1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 20
  3. SLU @ SMC
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 20

Saint Louis Billikens at Saint Mary's Gaels

University Credit Union Pavilion · at Saint Mary's
#69SLUSaint Louis
@
#97SMCSaint Mary's
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SLUThis seasonSMC
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SMC 73–73 · win probability SMC 50%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 146.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SMC has more of the edges

SLU 2, SMC 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
SMCBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: SLU 33.7, SMC 35.5. Allowed: SLU 37.1, SMC 25.7
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: SLU plays 72.1 a game (32nd fastest), SMC 66.2 (305th). Faster games mean more points
SMCSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SLU 30.7%, SMC 37.5%. Defensive: SLU 72.8%, SMC 76.1%
SLUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: SLU 59.7 and allows 45.2; SMC 52.8 and allows 46.8
SLUSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SLU 63%, SMC 32%. Transfers in: SLU 2, SMC 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
SMCSmall
Home court
SMC at home. This season: SMC 0-0 at home, SLU 0-0 away
Even
SMC offense vs SLU defense
Offense 129th of 366 against a defense 87th, on the model’s ratings
Even
SLU offense vs SMC defense
Offense 61st of 366 against a defense 44th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SLU 17.2%, SMC 16.9%. Forced: SLU 15.9%, SMC 15.1%
Even
Three-pointers
SLU hits 39.9% and allows 30.3%; SMC hits 38.7% and allows 31.4%. Threes are 45.1% and 36.4% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
SLU has played the 99th-hardest schedule, SMC the 93rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SMC -0.1—
Total—146.8—
Projected score—SLU 73.4 · SMC 73.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSLU -0.1—
1H total68.7—
1H projected scoreSLU 34.4 · SMC 34.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Saint Louis has the better starters

Position by position: Saint Louis 2, Saint Mary's 1, even 2
Saint LouisBetterSaint Mary's
G Q. Jones9 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.9 ast Score 51
SMCSmall
G J. Dent12.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 5.7 ast Score 83
G T. Green11.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.7 ast Score 86
SLUSmall
G J. Dent-Smith TR8.2 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 53
G A. McCottry10.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 2.9 ast Score 84
SLUBig
G R. Hawke2.5 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 21
F I. Sharma9.2 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.4 ast Score 67
Even
F T. Ndong TR4.9 pts · 6.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 73
F A. Michaeli TR7.1 pts · 3.9 reb · 1 ast Score 58
No call
F K. Gad1.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.8 ast Not ranked
Saint LouisBetterSaint Mary's
SLU offense61st of 366 · +2.6
Even
SMC defense44th of 366 · +2.5
SLU defense87th of 366 · -0.1
Even
SMC offense129th of 366 · -3.5
Backcourt+2.6 · 3 players
SLUSmall
Backcourt+0.8 · 3 players
Frontcourt+0.6 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt+0.5 · 2 players
Bench+3.7 · 5 players
SLUBig
Bench-0.6 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestSLU betterSMC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Saint Louis
Guards
Q. Jones27 minT. Green24 minA. McCottry23 minK. Thames17 minC. Hutson4 minI. Holmes2 min
Forwards
I. Sharma22 minA. Michaeli18 min · TRE. Strong17 min · TRJ. Kerr6 minS. PearsonNewB. DiakiteNew
Saint Mary's
Guards
J. Dent37 minJ. Dent-Smith20 min · TRR. Hawke11 minL. Fennell8 min · TRM. Juzenas6 minD. BivinsNew
Forwards
T. Ndong18 min · TRK. Gad10 minV. Zougris9 min · TRJ. LewisNewT. MacLeanNew
Centers
S. Altuntas8 min · TRJ. GardnerNewF. PavelyNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SLUSMC
Scoring
86.4 #7Points per game76.8 #125
1.20 #14Points per possession1.17 #39
72.1 #32Pace (possessions)66.2 #305
Shooting
59.7 #2Effective FG%52.8 #109
39.9 #23-point %38.7 #7
45.1 #643-point attempt rate36.4 #242
33.7 #221Free throw rate35.5 #162
Possessions
17.2 #218Turnover rate16.9 #201
30.7 #173Offensive rebound rate37.5 #12
18.3 #8Assists per game15.1 #82
Defense
71.6 #94Points allowed65.2 #7
0.99 #21Points allowed per possession0.98 #14
45.2 #3Opponent effective FG%46.8 #20
30.3 #14Opponent 3-point %31.4 #40
15.9 #224Turnovers forced15.1 #274
72.8 #43Defensive rebound rate76.1 #4
7.1 #117Steals per game5.5 #302
3.4 #168Blocks per game3.6 #129
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Saint Louis

28-6 in 2025-26 overall · 16-4 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Michigan72–95
  • Wvs Georgia102–77
  • Lvs Dayton69–70
  • Wvs G Washington88–81
  • L@ George Mason57–86

A week or more of rest.

Saint Mary's

26-6 in 2025-26 overall · 16-3 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Texas A&M50–63
  • Lvs Santa Clara71–76
  • Wvs Gonzaga70–59
  • Wvs Santa Clara86–67
  • W@ Washington St83–67

A week or more of rest.