1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 20
  3. ALST @ FRES
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 20

Alabama State Hornets at Fresno State Bulldogs

Save Mart Center · at Fresno St
#302ALSTAlabama St
@
#174FRESFresno St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
ALSTThis seasonFRES
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FRES 81–68 · win probability FRES 87%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 149.4
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: FRES has more of the edges

ALST 2, FRES 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
ALST has played the 333rd-hardest schedule, FRES the 103rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
FRESBig
FRES offense vs ALST defense
Offense 176th of 366 against a defense 330th, on the model’s ratings
FRESBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: ALST 34.9, FRES 33.8. Allowed: ALST 42.3, FRES 28.6
FRESSmall
Three-pointers
ALST hits 31.8% and allows 34.2%; FRES hits 32.1% and allows 30.7%. Threes are 38.5% and 40.9% of their shots
FRESSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: ALST 47.1 and allows 52.2; FRES 50.6 and allows 51.5
FRESSmall
ALST offense vs FRES defense
Offense 269th of 366 against a defense 190th, on the model’s ratings
ALSTSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ALST 32%, FRES 0%. Transfers in: ALST 3, FRES 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
FRESSmall
Home court
FRES at home. This season: FRES 0-0 at home, ALST 0-0 away
ALSTSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ALST 31.9%, FRES 27.9%. Defensive: ALST 68.5%, FRES 69.4%
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: ALST plays 71.3 a game (59th fastest), FRES 69.3 (156th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ALST 18.3%, FRES 18.1%. Forced: ALST 18.7%, FRES 18.2%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—FRES -12.9—
Total—149.4—
Projected score—ALST 68.2 · FRES 81.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadFRES -7.6—
1H total69.9—
1H projected scoreALST 31.1 · FRES 38.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Fresno St has the better starters

Position by position: Alabama St 0, Fresno St 2, even 3
Alabama StBetterFresno St
G M. James TR21 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.7 ast Score 77
No call
G D. Lungu TR13.2 pts · 5.4 reb · 3 ast Not ranked
G A. Brown13.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 46
FRESSmall
G R. Candelino TR11.2 pts · 5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 76
G T. Miller7 pts · 1 reb · 3 ast Not ranked
No call
G B. Amuneke TR2.1 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.3 ast Score 28
F J. Walker4.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 19
FRESSmall
F B. Henige TR4.9 pts · 5.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 38
F J. Scott TR3.7 pts · 3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 33
No call
C B. Fall TR0.6 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
Alabama StBetterFresno St
ALST offense269th of 366 · -8.2
FRESSmall
FRES defense190th of 366 · -4.4
ALST defense330th of 366 · -8.6
FRESBig
FRES offense176th of 366 · -5.4
Backcourt-1.0 · 3 players
FRESSmall
Backcourt+1.3 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.8 · 2 players
FRESSmall
Frontcourt-0.8 · 2 players
Bench-0.0 · 1 player
No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestALST betterFRES betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Alabama St
Guards
M. James37 min · TRA. Brown26 minT. Miller22 minD. BondsNewP. McMillanNewJ. RogersNew
Forwards
J. Walker16 minJ. Scott12 min · TRI. Barganier1 min · TRP. MensahNewM. DixonNewT. HamptonNew
Fresno St
Guards
D. Lungu27 min · TRR. Candelino25 min · TRB. Amuneke8 min · TRN. ZulemieNewK. PerryNewQ. RhymesNew
Forwards
B. Henige20 min · TRR. ParsleyNewY. Kesse-BedaNewA. GrangerNewM. VuckovicNewC. SchroederNew
Centers
B. Fall5 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ALSTFRES
Scoring
71.5 #260Points per game72.3 #233
1.01 #318Points per possession1.04 #266
71.3 #59Pace (possessions)69.3 #156
Shooting
47.1 #335Effective FG%50.6 #206
31.8 #2883-point %32.1 #274
38.5 #2003-point attempt rate40.9 #146
34.9 #185Free throw rate33.8 #218
Possessions
18.3 #289Turnover rate18.1 #277
31.9 #128Offensive rebound rate27.9 #272
11.7 #303Assists per game12.6 #247
Defense
77.6 #256Points allowed73.5 #142
1.09 #185Points allowed per possession1.06 #110
52.2 #222Opponent effective FG%51.5 #184
34.2 #194Opponent 3-point %30.7 #30
18.7 #63Turnovers forced18.2 #88
68.5 #230Defensive rebound rate69.4 #183
7.9 #50Steals per game6.7 #154
3.8 #102Blocks per game2.2 #331
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Alabama St

9-22 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Alcorn St65–77
  • Lvs Grambling63–65
  • Lvs Southern64–71
  • W@ Alabama A&M89–88
  • L@ Florida A&M63–76

A week or more of rest.

Fresno St

12-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-14 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Colorado St63–67
  • L@ Grand Canyon60–85
  • Wvs San José St82–68
  • Lvs Boise St53–69
  • L@ Colorado St70–74

A week or more of rest.