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  2. Tue, Nov 24
  3. COFC vs UTEP
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 24

Charleston Cougars vs UTEP Miners

Hard Rock Hotel Riviera Maya · Neutral site
#117COFCCharleston
vs
#190UTEPUTEP
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
COFCThis seasonUTEP
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects COFC 77–71 · win probability COFC 71%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 147.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: COFC has more of the edges

COFC 5, UTEP 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
COFCBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: COFC 41.2, UTEP 33.4. Allowed: COFC 26.1, UTEP 42.0
COFCSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: COFC 50.5 and allows 49.2; UTEP 48.3 and allows 51.5
COFCSmall
UTEP offense vs COFC defense
Offense 226th of 366 against a defense 143rd, on the model’s ratings
COFCSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: COFC 29.9%, UTEP 26.2%. Defensive: COFC 67.7%, UTEP 67.2%
COFCSmall
COFC offense vs UTEP defense
Offense 108th of 366 against a defense 173rd, on the model’s ratings
UTEPSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: COFC 15.7%, UTEP 17.4%. Forced: COFC 14.8%, UTEP 18.0%
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: COFC plays 68.8 a game (192nd fastest), UTEP 66.6 (291st). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: COFC 21%, UTEP 0%. Transfers in: COFC 8, UTEP 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
COFC has played the 200th-hardest schedule, UTEP the 163rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Three-pointers
COFC hits 30.6% and allows 32.6%; UTEP hits 33.9% and allows 34.0%. Threes are 38.1% and 40.3% of their shots
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—COFC -6.3—
Total—147.6—
Projected score—COFC 76.9 · UTEP 70.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadCOFC -3.9—
1H total69.0—
1H projected scoreCOFC 36.4 · UTEP 32.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Charleston has the better starters

Position by position: Charleston 3, UTEP 1, even 1
CharlestonBetterUTEP
G T. Johnson TR19.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 5 ast Score 96
COFCBig
G L. Moeller TR11.1 pts · 3.7 reb · 3.7 ast Score 46
G B. Bradford TR13.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 77
COFCBig
G J. Whiting TR10.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.4 ast Score 31
G E. Ellis TR8.6 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 61
Even
G R. Miller TR12.3 pts · 2.6 reb · 2.5 ast Score 66
G M. Kalu8.8 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 33
UTEPSmall
G R. Jackson TR6.7 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 53
G X. Abreu TR12.6 pts · 2.7 reb · 1 ast Score 83
COFCBig
F R. Cason TR3.9 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 43
CharlestonBetterUTEP
COFC offense108th of 366 · -1.6
COFCSmall
UTEP defense173rd of 366 · -3.9
COFC defense143rd of 366 · -3.1
COFCSmall
UTEP offense226th of 366 · -6.9
Backcourt+5.0 · 5 players
COFCBig
Backcourt-3.1 · 4 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt-0.4 · 1 player
Bench-2.7 · 5 players
UTEPSmall
Bench-1.1 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestCOFC betterUTEP betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Charleston
Guards
T. Johnson32 min · TRB. Bradford28 min · TRE. Ellis27 min · TRM. Kalu27 minX. Abreu21 min · TRM. Green15 min · TR
Forwards
T. Scott21 min · TRW. Mortimore9 minN. VirginioNew
Centers
B. Pierce7 min · TR
UTEP
Guards
L. Moeller33 min · TRJ. Whiting32 min · TRR. Miller25 min · TRR. Jackson18 min · TRC. McDanielsNewD. CrissNew
Forwards
R. Cason15 min · TRA. Cassia10 min · TRJ. Ratowski7 min · TRM. KelvinNewI. WardNewI. PerasovicNew
Centers
D. TarpleyNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
COFCUTEP
Scoring
75.3 #157Points per game66.4 #340
1.09 #155Points per possession1.00 #326
68.8 #192Pace (possessions)66.6 #291
Shooting
50.5 #212Effective FG%48.3 #309
30.6 #3313-point %33.9 #178
38.1 #2133-point attempt rate40.3 #163
41.2 #43Free throw rate33.4 #227
Possessions
15.7 #118Turnover rate17.4 #229
29.9 #204Offensive rebound rate26.2 #319
13.5 #180Assists per game11.0 #338
Defense
73.9 #153Points allowed72.7 #125
1.08 #146Points allowed per possession1.09 #196
49.2 #74Opponent effective FG%51.5 #187
32.6 #90Opponent 3-point %34.0 #182
14.8 #308Turnovers forced18.0 #98
67.7 #273Defensive rebound rate67.2 #293
5.7 #280Steals per game7.1 #113
4.6 #29Blocks per game3.5 #149
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Charleston

20-11 in 2025-26 overall · 14-5 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Towson56–81
  • W@ UNC Wilmington79–76
  • W@ Hampton85–71
  • Wvs Monmouth74–63
  • W@ NC A&T74–61

A week or more of rest.

UTEP

8-20 in 2025-26 overall · 7-13 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Jax State61–64
  • Wvs Kennesaw St78–71
  • L@ Western KY65–97
  • L@ MTSU67–77
  • L@ New Mexico St63–67

A week or more of rest.