1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 27
  3. HAMP vs UML
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 27

Hampton Pirates vs UMass Lowell River Hawks

Bender Arena · Neutral site
#159HAMPHampton
vs
#307UMLUMass Lowell
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
HAMPThis seasonUML
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HAMP 78–69 · win probability HAMP 80%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 147.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HAMP has more of the edges

HAMP 3, UML 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
HAMPBig
UML offense vs HAMP defense
Offense 286th of 366 against a defense 153rd, on the model’s ratings
HAMPBig
HAMP offense vs UML defense
Offense 186th of 366 against a defense 318th, on the model’s ratings
HAMPBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: HAMP 17.1%, UML 18.0%. Forced: HAMP 17.2%, UML 14.2%
UMLSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: HAMP 39.2, UML 34.9. Allowed: HAMP 46.5, UML 28.3
Context
Schedule so far
HAMP has played the 217th-hardest schedule, UML the 312th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: HAMP plays 66.5 a game (295th fastest), UML 68.9 (189th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Three-pointers
HAMP hits 28.8% and allows 32.1%; UML hits 32.2% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 37.0% and 31.3% of their shots
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: HAMP 45.7 and allows 52.0; UML 49.8 and allows 53.5
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: HAMP 32.9%, UML 32.7%. Defensive: HAMP 70.0%, UML 70.7%
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: HAMP 18%, UML 16%. Transfers in: HAMP 6, UML 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—HAMP -9.7—
Total—147.1—
Projected score—HAMP 78.4 · UML 68.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadHAMP -5.9—
1H total68.8—
1H projected scoreHAMP 37.3 · UML 31.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Hampton has the better starters

Position by position: Hampton 3, UMass Lowell 1, even 1
HamptonBetterUMass Lowell
G J. Mitchell TR14.5 pts · 4.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 56
HAMPBig
G C. Jones TR4.3 pts · 0.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 6
G S. Hubbard TR16.5 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.1 ast Score 70
HAMPSmall
G J. Newton TR7.1 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 55
G A. Davis TR9.3 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 59
No call
G I. Walter1.6 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked
F M. Frazier TR12 pts · 7.1 reb · 0.9 ast Score 77
HAMPBig
F V. Okojie4.3 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.7 ast Score 11
F C. Robinson TR8.2 pts · 4 reb · 1.3 ast Score 25
UMLSmall
F J. Harris TR5.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 59
HamptonBetterUMass Lowell
HAMP offense186th of 366 · -5.7
HAMPBig
UML defense318th of 366 · -8.2
HAMP defense153rd of 366 · -3.4
HAMPBig
UML offense286th of 366 · -8.9
Backcourt+0.1 · 3 players
HAMPBig
Backcourt-3.4 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.1 · 2 players
HAMPSmall
Frontcourt-1.7 · 2 players
Bench-2.1 · 5 players
UMLSmall
Bench-0.7 · 1 player
Score, worst to bestHAMP betterUML betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Hampton
Guards
J. Mitchell33 min · TRS. Hubbard31 min · TRA. Davis24 min · TRE. Strothers19 minT. Jackson17 min · TRA. Haskins10 min
Forwards
M. Frazier29 min · TRC. Robinson26 min · TRP. Da CruzNewW. PrestonNewZ. IbekweNewS. TabeNew
UMass Lowell
Guards
C. Jones18 min · TRJ. Newton17 min · TRI. Walter8 minK. GilesNewJ. CannadyNewM. EllisNew
Forwards
V. Okojie18 minJ. Harris11 min · TRJ. Roberson7 minD. HandNewE. DialloNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
HAMPUML
Scoring
68.0 #312Points per game71.7 #253
1.02 #301Points per possession1.04 #272
66.5 #295Pace (possessions)68.9 #189
Shooting
45.7 #356Effective FG%49.8 #247
28.8 #3573-point %32.2 #269
37.0 #2293-point attempt rate31.3 #336
39.2 #73Free throw rate34.9 #183
Possessions
17.1 #205Turnover rate18.0 #269
32.9 #90Offensive rebound rate32.7 #98
11.2 #329Assists per game11.9 #294
Defense
72.1 #108Points allowed77.4 #249
1.08 #176Points allowed per possession1.13 #277
52.0 #212Opponent effective FG%53.5 #284
32.1 #65Opponent 3-point %34.6 #226
17.2 #137Turnovers forced14.2 #329
70.0 #165Defensive rebound rate70.7 #126
6.3 #207Steals per game5.1 #326
3.0 #232Blocks per game3.0 #222
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hampton

11-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Towson68–74
  • L@ William & Mary85–94
  • Wvs Northeastern76–65
  • Lvs Charleston71–85
  • L@ Stony Brook72–79

A week or more of rest.

UMass Lowell

12-18 in 2025-26 overall · 10-8 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ UMBC69–91
  • Wvs UAlbany81–76
  • W@ Maine67–56
  • Lvs UMBC60–84
  • L@ Vermont64–66

A week or more of rest.