1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Nov 29
  3. TNST @ OKST
NCAAB · Sun, Nov 29

Tennessee State Tigers at Oklahoma State Cowboys

Gallagher-Iba Arena · at Oklahoma St
#245TNSTTennessee St
@
#45OKSTOklahoma St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
TNSTThis seasonOKST
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OKST 92–70 · win probability OKST 97%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 162.2
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: OKST has more of the edges

TNST 2, OKST 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
TNST has played the 345th-hardest schedule, OKST the 60th. A record against a soft schedule means less
OKSTBig
OKST offense vs TNST defense
Offense 23rd of 366 against a defense 290th, on the model’s ratings
OKSTBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: TNST 33.4, OKST 39.4. Allowed: TNST 41.4, OKST 31.4
OKSTSmall
TNST offense vs OKST defense
Offense 207th of 366 against a defense 99th, on the model’s ratings
TNSTSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: TNST 16.7%, OKST 15.7%. Forced: TNST 19.8%, OKST 15.7%
OKSTSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: TNST 10%, OKST 41%. Transfers in: TNST 7, OKST 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
TNSTSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: TNST 34.8%, OKST 30.8%. Defensive: TNST 69.4%, OKST 69.7%
OKSTSmall
Home court
OKST at home. This season: OKST 0-0 at home, TNST 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
TNST hits 33.3% and allows 34.0%; OKST hits 33.9% and allows 36.0%. Threes are 30.7% and 35.5% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 73 possessions: TNST plays 71.1 a game (66th fastest), OKST 74.8 (6th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: TNST 50.0 and allows 51.6; OKST 52.0 and allows 53.1
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—OKST -22.2—
Total—162.2—
Projected score—TNST 70 · OKST 92.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadOKST -13.1—
1H total75.8—
1H projected scoreTNST 31.4 · OKST 44.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Oklahoma St has the better starters

Position by position: Tennessee St 0, Oklahoma St 2, even 3
Tennessee StBetterOklahoma St
G T. Johnson TR15 pts · 2.8 reb · 4.2 ast Score 85
Even
G K. Clary10.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 4.6 ast Score 78
G A. Morris TR11.1 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.7 ast Score 30
OKSTBig
G K. Natt TR11.3 pts · 8.2 reb · 2.5 ast Score 94
G C. Alston TR4.5 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.3 ast Score 42
Even
G J. Walker TR11.2 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 55
F A. Bradshaw TR8.6 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 79
Even
F J. Burks TR13.3 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.7 ast Score 90
F J. Rivera TR3.3 pts · 2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 47
OKSTBig
F P. Fallah14.7 pts · 6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 97
Tennessee StBetterOklahoma St
TNST offense207th of 366 · -6.3
OKSTSmall
OKST defense99th of 366 · -0.7
TNST defense290th of 366 · -7.3
OKSTBig
OKST offense23rd of 366 · +7.5
Backcourt-0.4 · 3 players
OKSTBig
Backcourt+4.0 · 3 players
Frontcourt+1.0 · 2 players
OKSTBig
Frontcourt+7.7 · 2 players
Bench-2.4 · 5 players
OKSTBig
Bench+2.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestTNST betterOKST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Tennessee St
Guards
T. Johnson29 min · TRA. Morris28 min · TRC. Alston11 min · TRD. Howard8 minI. Stewart4 min · TRJ. Jones3 min
Forwards
A. Bradshaw19 min · TRJ. Rivera12 min · TRK. Jones11 minD. LindseyNew
Oklahoma St
Guards
K. Clary28 minK. Natt27 min · TRJ. Walker26 min · TRL. Bogavac24 min · TRR. Crotty10 minJ. MontonatiNew
Forwards
J. Burks28 min · TRP. Fallah26 minA. Grbovic20 min · TRB. Ahmed13 minM. Ragland6 minL. AllmondNew
Centers
J. Halaifonua20 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
TNSTOKST
Scoring
77.9 #96Points per game83.9 #21
1.10 #146Points per possession1.12 #110
71.1 #66Pace (possessions)74.8 #6
Shooting
50.0 #237Effective FG%52.0 #144
33.3 #2113-point %33.9 #176
30.7 #3443-point attempt rate35.5 #260
33.4 #228Free throw rate39.4 #70
Possessions
16.7 #177Turnover rate15.7 #117
34.8 #53Offensive rebound rate30.8 #169
12.7 #237Assists per game14.6 #113
Defense
75.1 #191Points allowed83.2 #349
1.06 #97Points allowed per possession1.12 #265
51.6 #190Opponent effective FG%53.1 #272
34.0 #183Opponent 3-point %36.0 #304
19.8 #26Turnovers forced15.7 #240
69.4 #184Defensive rebound rate69.7 #178
9.0 #10Steals per game7.1 #120
3.8 #99Blocks per game2.7 #285
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Tennessee St

20-10 in 2025-26 overall · 17-5 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Iowa State74–108
  • Wvs Morehead St93–67
  • Wvs UT Martin68–55
  • W@ UT Martin67–42
  • W@ SE Missouri79–71

A week or more of rest.

Oklahoma St

20-15 in 2025-26 overall · 7-13 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Wichita St70–96
  • Wvs Davidson84–80
  • Lvs TCU88–95
  • Wvs Colorado92–83
  • Lvs Houston75–82

A week or more of rest.