1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 27
  3. USA vs FRES
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 27

South Alabama Jaguars vs Fresno State Bulldogs

Convocation Center (LA) · Neutral site
#227USASouth Alabama
vs
#174FRESFresno St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
USAThis seasonFRES
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FRES 75–71 · win probability FRES 65%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 146.5
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: USA has more of the edges

USA 3, FRES 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
USABig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: USA 13.1%, FRES 18.1%. Forced: USA 18.0%, FRES 18.2%
Context
Schedule so far
USA has played the 223rd-hardest schedule, FRES the 103rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
USASmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: USA 52.6 and allows 50.1; FRES 50.6 and allows 51.5
USASmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: USA 38.5, FRES 33.8. Allowed: USA 25.4, FRES 28.6
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: USA plays 67.1 a game (277th fastest), FRES 69.3 (156th). Faster games mean more points
FRESSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: USA 25.0%, FRES 27.9%. Defensive: USA 68.6%, FRES 69.4%
FRESSmall
USA offense vs FRES defense
Offense 242nd of 366 against a defense 190th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: USA 21%, FRES 0%. Transfers in: USA 0, FRES 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
FRES offense vs USA defense
Offense 176th of 366 against a defense 212th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
USA hits 34.5% and allows 33.1%; FRES hits 32.1% and allows 30.7%. Threes are 36.5% and 40.9% of their shots
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—FRES -4.4—
Total—146.5—
Projected score—USA 71.1 · FRES 75.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadFRES -2.5—
1H total68.5—
1H projected scoreUSA 33 · FRES 35.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

South Alabama has the better starters

Position by position: South Alabama 1, Fresno St 0, even 4
South AlabamaBetterFresno St
G A. Goldstein NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
G D. Lungu TR13.2 pts · 5.4 reb · 3 ast Not ranked
G A. Lewis NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
G R. Candelino TR11.2 pts · 5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 76
G J. Langsy NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
G B. Amuneke TR2.1 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.3 ast Score 28
F P. Law13.1 pts · 5.7 reb · 1 ast Score 86
USABig
F B. Henige TR4.9 pts · 5.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 38
F S. Williams6 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.2 ast Score 84
No call
C B. Fall TR0.6 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
South AlabamaBetterFresno St
USA offense242nd of 366 · -7.3
Even
FRES defense190th of 366 · -4.4
USA defense212th of 366 · -5.4
Even
FRES offense176th of 366 · -5.4
BackcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Backcourt+1.3 · 3 players
Frontcourt+3.5 · 2 players
USABig
Frontcourt-0.8 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestUSA betterFRES betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
South Alabama
Guards
A. GoldsteinNewA. LewisNewJ. LangsyNewS. ShoptawNewD. WilliamsNewD. RomanNew
Forwards
P. Law26 minS. Williams15 minL. KunzewitschNewO. KenneyNewR. WilliamsNewD. HueittNew
Fresno St
Guards
D. Lungu27 min · TRR. Candelino25 min · TRB. Amuneke8 min · TRN. ZulemieNewK. PerryNewQ. RhymesNew
Forwards
B. Henige20 min · TRR. ParsleyNewY. Kesse-BedaNewA. GrangerNewM. VuckovicNewC. SchroederNew
Centers
B. Fall5 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
USAFRES
Scoring
73.2 #218Points per game72.3 #233
1.10 #139Points per possession1.04 #266
67.1 #277Pace (possessions)69.3 #156
Shooting
52.6 #120Effective FG%50.6 #206
34.5 #1463-point %32.1 #274
36.5 #2373-point attempt rate40.9 #146
38.5 #89Free throw rate33.8 #218
Possessions
13.1 #8Turnover rate18.1 #277
25.0 #341Offensive rebound rate27.9 #272
11.9 #287Assists per game12.6 #247
Defense
71.3 #85Points allowed73.5 #142
1.06 #100Points allowed per possession1.06 #110
50.1 #105Opponent effective FG%51.5 #184
33.1 #133Opponent 3-point %30.7 #30
18.0 #96Turnovers forced18.2 #88
68.6 #222Defensive rebound rate69.4 #183
7.9 #46Steals per game6.7 #154
2.2 #330Blocks per game2.2 #331
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

South Alabama

19-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Auburn67–78
  • Lvs GA Southern85–94
  • Lvs Southern Miss55–68
  • Wvs UL Monroe89–54
  • Wvs Troy65–54

A week or more of rest.

Fresno St

12-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-14 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Colorado St63–67
  • L@ Grand Canyon60–85
  • Wvs San José St82–68
  • Lvs Boise St53–69
  • L@ Colorado St70–74

A week or more of rest.