1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 24
  3. EVAN @ MIZ
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 24

Evansville Purple Aces at Missouri Tigers

Mizzou Arena · at Missouri
#256EVANEvansville
@
#54MIZMissouri
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
EVANThis seasonMIZ
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIZ 85–63 · win probability MIZ 97%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 148.2
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIZ has more of the edges

EVAN 0, MIZ 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MIZBig
EVAN offense vs MIZ defense
Offense 277th of 366 against a defense 49th, on the model’s ratings
MIZBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: EVAN 49.3 and allows 55.1; MIZ 55.0 and allows 51.5
MIZBig
MIZ offense vs EVAN defense
Offense 52nd of 366 against a defense 220th, on the model’s ratings
MIZBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: EVAN 22.0%, MIZ 34.9%. Defensive: EVAN 69.8%, MIZ 68.3%
MIZSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: EVAN 29.8, MIZ 42.1. Allowed: EVAN 31.4, MIZ 35.5
MIZSmall
Three-pointers
EVAN hits 32.3% and allows 37.6%; MIZ hits 35.0% and allows 36.8%. Threes are 43.1% and 36.4% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
EVAN has played the 127th-hardest schedule, MIZ the 45th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MIZSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: EVAN 19.1%, MIZ 17.7%. Forced: EVAN 15.4%, MIZ 16.6%
MIZSmall
Home court
MIZ at home. This season: MIZ 0-0 at home, EVAN 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: EVAN plays 67.9 a game (232nd fastest), MIZ 68.8 (191st). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: EVAN 35%, MIZ 33%. Transfers in: EVAN 2, MIZ 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MIZ -22.3—
Total—148.2—
Projected score—EVAN 62.9 · MIZ 85.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMIZ -13.1—
1H total69.3—
1H projected scoreEVAN 28.1 · MIZ 41.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Missouri has the better starters

Position by position: Evansville 1, Missouri 2, even 2
EvansvilleBetterMissouri
G B. Quinet8.6 pts · 2 reb · 2.4 ast Score 31
Even
G J. Crawford TR14.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 44
G M. Langenfeld TR2.6 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked
No call
G C. Stansberry TR14.6 pts · 4 reb · 2 ast Score 69
F A. Casey13.9 pts · 6 reb · 2 ast Score 86
EVANBig
G K. Davis TR8.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 48
F G. Winther TR7.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 0.9 ast Score 51
MIZSmall
G T. Pierce10.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 80
F J. Dyson-Merwe2.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 8
MIZBig
F B. Tiller TR7.9 pts · 6.1 reb · 1 ast Score 68
EvansvilleBetterMissouri
EVAN offense277th of 366 · -8.5
MIZBig
MIZ defense49th of 366 · +2.0
EVAN defense220th of 366 · -5.7
MIZBig
MIZ offense52nd of 366 · +3.3
Backcourt-2.2 · 2 players
MIZSmall
Backcourt-0.0 · 4 players
Frontcourt+0.8 · 3 players
Even
Frontcourt+0.8 · 1 player
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench+2.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestEVAN betterMIZ betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Evansville
Guards
B. Quinet27 minM. Langenfeld7 min · TRM. RiekNewL. EllspermannNewA. GutmanNewR. MasumyanNew
Forwards
A. Casey30 minG. Winther22 min · TRJ. Dyson-Merwe13 minD. NejezchlebNewY. PinasNewJ. GenschawNew
Missouri
Guards
J. Crawford32 min · TRC. Stansberry30 min · TRK. Davis30 min · TRT. Pierce28 minJ. Jones26 min · TRA. Boateng12 min
Forwards
B. Tiller26 min · TRJ. Carey18 min · TRL. Northweather12 minN. Randall6 minT. BryantNew
Centers
T. Burns9 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
EVANMIZ
Scoring
65.8 #347Points per game79.2 #78
0.97 #344Points per possession1.15 #65
67.9 #232Pace (possessions)68.8 #191
Shooting
49.3 #280Effective FG%55.0 #36
32.3 #2683-point %35.0 #112
43.1 #1093-point attempt rate36.4 #240
29.8 #315Free throw rate42.1 #28
Possessions
19.1 #324Turnover rate17.7 #255
22.0 #355Offensive rebound rate34.9 #48
12.6 #245Assists per game14.2 #132
Defense
78.3 #275Points allowed75.5 #204
1.15 #329Points allowed per possession1.10 #224
55.1 #332Opponent effective FG%51.5 #183
37.6 #351Opponent 3-point %36.8 #341
15.4 #258Turnovers forced16.6 #182
69.8 #170Defensive rebound rate68.3 #238
5.0 #335Steals per game6.6 #162
3.3 #171Blocks per game3.5 #140
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Evansville

5-25 in 2025-26 overall · 3-18 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Northern Iowa59–68
  • Lvs S Illinois67–81
  • Wvs Valparaiso80–79
  • L@ Belmont64–98
  • L@ Murray St75–88

A week or more of rest.

Missouri

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Miami66–80
  • Lvs Kentucky72–78
  • Lvs Arkansas84–88
  • L@ Oklahoma64–80
  • W@ Mississippi St88–64

A week or more of rest.