1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Nov 29
  3. USF vs SLU
NCAAB · Sun, Nov 29

South Florida Bulls vs Saint Louis Billikens

Nationwide Arena · Neutral site
#84USFSouth Florida
vs
#69SLUSaint Louis
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
USFThis seasonSLU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SLU 81–79 · win probability SLU 57%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 159.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SLU has more of the edges

USF 2, SLU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
SLUBig
Three-pointers
USF hits 32.5% and allows 34.5%; SLU hits 39.9% and allows 30.3%. Threes are 43.8% and 45.1% of their shots
USFBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: USF 15.1%, SLU 17.2%. Forced: USF 19.1%, SLU 15.9%
SLUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: USF 50.6 and allows 48.8; SLU 59.7 and allows 45.2
SLUSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: USF 14%, SLU 63%. Transfers in: USF 10, SLU 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
USFSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: USF 40.4, SLU 33.7. Allowed: USF 39.0, SLU 37.1
SLUSmall
SLU offense vs USF defense
Offense 61st of 366 against a defense 121st, on the model’s ratings
Even
USF offense vs SLU defense
Offense 59th of 366 against a defense 87th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: USF 38.1%, SLU 30.7%. Defensive: USF 68.1%, SLU 72.8%
Context
Tempo
About 73 possessions: USF plays 74.4 a game (9th fastest), SLU 72.1 (32nd). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
USF has played the 89th-hardest schedule, SLU the 99th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SLU -2.1—
Total—159.6—
Projected score—USF 78.8 · SLU 80.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSLU -1.1—
1H total74.6—
1H projected scoreUSF 36.7 · SLU 37.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: South Florida 1, Saint Louis 1, even 3
South FloridaBetterSaint Louis
G S. Wilson TR17.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 4.5 ast Score 79
USFSmall
G Q. Jones9 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.9 ast Score 51
G A. Dancler TR15.6 pts · 5.3 reb · 2 ast Score 72
Even
G T. Green11.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.7 ast Score 86
G J. Omojafo11 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.7 ast Score 80
Even
G A. McCottry10.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 2.9 ast Score 84
G A. Shoshkikj TR10.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 2.5 ast Score 73
Even
F I. Sharma9.2 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.4 ast Score 67
F R. Goods TR7.8 pts · 5.9 reb · 2 ast Score 41
SLUSmall
F A. Michaeli TR7.1 pts · 3.9 reb · 1 ast Score 58
South FloridaBetterSaint Louis
USF offense59th of 366 · +2.7
Even
SLU defense87th of 366 · -0.1
USF defense121st of 366 · -2.1
SLUSmall
SLU offense61st of 366 · +2.6
Backcourt+4.4 · 4 players
USFSmall
Backcourt+2.6 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.8 · 1 player
SLUSmall
Frontcourt+0.6 · 2 players
Bench-0.3 · 5 players
SLUBig
Bench+3.7 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUSF betterSLU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
South Florida
Guards
S. Wilson37 min · TRA. Dancler34 min · TRJ. Omojafo28 minA. Shoshkikj26 min · TRC. Davis18 min · TRM. James11 min · TR
Forwards
R. Goods25 min · TRG. Johnson23 min · TRJ. Lewis23 min · TRZ. High9 min · TRR. StevensonNewJ. FeldhausNew
Centers
T. Diawara3 min · TR
Saint Louis
Guards
Q. Jones27 minT. Green24 minA. McCottry23 minK. Thames17 minC. Hutson4 minI. Holmes2 min
Forwards
I. Sharma22 minA. Michaeli18 min · TRE. Strong17 min · TRJ. Kerr6 minS. PearsonNewB. DiakiteNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
USFSLU
Scoring
86.8 #6Points per game86.4 #7
1.17 #42Points per possession1.20 #14
74.4 #9Pace (possessions)72.1 #32
Shooting
50.6 #209Effective FG%59.7 #2
32.5 #2553-point %39.9 #2
43.8 #933-point attempt rate45.1 #64
40.4 #55Free throw rate33.7 #221
Possessions
15.1 #73Turnover rate17.2 #218
38.1 #7Offensive rebound rate30.7 #173
16.8 #28Assists per game18.3 #8
Defense
76.5 #230Points allowed71.6 #94
1.03 #54Points allowed per possession0.99 #21
48.8 #58Opponent effective FG%45.2 #3
34.5 #218Opponent 3-point %30.3 #14
19.1 #42Turnovers forced15.9 #224
68.1 #252Defensive rebound rate72.8 #43
9.0 #8Steals per game7.1 #117
4.0 #72Blocks per game3.4 #168
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

South Florida

24-9 in 2025-26 overall · 17-3 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Louisville79–83
  • Wvs Wichita St70–55
  • Wvs Charlotte86–64
  • Wvs Charlotte83–60
  • W@ Memphis96–89

A week or more of rest.

Saint Louis

28-6 in 2025-26 overall · 16-4 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Michigan72–95
  • Wvs Georgia102–77
  • Lvs Dayton69–70
  • Wvs G Washington88–81
  • L@ George Mason57–86

A week or more of rest.