1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 23
  3. CSU vs ARIZ
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 23

Colorado State Rams vs Arizona Wildcats

Lahaina Civic Center · Neutral site
#87CSUColorado St
vs
#5ARIZArizona AP #5
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
CSUThis seasonARIZ
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ARIZ 84–64 · win probability ARIZ 96%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 148.5
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ARIZ has more of the edges

CSU 1, ARIZ 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: CSU plays 64.4 a game (355th fastest), ARIZ 71.6 (49th). Faster games mean more points
ARIZBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CSU 30.0%, ARIZ 38.4%. Defensive: CSU 70.8%, ARIZ 73.1%
ARIZBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CSU 18.5%, ARIZ 15.1%. Forced: CSU 15.4%, ARIZ 16.2%
ARIZBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: CSU 57.5 and allows 52.9; ARIZ 54.7 and allows 45.3
ARIZSmall
CSU offense vs ARIZ defense
Offense 103rd of 366 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings
ARIZSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: CSU 39.4, ARIZ 43.9. Allowed: CSU 34.2, ARIZ 27.1
Context
Schedule so far
CSU has played the 96th-hardest schedule, ARIZ the 11th. A record against a soft schedule means less
CSUSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CSU 67%, ARIZ 29%. Transfers in: CSU 1, ARIZ 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
ARIZSmall
Three-pointers
CSU hits 38.6% and allows 34.2%; ARIZ hits 36.6% and allows 31.4%. Threes are 49.1% and 26.4% of their shots
ARIZSmall
ARIZ offense vs CSU defense
Offense 4th of 366 against a defense 61st, on the model’s ratings
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—ARIZ -20.1—
Total—148.5—
Projected score—CSU 64.2 · ARIZ 84.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadARIZ -11.8—
1H total69.5—
1H projected scoreCSU 28.8 · ARIZ 40.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Colorado St 1, Arizona 1, even 3
Colorado StBetterArizona
G J. Menard TR12.8 pts · 2.9 reb · 3.8 ast Score 79
CSUSmall
G D. Dixon TR6.5 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.7 ast Score 55
G J. Pascarelli10.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 64
Even
G J. Mandaquit TR5.2 pts · 2.1 reb · 3.2 ast Score 62
G J. Butler9.4 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 67
ARIZSmall
F I. Kharchenkov10.4 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 83
F K. Jorgensen11.5 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 87
Even
F R. Godfrey TR12 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.6 ast Score 96
F C. Booth10.7 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.7 ast Score 90
Even
C M. Krivas10.4 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 95
Colorado StBetterArizona
CSU offense103rd of 366 · -1.2
ARIZSmall
ARIZ defense7th of 366 · +8.8
CSU defense61st of 366 · +1.2
ARIZSmall
ARIZ offense4th of 366 · +11.0
Backcourt+1.8 · 3 players
CSUSmall
Backcourt-0.3 · 2 players
Frontcourt+5.0 · 2 players
ARIZBig
Frontcourt+10.8 · 3 players
Bench-0.7 · 3 players
Even
Bench-0.1 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestCSU betterARIZ betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Colorado St
Guards
J. Menard29 min · TRJ. Pascarelli27 minJ. Butler26 minJ. McIver12 minR. SawyerNewP. DunsonNew
Forwards
K. Jorgensen26 minC. Booth25 minR. Mbemba18 minC. Dortch2 minA. MillerNewD. TedeschiNew
Centers
J. ClarkNew
Arizona
Guards
D. Dixon22 min · TRJ. Mandaquit20 min · TRA. Arnold2 minJ. Cook1 minB. JamesNewC. HolmesNew
Forwards
I. Kharchenkov28 minR. Godfrey25 min · TRE. Otten15 min · TRU. Jarusevicius11 min · TRM. MawutNewE. AiyamenkhueNew
Centers
M. Krivas25 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CSUARIZ
Scoring
74.8 #169Points per game86.2 #11
1.16 #44Points per possession1.21 #11
64.4 #355Pace (possessions)71.6 #49
Shooting
57.5 #12Effective FG%54.7 #45
38.6 #93-point %36.6 #37
49.1 #193-point attempt rate26.4 #363
39.4 #69Free throw rate43.9 #11
Possessions
18.5 #298Turnover rate15.1 #76
30.0 #198Offensive rebound rate38.4 #5
15.6 #62Assists per game16.4 #38
Defense
71.6 #95Points allowed69.4 #53
1.11 #241Points allowed per possession0.97 #6
52.9 #263Opponent effective FG%45.3 #4
34.2 #196Opponent 3-point %31.4 #42
15.4 #255Turnovers forced16.2 #209
70.8 #123Defensive rebound rate73.1 #34
5.2 #320Steals per game7.4 #95
2.1 #338Blocks per game4.2 #55
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Colorado St

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Saint Joseph's64–69
  • Lvs San Diego St62–71
  • Wvs Fresno St67–63
  • Lvs Boise St67–78
  • W@ New Mexico82–74

A week or more of rest.

Arizona

36-3 in 2025-26 overall · 19-2 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Michigan73–91
  • Wvs Purdue79–64
  • Wvs Arkansas109–88
  • Wvs Utah State78–66
  • Wvs Long Island92–58

A week or more of rest.