1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 28
  3. CCSU vs NAVY
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 28

Central Connecticut Blue Devils vs Navy Midshipmen

Leo D. Mahoney Arena · Neutral site
#337CCSUC Connecticut
vs
#199NAVYNavy
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
CCSUThis seasonNAVY
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NAVY 73–65 · win probability NAVY 75%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 138.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NAVY has more of the edges

CCSU 0, NAVY 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
NAVYBig
CCSU offense vs NAVY defense
Offense 353rd of 366 against a defense 145th, on the model’s ratings
NAVYBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CCSU 27.5%, NAVY 31.9%. Defensive: CCSU 69.6%, NAVY 72.6%
NAVYSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CCSU 16.3%, NAVY 16.8%. Forced: CCSU 14.0%, NAVY 18.3%
NAVYSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: CCSU 31.2, NAVY 38.8. Allowed: CCSU 26.9, NAVY 26.0
NAVYSmall
Three-pointers
CCSU hits 35.8% and allows 33.4%; NAVY hits 35.9% and allows 30.0%. Threes are 34.9% and 33.1% of their shots
NAVYSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: CCSU 51.6 and allows 50.2; NAVY 53.1 and allows 48.3
Context
Schedule so far
CCSU has played the 358th-hardest schedule, NAVY the 311th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
NAVY offense vs CCSU defense
Offense 270th of 366 against a defense 247th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CCSU 55%, NAVY 46%. Transfers in: CCSU 0, NAVY 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Context
Tempo
About 66 possessions: CCSU plays 65.5 a game (329th fastest), NAVY 66.0 (316th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—NAVY -7.7—
Total—138.0—
Projected score—CCSU 65.2 · NAVY 72.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadNAVY -4.5—
1H total64.6—
1H projected scoreCCSU 30.1 · NAVY 34.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Navy has the better starters

Position by position: C Connecticut 0, Navy 2, even 3
C ConnecticutBetterNavy
G J. Jones4.1 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 4
NAVYSmall
G J. Kim10 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 35
G V. Payne6.5 pts · 3.2 reb · 1 ast Score 16
Even
G J. Pennick7.5 pts · 2.1 reb · 1.4 ast Score 12
G E. Parker2 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 0
NAVYBig
G C. Cole6 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.6 ast Score 41
G R. Jones3.8 pts · 0.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 20
No call
G D. Burnett1.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
F D. James3.2 pts · 3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 13
No call
G N. Howard1.6 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked
C ConnecticutBetterNavy
CCSU offense353rd of 366 · -13.2
NAVYBig
NAVY defense145th of 366 · -3.1
CCSU defense247th of 366 · -6.5
Even
NAVY offense270th of 366 · -8.2
Backcourt-10.6 · 4 players
NAVYBig
Backcourt-5.8 · 5 players
Frontcourt-1.2 · 1 player
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench-2.0 · 2 players
NAVYSmall
Bench-0.2 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestCCSU betterNAVY betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
C Connecticut
Guards
J. Jones30 minV. Payne24 minE. Parker14 minR. Jones10 minA. Reynolds10 minR. LaurentNew
Forwards
D. James13 minJ. Mott8 minB. JacksonNewJ. ErvinNewR. TibbyNewC. LangdonNew
Navy
Guards
J. Kim31 minJ. Pennick25 minC. Cole19 minD. Burnett6 minN. Howard3 minJ. Gabbidon1 min
Forwards
C. Jackson2 minJ. Ashley2 minO. Gray2 minT. RajiNewC. PollockNewS. GriffinNew
Centers
C. CraneNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CCSUNAVY
Scoring
70.6 #272Points per game74.1 #194
1.08 #192Points per possession1.12 #97
65.5 #329Pace (possessions)66.0 #316
Shooting
51.6 #165Effective FG%53.1 #100
35.8 #693-point %35.9 #64
34.9 #2783-point attempt rate33.1 #314
31.2 #276Free throw rate38.8 #82
Possessions
16.3 #154Turnover rate16.8 #190
27.5 #281Offensive rebound rate31.9 #126
12.8 #229Assists per game15.8 #52
Defense
72.0 #105Points allowed65.6 #10
1.10 #218Points allowed per possession1.00 #23
50.2 #113Opponent effective FG%48.3 #42
33.4 #146Opponent 3-point %30.0 #7
14.0 #338Turnovers forced18.3 #84
69.6 #179Defensive rebound rate72.6 #49
5.4 #311Steals per game7.5 #84
3.9 #83Blocks per game3.3 #185
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

C Connecticut

16-12 in 2025-26 overall · 12-7 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Wagner60–70
  • Wvs Saint Francis Red Wolves69–64
  • Wvs Mercyhurst80–78
  • L@ Chicago St51–70
  • Wvs Le Moyne78–77

A week or more of rest.

Navy

24-8 in 2025-26 overall · 18-2 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Wake Forest72–82
  • Lvs Boston U72–73
  • Wvs Bucknell74–69
  • Wvs Colgate85–69
  • W@ Loyola MD78–51

A week or more of rest.