1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Dec 2
  3. UNCA @ LIP
NCAAB · Wed, Dec 2

UNC Asheville Bulldogs at Lipscomb Bisons

Allen Arena · at Lipscomb
#271UNCAUNC Asheville
@
#214LIPLipscomb
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UNCAThis seasonLIP
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LIP 76–70 · win probability LIP 73%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 145.9
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LIP has more of the edges

UNCA 0, LIP 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
LIPBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UNCA 17.4%, LIP 16.0%. Forced: UNCA 15.5%, LIP 17.7%
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: UNCA plays 68.0 a game (230th fastest), LIP 70.8 (83rd). Faster games mean more points
LIPSmall
UNCA offense vs LIP defense
Offense 294th of 366 against a defense 226th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
UNCA has played the 214th-hardest schedule, LIP the 267th. A record against a soft schedule means less
LIPSmall
Home court
LIP at home. This season: LIP 0-0 at home, UNCA 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
UNCA hits 35.1% and allows 32.6%; LIP hits 35.7% and allows 34.3%. Threes are 33.6% and 47.9% of their shots
Even
LIP offense vs UNCA defense
Offense 191st of 366 against a defense 230th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UNCA 29.8%, LIP 25.8%. Defensive: UNCA 68.7%, LIP 69.8%
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: UNCA 40.0, LIP 26.0. Allowed: UNCA 38.7, LIP 29.0
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UNCA 30%, LIP 44%. Transfers in: UNCA 4, LIP 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: UNCA 51.0 and allows 51.3; LIP 54.1 and allows 53.2
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—LIP -7.0—
Total—145.9—
Projected score—UNCA 69.5 · LIP 76.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadLIP -4.0—
1H total68.3—
1H projected scoreUNCA 32.1 · LIP 36.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Lipscomb has the better starters

Position by position: UNC Asheville 0, Lipscomb 2, even 3
UNC AshevilleBetterLipscomb
G K. Phipps TR4.1 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 15
LIPBig
G T. Simpkins TR12.5 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 79
G K. Dunn TR7.2 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.7 ast Score 9
LIPBig
G M. Esmeraldo9.8 pts · 3.9 reb · 6.9 ast Score 81
G J. Anderson TR1.7 pts · 3.3 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F T. Sargiunas9.9 pts · 2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 28
F M. Mayfield4 pts · 4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 5
Even
F O. Ashkenazi2.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 3
F D. Thomas2.6 pts · 5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 5
Even
F T. Byrne TR3.8 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 4
UNC AshevilleBetterLipscomb
UNCA offense294th of 366 · -9.1
LIPSmall
LIP defense226th of 366 · -6.0
UNCA defense230th of 366 · -6.1
Even
LIP offense191st of 366 · -5.9
Backcourt-4.7 · 3 players
LIPBig
Backcourt+3.0 · 2 players
Frontcourt-5.8 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt-6.7 · 3 players
Bench-2.6 · 3 players
LIPSmall
Bench-1.1 · 1 player
Score, worst to bestUNCA betterLIP betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UNC Asheville
Guards
K. Phipps18 min · TRK. Dunn17 min · TRJ. Anderson17 min · TRC. Jones7 minT. ChatmanNewC. DubskyNew
Forwards
M. Mayfield23 minD. Thomas21 minA. Magassa10 min · TRS. Tolentino8 minB. RiversNewQ. MansfieldNew
Lipscomb
Guards
T. Simpkins32 min · TRM. Esmeraldo31 minZ. WellsNewV. VisnjicNewH. TidareNewK. QuinnNew
Forwards
T. Sargiunas24 minO. Ashkenazi20 minT. Byrne16 min · TRK. Okpara13 minL. JackNewD. MartinNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UNCALIP
Scoring
71.9 #248Points per game77.6 #104
1.06 #236Points per possession1.10 #142
68.0 #230Pace (possessions)70.8 #83
Shooting
51.0 #194Effective FG%54.1 #67
35.1 #1103-point %35.7 #75
33.6 #3073-point attempt rate47.9 #24
40.0 #60Free throw rate26.0 #357
Possessions
17.4 #230Turnover rate16.0 #142
29.8 #211Offensive rebound rate25.8 #327
10.1 #358Assists per game17.2 #19
Defense
74.2 #161Points allowed77.0 #242
1.09 #203Points allowed per possession1.09 #187
51.3 #175Opponent effective FG%53.2 #273
32.6 #93Opponent 3-point %34.3 #207
15.5 #251Turnovers forced17.7 #113
68.7 #218Defensive rebound rate69.8 #171
5.1 #324Steals per game6.8 #141
3.5 #133Blocks per game2.6 #291
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UNC Asheville

12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 9-9 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs High Point71–75
  • Wvs Longwood85–82
  • Lvs Charleston So75–92
  • W@ Gardner-Webb77–71
  • Wvs Radford74–73

A week or more of rest.

Lipscomb

17-13 in 2025-26 overall · 12-7 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs FGCU53–77
  • W@ E Kentucky80–77
  • L@ West Georgia78–84
  • Wvs North Alabama73–51
  • W@ Bellarmine75–72

A week or more of rest.