1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 23
  3. VCU vs PROV
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 23

VCU Rams vs Providence Friars

Lahaina Civic Center · Neutral site
#61VCUVCU
vs
#52PROVProvidence
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
VCUThis seasonPROV
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PROV 80–79 · win probability PROV 52%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 159.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: VCU has more of the edges

VCU 4, PROV 0 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
VCUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: VCU 15.1%, PROV 16.7%. Forced: VCU 17.0%, PROV 13.1%
VCUSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: VCU 65%, PROV 13%. Transfers in: VCU 4, PROV 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
VCUSmall
Three-pointers
VCU hits 36.3% and allows 33.0%; PROV hits 36.4% and allows 35.3%. Threes are 43.8% and 40.5% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 72 possessions: VCU plays 69.5 a game (147th fastest), PROV 74.2 (10th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
VCU has played the 88th-hardest schedule, PROV the 31st. A record against a soft schedule means less
VCUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: VCU 42.0, PROV 36.7. Allowed: VCU 32.8, PROV 32.7
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: VCU 53.6 and allows 49.0; PROV 55.0 and allows 51.4
Even
VCU offense vs PROV defense
Offense 65th of 366 against a defense 81st, on the model’s ratings
Even
PROV offense vs VCU defense
Offense 35th of 366 against a defense 50th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: VCU 31.6%, PROV 31.7%. Defensive: VCU 70.0%, PROV 69.2%
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—PROV -0.6—
Total—159.0—
Projected score—VCU 79.2 · PROV 79.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadPROV -0.2—
1H total74.3—
1H projected scoreVCU 37 · PROV 37.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: VCU 0, Providence 0, even 5
VCUBetterProvidence
G N. Ralph-Beyer TR14.3 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 61
Even
G R. Sabol TR18.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66
G B. Jennings8.5 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 79
Even
G M. Mack TR13.6 pts · 3 reb · 4.1 ast Score 80
G N. Lewis8.7 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 79
Even
G D. Vanterpool TR15.2 pts · 6 reb · 2.5 ast Score 89
F T. Alston TR13.3 pts · 8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 85
Even
G M. Byrd TR10.6 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.7 ast Score 90
F L. Djokovic13.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 90
Even
G R. Mela9.9 pts · 5.3 reb · 2 ast Score 81
VCUBetterProvidence
VCU offense65th of 366 · +2.0
Even
PROV defense81st of 366 · +0.3
VCU defense50th of 366 · +2.0
Even
PROV offense35th of 366 · +5.2
Backcourt+2.2 · 3 players
PROVBig
Backcourt+8.2 · 5 players
Frontcourt+5.5 · 2 players
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench+3.2 · 5 players
PROVSmall
Bench+4.2 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestVCU betterPROV betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
VCU
Guards
N. Ralph-Beyer31 min · TRB. Jennings25 minN. Lewis24 minB. Harper18 min · TRT. Ward14 minA. Nowell11 min
Forwards
T. Alston30 min · TRL. Djokovic28 minM. Belle22 minJ. Wyche7 min · TRC. RossNewS. PlisnicNew
Providence
Guards
R. Sabol37 min · TRM. Mack32 min · TRD. Vanterpool32 min · TRM. Byrd28 min · TRR. Mela26 minG. Hightower10 min · TR
Forwards
A. Page23 min · TRJ. Bannarbie16 min · TRJ. BardwellNewC. WaltersNewL. MarangonNew
Centers
S. Aletan26 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
VCUPROV
Scoring
80.8 #50Points per game85.3 #15
1.16 #47Points per possession1.15 #58
69.5 #147Pace (possessions)74.2 #10
Shooting
53.6 #78Effective FG%55.0 #37
36.3 #463-point %36.4 #45
43.8 #913-point attempt rate40.5 #157
42.0 #30Free throw rate36.7 #138
Possessions
15.1 #70Turnover rate16.7 #174
31.6 #139Offensive rebound rate31.7 #135
13.9 #158Assists per game14.0 #146
Defense
71.8 #100Points allowed84.0 #356
1.04 #66Points allowed per possession1.13 #292
49.0 #69Opponent effective FG%51.4 #179
33.0 #125Opponent 3-point %35.3 #265
17.0 #151Turnovers forced13.1 #352
70.0 #162Defensive rebound rate69.2 #195
7.3 #99Steals per game5.4 #313
4.3 #50Blocks per game3.9 #86
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

VCU

28-8 in 2025-26 overall · 18-3 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Illinois55–76
  • Wvs North Carolina82–78
  • Wvs Dayton70–62
  • Wvs Saint Joseph's77–64
  • Wvs Duquesne71–66

A week or more of rest.

Providence

15-18 in 2025-26 overall · 8-14 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ St John's72–85
  • Wvs Butler91–81
  • L@ Georgetown79–80
  • Lvs Marquette56–78
  • W@ Creighton79–76

A week or more of rest.