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  2. Fri, Nov 20
  3. MRSH @ UNC
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 20

Marshall Thundering Herd at North Carolina Tar Heels

Dean E. Smith Center · at North Carolina
#230MRSHMarshall
@
#44UNCNorth Carolina
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MRSHThis seasonUNC
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNC 90–66 · win probability UNC 98%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 155.1
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNC has more of the edges

MRSH 1, UNC 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UNCBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: MRSH 29.2, UNC 37.1. Allowed: MRSH 41.1, UNC 23.8
UNCBig
UNC offense vs MRSH defense
Offense 40th of 366 against a defense 277th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
MRSH has played the 234th-hardest schedule, UNC the 61st. A record against a soft schedule means less
UNCBig
MRSH offense vs UNC defense
Offense 198th of 366 against a defense 52nd, on the model’s ratings
UNCBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MRSH 31.9%, UNC 31.2%. Defensive: MRSH 66.2%, UNC 72.2%
MRSHSmall
Three-pointers
MRSH hits 36.8% and allows 33.6%; UNC hits 34.2% and allows 34.7%. Threes are 44.3% and 42.2% of their shots
UNCSmall
Home court
UNC at home. This season: UNC 0-0 at home, MRSH 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: MRSH plays 70.7 a game (86th fastest), UNC 69.0 (180th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: MRSH 54.8 and allows 50.3; UNC 54.3 and allows 48.4
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MRSH 27%, UNC 20%. Transfers in: MRSH 7, UNC 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MRSH 16.6%, UNC 13.9%. Forced: MRSH 16.2%, UNC 13.6%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UNC -24.1—
Total—155.1—
Projected score—MRSH 65.5 · UNC 89.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUNC -14.2—
1H total72.5—
1H projected scoreMRSH 29.1 · UNC 43.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

North Carolina has the better starters

Position by position: Marshall 0, North Carolina 5, even 0
MarshallBetterNorth Carolina
G N. Otshudi14.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.5 ast Score 45
UNCSmall
G N. Avdalas TR12.1 pts · 3.1 reb · 4.6 ast Score 67
G F. Oshodi TR8.6 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 47
UNCBig
G T. Brown TR19.9 pts · 2.4 reb · 3.8 ast Score 98
G L. Rasmussen TR2.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.6 ast Score 15
UNCBig
G A. Brizzi TR14.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65
G D. Johnson TR2.5 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.2 ast Score 17
UNCBig
F J. Stevenson8.1 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 65
F E. Harding3.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.5 ast Score 11
UNCBig
C C. Fens TR14.8 pts · 8.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 85
MarshallBetterNorth Carolina
MRSH offense198th of 366 · -6.1
UNCBig
UNC defense52nd of 366 · +1.9
MRSH defense277th of 366 · -7.0
UNCBig
UNC offense40th of 366 · +5.0
Backcourt-4.7 · 4 players
UNCBig
Backcourt+6.0 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.5 · 1 player
UNCBig
Frontcourt+3.9 · 2 players
Bench-1.4 · 5 players
UNCSmall
Bench+0.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMRSH betterUNC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Marshall
Guards
N. Otshudi32 minF. Oshodi20 min · TRL. Rasmussen15 min · TRD. Johnson15 min · TRB. Slay8 minE. Manyuon2 min · TR
Forwards
E. Harding14 minC. Langdon3 min · TRV. Kuridza2 min · TRB. DjigoNew
Centers
K. Maker6 min · TR
North Carolina
Guards
N. Avdalas32 min · TRT. Brown32 min · TRA. Brizzi30 min · TRM. Able22 min · TRJ. Young7 minI. Denis3 min
Forwards
J. Stevenson26 minJ. Holbrook2 minA. SamodurovNewM. AdamsNew
Centers
C. Fens26 min · TRC. BennermanNewS. KeitaNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MRSHUNC
Scoring
80.5 #56Points per game79.7 #73
1.14 #71Points per possession1.16 #50
70.7 #86Pace (possessions)69.0 #180
Shooting
54.8 #42Effective FG%54.3 #57
36.8 #343-point %34.2 #159
44.3 #823-point attempt rate42.2 #132
29.2 #328Free throw rate37.1 #127
Possessions
16.6 #172Turnover rate13.9 #20
31.9 #127Offensive rebound rate31.2 #159
16.2 #43Assists per game16.0 #47
Defense
78.9 #292Points allowed71.6 #97
1.11 #253Points allowed per possession1.04 #65
50.3 #118Opponent effective FG%48.4 #44
33.6 #162Opponent 3-point %34.7 #234
16.2 #206Turnovers forced13.6 #344
66.2 #316Defensive rebound rate72.2 #59
6.1 #225Steals per game5.4 #308
4.8 #23Blocks per game3.4 #167
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Marshall

18-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs GA Southern78–82
  • Lvs GA Southern82–99
  • Wvs Old Dominion97–88
  • L@ Coastal75–79
  • W@ App State94–93

A week or more of rest.

North Carolina

24-9 in 2025-26 overall · 12-7 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs VCU78–82
  • Lvs Clemson79–80
  • L@ Duke61–76
  • Wvs Clemson67–63
  • Wvs Virginia Tech89–82

A week or more of rest.