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  2. Tue, Nov 24
  3. UNCG @ UCSB
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 24

UNC Greensboro Spartans at UC Santa Barbara Gauchos

The Thunderdome · at Santa Barbara
#284UNCGUNC Greensboro
@
#134UCSBSanta Barbara
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UNCGThis seasonUCSB
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UCSB 81–68 · win probability UCSB 88%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 148.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UCSB has more of the edges

UNCG 1, UCSB 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UNCGBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: UNCG 42.0, UCSB 36.8. Allowed: UNCG 30.6, UCSB 42.4
UCSBBig
UCSB offense vs UNCG defense
Offense 150th of 366 against a defense 299th, on the model’s ratings
UCSBBig
UNCG offense vs UCSB defense
Offense 260th of 366 against a defense 128th, on the model’s ratings
UCSBBig
Three-pointers
UNCG hits 35.6% and allows 38.0%; UCSB hits 37.4% and allows 33.9%. Threes are 40.2% and 44.1% of their shots
UCSBSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UNCG 52.0 and allows 56.2; UCSB 54.7 and allows 52.6
UCSBSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UNCG 28.1%, UCSB 31.0%. Defensive: UNCG 71.0%, UCSB 74.5%
UCSBSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UNCG 5%, UCSB 53%. Transfers in: UNCG 6, UCSB 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
UNCG has played the 256th-hardest schedule, UCSB the 203rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
UCSBSmall
Home court
UCSB at home. This season: UCSB 0-0 at home, UNCG 0-0 away
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UNCG 15.0%, UCSB 18.8%. Forced: UNCG 13.6%, UCSB 16.8%
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: UNCG plays 69.3 a game (157th fastest), UCSB 68.2 (218th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UCSB -13.3—
Total—148.7—
Projected score—UNCG 67.7 · UCSB 81

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUCSB -7.8—
1H total69.5—
1H projected scoreUNCG 30.9 · UCSB 38.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Santa Barbara has the better starters

Position by position: UNC Greensboro 0, Santa Barbara 2, even 3
UNC GreensboroBetterSanta Barbara
G B. Stacker TR11.9 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 47
Even
G V. Vartiainen TR12.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 52
G C. Grant TR2.2 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 9
UCSBBig
G M. Little12.7 pts · 5.6 reb · 4.8 ast Score 91
F Z. Fitch TR6.1 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 31
UCSBSmall
G C. Shaw11.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62
F V. Collins TR1 pts · 3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G R. Smith TR6.6 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.4 ast Score 43
F A. Beljan TR2.2 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
No call
C E. Dibami TR9.5 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.4 ast Score 45
UNC GreensboroBetterSanta Barbara
UNCG offense260th of 366 · -8.0
UCSBBig
UCSB defense128th of 366 · -2.3
UNCG defense299th of 366 · -7.7
UCSBBig
UCSB offense150th of 366 · -4.5
Backcourt-2.1 · 2 players
UCSBBig
Backcourt+1.4 · 4 players
Frontcourt-1.9 · 3 players
UCSBSmall
Frontcourt-0.1 · 1 player
Bench-0.5 · 3 players
UNCGSmall
Bench-3.2 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUNCG betterUCSB betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UNC Greensboro
Guards
B. Stacker29 min · TRC. Grant11 min · TRC. Bailey6 minR. Greer6 min · TRB. MishakNewJ. ManiNew
Forwards
Z. Fitch23 min · TRV. Collins7 min · TRA. Beljan7 min · TRC. Bynum4 minC. LaFrentzNew
Santa Barbara
Guards
V. Vartiainen31 min · TRM. Little30 minC. Shaw29 minR. Smith28 min · TRM. McGhee21 minL. Zuffelato4 min
Forwards
A. Chol24 min · TRM. Simcoe9 minD. Duru7 min · TRK. Keat Tong6 minK. Haughy2 minJ. Simcoe2 min
Centers
E. Dibami29 min · TRM. John WuolNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UNCGUCSB
Scoring
76.6 #128Points per game76.7 #127
1.11 #125Points per possession1.13 #87
69.3 #157Pace (possessions)68.2 #218
Shooting
52.0 #146Effective FG%54.7 #47
35.6 #803-point %37.4 #23
40.2 #1653-point attempt rate44.1 #87
42.0 #31Free throw rate36.8 #134
Possessions
15.0 #63Turnover rate18.8 #312
28.1 #259Offensive rebound rate31.0 #165
12.1 #283Assists per game14.1 #140
Defense
81.9 #341Points allowed73.7 #148
1.18 #347Points allowed per possession1.08 #156
56.2 #347Opponent effective FG%52.6 #244
38.0 #357Opponent 3-point %33.9 #177
13.6 #343Turnovers forced16.8 #170
71.0 #104Defensive rebound rate74.5 #14
5.5 #301Steals per game6.2 #216
1.9 #350Blocks per game2.3 #322
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UNC Greensboro

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Furman75–81
  • Wvs Wofford75–72
  • Wvs VMI84–70
  • L@ Samford78–87
  • W@ Chattanooga85–80

A week or more of rest.

Santa Barbara

16-14 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UC Davis73–79
  • Lvs UC San Diego63–64
  • L@ UC Irvine60–64
  • Wvs UC Riverside70–59
  • L@ Hawai'i75–78

A week or more of rest.