Georgia Southern Eagles at UNC Asheville Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 28, 2:00 PM ETKimmel Arena · at UNC Asheville

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: GA Southern and UNC Asheville
GASO	This season	UNCA
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNCA 77–73 · win probability UNCA 64%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 149.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNCA has more of the edges

GASO 1, UNCA 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

GASOBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: GASO 14.7%, UNCA 17.4%. Forced: GASO 18.7%, UNCA 15.5%

UNCASmall

Three-pointers

GASO hits 33.4% and allows 34.4%; UNCA hits 35.1% and allows 32.6%. Threes are 48.9% and 33.6% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: GASO plays 71.8 a game (42nd fastest), UNCA 68.0 (230th). Faster games mean more points

UNCASmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: GASO 28.8%, UNCA 29.8%. Defensive: GASO 64.8%, UNCA 68.7%

Context

Schedule so far

GASO has played the 279th-hardest schedule, UNCA the 214th. A record against a soft schedule means less

UNCASmall

UNCA offense vs GASO defense

Offense 294th of 366 against a defense 347th, on the model’s ratings

UNCASmall

Home court

UNCA at home. This season: UNCA 0-0 at home, GASO 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: GASO 16%, UNCA 30%. Transfers in: GASO 3, UNCA 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: GASO 39.6, UNCA 40.0. Allowed: GASO 41.4, UNCA 38.7

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: GASO 51.4 and allows 52.3; UNCA 51.0 and allows 51.3

Even

GASO offense vs UNCA defense

Offense 233rd of 366 against a defense 230th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UNCA -4.0	—
Total	—	149.1	—
Projected score	—	GASO 72.5 · UNCA 76.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNCA -2.3	—
1H total	69.7	—
1H projected score	GASO 33.7 · UNCA 36	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GASO WWWWL	17-17	50%	7-7	—
UNCA LLLWW	15-14	52%	5-7	—

Venue/role: GASO away; UNCA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
GASO UOOUU	19-15	56%	19-16
UNCA UOOOU	15-14	52%	12-17

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GASO	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
UNCA	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

GA Southern

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	@ UPST	No recent meeting
Dec 9	@ WOF	W79–57WO
Dec 12	vs UNCW	L84–92LO

UNC Asheville

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	@ LIP	W69–64LU
Dec 10	@ STMN	L59–80LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

GASO 1–0 UNCAGASO leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · GASO 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 8, 2025-26	UNCA 90 @ GASO 93	GASO -5.5	UNCA W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

GA Southern

35 games played

Straight up

19-16

54% wins

Against the spread

17-17

50% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-15

56% overs · avg +2.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

19-1654%

L W W L L L L W W W W W W W W L W L L L W L L L W L L L W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1750%

W L W W L L L W W L W W W W W L L L L L–L L L W L L L W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1556%

O O O U U U U U O O O U O O O O O U U O–U U O O U O U O O U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@ECU	L 89-92	+5.5	W +2.5	151.5	O 181
Nov 8	vsUNCA	W 93-90	-5.5	L −2.5	162.5	O 183
Nov 11	@FGCU	W 95-94	+3.5	W +4.5	163.5	O 189
Nov 18	@GT	L 66-68	+10.5	W +8.5	164.5	U 134
Nov 21	@FSU	L 72-98	+18.5	L −7.5	175.5	U 170
Nov 24	vsYSU	L 61-67	+1.5	L −4.5	163.5	U 128
Nov 25	vsUTSA	L 64-77	-3.5	L −16.5	160.5	U 141
Nov 29	vsHCU	W 80-62	-7.5	W +10.5	148.5	U 142
Dec 3	vsLT	W 77-69	-1.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 146
Dec 6	@GWEB	W 88-84	-10.5	L −6.5	162.5	O 172
Dec 13	@WGA	W 91-85	-3.5	W +2.5	154.5	O 176
Dec 18	vsGAST	W 90-67	-9.5	W +13.5	159.5	U 157
Dec 20	vsJMU	W 96-92	-2.5	W +1.5	153.5	O 188
Jan 1	@CCU	W 82-81	+1.5	W +2.5	157.5	O 163
Jan 3	@ODU	W 93-86	-1.5	W +5.5	161.5	O 179
Jan 10	@USA	L 71-87	+2.5	L −13.5	148.5	O 158
Jan 15	vsODU	W 87-84	-5.5	L −2.5	162.5	O 171
Jan 17	vsCCU	L 75-79	-6.5	L −10.5	157.5	U 154
Jan 22	vsARST	L 68-85	+1.5	L −15.5	172.5	U 153
Jan 24	vsTROY	L 78-83	+4.5	L −0.5	159.5	O 161
Jan 30	vsULM	W 79-76	—	—	—	—
Jan 31	@UL	L 60-69	-2.5	L −11.5	144.5	U 129
Feb 4	vsTXST	L 71-77	-4.5	L −10.5	151.5	U 148
Feb 11	vsAPP	L 65-81	+1.5	L −14.5	143.5	O 146
Feb 14	vsMRSH	W 101-87	+2.5	W +16.5	162.5	O 188
Feb 19	@GAST	L 64-66	-1.5	L −3.5	154.5	U 130
Feb 21	@APP	L 74-89	+7.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 163
Feb 25	@JMU	L 66-82	+5.5	L −10.5	153.5	U 148
Feb 27	@MRSH	W 99-82	+7.5	W +24.5	168.5	O 181
Mar 4	vsODU	W 88-84	-2.5	W +1.5	157.5	O 172
Mar 5	vsARST	W 80-77	+7.5	W +10.5	165.5	U 157
Mar 6	vsUSA	W 94-85	+4.5	W +13.5	149.5	O 179
Mar 7	vsCCU	W 96-72	+1.5	W +25.5	151.5	O 168
Mar 8	vsMRSH	W 82-78	+2.5	W +6.5	166.5	U 160
Mar 9	vsTROY	L 61-77	+5.5	L −10.5	152.5	U 138

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ECU

L 89-92

+2.5

UNCA

W 93-90

−2.5

FGCU

W 95-94

+4.5

L 66-68

+8.5

FSU

L 72-98

−7.5

YSU

L 61-67

−4.5

UTSA

L 64-77

−16.5

HCU

W 80-62

+10.5

W 77-69

+6.5

GWEB

W 88-84

−6.5

WGA

W 91-85

+2.5

GAST

W 90-67

+13.5

JMU

W 96-92

+1.5

CCU

W 82-81

+2.5

ODU

W 93-86

+5.5

USA

L 71-87

−13.5

ODU

W 87-84

−2.5

CCU

L 75-79

−10.5

ARST

L 68-85

−15.5

TROY

L 78-83

−0.5

L 60-69

−11.5

TXST

L 71-77

−10.5

APP

L 65-81

−14.5

MRSH

W 101-87

+16.5

GAST

L 64-66

−3.5

APP

L 74-89

−7.5

JMU

L 66-82

−10.5

MRSH

W 99-82

+24.5

ODU

W 88-84

+1.5

ARST

W 80-77

+10.5

USA

W 94-85

+13.5

CCU

W 96-72

+25.5

MRSH

W 82-78

+6.5

TROY

L 61-77

−10.5

covered 17didn’t cover 17avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ECU

L 89-92

+29.5

UNCA

W 93-90

+20.5

FGCU

W 95-94

+25.5

L 66-68

−30.5

FSU

L 72-98

−5.5

YSU

L 61-67

−35.5

UTSA

L 64-77

−19.5

HCU

W 80-62

−6.5

W 77-69

+0.5

GWEB

W 88-84

+9.5

WGA

W 91-85

+21.5

GAST

W 90-67

−2.5

JMU

W 96-92

+34.5

CCU

W 82-81

+5.5

ODU

W 93-86

+17.5

USA

L 71-87

+9.5

ODU

W 87-84

+8.5

CCU

L 75-79

−3.5

ARST

L 68-85

−19.5

TROY

L 78-83

+1.5

L 60-69

−15.5

TXST

L 71-77

−3.5

APP

L 65-81

+2.5

MRSH

W 101-87

+25.5

GAST

L 64-66

−24.5

APP

L 74-89

+15.5

JMU

L 66-82

−5.5

MRSH

W 99-82

+12.5

ODU

W 88-84

+14.5

ARST

W 80-77

−8.5

USA

W 94-85

+29.5

CCU

W 96-72

+16.5

MRSH

W 82-78

−6.5

TROY

L 61-77

−14.5

over 19under 15avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

UNC Asheville

29 games played

Straight up

12-17

41% wins

Against the spread

15-14

52% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-14

52% overs · avg −3 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-1741%

L L W L L W W L L L L L L W W L L W W L W W L L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1452%

L W L L L W W W W L L L W W W L W W W L W W L L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1452%

U O U O U U O U O U U O O U O O U O U O O O U U U O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@WICH	L 58-75	+6.5	L −10.5	157.5	U 133
Nov 8	@GASO	L 90-93	+5.5	W +2.5	162.5	O 183
Nov 11	vsLIP	W 69-64	-6.5	L −1.5	158.5	U 133
Nov 19	@WCU	L 73-80	-1.5	L −8.5	152.5	O 153
Nov 25	vsTNST	L 73-75	-5.5	L −7.5	164.5	U 148
Nov 30	vsAPP	W 67-55	-1.5	W +10.5	137.5	U 122
Dec 2	vsUNCG	W 82-77	-4.5	W +0.5	143.5	O 159
Dec 6	@NCSU	L 63-75	+28.5	W +16.5	155.5	U 138
Dec 10	vsM-OH	L 87-90	+6.5	W +3.5	152.5	O 177
Dec 13	vsSTMN	L 59-80	+3.5	L −17.5	148.5	U 139
Dec 21	@UAB	L 47-72	+13.5	L −11.5	151.5	U 119
Dec 31	vsHPU	L 69-87	+10.5	L −7.5	151.5	O 156
Jan 3	@CHSO	L 83-86	+4.5	W +1.5	151.5	O 169
Jan 7	vsLONG	W 72-61	-2.5	W +8.5	148.5	U 133
Jan 10	@RAD	W 91-72	+4.5	W +23.5	151.5	O 163
Jan 14	@PRES	L 70-71	-2.5	L −3.5	138.5	O 141
Jan 17	vsWIN	L 67-69	+5.5	W +3.5	152.5	U 136
Jan 21	@UPST	W 83-69	+1.5	W +15.5	145.5	O 152
Jan 29	vsGWEB	W 69-50	-17.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 119
Jan 31	@WIN	L 71-84	+9.5	L −3.5	147.5	O 155
Feb 4	vsUPST	W 76-67	-6.5	W +2.5	139.5	O 143
Feb 12	@LONG	W 79-74	+2.5	W +7.5	141.5	O 153
Feb 14	vsPRES	L 57-58	-5.5	L −6.5	137.5	U 115
Feb 19	@HPU	L 48-74	+14.5	L −11.5	152.5	U 122
Feb 21	vsRAD	W 74-73	-2.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 147
Feb 26	@GWEB	W 77-71	-12.5	L −6.5	145.5	O 148
Feb 28	vsCHSO	L 75-92	-4.5	L −21.5	148.5	O 167
Mar 6	vsLONG	W 85-82	+1.5	W +4.5	140.5	O 167
Mar 7	vsHPU	L 71-75	+14.5	W +10.5	147.5	U 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WICH

L 58-75

−10.5

GASO

L 90-93

+2.5

LIP

W 69-64

−1.5

WCU

L 73-80

−8.5

TNST

L 73-75

−7.5

APP

W 67-55

+10.5

UNCG

W 82-77

+0.5

NCSU

L 63-75

+16.5

M-OH

L 87-90

+3.5

STMN

L 59-80

−17.5

UAB

L 47-72

−11.5

HPU

L 69-87

−7.5

CHSO

L 83-86

+1.5

LONG

W 72-61

+8.5

RAD

W 91-72

+23.5

PRES

L 70-71

−3.5

WIN

L 67-69

+3.5

UPST

W 83-69

+15.5

GWEB

W 69-50

+1.5

WIN

L 71-84

−3.5

UPST

W 76-67

+2.5

LONG

W 79-74

+7.5

PRES

L 57-58

−6.5

HPU

L 48-74

−11.5

RAD

W 74-73

−1.5

GWEB

W 77-71

−6.5

CHSO

L 75-92

−21.5

LONG

W 85-82

+4.5

HPU

L 71-75

+10.5

covered 15didn’t cover 14avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WICH

L 58-75

−24.5

GASO

L 90-93

+20.5

LIP

W 69-64

−25.5

WCU

L 73-80

+0.5

TNST

L 73-75

−16.5

APP

W 67-55

−15.5

UNCG

W 82-77

+15.5

NCSU

L 63-75

−17.5

M-OH

L 87-90

+24.5

STMN

L 59-80

−9.5

UAB

L 47-72

−32.5

HPU

L 69-87

+4.5

CHSO

L 83-86

+17.5

LONG

W 72-61

−15.5

RAD

W 91-72

+11.5

PRES

L 70-71

+2.5

WIN

L 67-69

−16.5

UPST

W 83-69

+6.5

GWEB

W 69-50

−30.5

WIN

L 71-84

+7.5

UPST

W 76-67

+3.5

LONG

W 79-74

+11.5

PRES

L 57-58

−22.5

HPU

L 48-74

−30.5

RAD

W 74-73

−2.5

GWEB

W 77-71

+2.5

CHSO

L 75-92

+18.5

LONG

W 85-82

+26.5

HPU

L 71-75

−1.5

over 15under 14avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

GA Southern has the better starters

Position by position: GA Southern 1, UNC Asheville 0, even 4

GA SouthernBetterUNC Asheville

G J. Dixon TR9 pts · 1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 39

GASOSmall

G K. Phipps TR4.1 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 15

G D. Williams3.6 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 10

Even

G K. Dunn TR7.2 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.7 ast Score 9

G J. Williams1 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked

No call

G J. Anderson TR1.7 pts · 3.3 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

F T. Claytor TR6.5 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 8

Even

F M. Mayfield4 pts · 4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 5

F T. Sotirov2.5 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 1

Even

F D. Thomas2.6 pts · 5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 5

GA SouthernBetterUNC Asheville

GASO offense233rd of 366 · -7.2

Even

UNCA defense230th of 366 · -6.1

GASO defense347th of 366 · -9.4

Even

UNCA offense294th of 366 · -9.1

Backcourt-3.8 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt-4.7 · 3 players

Frontcourt-3.7 · 2 players

GASOSmall

Frontcourt-5.8 · 2 players

Bench-0.8 · 1 player

GASOSmall

Bench-2.6 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestGASO betterUNCA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

GA Southern

Guards

J. Dixon19 min · TRD. Williams12 minJ. Williams8 minD. GardnerNewA. HendersonNewR. WilliamsNew

Forwards

T. Claytor17 min · TRT. Sotirov11 minE. Smith6 min · TRC. CrissmanNewE. SavaneNewE. JamesNew

UNC Asheville

Guards

K. Phipps18 min · TRK. Dunn17 min · TRJ. Anderson17 min · TRC. Jones7 minT. ChatmanNewC. DubskyNew

Forwards

M. Mayfield23 minD. Thomas21 minA. Magassa10 min · TRS. Tolentino8 minB. RiversNewQ. MansfieldNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

GASO79.9 #69

UNCA71.9 #248

Points per possession

GASO1.12 #109

UNCA1.06 #236

Pace (possessions)

GASO71.8 #42

UNCA68.0 #230

Shooting

Effective FG%

GASO51.4 #176

UNCA51.0 #194

3-point %

GASO33.4 #207

UNCA35.1 #110

3-point attempt rate

GASO48.9 #20

UNCA33.6 #307

Free throw rate

GASO39.6 #62

UNCA40.0 #60

Possessions

Turnover rate

GASO14.7 #49

UNCA17.4 #230

Offensive rebound rate

GASO28.8 #238

UNCA29.8 #211

Assists per game

GASO10.7 #344

UNCA10.1 #358

Defense

Points allowed

GASO80.3 #325

UNCA74.2 #161

Points allowed per possession

GASO1.11 #259

UNCA1.09 #203

Opponent effective FG%

GASO52.3 #230

UNCA51.3 #175

Opponent 3-point %

GASO34.4 #208

UNCA32.6 #93

Turnovers forced

GASO18.7 #65

UNCA15.5 #251

Defensive rebound rate

GASO64.8 #342

UNCA68.7 #218

Steals per game

GASO8.1 #36

UNCA5.1 #324

Blocks per game

GASO3.6 #128

UNCA3.5 #133

GASO		UNCA
Scoring
79.9 #69	Points per game	71.9 #248
1.12 #109	Points per possession	1.06 #236
71.8 #42	Pace (possessions)	68.0 #230
Shooting
51.4 #176	Effective FG%	51.0 #194
33.4 #207	3-point %	35.1 #110
48.9 #20	3-point attempt rate	33.6 #307
39.6 #62	Free throw rate	40.0 #60
Possessions
14.7 #49	Turnover rate	17.4 #230
28.8 #238	Offensive rebound rate	29.8 #211
10.7 #344	Assists per game	10.1 #358
Defense
80.3 #325	Points allowed	74.2 #161
1.11 #259	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #203
52.3 #230	Opponent effective FG%	51.3 #175
34.4 #208	Opponent 3-point %	32.6 #93
18.7 #65	Turnovers forced	15.5 #251
64.8 #342	Defensive rebound rate	68.7 #218
8.1 #36	Steals per game	5.1 #324
3.6 #128	Blocks per game	3.5 #133

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

GA Southern

19-16 in 2025-26 overall · 13-11 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Troy61–77
Wvs Marshall82–78
Wvs Coastal96–72
Wvs South Alabama94–85
Wvs Arkansas St80–77

A week or more of rest.

UNC Asheville

12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 9-9 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs High Point71–75
Wvs Longwood85–82
Lvs Charleston So75–92
W@ Gardner-Webb77–71
Wvs Radford74–73

A week or more of rest.

Georgia Southern Eagles at UNC Asheville Bulldogs

What could decide it: UNCA has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

GA Southern

UNC Asheville

GA Southern has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

GA Southern

UNC Asheville