1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 24
  3. IDST @ BOIS
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 24

Idaho State Bengals at Boise State Broncos

ExtraMile Arena · at Boise St
#344IDSTIdaho St
@
#86BOISBoise St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
IDSTThis seasonBOIS
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOIS 86–63 · win probability BOIS 98%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 149.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BOIS has more of the edges

IDST 0, BOIS 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
BOISBig
BOIS offense vs IDST defense
Offense 94th of 366 against a defense 349th, on the model’s ratings
BOISBig
IDST offense vs BOIS defense
Offense 324th of 366 against a defense 74th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
IDST has played the 295th-hardest schedule, BOIS the 82nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
BOISBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: IDST 38.0, BOIS 42.7. Allowed: IDST 38.0, BOIS 32.1
BOISSmall
Home court
BOIS at home. This season: BOIS 0-0 at home, IDST 0-0 away
BOISSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: IDST 6%, BOIS 34%. Transfers in: IDST 1, BOIS 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: IDST 51.9 and allows 54.5; BOIS 52.2 and allows 52.6
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: IDST 32.8%, BOIS 33.2%. Defensive: IDST 72.1%, BOIS 76.4%
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: IDST plays 67.3 a game (266th fastest), BOIS 68.3 (215th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Three-pointers
IDST hits 33.6% and allows 34.5%; BOIS hits 34.3% and allows 34.4%. Threes are 41.9% and 43.1% of their shots
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: IDST 17.1%, BOIS 16.9%. Forced: IDST 14.6%, BOIS 14.6%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—BOIS -23.0—
Total—149.0—
Projected score—IDST 63 · BOIS 86

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadBOIS -13.6—
1H total69.7—
1H projected scoreIDST 28.1 · BOIS 41.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Idaho St 0, Boise St 0, even 5
Idaho StBetterBoise St
G L. Birley0.5 pts · 0.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G D. Wheeler-Thomas TR14.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.7 ast Score 67
G E. Harel TR0 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
G L. Washington TR9.6 pts · 4.7 reb · 5.1 ast Score 76
G A. Goffe NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
F D. Butka TR13.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 2.6 ast Score 66
G J. Dorsey NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
F J. Stanback TR8.7 pts · 5.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 62
F Q. Patterson0.9 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
F P. Carmichael7.8 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 59
Idaho StBetterBoise St
IDST offense324th of 366 · -10.6
BOISBig
BOIS defense74th of 366 · +0.7
IDST defense349th of 366 · -9.6
BOISBig
BOIS offense94th of 366 · -0.5
Backcourt-0.3 · 4 players
BOISSmall
Backcourt+1.4 · 2 players
Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player
BOISSmall
Frontcourt+1.3 · 3 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-2.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestIDST betterBOIS betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Idaho St
Guards
L. Birley4 minE. Harel1 min · TRA. GoffeNewJ. DorseyNewM. MorrisNewT. VirgilNew
Forwards
Q. Patterson7 minM. JohnsonNewI. PalmerNewK. DeMuynckNewM. JohnsonNewB. LowenbachNew
Boise St
Guards
D. Wheeler-Thomas31 min · TRL. Washington29 min · TRA. Neto19 minJ. Bowie5 minR. Bergersen2 minB. Ramirez2 min
Forwards
D. Butka34 min · TRJ. Stanback25 min · TRP. Carmichael19 minS. Ahrens13 minB. Buom5 minE. Lathan2 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
IDSTBOIS
Scoring
73.6 #213Points per game77.4 #108
1.10 #135Points per possession1.13 #82
67.3 #266Pace (possessions)68.3 #215
Shooting
51.9 #151Effective FG%52.2 #138
33.6 #1923-point %34.3 #151
41.9 #1373-point attempt rate43.1 #114
38.0 #104Free throw rate42.7 #23
Possessions
17.1 #213Turnover rate16.9 #195
32.8 #94Offensive rebound rate33.2 #85
11.8 #302Assists per game12.4 #258
Defense
77.6 #255Points allowed73.2 #137
1.14 #314Points allowed per possession1.08 #145
54.5 #315Opponent effective FG%52.6 #250
34.5 #220Opponent 3-point %34.4 #213
14.6 #316Turnovers forced14.6 #317
72.1 #63Defensive rebound rate76.4 #3
5.2 #322Steals per game4.6 #350
4.0 #78Blocks per game2.1 #339
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Idaho St

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 6-14 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Portland St78–85
  • Wvs N Arizona73–65
  • L@ Sacramento St65–83
  • Lvs Weber St73–83
  • Wvs Montana St91–76

A week or more of rest.

Boise St

19-11 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs San José St74–84
  • W@ Colorado St78–67
  • Wvs San Diego St86–77
  • W@ Fresno St69–53
  • Wvs Wyoming72–62

A week or more of rest.