1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 24
  3. UNCA @ FSU
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 24

UNC Asheville Bulldogs at Florida State Seminoles

Tucker Center · at Florida St
#271UNCAUNC Asheville
@
#81FSUFlorida St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UNCAThis seasonFSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FSU 84–64 · win probability FSU 96%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 148.2
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: FSU has more of the edges

UNCA 1, FSU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
FSUBig
UNCA offense vs FSU defense
Offense 294th of 366 against a defense 98th, on the model’s ratings
FSUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UNCA 17.4%, FSU 15.2%. Forced: UNCA 15.5%, FSU 19.0%
FSUBig
FSU offense vs UNCA defense
Offense 73rd of 366 against a defense 230th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
UNCA has played the 214th-hardest schedule, FSU the 73rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
UNCABig
Three-pointers
UNCA hits 35.1% and allows 32.6%; FSU hits 33.1% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 33.6% and 50.6% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: UNCA plays 68.0 a game (230th fastest), FSU 71.8 (41st). Faster games mean more points
FSUSmall
Home court
FSU at home. This season: FSU 0-0 at home, UNCA 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UNCA 30%, FSU 9%. Transfers in: UNCA 4, FSU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UNCA 29.8%, FSU 30.8%. Defensive: UNCA 68.7%, FSU 65.9%
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: UNCA 40.0, FSU 34.7. Allowed: UNCA 38.7, FSU 32.7
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: UNCA 51.0 and allows 51.3; FSU 52.3 and allows 52.2
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—FSU -20.4—
Total—148.2—
Projected score—UNCA 63.9 · FSU 84.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadFSU -12.0—
1H total69.3—
1H projected scoreUNCA 28.7 · FSU 40.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Florida St has the better starters

Position by position: UNC Asheville 0, Florida St 4, even 1
UNC AshevilleBetterFlorida St
G K. Phipps TR4.1 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 15
FSUBig
G K. Taylor TR19.8 pts · 5 reb · 2.9 ast Score 90
G K. Dunn TR7.2 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.7 ast Score 9
FSUBig
G A. Robinson TR8.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 3 ast Score 73
G J. Anderson TR1.7 pts · 3.3 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F S. Rancik TR12.3 pts · 5.6 reb · 2 ast Score 82
F M. Mayfield4 pts · 4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 5
FSUSmall
F C. Schwieger TR5.1 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.9 ast Score 32
F D. Thomas2.6 pts · 5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 5
FSUBig
F S. Abaev TR7 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 68
UNC AshevilleBetterFlorida St
UNCA offense294th of 366 · -9.1
FSUBig
FSU defense98th of 366 · -0.7
UNCA defense230th of 366 · -6.1
FSUBig
FSU offense73rd of 366 · +1.4
Backcourt-4.7 · 3 players
FSUBig
Backcourt+3.7 · 2 players
Frontcourt-5.8 · 2 players
FSUBig
Frontcourt+1.4 · 3 players
Bench-2.6 · 3 players
FSUSmall
Bench-0.2 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestUNCA betterFSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UNC Asheville
Guards
K. Phipps18 min · TRK. Dunn17 min · TRJ. Anderson17 min · TRC. Jones7 minT. ChatmanNewC. DubskyNew
Forwards
M. Mayfield23 minD. Thomas21 minA. Magassa10 min · TRS. Tolentino8 minB. RiversNewQ. MansfieldNew
Florida St
Guards
K. Taylor36 min · TRA. Robinson27 min · TRJ. Crawford1 minJ. LopezNewA. RobinsonNewB. BassNew
Forwards
S. Rancik28 min · TRC. Schwieger20 min · TRS. Abaev16 min · TRA. Swinton16 minC. PaulNew
Centers
M. PonderNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UNCAFSU
Scoring
71.9 #248Points per game80.4 #58
1.06 #236Points per possession1.12 #101
68.0 #230Pace (possessions)71.8 #41
Shooting
51.0 #194Effective FG%52.3 #132
35.1 #1103-point %33.1 #226
33.6 #3073-point attempt rate50.6 #13
40.0 #60Free throw rate34.7 #191
Possessions
17.4 #230Turnover rate15.2 #80
29.8 #211Offensive rebound rate30.8 #170
10.1 #358Assists per game14.3 #124
Defense
74.2 #161Points allowed77.9 #264
1.09 #203Points allowed per possession1.08 #178
51.3 #175Opponent effective FG%52.2 #226
32.6 #93Opponent 3-point %34.6 #228
15.5 #251Turnovers forced19.0 #51
68.7 #218Defensive rebound rate65.9 #319
5.1 #324Steals per game7.9 #44
3.5 #133Blocks per game3.9 #84
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UNC Asheville

12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 9-9 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs High Point71–75
  • Wvs Longwood85–82
  • Lvs Charleston So75–92
  • W@ Gardner-Webb77–71
  • Wvs Radford74–73

A week or more of rest.

Florida St

18-15 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Duke79–80
  • Wvs California95–89
  • Wvs SMU91–78
  • W@ Pitt75–74
  • W@ Georgia Tech80–71

A week or more of rest.