1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 27
  3. SOU @ VAN
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 27

Southern Jaguars at Vanderbilt Commodores

Memorial Gymnasium (TN) · at Vanderbilt
#309SOUSouthern
@
#22VANVanderbilt AP #24
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SOUThis seasonVAN
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects VAN 94–61 · win probability VAN 100%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 154.6
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: VAN has more of the edges

SOU 0, VAN 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
VANBig
VAN offense vs SOU defense
Offense 22nd of 366 against a defense 309th, on the model’s ratings
VANBig
SOU offense vs VAN defense
Offense 296th of 366 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
SOU has played the 269th-hardest schedule, VAN the 21st. A record against a soft schedule means less
VANBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: SOU 49.1 and allows 53.2; VAN 55.3 and allows 49.0
VANBig
Three-pointers
SOU hits 34.8% and allows 36.7%; VAN hits 35.6% and allows 32.6%. Threes are 32.0% and 44.2% of their shots
VANSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SOU 16.6%, VAN 13.5%. Forced: SOU 18.6%, VAN 17.7%
VANSmall
Home court
VAN at home. This season: VAN 0-0 at home, SOU 0-0 away
VANSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SOU 2%, VAN 26%. Transfers in: SOU 8, VAN 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 72 possessions: SOU plays 72.3 a game (28th fastest), VAN 70.9 (80th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SOU 31.4%, VAN 31.2%. Defensive: SOU 68.7%, VAN 68.5%
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: SOU 39.8, VAN 38.1. Allowed: SOU 42.9, VAN 39.5
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—VAN -33.2—
Total—154.6—
Projected score—SOU 60.7 · VAN 93.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadVAN -19.6—
1H total72.3—
1H projected scoreSOU 26.3 · VAN 45.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Vanderbilt has the better starters

Position by position: Southern 0, Vanderbilt 5, even 0
SouthernBetterVanderbilt
G J. Page TR12.3 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.5 ast Score 42
VANBig
G T. Tanner19.5 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.1 ast Score 100
G D. Dormu TR5.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 2 ast Score 14
VANBig
G A. Glass TR16.1 pts · 3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 86
G M. Ferguson TR5.2 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 9
VANBig
F S. Williams-Adams TR7 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 55
F R. King TR4.7 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 42
VANBig
F B. Dak TR11.5 pts · 6.5 reb · 1.4 ast Score 90
C I. Olajuwon TR3.7 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.1 ast Score 20
VANBig
C B. Buyuktuncel TR6.5 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 61
SouthernBetterVanderbilt
SOU offense296th of 366 · -9.2
VANBig
VAN defense29th of 366 · +3.7
SOU defense309th of 366 · -8.0
VANBig
VAN offense22nd of 366 · +7.6
Backcourt-5.4 · 3 players
VANBig
Backcourt+10.2 · 2 players
Frontcourt-1.5 · 2 players
VANBig
Frontcourt+3.7 · 3 players
Bench-3.3 · 4 players
VANSmall
Bench-0.4 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestSOU betterVAN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Southern
Guards
J. Page30 min · TRD. Dormu19 min · TRM. Ferguson17 min · TRL. Larvadain11 min · TRS. Van Dorn3 min · TRJ. HunterNew
Forwards
R. King13 min · TRA. HallNew
Centers
I. Olajuwon14 min · TRN. Boyde11 min · TRL. Bell5 min
Vanderbilt
Guards
T. Tanner34 minA. Glass29 min · TRA. BrownNewM. HawkinsNewB. AllenNewC. ByingtonNew
Forwards
S. Williams-Adams27 min · TRB. Dak26 min · TRT. Barrett23 min · TRC. Bing15 minE. MgbakoNewG. NesmithNew
Centers
B. Buyuktuncel24 min · TRJ. Leverett4 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SOUVAN
Scoring
76.2 #136Points per game85.7 #14
1.06 #239Points per possession1.21 #9
72.3 #28Pace (possessions)70.9 #80
Shooting
49.1 #287Effective FG%55.3 #31
34.8 #1293-point %35.6 #86
32.0 #3293-point attempt rate44.2 #85
39.8 #61Free throw rate38.1 #101
Possessions
16.6 #169Turnover rate13.5 #15
31.4 #144Offensive rebound rate31.2 #158
13.9 #156Assists per game16.3 #40
Defense
80.2 #324Points allowed75.0 #187
1.11 #236Points allowed per possession1.06 #99
53.2 #274Opponent effective FG%49.0 #67
36.7 #339Opponent 3-point %32.6 #96
18.6 #67Turnovers forced17.7 #112
68.7 #217Defensive rebound rate68.5 #231
8.3 #26Steals per game7.9 #40
3.8 #97Blocks per game4.5 #36
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Southern

14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 13-8 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Prairie View66–72
  • Wvs Florida A&M73–70
  • Wvs AR-Pine Bluff84–81
  • W@ Alabama A&M88–85
  • W@ Alabama St71–64

A week or more of rest.

Vanderbilt

27-9 in 2025-26 overall · 13-8 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Nebraska72–74
  • Wvs McNeese78–68
  • Lvs Arkansas75–86
  • Wvs Florida91–74
  • Wvs Tennessee75–68

A week or more of rest.