1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 27
  3. NAVY @ FAIR
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 27

Navy Midshipmen at Fairfield Stags

Leo D. Mahoney Arena · at Fairfield
#199NAVYNavy
@
#239FAIRFairfield
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NAVYThis seasonFAIR
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FAIR 72–69 · win probability FAIR 57%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 141.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NAVY has more of the edges

NAVY 4, FAIR 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
NAVYBig
Three-pointers
NAVY hits 35.9% and allows 30.0%; FAIR hits 33.2% and allows 34.3%. Threes are 33.1% and 35.4% of their shots
NAVYBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: NAVY 38.8, FAIR 27.7. Allowed: NAVY 26.0, FAIR 30.4
NAVYBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: NAVY 53.1 and allows 48.3; FAIR 48.8 and allows 51.0
NAVYBig
FAIR offense vs NAVY defense
Offense 282nd of 366 against a defense 145th, on the model’s ratings
FAIRSmall
NAVY offense vs FAIR defense
Offense 270th of 366 against a defense 195th, on the model’s ratings
FAIRSmall
Home court
FAIR at home. This season: FAIR 0-0 at home, NAVY 0-0 away
Context
Schedule so far
NAVY has played the 311th-hardest schedule, FAIR the 359th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: NAVY plays 66.0 a game (316th fastest), FAIR 67.3 (263rd). Faster games mean more points
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NAVY 31.9%, FAIR 35.8%. Defensive: NAVY 72.6%, FAIR 70.9%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NAVY 46%, FAIR 53%. Transfers in: NAVY 0, FAIR 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NAVY 16.8%, FAIR 15.4%. Forced: NAVY 18.3%, FAIR 16.8%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—FAIR -2.1—
Total—141.0—
Projected score—NAVY 69.4 · FAIR 71.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadFAIR -1.1—
1H total66.0—
1H projected scoreNAVY 32.4 · FAIR 33.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Navy 1, Fairfield 1, even 3
NavyBetterFairfield
G J. Kim10 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 35
FAIRBig
G D. Wucherpfennig11.8 pts · 8.3 reb · 1.6 ast Score 71
G J. Pennick7.5 pts · 2.1 reb · 1.4 ast Score 12
Even
G T. Williams6.4 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19
G C. Cole6 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.6 ast Score 41
NAVYSmall
G E. Mejia4.9 pts · 2.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 11
G D. Burnett1.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G H. Rawlins3.6 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.1 ast Score 4
G N. Howard1.6 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked
No call
F Q. Martin TR12.1 pts · 7.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 76
NavyBetterFairfield
NAVY offense270th of 366 · -8.2
FAIRSmall
FAIR defense195th of 366 · -4.8
NAVY defense145th of 366 · -3.1
NAVYBig
FAIR offense282nd of 366 · -8.7
Backcourt-5.8 · 5 players
Even
Backcourt-5.9 · 4 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt+1.7 · 1 player
Bench-0.2 · 5 players
NAVYSmall
Bench-2.2 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestNAVY betterFAIR betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Navy
Guards
J. Kim31 minJ. Pennick25 minC. Cole19 minD. Burnett6 minN. Howard3 minJ. Gabbidon1 min
Forwards
C. Jackson2 minJ. Ashley2 minO. Gray2 minT. RajiNewC. PollockNewS. GriffinNew
Centers
C. CraneNew
Fairfield
Guards
D. Wucherpfennig32 minT. Williams20 minE. Mejia19 minH. Rawlins17 minN. Rodriguez7 minJ. Ganton2 min
Forwards
Q. Martin32 min · TRM. Radunovic9 min · TRI. Munkadi9 minP. SmithNewO. SackoNewB. JonesNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NAVYFAIR
Scoring
74.1 #194Points per game72.9 #226
1.12 #97Points per possession1.09 #166
66.0 #316Pace (possessions)67.3 #263
Shooting
53.1 #100Effective FG%48.8 #294
35.9 #643-point %33.2 #216
33.1 #3143-point attempt rate35.4 #262
38.8 #82Free throw rate27.7 #346
Possessions
16.8 #190Turnover rate15.4 #96
31.9 #126Offensive rebound rate35.8 #29
15.8 #52Assists per game12.1 #277
Defense
65.6 #10Points allowed71.9 #104
1.00 #23Points allowed per possession1.06 #118
48.3 #42Opponent effective FG%51.0 #159
30.0 #7Opponent 3-point %34.3 #200
18.3 #84Turnovers forced16.8 #169
72.6 #49Defensive rebound rate70.9 #116
7.5 #84Steals per game6.5 #183
3.3 #185Blocks per game3.5 #145
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Navy

24-8 in 2025-26 overall · 18-2 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Wake Forest72–82
  • Lvs Boston U72–73
  • Wvs Bucknell74–69
  • Wvs Colgate85–69
  • W@ Loyola MD78–51

A week or more of rest.

Fairfield

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 13-10 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Siena61–76
  • Wvs Saint Peter's74–55
  • Wvs Manhattan71–60
  • Lvs Mount St Marys47–69
  • Wvs Siena72–58

A week or more of rest.