1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 18
  3. ALCN @ MIZ
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 18

Alcorn State Braves at Missouri Tigers

Mizzou Arena · at Missouri
#360ALCNAlcorn St
@
#54MIZMissouri
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
ALCNThis seasonMIZ
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIZ 90–58 · win probability MIZ 100%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 148.3
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIZ has more of the edges

ALCN 1, MIZ 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MIZBig
MIZ offense vs ALCN defense
Offense 52nd of 366 against a defense 354th, on the model’s ratings
MIZBig
ALCN offense vs MIZ defense
Offense 350th of 366 against a defense 49th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
ALCN has played the 266th-hardest schedule, MIZ the 45th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MIZBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: ALCN 47.7 and allows 55.0; MIZ 55.0 and allows 51.5
MIZBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ALCN 26.9%, MIZ 34.9%. Defensive: ALCN 64.5%, MIZ 68.3%
MIZBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: ALCN 31.8, MIZ 42.1. Allowed: ALCN 39.4, MIZ 35.5
ALCNSmall
Three-pointers
ALCN hits 33.3% and allows 33.0%; MIZ hits 35.0% and allows 36.8%. Threes are 33.7% and 36.4% of their shots
MIZSmall
Home court
MIZ at home. This season: MIZ 0-0 at home, ALCN 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ALCN 11%, MIZ 33%. Transfers in: ALCN 5, MIZ 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: ALCN plays 69.7 a game (138th fastest), MIZ 68.8 (191st). Faster games mean more points
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ALCN 19.6%, MIZ 17.7%. Forced: ALCN 18.1%, MIZ 16.6%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MIZ -32.1—
Total—148.3—
Projected score—ALCN 58.1 · MIZ 90.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMIZ -19.0—
1H total69.4—
1H projected scoreALCN 25.2 · MIZ 44.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Missouri has the better starters

Position by position: Alcorn St 0, Missouri 2, even 3
Alcorn StBetterMissouri
G T. Thomas9 pts · 3 reb · 1 ast Not ranked
No call
G J. Crawford TR14.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 44
G J. Felton TR1.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G C. Stansberry TR14.6 pts · 4 reb · 2 ast Score 69
G B. Thomas TR3 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G K. Davis TR8.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 48
F M. Taylor TR3.3 pts · 2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 4
MIZBig
G T. Pierce10.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 80
C C. Richardson TR6.5 pts · 2.4 reb · 0 ast Score 45
MIZSmall
F B. Tiller TR7.9 pts · 6.1 reb · 1 ast Score 68
Alcorn StBetterMissouri
ALCN offense350th of 366 · -12.5
MIZBig
MIZ defense49th of 366 · +2.0
ALCN defense354th of 366 · -9.9
MIZBig
MIZ offense52nd of 366 · +3.3
Backcourt-1.9 · 3 players
MIZSmall
Backcourt-0.0 · 4 players
Frontcourt-1.8 · 2 players
MIZSmall
Frontcourt+0.8 · 1 player
Bench-0.6 · 1 player
MIZSmall
Bench+2.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestALCN betterMIZ betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Alcorn St
Guards
T. Thomas22 minJ. Felton14 min · TRB. Thomas7 min · TRS. SunderlandNewJ. PowellNewJ. CraineNew
Forwards
M. Taylor14 min · TRJ. Walker5 min · TRB. CannonNewN. ThomasNew
Centers
C. Richardson15 min · TRA. TokpahNew
Missouri
Guards
J. Crawford32 min · TRC. Stansberry30 min · TRK. Davis30 min · TRT. Pierce28 minJ. Jones26 min · TRA. Boateng12 min
Forwards
B. Tiller26 min · TRJ. Carey18 min · TRL. Northweather12 minN. Randall6 minT. BryantNew
Centers
T. Burns9 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ALCNMIZ
Scoring
66.9 #335Points per game79.2 #78
0.96 #352Points per possession1.15 #65
69.7 #138Pace (possessions)68.8 #191
Shooting
47.7 #320Effective FG%55.0 #36
33.3 #2093-point %35.0 #112
33.7 #3033-point attempt rate36.4 #240
31.8 #259Free throw rate42.1 #28
Possessions
19.6 #340Turnover rate17.7 #255
26.9 #297Offensive rebound rate34.9 #48
11.1 #333Assists per game14.2 #132
Defense
80.2 #322Points allowed75.5 #204
1.15 #324Points allowed per possession1.10 #224
55.0 #330Opponent effective FG%51.5 #183
33.0 #120Opponent 3-point %36.8 #341
18.1 #92Turnovers forced16.6 #182
64.5 #347Defensive rebound rate68.3 #238
7.7 #63Steals per game6.6 #162
3.4 #162Blocks per game3.5 #140
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Alcorn St

9-23 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Prairie View56–65
  • Wvs Alabama St77–65
  • Lvs AR-Pine Bluff48–83
  • Wvs Miss Valley St67–64
  • L@ Prairie View51–72

A week or more of rest.

Missouri

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Miami66–80
  • Lvs Kentucky72–78
  • Lvs Arkansas84–88
  • L@ Oklahoma64–80
  • W@ Mississippi St88–64

A week or more of rest.