90

+5.5

CSU

L 57-65

+7.5

UNLV

L 75-82

+5.5

GCU

L 79-94

−3.5

NEV

W 87-71

+26.5

BOIS

L 69-84

+3.5

W 86-80

−0.5

CSU

L 73-85

−7.5

FRES

L 68-82

−6.5

WYO

L 78-88

−3.5

BOIS

W 84-74

+24.5

UNM

L 77-93

+0.5

covered 16didn’t cover 16avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTAH

L 75-84

+12.5

UCSB

L 74-85

+12.5

MSU

L 60-79

−4.5

SOU

W 80-66

−4.5

TLSA

L 51-81

−17.5

LUC

W 63-51

−22.5

UCI

L 63-72

−4.5

USD

W 86-69

+10.5

LBSU

W 89-83

+30.5

STAN

L 82-86

+22.5

UNM

L 65-88

+0.5

SDSU

L 68-81

+7.5

USU

L 78-96

+22.5

FRES

L 55-70

−24.5

GCU

L 58-76

−7.5

W 70-62

+3.5

UNLV

L 62-76

−8.5

NEV

L 54-87

+3.5

WYO

L 62-66

−13.5

BOIS

L 58-89

+5.5

UNM

L 80-90

+21.5

CSU

L 57-65

−16.5

UNLV

L 75-82

+7.5

GCU

L 79-94

+33.5

NEV

W 87-71

+16.5

BOIS

L 69-84

+6.5

W 86-80

+20.5

CSU

L 73-85

+6.5

FRES

L 68-82

−1.5

WYO

L 78-88

+17.5

BOIS

W 84-74

+11.5

UNM

L 77-93

+15.5

over 21under 11avg +5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Fresno St 0, San José St 0, even 5

Fresno StBetterSan José St

G D. Lungu TR13.2 pts · 5.4 reb · 3 ast Not ranked

No call

G P. Goodarzi8.2 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 35

G R. Candelino TR11.2 pts · 5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 76

No call

G J. Hannah7.5 pts · 1 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked

G B. Amuneke TR2.1 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.3 ast Score 28

No call

F Z. Eddine Bedri TR12.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 2.2 ast Not ranked

F B. Henige TR4.9 pts · 5.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 38

No call

F R. Vaihola TR5 pts · 7.6 reb · 1.4 ast Not ranked

C B. Fall TR0.6 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

No call

F M. Cook TR7.5 pts · 4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 61

Fresno StBetterSan José St

FRES offense176th of 366 · -5.4

Even

SJSU defense151st of 366 · -3.3

FRES defense190th of 366 · -4.4

Even

SJSU offense141st of 366 · -4.3

Backcourt+1.3 · 3 players

FRESBig

Backcourt-1.8 · 2 players

Frontcourt-0.8 · 2 players

SJSUBig

Frontcourt+2.3 · 3 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench+1.4 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestFRES betterSJSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Fresno St

Guards

D. Lungu27 min · TRR. Candelino25 min · TRB. Amuneke8 min · TRN. ZulemieNewK. PerryNewQ. RhymesNew

Forwards

B. Henige20 min · TRR. ParsleyNewY. Kesse-BedaNewA. GrangerNewM. VuckovicNewC. SchroederNew

Centers

B. Fall5 min · TR

San José St

Guards

P. Goodarzi26 minJ. Hannah22 minM. Mason20 min · TRJ. Chammaa17 min · TRR. GreenNewC. KruegerNew

Forwards

Z. Eddine Bedri24 min · TRR. Vaihola21 min · TRM. Cook21 min · TRK. Martin8 min · TRL. HowardNew

Centers

M. Dau NyangolNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

FRES72.3 #233

SJSU70.8 #269

Points per possession

FRES1.04 #266

SJSU1.07 #203

Pace (possessions)

FRES69.3 #156

SJSU66.0 #315

Shooting

Effective FG%

FRES50.6 #206

SJSU49.7 #255

3-point %

FRES32.1 #274

SJSU35.3 #97

3-point attempt rate

FRES40.9 #146

SJSU38.3 #204

Free throw rate

FRES33.8 #218

SJSU33.4 #225

Possessions

Turnover rate

FRES18.1 #277

SJSU15.1 #77

Offensive rebound rate

FRES27.9 #272

SJSU29.3 #225

Assists per game

FRES12.6 #247

SJSU10.3 #353

Defense

Points allowed

FRES73.5 #142

SJSU79.2 #305

Points allowed per possession

FRES1.06 #110

SJSU1.20 #359

Opponent effective FG%

FRES51.5 #184

SJSU57.1 #359

Opponent 3-point %

FRES30.7 #30

SJSU36.0 #305

Turnovers forced

FRES18.2 #88

SJSU17.4 #123

Defensive rebound rate

FRES69.4 #183

SJSU63.5 #354

Steals per game

FRES6.7 #154

SJSU5.8 #259

Blocks per game

FRES2.2 #331

SJSU2.2 #333

FRES		SJSU
Scoring
72.3 #233	Points per game	70.8 #269
1.04 #266	Points per possession	1.07 #203
69.3 #156	Pace (possessions)	66.0 #315
Shooting
50.6 #206	Effective FG%	49.7 #255
32.1 #274	3-point %	35.3 #97
40.9 #146	3-point attempt rate	38.3 #204
33.8 #218	Free throw rate	33.4 #225
Possessions
18.1 #277	Turnover rate	15.1 #77
27.9 #272	Offensive rebound rate	29.3 #225
12.6 #247	Assists per game	10.3 #353
Defense
73.5 #142	Points allowed	79.2 #305
1.06 #110	Points allowed per possession	1.20 #359
51.5 #184	Opponent effective FG%	57.1 #359
30.7 #30	Opponent 3-point %	36.0 #305
18.2 #88	Turnovers forced	17.4 #123
69.4 #183	Defensive rebound rate	63.5 #354
6.7 #154	Steals per game	5.8 #259
2.2 #331	Blocks per game	2.2 #333

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Fresno St

12-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-14 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Colorado St63–67
L@ Grand Canyon60–85
Wvs San José St82–68
Lvs Boise St53–69
L@ Colorado St70–74

A week or more of rest.

San José St

8-24 in 2025-26 overall · 4-18 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs New Mexico77–93
Wvs Boise St84–74
Lvs Wyoming78–88
L@ Fresno St68–82
Lvs Colorado St73–85

A week or more of rest.

Fresno State Bulldogs at San José State Spartans

What could decide it

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Fresno St

San José St

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Fresno St

San José St