1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 23
  3. MONM @ UNC
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 23

Monmouth Hawks at North Carolina Tar Heels

Dean E. Smith Center · at North Carolina
#155MONMMonmouth
@
#44UNCNorth Carolina
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MONMThis seasonUNC
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNC 85–66 · win probability UNC 95%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 150.8
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNC has more of the edges

MONM 1, UNC 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UNCBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: MONM 49.6 and allows 50.0; UNC 54.3 and allows 48.4
Context
Schedule so far
MONM has played the 190th-hardest schedule, UNC the 61st. A record against a soft schedule means less
UNCBig
MONM offense vs UNC defense
Offense 173rd of 366 against a defense 52nd, on the model’s ratings
UNCBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MONM 31.2%, UNC 31.2%. Defensive: MONM 67.2%, UNC 72.2%
UNCBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: MONM 32.7, UNC 37.1. Allowed: MONM 32.2, UNC 23.8
UNCSmall
UNC offense vs MONM defense
Offense 40th of 366 against a defense 144th, on the model’s ratings
MONMSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MONM 16.7%, UNC 13.9%. Forced: MONM 19.8%, UNC 13.6%
UNCSmall
Home court
UNC at home. This season: UNC 0-0 at home, MONM 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
MONM hits 34.2% and allows 33.9%; UNC hits 34.2% and allows 34.7%. Threes are 34.4% and 42.2% of their shots
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MONM 37%, UNC 20%. Transfers in: MONM 5, UNC 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: MONM plays 67.9 a game (234th fastest), UNC 69.0 (180th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UNC -19.2—
Total—150.8—
Projected score—MONM 65.8 · UNC 85

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUNC -11.3—
1H total70.5—
1H projected scoreMONM 29.6 · UNC 40.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

North Carolina has the better starters

Position by position: Monmouth 0, North Carolina 4, even 1
MonmouthBetterNorth Carolina
G J. Collins6.9 pts · 4.6 reb · 4.4 ast Score 18
UNCBig
G N. Avdalas TR12.1 pts · 3.1 reb · 4.6 ast Score 67
G J. Sanders TR10.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 4.4 ast Score 39
UNCBig
G T. Brown TR19.9 pts · 2.4 reb · 3.8 ast Score 98
G L. Walker TR14.5 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G A. Brizzi TR14.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65
G A. Walker TR7.8 pts · 3.7 reb · 3.2 ast Score 47
UNCSmall
F J. Stevenson8.1 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 65
F S. Spartalis10.5 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 54
UNCSmall
C C. Fens TR14.8 pts · 8.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 85
MonmouthBetterNorth Carolina
MONM offense173rd of 366 · -5.3
UNCSmall
UNC defense52nd of 366 · +1.9
MONM defense144th of 366 · -3.1
UNCSmall
UNC offense40th of 366 · +5.0
Backcourt-5.3 · 4 players
UNCBig
Backcourt+6.0 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.1 · 1 player
UNCBig
Frontcourt+3.9 · 2 players
Bench+0.4 · 5 players
Even
Bench+0.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMONM betterUNC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Monmouth
Guards
J. Collins35 minJ. Sanders30 min · TRL. Walker28 min · TRA. Walker28 min · TRM. Durr21 min · TRJ. Dobuol6 min
Forwards
S. Spartalis24 minO. Harvey3 minS. Osei3 min · TRQ. Peters2 minD. PerryNewS. MarjanovicNew
North Carolina
Guards
N. Avdalas32 min · TRT. Brown32 min · TRA. Brizzi30 min · TRM. Able22 min · TRJ. Young7 minI. Denis3 min
Forwards
J. Stevenson26 minJ. Holbrook2 minA. SamodurovNewM. AdamsNew
Centers
C. Fens26 min · TRC. BennermanNewS. KeitaNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MONMUNC
Scoring
72.0 #241Points per game79.7 #73
1.07 #212Points per possession1.16 #50
67.9 #234Pace (possessions)69.0 #180
Shooting
49.6 #259Effective FG%54.3 #57
34.2 #1563-point %34.2 #159
34.4 #2883-point attempt rate42.2 #132
32.7 #244Free throw rate37.1 #127
Possessions
16.7 #176Turnover rate13.9 #20
31.2 #157Offensive rebound rate31.2 #159
13.7 #167Assists per game16.0 #47
Defense
70.9 #73Points allowed71.6 #97
1.04 #74Points allowed per possession1.04 #65
50.0 #103Opponent effective FG%48.4 #44
33.9 #174Opponent 3-point %34.7 #234
19.8 #28Turnovers forced13.6 #344
67.2 #287Defensive rebound rate72.2 #59
7.6 #69Steals per game5.4 #308
4.2 #57Blocks per game3.4 #167
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Monmouth

18-15 in 2025-26 overall · 13-8 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Hofstra69–75
  • Wvs Campbell74–64
  • Wvs Drexel65–57
  • W@ Northeastern89–83
  • Wvs Elon73–57

A week or more of rest.

North Carolina

24-9 in 2025-26 overall · 12-7 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs VCU78–82
  • Lvs Clemson79–80
  • L@ Duke61–76
  • Wvs Clemson67–63
  • Wvs Virginia Tech89–82

A week or more of rest.