1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 18
  3. OAK @ ASU
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 18

Oakland Golden Grizzlies at Arizona State Sun Devils

Desert Financial Arena · at Arizona St
#204OAKOakland
@
#60ASUArizona St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
OAKThis seasonASU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ASU 87–69 · win probability ASU 95%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 155.6
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ASU has more of the edges

OAK 2, ASU 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
ASUBig
ASU offense vs OAK defense
Offense 55th of 366 against a defense 266th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
OAK has played the 150th-hardest schedule, ASU the 13th. A record against a soft schedule means less
ASUSmall
OAK offense vs ASU defense
Offense 159th of 366 against a defense 60th, on the model’s ratings
OAKSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: OAK 38.1, ASU 39.5. Allowed: OAK 24.6, ASU 34.3
OAKSmall
Three-pointers
OAK hits 34.7% and allows 34.3%; ASU hits 33.4% and allows 35.0%. Threes are 34.0% and 38.4% of their shots
ASUSmall
Home court
ASU at home. This season: ASU 0-0 at home, OAK 0-0 away
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: OAK 31.3%, ASU 29.9%. Defensive: OAK 65.6%, ASU 65.1%
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: OAK 14.7%, ASU 17.1%. Forced: OAK 15.1%, ASU 18.4%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: OAK 20%, ASU 11%. Transfers in: OAK 5, ASU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: OAK plays 71.1 a game (67th fastest), ASU 70.6 (93rd). Faster games mean more points
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: OAK 52.7 and allows 54.7; ASU 51.1 and allows 52.4
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—ASU -18.6—
Total—155.6—
Projected score—OAK 68.5 · ASU 87.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadASU -11.0—
1H total72.7—
1H projected scoreOAK 30.9 · ASU 41.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Arizona St has the better starters

Position by position: Oakland 0, Arizona St 3, even 2
OaklandBetterArizona St
G N. Mashhour9 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.4 ast Score 22
ASUBig
G J. Foxwell TR15.8 pts · 4.3 reb · 6.4 ast Score 79
G B. Swartz TR7.7 pts · 4.5 reb · 0.3 ast Score 41
Even
G D. Shaw TR7.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 55
F B. El Shakery TR11.2 pts · 8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 59
Even
G E. Innocenti TR6 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.7 ast Score 58
F C. Fields TR9.1 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 79
ASUSmall
F P. Murauskas TR18.4 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 97
F J. Hill TR7 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.4 ast Score 16
ASUBig
C B. Defty TR15.1 pts · 6.8 reb · 1.9 ast Score 84
OaklandBetterArizona St
OAK offense159th of 366 · -4.8
ASUSmall
ASU defense60th of 366 · +1.2
OAK defense266th of 366 · -6.8
ASUBig
ASU offense55th of 366 · +3.2
Backcourt-3.2 · 2 players
ASUBig
Backcourt+1.0 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.2 · 3 players
ASUBig
Frontcourt+9.4 · 2 players
Bench-1.7 · 2 players
Even
Bench-0.9 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestOAK betterASU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Oakland
Guards
N. Mashhour28 minB. Swartz21 min · TRW. Marshall12 minR. Taylor11 min · TRW. KassiNewH. MashhourNew
Forwards
B. El Shakery27 min · TRC. Fields18 min · TRJ. Hill17 min · TRN. AhnerNewC. ThompsonNewI. TheodileNew
Arizona St
Guards
J. Foxwell36 min · TRD. Shaw28 min · TRE. Innocenti24 min · TRB. Ford22 minV. WallaceNewJ. CroyNew
Forwards
P. Murauskas33 min · TRA. NyuonNewM. VaughnsNew
Centers
B. Defty29 min · TRN. Garcia7 min · TRF. MalesevicNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
OAKASU
Scoring
81.6 #37Points per game76.3 #133
1.14 #66Points per possession1.08 #178
71.1 #67Pace (possessions)70.6 #93
Shooting
52.7 #114Effective FG%51.1 #190
34.7 #1313-point %33.4 #202
34.0 #2943-point attempt rate38.4 #201
38.1 #100Free throw rate39.5 #66
Possessions
14.7 #47Turnover rate17.1 #211
31.3 #152Offensive rebound rate29.9 #206
15.7 #60Assists per game13.7 #166
Defense
82.8 #344Points allowed78.3 #273
1.17 #340Points allowed per possession1.11 #239
54.7 #322Opponent effective FG%52.4 #235
34.3 #206Opponent 3-point %35.0 #249
15.1 #275Turnovers forced18.4 #77
65.6 #324Defensive rebound rate65.1 #337
7.2 #106Steals per game7.0 #122
3.7 #110Blocks per game4.6 #32
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Oakland

15-16 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs N Kentucky84–85
  • Lvs Detroit Mercy89–95
  • W@ IU Indy86–74
  • Wvs Milwaukee81–70
  • Lvs Green Bay68–73

A week or more of rest.

Arizona St

17-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Iowa State42–91
  • Wvs Baylor83–79
  • L@ Iowa State65–86
  • Wvs Kansas70–60
  • Wvs Utah73–60

A week or more of rest.