1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 23
  3. ALST @ CAL
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 23

Alabama State Hornets at California Golden Bears

Haas Pavilion · at California
#302ALSTAlabama St
@
#92CALCalifornia
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
ALSTThis seasonCAL
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CAL 87–65 · win probability CAL 97%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 152.0
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CAL has more of the edges

ALST 1, CAL 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
ALST has played the 333rd-hardest schedule, CAL the 77th. A record against a soft schedule means less
CALBig
CAL offense vs ALST defense
Offense 84th of 366 against a defense 330th, on the model’s ratings
CALBig
Three-pointers
ALST hits 31.8% and allows 34.2%; CAL hits 36.9% and allows 31.0%. Threes are 38.5% and 43.1% of their shots
CALBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: ALST 47.1 and allows 52.2; CAL 52.6 and allows 49.8
CALBig
ALST offense vs CAL defense
Offense 269th of 366 against a defense 100th, on the model’s ratings
CALSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: ALST 34.9, CAL 36.2. Allowed: ALST 42.3, CAL 36.3
ALSTSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ALST 31.9%, CAL 26.0%. Defensive: ALST 68.5%, CAL 69.5%
CALSmall
Home court
CAL at home. This season: CAL 0-0 at home, ALST 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: ALST plays 71.3 a game (59th fastest), CAL 69.8 (126th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ALST 18.3%, CAL 15.1%. Forced: ALST 18.7%, CAL 16.1%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ALST 32%, CAL 29%. Transfers in: ALST 3, CAL 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—CAL -21.4—
Total—152.0—
Projected score—ALST 65.3 · CAL 86.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadCAL -12.6—
1H total71.1—
1H projected scoreALST 29.2 · CAL 41.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

California has the better starters

Position by position: Alabama St 0, California 3, even 2
Alabama StBetterCalifornia
G M. James TR21 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.7 ast Score 77
Even
G M. Cooper TR13.8 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 74
G A. Brown13.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 46
CALSmall
G N. Indrusaitis TR9.1 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.7 ast Score 76
G T. Miller7 pts · 1 reb · 3 ast Not ranked
No call
G J. Ross TR6.7 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.3 ast Score 58
F J. Walker4.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 19
CALSmall
G S. Carr3.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.2 ast Score 46
F J. Scott TR3.7 pts · 3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 33
CALBig
F L. Dort8 pts · 7.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 83
Alabama StBetterCalifornia
ALST offense269th of 366 · -8.2
CALBig
CAL defense100th of 366 · -0.7
ALST defense330th of 366 · -8.6
CALBig
CAL offense84th of 366 · +0.4
Backcourt-1.0 · 3 players
CALSmall
Backcourt+1.0 · 4 players
Frontcourt-1.8 · 2 players
CALBig
Frontcourt+1.7 · 1 player
Bench-0.0 · 1 player
Even
Bench+0.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestALST betterCAL betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Alabama St
Guards
M. James37 min · TRA. Brown26 minT. Miller22 minD. BondsNewP. McMillanNewJ. RogersNew
Forwards
J. Walker16 minJ. Scott12 min · TRI. Barganier1 min · TRP. MensahNewM. DixonNewT. HamptonNew
California
Guards
M. Cooper27 min · TRN. Indrusaitis24 min · TRJ. Ross21 min · TRS. Carr17 minB. Fisher1 minL. Butler1 min
Forwards
L. Dort23 minJ. Wilkins10 min · TRA. Ali7 min · TRS. Yeanay5 minD. Manyiel Dut4 min
Centers
M. Kocanas7 minN. MitrovicNewD. DaubarisNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ALSTCAL
Scoring
71.5 #260Points per game77.7 #99
1.01 #318Points per possession1.11 #118
71.3 #59Pace (possessions)69.8 #126
Shooting
47.1 #335Effective FG%52.6 #119
31.8 #2883-point %36.9 #30
38.5 #2003-point attempt rate43.1 #111
34.9 #185Free throw rate36.2 #146
Possessions
18.3 #289Turnover rate15.1 #74
31.9 #128Offensive rebound rate26.0 #322
11.7 #303Assists per game14.1 #142
Defense
77.6 #256Points allowed73.4 #140
1.09 #185Points allowed per possession1.05 #92
52.2 #222Opponent effective FG%49.8 #91
34.2 #194Opponent 3-point %31.0 #34
18.7 #63Turnovers forced16.1 #216
68.5 #230Defensive rebound rate69.5 #180
7.9 #50Steals per game5.9 #244
3.8 #102Blocks per game3.0 #217
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Alabama St

9-22 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Alcorn St65–77
  • Lvs Grambling63–65
  • Lvs Southern64–71
  • W@ Alabama A&M89–88
  • L@ Florida A&M63–76

A week or more of rest.

California

21-12 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Saint Joseph's75–76
  • Wvs UIC91–73
  • Lvs Florida St89–95
  • L@ Wake Forest73–80
  • W@ Georgia Tech76–65

A week or more of rest.