Alcorn State Braves at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 24, 7:30 PM ETThomas Assembly Center · at Louisiana Tech

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Alcorn St and Louisiana Tech
ALCN	This season	LT
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LT 77–64 · win probability LT 87%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 141.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LT has more of the edges

ALCN 1, LT 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

LTBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ALCN 26.9%, LT 36.4%. Defensive: ALCN 64.5%, LT 68.4%

LTBig

ALCN offense vs LT defense

Offense 350th of 366 against a defense 184th, on the model’s ratings

LTBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: ALCN 47.7 and allows 55.0; LT 47.4 and allows 48.7

ALCNSmall

Three-pointers

ALCN hits 33.3% and allows 33.0%; LT hits 28.6% and allows 33.9%. Threes are 33.7% and 33.4% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: ALCN plays 69.7 a game (138th fastest), LT 65.5 (332nd). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

ALCN has played the 266th-hardest schedule, LT the 197th. A record against a soft schedule means less

LTSmall

LT offense vs ALCN defense

Offense 302nd of 366 against a defense 354th, on the model’s ratings

LTSmall

Home court

LT at home. This season: LT 0-0 at home, ALCN 0-0 away

LTSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: ALCN 31.8, LT 33.1. Allowed: ALCN 39.4, LT 36.3

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ALCN 19.6%, LT 18.2%. Forced: ALCN 18.1%, LT 17.9%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ALCN 11%, LT 11%. Transfers in: ALCN 5, LT 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	LT -13.1	—
Total	—	141.1	—
Projected score	—	ALCN 64 · LT 77.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LT -7.6	—
1H total	66.0	—
1H projected score	ALCN 29.2 · LT 36.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ALCN LLLWL	18-14	56%	11-9	—
LT WWWWL	17-14	55%	8-6	—

Venue/role: ALCN away; LT home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
ALCN UUUOU	15-17	47%	9-23
LT OUOOU	16-15	52%	17-14

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ALCN	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
LT	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Alcorn St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 25	vs TXST	No recent meeting
Nov 28	@ GT	No recent meeting
Dec 1	@ ISU	L68–132LO

Louisiana Tech

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 27	vs TXST	No recent meeting
Dec 2	@ TXST	No recent meeting
Dec 6	@ JXST	W77–71WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

ALCN 0–1 LTLT leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · ALCN 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 29, 2025-26	ALCN 58 @ LT 83	LT -16.5	LT W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Alcorn St

32 games played

Straight up

9-23

28% wins

Against the spread

18-14

56% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-17

47% overs · avg −0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-2328%

L L L L L L L W L L L L L W L L W L L W L L W W L W L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1456%

L W L W L W W W L L L L W W L W W W W W L W W W L W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1747%

O O U O U O U O O O O U O U U U U U O O U O U U O U O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@FSU	L 76-108	+27.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 184
Nov 6	@USA	L 70-76	+18.5	W +12.5	141.5	O 146
Nov 8	@MINN	L 50-95	+31.5	L −13.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 11	@MD	L 64-84	+29.5	W +9.5	146.5	O 148
Nov 13	@HOW	L 64-72	+6.5	L −1.5	154.5	U 136
Nov 18	@LSU	L 81-107	+32.5	W +6.5	155.5	O 188
Nov 23	@OU	L 53-72	+31.5	W +12.5	160.5	U 125
Nov 28	vsINST	W 81-74	+12.5	W +19.5	152.5	O 155
Nov 29	@LT	L 58-83	+16.5	L −8.5	137.5	O 141
Dec 3	@ISU	L 68-132	+42.5	L −21.5	151.5	O 200
Dec 19	@BAY	L 56-113	+35.5	L −21.5	160.5	O 169
Dec 29	@MISS	L 43-79	+28.5	L −7.5	148.5	U 122
Jan 3	@JKST	L 86-89	+5.5	W +2.5	145.5	O 175
Jan 10	@AAMU	W 64-62	+9.5	W +11.5	140.5	U 126
Jan 12	@ALST	L 66-81	+9.5	L −5.5	151.5	U 147
Jan 17	vsTXSO	L 71-72	+1.5	W +0.5	146.5	U 143
Jan 19	vsPV	W 76-75	+2.5	W +3.5	152.5	U 151
Jan 24	@FAMU	L 58-66	+8.5	W +0.5	141.5	U 124
Jan 26	@BCU	L 73-82	+13.5	W +4.5	147.5	O 155
Jan 31	vsSOU	W 78-73	+7.5	W +12.5	147.5	O 151
Feb 2	vsGRAM	L 50-74	+5.5	L −18.5	143.5	U 124
Feb 7	@UAPB	L 77-84	+7.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 161
Feb 9	@MVSU	W 74-66	-5.5	W +2.5	140.5	U 140
Feb 14	vsBCU	W 57-55	+8.5	W +10.5	144.5	U 112
Feb 16	vsFAMU	L 78-86	+2.5	L −5.5	137.5	O 164
Feb 21	vsJKST	W 83-65	+1.5	W +19.5	149.5	U 148
Feb 26	@TXSO	L 87-92	+5.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 179
Feb 28	@PV	L 51-72	+4.5	L −16.5	150.5	U 123
Mar 3	vsMVSU	W 67-64	-9.5	L −6.5	139.5	U 131
Mar 5	vsUAPB	L 48-83	+1.5	L −33.5	145.5	U 131
Mar 9	vsALST	W 77-65	+7.5	W +19.5	141.5	O 142
Mar 10	vsPV	L 56-65	+6.5	L −2.5	142.5	U 121

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FSU

L 76-108

−4.5

USA

L 70-76

+12.5

MINN

L 50-95

−13.5

L 64-84

+9.5

HOW

L 64-72

−1.5

LSU

L 81-107

+6.5

L 53-72

+12.5

INST

W 81-74

+19.5

L 58-83

−8.5

ISU

L 68-132

−21.5

BAY

L 56-113

−21.5

MISS

L 43-79

−7.5

JKST

L 86-89

+2.5

AAMU

W 64-62

+11.5

ALST

L 66-81

−5.5

TXSO

L 71-72

+0.5

W 76-75

+3.5

FAMU

L 58-66

+0.5

BCU

L 73-82

+4.5

SOU

W 78-73

+12.5

GRAM

L 50-74

−18.5

UAPB

L 77-84

+0.5

MVSU

W 74-66

+2.5

BCU

W 57-55

+10.5

FAMU

L 78-86

−5.5

JKST

W 83-65

+19.5

TXSO

L 87-92

+0.5

L 51-72

−16.5

MVSU

W 67-64

−6.5

UAPB

L 48-83

−33.5

ALST

W 77-65

+19.5

L 56-65

−2.5

covered 18didn’t cover 14avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FSU

L 76-108

+27.5

USA

L 70-76

+4.5

MINN

L 50-95

−7.5

L 64-84

+1.5

HOW

L 64-72

−18.5

LSU

L 81-107

+32.5

L 53-72

−35.5

INST

W 81-74

+2.5

L 58-83

+3.5

ISU

L 68-132

+48.5

BAY

L 56-113

+8.5

MISS

L 43-79

−26.5

JKST

L 86-89

+29.5

AAMU

W 64-62

−14.5

ALST

L 66-81

−4.5

TXSO

L 71-72

−3.5

W 76-75

−1.5

FAMU

L 58-66

−17.5

BCU

L 73-82

+7.5

SOU

W 78-73

+3.5

GRAM

L 50-74

−19.5

UAPB

L 77-84

+15.5

MVSU

W 74-66

−0.5

BCU

W 57-55

−32.5

FAMU

L 78-86

+26.5

JKST

W 83-65

−1.5

TXSO

L 87-92

+33.5

L 51-72

−27.5

MVSU

W 67-64

−8.5

UAPB

L 48-83

−14.5

ALST

W 77-65

+0.5

L 56-65

−21.5

over 15under 17avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Louisiana Tech

31 games played

Straight up

17-14

55% wins

Against the spread

17-14

55% covers · avg +1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-15

52% overs · avg −2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1455%

L W L W W L W L W L L L W W L W W L L W W L W L W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1455%

L W L L W L W L W L W L L W W W W L L W W L W W L L W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1552%

U U U O O O U U O O U U O U U O U O U O O U O U O O O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@NEV	L 50-77	+9.5	L −17.5	136.5	U 127
Nov 15	vsJKST	W 68-51	-8.5	W +8.5	146.5	U 119
Nov 19	@INST	L 51-60	+3.5	L −5.5	147.5	U 111
Nov 26	vsINST	W 75-73	-2.5	L −0.5	141.5	O 148
Nov 29	vsALCN	W 83-58	-16.5	W +8.5	137.5	O 141
Dec 3	@GASO	L 69-77	+1.5	L −6.5	145.5	O 146
Dec 13	vsUL	W 65-44	-9.5	W +11.5	126.5	U 109
Dec 17	@TULN	L 53-61	+4.5	L −3.5	140.5	U 114
Dec 29	vsUTEP	W 75-63	-2.5	W +9.5	130.5	O 138
Jan 2	@MTSU	L 51-88	+6.5	L −30.5	134.5	O 139
Jan 4	@WKU	L 61-66	+9.5	W +4.5	145.5	U 127
Jan 8	vsLIB	L 56-72	+4.5	L −11.5	135.5	U 128
Jan 10	vsDEL	W 70-68	-6.5	L −4.5	123.5	O 138
Jan 14	vsMTSU	W 59-58	+3.5	W +4.5	131.5	U 117
Jan 17	@JXST	L 60-64	+4.5	W +0.5	127.5	U 124
Jan 23	vsKENN	W 82-76	+1.5	W +7.5	144.5	O 158
Jan 28	@UTEP	W 69-59	+2.5	W +12.5	130.5	U 128
Jan 31	@SHSU	L 67-83	+7.5	L −8.5	141.5	O 150
Feb 4	vsNMSU	L 63-72	-1.5	L −10.5	135.5	U 135
Feb 7	vsSHSU	W 87-78	+3.5	W +12.5	143.5	O 165
Feb 12	@MOST	W 79-78	+3.5	W +4.5	136.5	O 157
Feb 14	@FIU	L 64-77	+3.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 141
Feb 18	vsJXST	W 77-71	-2.5	W +3.5	132.5	O 148
Feb 21	@KENN	L 55-58	+5.5	W +2.5	147.5	U 113
Feb 26	vsMOST	W 72-70	-2.5	L −0.5	138.5	O 142
Feb 28	vsFIU	L 76-84	-2.5	L −10.5	145.5	O 160
Mar 5	@LIB	W 76-71	+8.5	W +13.5	136.5	O 147
Mar 7	@DEL	W 81-38	-2.5	W +40.5	132.5	U 119
Mar 12	vsMTSU	W 80-69	+1.5	W +12.5	134.5	O 149
Mar 13	vsMOST	W 69-66	+1.5	W +4.5	134.5	O 135
Mar 14	vsKENN	L 60-71	+1.5	L −9.5	142.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NEV

L 50-77

−17.5

JKST

W 68-51

+8.5

INST

L 51-60

−5.5

INST

W 75-73

−0.5

ALCN

W 83-58

+8.5

GASO

L 69-77

−6.5

W 65-44

+11.5

TULN

L 53-61

−3.5

UTEP

W 75-63

+9.5

MTSU

L 51-88

−30.5

WKU

L 61-66

+4.5

LIB

L 56-72

−11.5

DEL

W 70-68

−4.5

MTSU

W 59-58

+4.5

JXST

L 60-64

+0.5

KENN

W 82-76

+7.5

UTEP

W 69-59

+12.5

SHSU

L 67-83

−8.5

NMSU

L 63-72

−10.5

SHSU

W 87-78

+12.5

MOST

W 79-78

+4.5

FIU

L 64-77

−9.5

JXST

W 77-71

+3.5

KENN

L 55-58

+2.5

MOST

W 72-70

−0.5

FIU

L 76-84

−10.5

LIB

W 76-71

+13.5

DEL

W 81-38

+40.5

MTSU

W 80-69

+12.5

MOST

W 69-66

+4.5

KENN

L 60-71

−9.5

covered 17didn’t cover 14avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NEV

L 50-77

−9.5

JKST

W 68-51

−27.5

INST

L 51-60

−36.5

INST

W 75-73

+6.5

ALCN

W 83-58

+3.5

GASO

L 69-77

+0.5

W 65-44

−17.5

TULN

L 53-61

−26.5

UTEP

W 75-63

+7.5

MTSU

L 51-88

+4.5

WKU

L 61-66

−18.5

LIB

L 56-72

−7.5

DEL

W 70-68

+14.5

MTSU

W 59-58

−14.5

JXST

L 60-64

−3.5

KENN

W 82-76

+13.5

UTEP

W 69-59

−2.5

SHSU

L 67-83

+8.5

NMSU

L 63-72

−0.5

SHSU

W 87-78

+21.5

MOST

W 79-78

+20.5

FIU

L 64-77

−5.5

JXST

W 77-71

+15.5

KENN

L 55-58

−34.5

MOST

W 72-70

+3.5

FIU

L 76-84

+14.5

LIB

W 76-71

+10.5

DEL

W 81-38

−13.5

MTSU

W 80-69

+14.5

MOST

W 69-66

+0.5

KENN

L 60-71

−11.5

over 16under 15avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Alcorn St 0, Louisiana Tech 0, even 5

Alcorn StBetterLouisiana Tech

G T. Thomas9 pts · 3 reb · 1 ast Not ranked

No call

G J. Fenner5.3 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.8 ast Score 27

G J. Felton TR1.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

No call

G D. Bates NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

G B. Thomas TR3 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

No call

G K. Tilley NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

F M. Taylor TR3.3 pts · 2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 4

No call

F E. Blackmon NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

C C. Richardson TR6.5 pts · 2.4 reb · 0 ast Score 45

No call

F L. Rowe NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

Alcorn StBetterLouisiana Tech

ALCN offense350th of 366 · -12.5

LTBig

LT defense184th of 366 · -4.3

ALCN defense354th of 366 · -9.9

Even

LT offense302nd of 366 · -9.4

Backcourt-1.9 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt-1.6 · 3 players

Frontcourt-1.8 · 2 players

No call

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

Bench-0.6 · 1 player

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestALCN betterLT betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Alcorn St

Guards

T. Thomas22 minJ. Felton14 min · TRB. Thomas7 min · TRS. SunderlandNewJ. PowellNewJ. CraineNew

Forwards

M. Taylor14 min · TRJ. Walker5 min · TRB. CannonNewN. ThomasNew

Centers

C. Richardson15 min · TRA. TokpahNew

Louisiana Tech

Guards

J. Fenner22 minD. BatesNewK. TilleyNewJ. TylerNewJ. SandersonNewA. BoydNew

Forwards

E. BlackmonNewL. RoweNewB. WengerNewI. EmelifeNewI. FrancisNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ALCN66.9 #335

LT67.8 #318

Points per possession

ALCN0.96 #352

LT1.03 #284

Pace (possessions)

ALCN69.7 #138

LT65.5 #332

Shooting

Effective FG%

ALCN47.7 #320

LT47.4 #329

3-point %

ALCN33.3 #209

LT28.6 #359

3-point attempt rate

ALCN33.7 #303

LT33.4 #310

Free throw rate

ALCN31.8 #259

LT33.1 #234

Possessions

Turnover rate

ALCN19.6 #340

LT18.2 #283

Offensive rebound rate

ALCN26.9 #297

LT36.4 #21

Assists per game

ALCN11.1 #333

LT11.9 #297

Defense

Points allowed

ALCN80.2 #322

LT67.8 #30

Points allowed per possession

ALCN1.15 #324

LT1.04 #75

Opponent effective FG%

ALCN55.0 #330

LT48.7 #51

Opponent 3-point %

ALCN33.0 #120

LT33.9 #178

Turnovers forced

ALCN18.1 #92

LT17.9 #102

Defensive rebound rate

ALCN64.5 #347

LT68.4 #232

Steals per game

ALCN7.7 #63

LT6.8 #144

Blocks per game

ALCN3.4 #162

LT4.6 #31

ALCN		LT
Scoring
66.9 #335	Points per game	67.8 #318
0.96 #352	Points per possession	1.03 #284
69.7 #138	Pace (possessions)	65.5 #332
Shooting
47.7 #320	Effective FG%	47.4 #329
33.3 #209	3-point %	28.6 #359
33.7 #303	3-point attempt rate	33.4 #310
31.8 #259	Free throw rate	33.1 #234
Possessions
19.6 #340	Turnover rate	18.2 #283
26.9 #297	Offensive rebound rate	36.4 #21
11.1 #333	Assists per game	11.9 #297
Defense
80.2 #322	Points allowed	67.8 #30
1.15 #324	Points allowed per possession	1.04 #75
55.0 #330	Opponent effective FG%	48.7 #51
33.0 #120	Opponent 3-point %	33.9 #178
18.1 #92	Turnovers forced	17.9 #102
64.5 #347	Defensive rebound rate	68.4 #232
7.7 #63	Steals per game	6.8 #144
3.4 #162	Blocks per game	4.6 #31

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Alcorn St

9-23 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Prairie View56–65
Wvs Alabama St77–65
Lvs AR-Pine Bluff48–83
Wvs Miss Valley St67–64
L@ Prairie View51–72

A week or more of rest.

Louisiana Tech

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 13-10 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Kennesaw St60–71
Wvs Missouri St69–66
Wvs MTSU80–69
W@ Delaware81–38
W@ Liberty76–71

A week or more of rest.

Alcorn State Braves at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

What could decide it: LT has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Alcorn St

Louisiana Tech

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Alcorn St

Louisiana Tech