1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 27
  3. DRKE vs BOIS
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 27

Drake Bulldogs vs Boise State Broncos

Mountain America Center · Neutral site
#144DRKEDrake
vs
#86BOISBoise St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
DRKEThis seasonBOIS
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOIS 78–70 · win probability BOIS 77%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 147.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BOIS has more of the edges

DRKE 1, BOIS 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
BOISBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DRKE 26.6%, BOIS 33.2%. Defensive: DRKE 70.1%, BOIS 76.4%
BOISSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: DRKE 33.5, BOIS 42.7. Allowed: DRKE 32.0, BOIS 32.1
BOISSmall
DRKE offense vs BOIS defense
Offense 168th of 366 against a defense 74th, on the model’s ratings
DRKESmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: DRKE 15.0%, BOIS 16.9%. Forced: DRKE 14.6%, BOIS 14.6%
BOISSmall
Three-pointers
DRKE hits 34.0% and allows 36.4%; BOIS hits 34.3% and allows 34.4%. Threes are 45.7% and 43.1% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
DRKE has played the 147th-hardest schedule, BOIS the 82nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
BOIS offense vs DRKE defense
Offense 94th of 366 against a defense 132nd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DRKE 51%, BOIS 34%. Transfers in: DRKE 3, BOIS 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: DRKE 51.4 and allows 52.6; BOIS 52.2 and allows 52.6
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: DRKE plays 68.4 a game (209th fastest), BOIS 68.3 (215th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—BOIS -8.4—
Total—147.8—
Projected score—DRKE 69.7 · BOIS 78.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadBOIS -4.9—
1H total69.1—
1H projected scoreDRKE 32.1 · BOIS 37—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Boise St has the better starters

Position by position: Drake 1, Boise St 3, even 1
DrakeBetterBoise St
G A. Alia6.8 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.4 ast Score 27
BOISBig
G D. Wheeler-Thomas TR14.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.7 ast Score 67
G O. Larson10 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 42
BOISSmall
G L. Washington TR9.6 pts · 4.7 reb · 5.1 ast Score 76
G E. Shetlar9 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 57
Even
F D. Butka TR13.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 2.6 ast Score 66
F G. Oldham TR5.5 pts · 7.5 reb · 1 ast Score 21
BOISBig
F J. Stanback TR8.7 pts · 5.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 62
F J. Carroll TR10.7 pts · 8.1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 78
DRKESmall
F P. Carmichael7.8 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 59
DrakeBetterBoise St
DRKE offense168th of 366 · -5.1
BOISSmall
BOIS defense74th of 366 · +0.7
DRKE defense132nd of 366 · -2.5
Even
BOIS offense94th of 366 · -0.5
Backcourt-3.7 · 3 players
BOISBig
Backcourt+1.4 · 2 players
Frontcourt-0.5 · 2 players
BOISSmall
Frontcourt+1.3 · 3 players
Bench+0.1 · 2 players
DRKESmall
Bench-2.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestDRKE betterBOIS betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Drake
Guards
A. Alia32 minO. Larson29 minE. Shetlar28 minD. Kindell17 min · TRD. IjadimbolaNewL. RushNew
Forwards
G. Oldham26 min · TRJ. Carroll25 min · TRG. Goodbary13 minJ. BurnsNewM. FlemonsNew
Boise St
Guards
D. Wheeler-Thomas31 min · TRL. Washington29 min · TRA. Neto19 minJ. Bowie5 minR. Bergersen2 minB. Ramirez2 min
Forwards
D. Butka34 min · TRJ. Stanback25 min · TRP. Carmichael19 minS. Ahrens13 minB. Buom5 minE. Lathan2 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
DRKEBOIS
Scoring
73.9 #200Points per game77.4 #108
1.08 #182Points per possession1.13 #82
68.4 #209Pace (possessions)68.3 #215
Shooting
51.4 #179Effective FG%52.2 #138
34.0 #1723-point %34.3 #151
45.7 #533-point attempt rate43.1 #114
33.5 #223Free throw rate42.7 #23
Possessions
15.0 #64Turnover rate16.9 #195
26.6 #310Offensive rebound rate33.2 #85
13.1 #202Assists per game12.4 #258
Defense
76.3 #225Points allowed73.2 #137
1.12 #261Points allowed per possession1.08 #145
52.6 #246Opponent effective FG%52.6 #250
36.4 #323Opponent 3-point %34.4 #213
14.6 #315Turnovers forced14.6 #317
70.1 #155Defensive rebound rate76.4 #3
5.2 #319Steals per game4.6 #350
2.9 #241Blocks per game2.1 #339
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Drake

12-20 in 2025-26 overall · 8-15 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UIC51–72
  • Wvs Belmont100–79
  • Wvs S Illinois67–63
  • Lvs Northern Iowa53–75
  • L@ Valparaiso71–74

A week or more of rest.

Boise St

19-11 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs San José St74–84
  • W@ Colorado St78–67
  • Wvs San Diego St86–77
  • W@ Fresno St69–53
  • Wvs Wyoming72–62

A week or more of rest.